On the other hand... if Hazelett's deciding to fight anyway even after being told not to, then maybe he's just not scared and itching to get back to action. Maybe he can't wait to get back in and the KO didn't change him much. That's my hope. I'm now considering a Silva/Saunders double. That pays out just under even money. If I put that in, then Phil Davis will be the only fight I don't have money on.
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Nice writeups on Hazelett-Story, guys!Comment -
UFC 118
Florian over Maynard @ -180 (waited too long). 2.5 Units
Osipczak over Soto @ -220. 2 Units
Miranda over Maia @ +180. 1 Unit
Parlay
Diaz over Davis
Florian/Maynard over 2.5 rounds
Couture/Toney over .5 rounds
Chelsea money line over Zilina (champions league)
Risk 1.1 Units to win 3.5 Units
Best of luck everyone!Comment -
good luck tonight, I hopped on Florian too late as wellComment -
Holy crap shagdogy you got the raw deal on all three of those lines. Also I like your parlay except for chelsea money line. I dont know to much about that, but the rest looks solid. Good luck tonight I have everything you have and some.Comment -
Yeaaaahhh..... getting real annoyed with BetUS. I waited until very last minute and they juiced the hell out of them. Probably the last straw. Gonna hit up 5 dimes I think. Speaking of a raw deal, 0-3? Damn. Didn't see that coming. Still got the parlay... of course I have to wait 2 weeks for Chelsea to play. Long two weeks.Comment -
All right guys... UFN 22 is here!
I finally got on 5dimes, and since this card is incredibly tough to call, I've gone with 2 straddles and a complete long-shot just hoping to get lucky. Here they are...
Oliveira by sub @ +475, 1 unit to win 4.75
Straddled with Escudero by decision @ +247, .5 units to win 1.2
Pearson by TKO/KO @ +300, 1 unit to win 3
Straddled with Pearson by decision @ +229, .5 units to win 1.1
Palhares by TKO/KO @ +2075, .5 units to win 10.3
All bets "plus stake" as Vaughany would say. Feel pretty good about the Oliveira and Pearson bets. Couldn't get a read on that Palhares fight so I just took a big long shot. He's heavy handed and in MMA anything can happen. I don't expect that to cash, but would LOVE if it did.
Also, I have Chelsea ML vs. Zelina tomorrow in the champions league! They are the final leg of my 4 way parlay (I won the first 3 at UFC 118 and have been waiting ever since). That was 1.1 to win 3.75, so keeping my fingers crossed there.
GOOD LUCK ALLComment -
Is Palhares heavy handed? It seems every fight I've seen he's wanting the takedown ASAP. If he is, it's somewhat worthwhile. Marquardt's defense isn't that good.Comment -
I guess I'll correct myself a bit here. He's HUGE and throws a lot of mass. His striking is not great. He only owns 1 KO win. This outcome is extremely unlikely as the odds reflect. I just took a shot. Barely an educated shot. More of just a "man that would be awesome if lightning strikes in my favor" shot. My real hopes lie with Oliveira and Pearson.Comment -
Added the following 3-way parlay
Marquardt -3.5 points @ +140
Tibau +3.5 points @ -280
Pearson -3.5 points @ -190
.5 units to win 1.9Comment -
Results UFN 22 - +2.1 Units
Not bad. Pearson really hurt me, but Oliveira came through with a sick sub and saved my night. Glad I was right about one thing.Comment -
Oliveira came through for me as well! Pearson was just too relaxed, surprised tho after training with Edgar and Almeida!Comment -
Hey Shagdogy, Who do you like for UFC 119? Do you like Mir or CroCrop? etc.?Comment -
Still formulating my opinions on those fights. At first thought, I don't like CroCop's ground game at all... but Mir's standup is not on par with CroCop. Need some more time on that one. I like Serra/Lytle to go to decision prop, but at -230 that's parlay material. If there's a good line on Doerkson by sub I will probably jump on that, and I like Mitrione v. Beltran but I need to see where the value lies there. Stick around here and keep reading over the next week and a half. Still working on it.Comment -
UFC 119
3 way parlay
Mir over Cro-Cop @ -255
Sherk/Dunham over 2.5 rounds @ -230
Serra/Lytle to decision @ -230
1 unit to win 1.7 plus stake
With Cro-Cop admittedly not 100%, you have to like Mir in this fight and at -255 he's parlay material. Sherk/Dunham will probably go to a decision, though if Sherk sees a big drop-off Dunham has the ability to finish him. I can't see it ending early though, so over 2.5 was a good shot. Finally, Serra/Lytle just seems destined for decision. IMO as long as Lytle avoids being cut, this fight must go to decision.Comment -
Added...UFC 119
Mitrione over Beltran @ -150, 2.2 units to win 1.5
Doerkson by Submission over Dollaway @ +564, .7 units to win 4
Stradle - Stephens over Guillard @ +135, 2 units to win 2.7
Guillard by decision over Stephens @ +247, .8 units to win 2 (Thanks Vaughany)
After watching film of Beltran I'm pretty sure he's no good. I can't see him TKO/KO'ing Mitrione, and he will have a size disadvantage that will be hard for him to throw around for 3 rounds. I think Mitrione's kickboxing here is the key to his victory. If he uses fists and legs, he'll have the more versatile attack and should at least outpoint Beltran. I expect this fight to go deep and have a lot of gassed out zombie walking going on since both have strong chins. I considered a play on this fight to decision @ +155 but passed because big guys can gas so bad that they end up being finished with nothing.
