Shagdogy's MMA plays

JuicedUp · 06-29-10, 04:52 PM

GL

Shagdogy · 07-01-10, 05:04 PM

All my plays are in for UFC 116! Wish me luck...

Carwin over Lesnar @ +140 (1 unit)
Grove over Reljic @ +135 (1 unit)
Brown over Lytle @ +160 (.5 unit)
Tuchscherer over Schaub @ +250 (.5 unit)

2 way parlay:
Roberts over Petz @ -180
Romero over Petruzelli @ -160 (risk 1 unit to win 1.5)

Total Risk - 4 units
To win - 6.3 units

sirchadwick1 · 07-01-10, 06:11 PM

I like the dog plays Shag. I think at least 2 of them will pull it off - probably Leben and Brown.
I'm on Lesnar though as I think he'll control the fight and have the stamina to take it late into the 2nd for a GnP TKO.

Eccocide · 07-01-10, 06:17 PM

Like them all except for Carwin and no opinon on the Lytle/Brown fight. I have similar plays to the rest so hopefully you get some good results lol.

JuicedUp · 07-01-10, 06:39 PM

I'm riding with Grove also. That looks the best to me so far.

That Brown/Lytle fight has a good shot at fight of the night. I might take a crack at that prop. You know it's not going to be boring.

GL with your plays

Shagdogy · 07-02-10, 08:09 AM

I really like the parlay... I think that's good. So I just hope to win 2 of the others realistically. I'm 5-0 over the last two, but I really doubt I stay undefeated after tomorrow. I'll definitely lose one or two of these, but that's the deal going with dogs all the way. Just trying to stay ahead. After reading some of the interviews I'm coming around more and more to Leben. Might put a little play on him too.

Educ8d Degener8 · 07-02-10, 09:57 AM

All the talk from Akiyama about not wanting to fight Leben / being disappointed in losing the Wandy fight has me cautious on the Sexy one, so a play on Leben might not be a bad thing.

But Akiyama probably knows that if he still wants that bout with the Axe Murderer, then he better bring his a-game on Saturday.

Vaughany · 07-02-10, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

All my plays are in for UFC 116! Wish me luck...

Carwin over Lesnar @ +140 (1 unit)
Grove over Reljic @ +135 (1 unit)
Brown over Lytle @ +160 (.5 unit)
Tuchscherer over Schaub @ +250 (.5 unit)

2 way parlay:
Roberts over Petz @ -180
Romero over Petruzelli @ -160 (risk 1 unit to win 1.5)

Total Risk - 4 units
To win - 6.3 units

At least 2 of those underdogs should win...I cant see Schaub losing personally but ther is better value with Tuchscherer obviously. Ive got Grove also, but surely the only way Brown can beat Lytle is by decision so a prop bet is the only one tht makes sense for me...I managed to get him at 7/1 to win by decision which is probly twice as good as ul get anywhere else tho. BOL

Shagdogy · 07-02-10, 03:41 PM

would've liked that, but BetUs sucks for MMA props. I haven't opened an account anywhere else yet. All they have is over under for total rounds. Most events they don't even have any props.

Vaughany · 07-02-10, 04:27 PM

Ah right, fair enough. Still decent value for Brown to win tho!

Shagdogy · 07-03-10, 03:06 PM

Betus finally put some props up. Brown by decision is +250. Not enough for me since I already have him to win at +160. I know it's almost impossible, but Brown to win in the 3rd is +1200. I'm considering Akiyama v. Leben to go to decision at +165.

Vaughany · 07-03-10, 03:58 PM

Ye no point at +250! Might be worth a small play on the 3rd round stoppage tho at tht value. I can only see a Brown decision or Lytle sub tho. I see Akiyama Leben going to decision as well so might be worth a pop. However, if the value is good it might be worth going for Akiyama by decision and then Leben to win or Leben to win by KO/TKO. I got Akiyama by decision at +300 and thn hedged by bets by betting on Leben to win at +185

Educ8d Degener8 · 07-03-10, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Betus finally put some props up. Brown by decision is +250. Not enough for me since I already have him to win at +160. I know it's almost impossible, but Brown to win in the 3rd is +1200. I'm considering Akiyama v. Leben to go to decision at +165.

