Boxing/MMA PLAYS

[illmatick]

I have a straddle for tonight

Martirosyan wins by 10 round decision -105 x1
Joe Greene +290 x.5

Marti takes a UD +.5 units

[illmatick]

- 2 units on the cotto fight..meh

[southmadejd]

Damn ilmatik, we were coasting to that decision Cotto prop bet until Yuri"s f-cking knee gave out. What a weird ass night of fights. I feel violated.

Or at least I thought it would go over 10 1/2.

[illmatick]

Yuri's knee and the KGB judges cost me my profit for the week, I'm sure I sound like a baby by now but boxing is just mentally wearing me the fuk out, I've lost count of how many solid underdog picks I've made only to have them lose because of some corrupt judges


I mentioned it earlier but linemaker Joey Oddessa even said he' going to seriously cut back on the amount of boxing lines he releases, sport is reaching an all time corruption level

I'm just going to focus on looking for solid boxing straddles and spend more time on my mma bets

[Chairib]

Yuri's knee and the KGB judges cost me my profit for the week, I'm sure I sound like a baby by now but boxing is just mentally wearing me the fuk out, I've lost count of how many solid underdog picks I've made only to have them lose because of some corrupt judges


I mentioned it earlier but linemaker Joey Oddessa even said he' going to seriously cut back on the amount of boxing lines he releases, sport is reaching an all time corruption level

I'm just going to focus on looking for solid boxing straddles and spend more time on my mma bets

Bagels said that?

[illmatick]

yeah, I read it on his twitter account

he was disgusted with the way the Napa vs Hall fight ended, I was one step ahead of the linemaker on that one

charib I can't believe you're not a huge fan of bellator, quickly becoming the best mma org behind Zuffa, I need your damn opinion on the Askren fight

[Chairib]

How soon do you need info on the Hornbuckle/Aren fight?

[illmatick]

June 17th is the fight, really the only two fights you need to watch on Askren are both against Ryan Thomas

http://www.soku.com/search_video/q_bellator

[Chairib]

June 17th is the fight, really the only two fights you need to watch on Askren are both against Ryan Thomas
http://www.soku.com/search_video/q_bellator

I've been using most of my time focused on the UFC right now. I mean you don't need it this week right?

I have watched a little tape on both of those guys. I think watching tape on Askren's nogi competitions will help. At this point there isn't too much difference between his overall MMA style and his sport grappling style. Luckily there is quite a bit of competition footage on youtube.

[illmatick]

no rush, line has been pretty stagnant at around -150

-165 or higher it probably becomes a no play

[Educ8d Degener8]

Ill, I'm all for Hornbuckle tooling Askren, as Askren kinda bores me with his sloppy LnP style at this juncture in his career, buuuut... we gotta get a good understanding of Hornbuckle's TDD. Maybe there's some clues in his fight with Nick Thompson??? F*ck if I remember -- I'll try to dig that one up.

Because if it's determined that Hornbuckle's TDD isn't top notch, we'd have to assume that he's gonna spend some quality time on his back here. And while he is super slick with subs, I don't like having to count on a guy winning via sub from his back.

It's safe to say Hornbuckle has the striking advantage, but we've seen what good wrestling can do to good striking lately, in terms of negating it.

I'll chime back in when I have something of better substance to add... GL bro.

[illmatick]

good points EDU, the only other time I've bet on a fighter where I knew he would be put on his back was Grove vs Jake Rosholt, I see too many similiarties between that fight and this one..... we've already seen that Askren is succeptiable to the triangle, add to the fact that Hornbuckle has some long legs and I almost see that as the most logical scenario on how this fight will end


parlay x2.5
Aaron Simpson -350
Tyson Griffen -180

Gilbert Yvel -130x1


Rory Mcdonald -140 x1.5

straddle
Liddell +125 x1
Franklin wins by 3 round decision +228 x.5

straddle
Wiman wins by 3 round decision +210 x.75
Danzig -115 x1

[illmatick]

Martin Kampmann +165 x.25

[Vaughany]

good points EDU, the only other time I've bet on a fighter where I knew he would be put on his back was Grove vs Jake Rosholt, I see too many similiarties between that fight and this one..... we've already seen that Askren is succeptiable to the triangle, add to the fact that Hornbuckle has some long legs and I almost see that as the most logical scenario on how this fight will end


parlay x2.5
Aaron Simpson -350
Tyson Griffen -180

Gilbert Yvel -130x1


Rory Mcdonald -140 x1.5

straddle
Liddell +125 x1
Franklin wins by 3 round decision +228 x.5

straddle
Wiman wins by 3 round decision +210 x.75
Danzig -115 x1

Straddles are a great decision! Like the Griffin and Simpson double aswell but think im gonna put 5 units on Wilks and Simpson. Not sure about Yvel tho...I might do a straddle on tht aswell...Yvel by KO or TKO and ROthwell by decision.