The Doerkson by Sub bet is a good one for the odds. Dollaway has been caught before, and Doerkson has a strong enough chin to hang in there and stick around for a while. Love to see a triangle here win here for Doerkson.
Still considering a few more plays. Good luck all.Comment -
Added more for UFC 119
Stephens by submission over Guillard @ +1083, .5 units to win 5.4
Parlay
Mir by submission @ +215
Serra by decision @ +174
Dunham over Sherk @ -225
.5 units to win 5.7Comment -
agreed with results on Mir and Dunham and Stephens..methodology not so much (I know you took a flyer n Stephens). If I had to choose, Mir by TKO..I'm strongly considering no-playing the Serra fight..I initially handicapped the fight and liked Lytle, and everyone and their brother has been on Serra.Comment -
Aaaaandd a few more for UFC 119.
Serra over Lytle @ +115. 2 units to win 2.3
Parlay
Lytle over Serra @ -135
Dollaway over Doerkson @ -310
Grant over Paulino @ -165
.5 units to win 1.3
The more and more I thought about the Serra/Lytle fight I couldn't help but think that Serra has the edge. They are similarly skilled just about everywhere, but Serra has the heavier hands and will not have to be concerned with Lytle's power. This should allow him to fight the more open fight as time goes on. I expect it to be razor close, but Serra should win as long as he doesn't spend too much time on his back.Comment -
Yes... I was wrong about that one. Oh well. Not my best night. I thought Hazelett had more in him with all the time that fight should have spent on the ground. Oh well. Any input on the fights that are actually coming up tonight, or are we just rubbing salt in old wounds?Comment -
I see SweatySombrero is back doing what he does best lol. GL tonight Shag.Comment -
Don't mind sweatysombrero, he's an imbecile. GL tonight.Comment -
Results for UFC 119 - +3.5 units.
Not bad. Couldn't hit on any of my long shots (Doerkson by sub, Stephens by sub). If Stephens wins at all it's at least a 6 unit night. I was surprised by that fight. Melvin looked extremely fast and crisp and Stephens just couldn't get off. What surprised me more though is that the couple of times he caught Melvin good he just shook it off like he didn't feel it. Melvin won with his speed and the two or three times he got caught he just took it.
Loved the Mitrione fight. Went exactly as planned. I thought his kickboxing was gonna pick Beltran apart over time and his size would keep it standing. Got a little scared in the first when Beltran got the takedown, but Meathead looked GREAT in the 2nd and 3rd. Especially for a heavyweight. He was very light on his feet and still quick in the 3rd round. Good fight for him. He's still gonna need to improve his takedown D greatly if he's going to be a force at heavyweight though. Added a play on that one to start the 3rd at the last minute.
Other reactions... Lytle looked good. Serra needs to stop using his head as a battering ram and leading with his chin in every exchange. Dunham has heart and he'll bounce back. That result just makes me hate the judging system. Dunham did a LOT of damage in round 3 and IMO stole round 2 as well. Good fight though.
How about Mir/Cro-Cop? Awful fight. Just dreadful. I won on another last second play I added for Mir inside the distance, but I think we all lost for watching that crap. What a terrible fight.Comment -
great job....you might be the only person here who was on CB, lol
agree with your breakdowns...I didn't think the Melvin decision was nearly as bad as some people... the 30-27 Bader decision was worse IMOComment -
Good job shagdogy! Shame our Stephens straddle didn't work out as well as it could of, but at least didnt lose anything from it!Comment -
GJ man
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I agree with the Bader 30-27 score being the worst of the night. How on earth can you give him round 3?? I was amazed at that score. He needs to improve his gas tank dramatically or he isnt going to go much further in the division. Him in a 5 rounder would be laughable.Comment -
Plays for tonight...WEC 51
Johnson over Pace @ -115, 1.1 units to win 1
Zhang over Garza @ -135, 1.3 units to win 1
Varner over Cerrone @ -145, 1.4 units to win 1 / Varner by decision @ +170, 1 unit to win 1.7
Garcia v. Hominick goes to decision @ -120, 1.2 units to win 1
Parlay
Hominick over Garcia @ -200
Horodecki over Ratcliff @ -155
Jung over Roop @ -265
.5 units to win 1.2
Went in kinda hard on Varner here because I just don't see what Cerrone threatens with other than a triangle. His two advantages are his kicks and his chin. His kicks will just land him on his back for much of the fight, and his chin will help him get to a decision. Varner wasn't bothered too much by Cerrone's kicks the first time around, and he will surely be expecting them again. He should be able to take Cerrone down at will, and hopefully avoid the submission.
Zhang for obvious reasons. Late replacement. Hand-picked to rep. China. Bigger fighter. Hopefully that's enough.
Good luck all!Comment -
I have very similar plays so it looks like we are in this one together. GL!Comment -
Nobody is throwing Aldo into parlays. I think Manny is getting a little too much credit for the MTB win. Brown looked like his dog had just died. Aldo completely tooled Faber and MTB. Manny had a close fight with Leonard Garcia and was KTFO by Rob Emerson. Don't be scared. Throw Aldo into parlays. LoLComment -
I just tend to stay away from anything worse than -400, even in parlays. I've been burned before, and the value of adding them is just not enough. I agree, Aldo should dominate.Comment