I went a step further and included Leben via decision (+694) in a parlay

Here's my thinking: If it does indeed go to the cards, with the way judging has been going lately, it's basically a freaking 50/50 coin flip or 2:1 odds at that point based on some of the sh*t we've seen as a result of the judges. So I figured why not take almost 7:1 odds. And I think it could go to a decision. Leben is scrappy and tough to finish, so if it goes to the cards, he stands a chance 'cos you know he is gonna come to fight and leave it in the cage which can go a long way with the judges. Akiyama should be able to outpoint him, but judges see through weird lenses some times... and if Akiyama is really not motivated with Wandy having dropped out, Leben may straight up win inside the distance.

Vaughany · 07-03-10, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I went a step further and included Leben via decision (+694) in a parlay

Here's my thinking: If it does indeed go to the cards, with the way judging has been going lately, it's basically a freaking 50/50 coin flip or 2:1 odds at that point based on some of the sh*t we've seen as a result of the judges. So I figured why not take almost 7:1 odds. And I think it could go to a decision. Leben is scrappy and tough to finish, so if it goes to the cards, he stands a chance 'cos you know he is gonna come to fight and leave it in the cage which can go a long way with the judges. Akiyama should be able to outpoint him, but judges see through weird lenses some times... and if Akiyama is really not motivated with Wandy having dropped out, Leben may straight up win inside the distance.

No doubt, could defintely happen, its +525 on paddypower....you've got good value at almost 7/1 odds, same as mine with Brown against Lytle. Just after seeing how the judges scored the Belcher Sexyama fight I wouldnt be too sure!

Shagdogy · 07-04-10, 10:43 AM

3-3 record for the night. Overall I lost a total of $1.22 because I put a small bit on two props: Brown in the 3rd, and Akiyama/Leben to go to decision. I was 20 seconds away from success! Never thought Leben would pull a sub out at the end there. I actually thought that Leben would start out as the stronger guy, which he did, and then as they both tired it would slow down and end in decision because neither could finish the other. My thought process worked perfectly until Leben pulled the miracle triangle. It wasn't even tight until Akiyama sat back like an idiot. Oh well. Even for the night and a pretty good card of fights.

Shagdogy · 07-31-10, 08:14 PM

UFC on Versus 2 - Jones v. Matyushenko

All right guys... I've been back and forth over this card for so long now. I find this to be an incredibly hard card to pick with the odds. I do my best to stay on underdogs, but ALL of the favorites on this card are exceptionally difficult to finish. Okami only loses decisions. Same with Ellenberger. Riddle's the only favorite who's been finished, and Osipczak's got less power than DeMarques... so that's my play.

2 way Parlay
Johnson over Riddle @ +165 (missed it at +180)
Griffin over Gomi @ -300 for a little value. Can't see him losing this one.

That's it for now.

I'd love to make another play or two, but the more research I do and the more I think about it I don't like any of them. Feel pretty certain Oliviera will win seeing how Elkins seems to love the ground but doesn't have nearly the bjj that oliviera does, but I won't take him at those odds. Would love to be on some props with the rest of you, but betus sucks and rarely offers them. I need to get on a new book. Good luck everyone.

Shagdogy · 07-31-10, 08:35 PM

correction - Riddle's definitely not the ONLY favorite to be finished... a little bit of hyperbole there. I know that... i'm just exaggerating. I could already see a bunch of people jumping on me for being an idiot. What I mean is he's the only favorite that I see as legitimately vulnerable to being finished by his opponent's strength. Ellenberger hasn't been TKO'd... Okami's only TKO was last century so I don't even count that. We all agree that Gomi's not gonna finish Griffin, etc. Very tough to finish the favorites tomorrow night.