[illmatick]

yeah.. I'm looking forward to the release of the Wilks and Miranda lines

[Vaughany]

You picking Miranda over the Crow?!

[illmatick]

no doubt, UFC only brings him back to take a beating and possibly sell a few more tickets

don't see that fight being very competive

[Vaughany]

interesting...if Miranda is at evens I'll consider it!

[Eccocide]

Miranda is a horrible matchup for Louseau. Great wrestling/good base/good TDs. He can beat him in the standup too if he really wants to test the waters, although I expect him to put it to the floor quickly.

I may add Rich by Decision too since I already played Chuck and can't see Franklin finishing him. Would almost guarantee a profit but I'm stubborn lol. May also add a similar/identical parlay as Griffin/Simpson if I don't get the odds im looking for on Griffin by decision.

[brooks85]

ive been waiting for this one since i saw the matchup, this is definitely mirandas fight.

[Chairib]

Ill, I'm all for Hornbuckle tooling Askren, as Askren kinda bores me with his sloppy LnP style at this juncture in his career, buuuut... we gotta get a good understanding of Hornbuckle's TDD. Maybe there's some clues in his fight with Nick Thompson??? F*ck if I remember -- I'll try to dig that one up.

Because if it's determined that Hornbuckle's TDD isn't top notch, we'd have to assume that he's gonna spend some quality time on his back here. And while he is super slick with subs, I don't like having to count on a guy winning via sub from his back.

It's safe to say Hornbuckle has the striking advantage, but we've seen what good wrestling can do to good striking lately, in terms of negating it.

I'll chime back in when I have something of better substance to add... GL bro.

Educ8d Degener8 makes some excellent points but I do respectfully disagree on categorizing Askren's style as LnP. Granted, I've only seen two of his MMA bouts and a couple of his nogi competitions. But from what I seen, he is a grappler with an aggressive style that borders on being sloppy or just plain reckless at times. He's looking to pass guard and get the full mount whenever it goes to the ground. And he loves going for that darce/brabo choke from almost any position.

Unfortunately what he does lack offensively is a striking threat, especially on the ground. He's got a little ground and pound but he hasn't learned the importance of using strikes to set up your grappling/subs. And that does make Askren very predictable on the ground, especially if you can get the full guard on him.

If I'm Dan, I pull guard and wait for the stand-up by the ref and turn this into a striking match. Since Askren doesn't have a real ground and pound game to punish you down there, you can get away with being ultra conservative with your grappling. And Dan's length makes his guard a lot like Anderson Silva's since they're both able to employ a figure four closed guard. And once you get stuck in that kind of closed guard, it's damn near impossible to pass.

Is this fight five or three rounds?

[Educ8d Degener8]

Educ8d Degener8 makes some excellent points but I do respectfully disagree on categorizing Askren's style as LnP. Granted, I've only seen two of his MMA bouts and a couple of his nogi competitions. But from what I seen, he is a grappler with an aggressive style that borders on being sloppy or just plain reckless at times. He's looking to pass guard and get the full mount whenever it goes to the ground. And he loves going for that darce/brabo choke from almost any position.

Unfortunately what he does lack offensively is a striking threat, especially on the ground. He's got a little ground and pound but he hasn't learned the importance of using strikes to set up your grappling/subs. And that does make Askren very predictable on the ground, especially if you can get the full guard on him.

If I'm Dan, I pull guard and wait for the stand-up by the ref and turn this into a striking match. Since Askren doesn't have a real ground and pound game to punish you down there, you can get away with being ultra conservative with your grappling. And Dan's length makes his guard a lot like Anderson Silva's since they're both able to employ a figure four closed guard. And once you get stuck in that kind of closed guard, it's damn near impossible to pass.

Is this fight five or three rounds?

I'm admittedly a bit harsh (and inaccurate) when I characterize Askren as LnP It's more so the bit of sloppiness (due to his inexperience / aggressiveness that you pointed out) he exhibits that turns me off, I dunno. I agree that Hornbuckle should just tie him up in his guard when he is inevitably taken down such that the match gets stood up. And Hornbuckle is damn slick off his back, so he may even pull a sub that way, I suppose.

With the line movement, I'm tempted to put some on Hornbuckle.

edit: Fight is 3 rounds I believe.

edit 2: I watched the Hornbuckle vs Nick Thompson fight, but Thompson didn't shoot, so it didn't give me any better idea regarding Dan's TDD unfortunately.

[illmatick]

Miranda -115 x2

lets hope 5 dimes opens him up at anything under -180, I'm pounding this one

[Eccocide]

Talking to a rep right now to find out when they are releasing them.

