Boxing/MMA PLAYS

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 05:13 PM

I got the worst possible prices but I still see value in both of these

MacDonald/Condit goes 3 round distance +260 x.5
Filipovic/Barry goes 3 round distance +325 x.25

**Vaughany** · 06-10-10, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

I got the worst possible prices but I still see value in both of these

MacDonald/Condit goes 3 round distance +260 x.5
Filipovic/Barry goes 3 round distance +325 x.25

Yee tht is good value for CroCop Barry, its only 6/4 to go distance on paddypower.

**Eccocide** · 06-10-10, 05:18 PM

Like both. I was willing to pay some decent juice to get Crocop/Barry over 1.5 but they decided to go over 2.5 as a heavy dog instead. Gunna stay away.

**Eccocide** · 06-10-10, 05:22 PM

Franklin by decision up to +348.....

. They are begging me to straddle my Chuck bet lol.

**Vaughany** · 06-10-10, 05:26 PM

ha do it! Cant rely on Chuck!

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 05:32 PM

that's an insane price, I didn't even think to check the line on that today, figured if anything it would go down

just added .25 units more on it at +348

**Kaladarus** · 06-10-10, 06:25 PM

Crocop/Barry to go the distance was at +450 before, but +325 is still pretty good.

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Curran +125 x1

+1.25 units tonight

I scored it 29-28 for Imada but 1st 2 rounds were somewhat close

**Eccocide** · 06-10-10, 08:49 PM

how does a guy win when he didnt do anything offensively after the first round? He wasnt even throwing punches meanwhile landing them lol...

Glad someone got lucky and won something on a bad decision.

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 08:51 PM

I feel for you guys Ecco, gambling gods owed me one after getting robbed on a +280 boxer last week

**southmadejd** · 06-10-10, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

I got the worst possible prices but I still see value in both of these

MacDonald/Condit goes 3 round distance +260 x.5
Filipovic/Barry goes 3 round distance +325 x.25

I unfortunately was only offered the Cro Cop/Barry goes over 2 1/2 but I still love both of your bets. I think they will hit.

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 10:15 PM

really like my chances on splitting those 2 southmad

everytime I login to 5dimes, Miranda -205 is just staring me in the face, still think thats an extremely soft line...might just sit on what I have an avoid getting too greedy

**illmatick** · 06-10-10, 11:44 PM

complete list of my plays for Saturday

1.Miranda -115 x2
Miranda -155 x1.5
Miranda -145 x.5

2. parlay x2.5
Aaron Simpson -350
Tyson Griffen -180

3. Gilbert Yvel -130x1

4. Rory Mcdonald -140 x1.5

5. MacDonald/Condit goes 3 round distance +260 x.5

6. Filipovic/Barry goes 3 round distance +325 x.25

7. straddle
Liddell +125 x1
Franklin wins by 3 round decision +228 x.5

8. straddle
Wiman wins by 3 round decision +210 x.75
Danzig -115 x1

9. straddle
Chuck Liddell +115 x.5
Franklin wins by 3 round decision +348 x.25

10. Kampmann +165 x.25

11. insurance parlay x.25
Condit +125
James Wilks -355
Paulo Thiago -235
Rothwell/Yvel goes 3 round distance +320

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 09:31 AM

I can see a lot of these fights on Saturday either going to decision or even split decision.

**ddream1** · 06-11-10, 12:06 PM

gl luck sir

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

I can see a lot of these fights on Saturday either going to decision or even split decision.

yeah..if anything I'm going to add on to my decision props and maybe add a play on Mat Wiman

Originally posted by ddream1

gl luck sir

thanks dream

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

yeah..if anything I'm going to add on to my decision props and maybe add a play on Mat Wiman

thanks dream

I've been thinking Danzig either way I can see it going to a decision regardless and who the hell knows what's going to happen when reaches the judges.

Are you betting on the Griffin/Dunham fight? I really am having a hard time getting a read on this fight. My initial thoughts are Dunham by decision. Griffin's one of those wrestlers who like to keep standing so he can strike. Griffin's got the speed but he's giving up both the reach and size advantage to Dunham.

**southmadejd** · 06-11-10, 12:31 PM

I personally think Dunham will win by decision and upset Griffin. I know Griffin can take it to the ground but Dunham's tdd is tops also. Anyways Charib and Ilmatik, what did you guys decide on the horbuckle vs askren fight. I think I am going to piggyback whatever you guys decide on.