Vaughany · 08-01-10, 03:04 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

UFC on Versus 2 - Jones v. Matyushenko

All right guys... I've been back and forth over this card for so long now. I find this to be an incredibly hard card to pick with the odds. I do my best to stay on underdogs, but ALL of the favorites on this card are exceptionally difficult to finish. Okami only loses decisions. Same with Ellenberger. Riddle's the only favorite who's been finished, and Osipczak's got less power than DeMarques... so that's my play.

2 way Parlay
Johnson over Riddle @ +165 (missed it at +180)
Griffin over Gomi @ -300 for a little value. Can't see him losing this one.

That's it for now.

I'd love to make another play or two, but the more research I do and the more I think about it I don't like any of them. Feel pretty certain Oliviera will win seeing how Elkins seems to love the ground but doesn't have nearly the bjj that oliviera does, but I won't take him at those odds. Would love to be on some props with the rest of you, but betus sucks and rarely offers them. I need to get on a new book. Good luck everyone.

BOL...Ive got DaMarques as well but slightly concerned after seeing him at the weigh-ins...looks like he's had a tough cut

lasker · 08-01-10, 03:41 AM

yeah, that's always the danger with taking a good line before the weigh-ins... I'm a bit concerned too, but hopefully it won't affect him too much.

Vaughany · 08-01-10, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by lasker

yeah, that's always the danger with taking a good line before the weigh-ins... I'm a bit concerned too, but hopefully it won't affect him too much.

Didn't effect Daley against Hazlelett and Johnson against Yoshida so hopefully be same scenario tonight!

Shagdogy · 08-01-10, 06:52 AM

Hopefully DeMarques can catch him earlier in the fight then. If he can't get off early and spends 1.5 rounds laying on his back underneath Riddle then he'll probably gas and end up TKO'd via G-n-P. Looking for an early finish here.

lasker · 08-01-10, 11:29 AM

Yup, plus submissions are always more likely earlier in the fight anyway. Johnson has great sweeps too, so I think every time he's on his back he's going to be very resourceful. At least I hope so!

Shagdogy · 08-01-10, 05:08 PM

Added for tonight...

2-way Parlay
Stann over Massenzio @ +150
Oliveira over Elkins @ -350

.5 units to win 1.25

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 09:59 AM

Decided to go all out on UFC 117

Here's what I've got going so far...

Fitch over Alves @ Even, 1 unit
Almeida over Hughes @ -175, 2 units
Guida over Dos Anjos @ -120, 1 unit

3 way dog parlay, .5 units to win 8.5
Nelson over Dos Santos @ +250
Morecraft over Struve @ +160
Fitch over Alves @ Even

A normal night for me is 2-3 units in general... and I'm up to 4.5 already here. Just got a little bored. I've hung out around even for far too long now (although I'm up 10 units in MMA). Still looking to put together a modest, safer parlay of favorites. Just need to decide how to do it. I also might throw a little here and there on some of the dogs outside of a parlay. Any ideas. I'm gonna go up to 6-8 units here I think.

Vaughany · 08-04-10, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Decided to go all out on UFC 117

Here's what I've got going so far...

Fitch over Alves @ Even, 1 unit
Almeida over Hughes @ -175, 2 units
Guida over Dos Anjos @ -120, 1 unit

3 way dog parlay, .5 units to win 8.5
Nelson over Dos Santos @ +250
Morecraft over Struve @ +160
Fitch over Alves @ Even

A normal night for me is 2-3 units in general... and I'm up to 4.5 already here. Just got a little bored. I've hung out around even for far too long now (although I'm up 10 units in MMA). Still looking to put together a modest, safer parlay of favorites. Just need to decide how to do it. I also might throw a little here and there on some of the dogs outside of a parlay. Any ideas. I'm gonna go up to 6-8 units here I think.