[illmatick]

Talking to a rep right now to find out when they are releasing them.

let me know what they say

added another .5 units on it

[Eccocide]

lol they put me on hold for 15 minutes then come back and say "no definitive time for release", basically meaning we are going to wait till the volatility in the lines are gone lol.

[illmatick]

figures with 5 dimes, i was surprised they released most of the openers before bookmaker today

added another 1.5 units on Miranda -155

[Eccocide]

lol we all re-upped on it at -155 as well haha.

Ya thats prolly why they are gunna be cautious now. Prolly got burned on that Kampmann line.

[southmadejd]

Ilmatik, do you really like Yvel against Rothwell? That was one of the lines I really liked (Rothwell at -140). I think he takes this pretty easy. Yvel always has a chance to KO him but I am thinking Rothwell will take him down against the cage and keep him there pretty much all 3 rounds. I just feel like Yvel is a risky bet because he doesn't seem to come ready to fights anymore.

[illmatick]

didn't expect the line to move against me like that but yeah I like him in this fight. Most of the people on Rothwell seem to be pointing to Yvel's lack of takedown defense and size disadvantage, valid points but since when has Rothwell been know for his wrestling/grappling skills? this fight very well could come down to how well Yvel can sprawl out of Ben's takedowns and clinches but Ben is obviously not the smartest guy and I've rarely seen him come into a fight with a solid gameplan( I'm leaning towards him trying to bang it out for three rounds opposed to working a gameplan and shooting in early for a takedown) ... even if he does come into the fight looking to land some takedowns I still like my chances of Yvel being able to stuff them for most of the second half of the fight. I've heard he's been working on his striking with Roufus so who knows maybe he'll surprise me with some improved stand-up but from what I've seen from him in the past I'd expect Yvel to win by TKO in under 1.5 rounds(Rothwell's got a beastly chin so a Decision wouldn't surprise me either) . The disparity in hand speed should play a huge factor in this fight imo, should be able to beat Rothwell to the punch through out the fight

[southmadejd]

Thanks for the writeup....I kind of disagree with you about Rothwell not having a gameplan though. I feel like he normally does have a game plan, now whether or not he is able to enforce it is another thing.

Also, I got Miranda at -210 but I agree with you guys that it is a horrible matchup for Loiseau. I also like Rory Macdonald against Condit because of Condit's lack of takedown defense. Let me know what you think about that.

[wake14]

Yuri wil be a close fight for sure...

[southmadejd]

^^^Are you talking about Yuri Foreman? You are a couple of days late if you are.

[Chairib]

I'm admittedly a bit harsh (and inaccurate) when I characterize Askren as LnP It's more so the bit of sloppiness (due to his inexperience / aggressiveness that you pointed out) he exhibits that turns me off, I dunno. I agree that Hornbuckle should just tie him up in his guard when he is inevitably taken down such that the match gets stood up. And Hornbuckle is damn slick off his back, so he may even pull a sub that way, I suppose.

With the line movement, I'm tempted to put some on Hornbuckle.

edit: Fight is 3 rounds I believe.

edit 2: I watched the Hornbuckle vs Nick Thompson fight, but Thompson didn't shoot, so it didn't give me any better idea regarding Dan's TDD unfortunately.

I found his most recent fight really interesting in that his opponent, Steve Carl, is a wrestler who likes the ground and pound. Dan chose to take the fight directly into an area where Carl's strength lies. He didn't try to fight the takedown at all and instead he chose to jump directly to guard.

I agree with you, Hornbuckle's guardwork is quite good. He shows a good foundation in both the defensive and offensive aspects of guardwork. Once it hit the mat, Dan's use of the closed guard as well as going after wrist control, stopped Carl from posturing up and throwing effective strikes. It slowed his offensive game way down and Dan saw what was coming from a mile away.

Steve started to telegraph, and it was a punch which allowed Dan to trap the other arm and set up that Kimura. What I really liked about that Kimura, was how he shifted his hips and used his left leg to trap Carl's head during the move. By trapping that head, Dan effectively stuffed any possible counter Steve could have had.

Those long legs could give Askren a lot of trouble and it's easy to imagine him getting caught in a triangle choke during this fight. But that also means you'd have to open up your guard which gives Askren an opportunity to pass guard. Personally, I wouldn't even give Ben that opportunity to pass. Because if you do that, it turns into a grappling match. And that is the only area where Ben is conceivably stronger than Dan. Specifically Ben's top game with positional control, ie side and full mount, is definitely where his strength as a fighter is. And with the clear advantage Dan has with strikes why not get it to the feet as fast as possible? I can see Dan just punish Askren with knees during the stand up.

[illmatick]

I like it charib... gonna include Dan into some type of small parlay.. not sure with who yet