Gl to both of you guys tomorrow night. I hope we all hit. Sorry ilmatik but I am going the other way on the Rothwell fight. But if it makes up for anything, I am extremely jealous that you got to get miranda at -115 at one point. I took him at -200 but I put $400. I know the gambling gods might screw me on that one for being too greedy but I hope not.

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by southmadejd

I personally think Dunham will win by decision and upset Griffin. I know Griffin can take it to the ground but Dunham's tdd is tops also. Anyways Charib and Ilmatik, what did you guys decide on the horbuckle vs askren fight. I think I am going to piggyback whatever you guys decide on.

Gl to both of you guys tomorrow night. I hope we all hit. Sorry ilmatik but I am going the other way on the Rothwell fight. But if it makes up for anything, I am extremely jealous that you got to get miranda at -115 at one point. I took him at -200 but I put $400. I know the gambling gods might screw me on that one for being too greedy but I hope not.

Thanks and best of luck to you as well.

I'm leaning towards a small play on Hornbuckle and I believe illmatick was going to bet on Horbuckle in a parlay.

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 02:23 PM

personally I rank Tyson's striking/boxing 4th behind Edgar, Penn and Florian in the lightweight division. I think he's a lot more fluid than Dunham and with his speed advantage should be able to unload from inside the pocket and move out of range before Dunham has a chance to counter. I've see Dunham work a nice jab before so if he decides to use that as his primary weapon I could see it causing a lot of trouble for Tyson but I don't think he generates nearly as much power in his punches. Evan seems to overcommit with his punches at times leaving himself open to the right hand counter..more specifically the right uppercut

My primary concern is their wrestling styles, much like Dunham's last opp in Efrain he will be up against the more explosive wrestler but his grind me out wear you down style mixed with his BJJ edge could easily take over the fight in the later rounds... I learned a valuable lesson when I bet on Danny Castillo to beat Shane roller, this fight does seem to have a lot of similarities between that one but I think Tyson has a little better cardio and he should take this fight just based on his striking alone imo

I'll be buying back for a bit on Dunham since the line has moved quite a bit my way, not sure for how much yet but it all depends what kind of start I get off to on the undercard

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

personally I rank Tyson's striking/boxing 4th behind Edgar, Penn and Florian in the lightweight division. I think he's a lot more fluid than Dunham and with his speed advantage should be able to unload from inside the pocket and move out of range before Dunham has a chance to counter. I've see Dunham work a nice jab before so if he decides to use that as his primary weapon I could see it causing a lot of trouble for Tyson but I don't think he generates nearly as much power in his punches

My primary concern is their wrestling styles, much like Dunham's last opp in Efrain he will be up against the more explosive wrestler but his grind me out wear you down style mixed with his BJJ edge could easily take over the fight in the later rounds... I learned a valuable lesson when I bet on Danny Castillo to beat Shane roller, this fight does seem to have a lot of similarities between that one but I think Tyson has a little better cardio and he should take this fight just based on his striking alone imo

I'll be buying back for a bit on Dunham since the line has moved quite a bit my way, not sure for how much yet but it all depends what kind of start I get off to on the undercard

Having met Tyson, I can honestly say he's a lot closer to 5'3 or 5'4 than he is 5'6. I just don't see him coming out on the winning end of a striking battle with Dunnham. I think Dunnham's going to beat him to the punch every time.

Looking at Efrain and Tyson's wrestling style what's jumps to mind is that Tyson's wrestling base is more defensive. He looks to strike and uses that base to keep things on the feet, in that respect he's a lot like Evan.

Dunnham's BJJ is pretty high level stuff, he schooled Efrain on the ground. I think Tyson can take Evan down if he has to, especially in the later rounds. But I don't know if Tyson will be able to land adequate strikes once it gets down there. Evan should be able to keep Tyson from posturing up and landing strikes.

**Eccocide** · 06-11-10, 04:27 PM

I actually don't think Dunham uses his jab enough or as effectively as he should. He relied more on wild hooks vs Efrain rather than using his length to his advantage. He did use his straight nicely against Aurelio but I don't think he respected Aurelio's striking and felt more comfortable in mixing it up. I think Griffin's leg kicks could be a big equation to this fight. He's got those powerful inside and outside leg kicks that can take away an opponent's strength and explosiveness. I'm not sure Dunham will have the ability to catch a leg or threaten for a takedown in order to nullify Tyson's kicks, although he did hit a double against Efrain in a similar situation.

The more I looked at this fight, especially the way decisions have been going lately, I couldnt convince myself to lay over -200 on a fight I think has a solid chance to go to decision. I still think Griffin wins but I feel better having my money on it going to decision rather than on a winner.