I think Hallman and Morecraft are the only worthwhile underdogs. Ive got Saunders in a double with Story tho so will probly put singles on Hallman (as back up), Story, and Morecraft

snake11eyes · 08-04-10, 12:49 PM

I think Nelson is a live dog. If he can get JDS to the ground he can cause him some serious problems.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 04:53 PM

Vaughany, you don't think Hazelett has a shot to sub Story? I know Story hasn't been subbed, but Hazelett's BJJ is great. I can't get a feeling for that fight either way, but you seem real strong on Story. Why's that?

Eccocide · 08-04-10, 05:17 PM

I see some ppl on Story and for good reason, but I can't back him with my money. I've rewatched his fights vs Osipzack and Foster multiple times and he gets a little careless with his TDs and positioning which leaves him vulnerable to subs. So far he's been able to power out of them due to his strength but Hazelett is a different animal on the ground. Story keeps his head down low when driving in for the TD which leaves his neck exposed and Hazelett loves to jump into a standing gullotine as he has shown in many of his fights. Story's wrestling is great but to be in Dustin's guard for 3 straight rounds and not get subbed isnt going to be easy. Could he use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing? Sure, but I don't think he has a significant advantage there. He is definitely the more powerful striker but Hazelett has great kicks and a 6in reach advantage which wont be easy to deal with. Its a very difficult fight to call but it's Hazelett or no play for me.

Eccocide · 08-04-10, 05:24 PM

And if you want examples of how Hazelett has dealt with wrestlers watch his fights vs Koscheck and Burkman. Against Koscheck he used his range and kicks beautifully in the standup. In the clinch he wasn't afraid to pull guard and when Koscheck finally goes in for a power takedown Hazelett almost gets him with a triangle. He does eventually get rocked by a headkick and loses the fight, but up until that point he looked very good against a guy who is superior in most areas compared to Story.

Burkman was able to get TDs early using his sheer power but Hazelett was extremely dangerous on the ground and had a slick omaplata reversal to gain position. In the 2nd he pulled guard multiple times without worrying about being on the bottom and then got a great trip to armbar transition to finish the fight. The guy isn't afraid to be underneath a solid wrestler and its hard to bet on someone who's greatest attribute may put him in the most danger.

Anyway, thats just what I picked up from studying for the fights. As I said, Story could very will win this fight by grinding out a decision. He has a great base and is tough to reverse. It's just not something I would feel comfortable wagering on.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 05:38 PM

I've had pretty much the same thinking as you Ecco. I just can't get comfortable with Story after watching some of his fights. He will spend far too long inside the danger zone. I would need more incentive to bet on him, or Hazelett for that matter. Gonna stay away for now... though I may eventually come around to Hazelett.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 06:01 PM

Added...

Brenneman over Hendricks, .5 units @ +325

and

3 way favorites parlay, 1 unit to win 2 units
Hendricks over Brenneman
Dos Santos over Nelson
Hazelett over Story

What on earth am I doing? I'm out of control on this one.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Gonna stay away for now... though I may eventually come around to Hazelett.

Haha! Well that didn't take me long. About 25 minutes to be exact. I watch two of Hazelett's fights and decide that he's gonna sub Story no doubt. I'm up to 5.5 units here... something big's happening Saturday night, just don't know exactly what.

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 03:29 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Vaughany, you don't think Hazelett has a shot to sub Story? I know Story hasn't been subbed, but Hazelett's BJJ is great. I can't get a feeling for that fight either way, but you seem real strong on Story. Why's that?

Yee I'm actually going to add Hazelett to a parlay once I've seen the weigh-ins as a back up. I decided to just have Story in the double with Saunders so have not involved him any more plays. I agree that there is definitely a good chance that Hazelett might sub him and he's also going to have a reach advantage standing so its not a given that Storey even dominates the stand up if manages to keep it there (as Ecco stated above). My main inclination for thinking the value was with Story was due to the fact that Hazelett has been advised not to fight by the specialist who he saw, and this combined with the psychological impact that the KO by Daley might have had on him, makes me think that Story might just overwhelm him.

wake14 · 08-05-10, 06:17 PM

Love hazelett!! And alves.. My 2 picks.... I also think guidia is gonna lose too.