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 04:50 PM

that's the same type of read I got from his punches ecco, a little on the sloppy/wild side and like I said, at times he overcommits with his punches leaving himself wide open for that short right counter hook and right uppercut which was something Efrain exposed in the first round of their fight

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 04:57 PM

Tyson will open himself up to strikes if he tries to kick. Again, he is a short guy and those stubby legs of his aren't going to even come close to Evan. And I'll call it right now, if he tries to cut kick Evan's going to throw that right straight down the pipe.

Efrain's got a size and reach advantage over Tyson in terms of striking. What he was able to do with counters, is going to be hard for Tyson.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-11-10, 05:35 PM

Keeping in mind that they come from the same camp, I wonder how often Dunham and Tyson have rolled together at Xtreme Couture...?

If they know each other well enough, could that perhaps lend even more reason it will go to decision? If each can anticipate their foes next move, this fight could be a stalemate...

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 05:40 PM

I've been thinking this fight between Cro Cop and Pat Barry has a pretty good chance of ending by TKO or KO.

This is Cro Cop's last fight on his current UFC contract and he's stated that after the fight he will either re-sign with the UFC or retire. This is pretty close to a win or go home situation for Cro Cop. He's got to win and it's got to be a decisive win for contract negotiations. I don't think fighting for a decision is really going to be in the cards.

Pat Barry's the perfect opponent here. Pat lacks the size to really clinch with Cro Cop and slow this fight down to turn it into a decision. He's also a guy who isn't a afraid to exchange strikes and there's not going to be any circling away from Pat. He's going to be standing firm and throwing strikes. Barry's got nothing to lose here all he needs to do is go out and put on a show. Forget about defense in this one, I think you're going to have guys swinging for the fences from the start.

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 08:10 PM

You know if Tyson comes in with the same game plan he had against Marcus Aurelio, then I can see him taking the fight by decision.

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 08:17 PM

I'm with you on Cro Cop... bookmaker just moved Barry to -195

line goes any higher and I'll be priced in, might just do another straddle with crocop +155 and Barry by decision... not sure though since I already have a play on the distance

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 08:29 PM

Did you see Pat Barry at the weighins today? That dude looked like he was just happy to be there and not a care in the world.

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 08:31 PM

the press conference with him and Cro-Cop was pretty funny yesterday, Barry couldn't even keep a straight face during the staredown

after watching Dunham dwarf Tyson at the weigh-ins, i think you're right about him being 5'3

**Chairib** · 06-11-10, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

the press conference with him and Cro-Cop was pretty funny yesterday, Barry couldn't even keep a straight face during the staredown

after watching Dunham dwarf Tyson at the weigh-ins, i think you're right about him being 5'3

I told you dude, he's a really short guy. Him, Sean Sherk, and Hermes Franca are all around 5'3 or 5'4. Tyson's got short legs but he's thick as hell around the quads.

**illmatick** · 06-11-10, 09:16 PM

tyson has some tree trunks, that's for sure, that's probably the only reason he didn't tap to that akward leg compression from DOS ANJOS, something would have probably snapped on an avg size quad

I just checked your twitter Charib, pretty cool that Joey left a few comments,

if you get a chance to ask him, find out what he was thinking on opening GSP at only -340, seems like an incredibly soft line to me.. that thing is going to get so much action, I would have expected something around -420

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 01:43 PM

bought back for .5 units on Condit +130(betjam)

**illmatick** · 06-12-10, 02:16 PM

I don't believe this shit charib.. Joey just gave out a play on David loiseau as his best bet on the undercard.. that sorry bastard must have gotten pounded on Miranda and just wants to even out his action

**Educ8d Degener8** · 06-12-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

I don't believe this shit charib.. Joey just gave out a play on David loiseau as his best bet on the undercard.. that sorry bastard must have gotten pounded on Miranda and just wants to even out his action

On a card filled with bouts over which many I'm torn and won't be playing, the Miranda play is one I will

I expect Miranda to try to get it to the mat as soon as possible, unlike his match with Harris in which he gamed it standing (and got clipped). So if he can weather Loiseau's strikes and get it down, I'm looking for a Miranda UD. Chance of a TKO via GnP or a sub, but Loiseau is one tough finish... Only concern is that Loiseau gets baited into standing and trading with Loiseau -- the hometown (for Loiseau) boo birds will be out in full force if Miranda is controlling it on the ground for an extended time, I would presume. Miranda needs to get it down to the mat where he'll have a clear advantage, and keep it there.