[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN2 10:00 pm ET
Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter
Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich
Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato
Devin Clark vs. Anthony Smith

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Norma Dumont vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith
Martin Day vs. Anderson dos Santos
Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Malcolm Gordon vs. Su Mudaerji
Nate Maness vs. Luke Sanders
Bill Alego vs. Spike Carlyle
Kai Kamaka vs Jonathan Pearce

[unlearn]

I've legit heard of 2 fighters outside of the main card

[magpie878]

I only know 4, I think.

I am definitely curious about that main event.. I expect another wrestlefock from one side and a potentially boring fight. Lewis has been subbed by a good wrestler, and Blaydes has been TKO'd by a big puncher, so I guess it COULD be good. But could be pretty bad.

[hankcream]

1 early parlay: Spike Carlyle & Baeza 3 units to win 4.68 units

[frankieunits2685]

I’m really looking forward to Fiziev/Moiciano.

[hankcream]

I’m really looking forward to Fiziev/Moiciano.

Would have been one of the best fights on the card but it got postponed a couple of weeks Moicano

[WolfTicketDealer]

Pretty weak betting card. Got Blaydes and some Luke Sanders at dog money but gonna be a small event. Thankfully there were some weak openers for the 12/5 and 12/12 (and should be other good opps!).

[frankieunits2685]

Per a press release, Moicano vs. Fiziev is being shifted to UFC 256.

[frankieunits2685]

Per a press release, Moicano vs. Fiziev is being shifted to UFC 256.

Jonathan Pearce and Kai Kamaka have been added to the card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pretty weak betting card. Got Blaydes and some Luke Sanders at dog money but gonna be a small event. Thankfully there were some weak openers for the 12/5 and 12/12 (and should be other good opps!).

Agreed. Have some Blaydes from awhile back and would have taken Sanders (+150) but missed the boat. Might be interested in him if he comes back to (+100) or better.

[hankcream]

Ngannou has knocked Blaydes out twice, The Black Beast isn't as good as Ngannou but he does have power. How do you not take a shot at Lewis by KO/TKO + 400 and Lewis to win in 1st round +1000

[magpie878]

Ngannou has knocked Blaydes out twice, The Black Beast isn't as good as Ngannou but he does have power. How do you not take a shot at Lewis by KO/TKO + 400 and Lewis to win in 1st round +1000

To add on to that point, if anyone is taking Lewis, you don't take the ML. KO/TKO is the only option.

[PaperTrail07]

Man how Smith has fallen....Is he really going to be outworked and taken down by Clark....wow...

[PaperTrail07]

That said....if he is still AT ALL in the game Smith should win this fight....

[Sanity Check]

Home invasion might have affected him.

Like Brandon Vera.

[Thrilla]

Home invasion might have affected him.

Like Brandon Vera.

Home invasion pretty recent right?

[Thrilla]

[vegasbb]

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis (tomorrow night’s UFC main event) has been canceled

Blaydes has tested positive for ** flu

[PaperTrail07]

God DAMMIT.....

[PaperTrail07]

Devin Clark and Smith the new Main LOL...?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Smh

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA write ups - Prelims







125 lbs.: Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon

Su Mudaerji (12-4) — who joined UFC on the heels of a submission loss — almost certainly felt some deja vu when Louis Smolka dispatched him in similar fashion. He rebounded brilliantly nine months later, however, dominating Andre Soukhamthath in Shenzhen.
He fights for the first time since Aug. 2019, having withdrawn from a March clash with Bruno Silva.
Malcom Gordon (12-4) twice defended his TKO Flyweight title in impressive fashion, submitting James Mancini and The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Yoni Sherbatov, before stepping up on short notice to face Aleksander Doskalchuk on “Fight Island.” When Doskalchuk withdrew, “Malcolm X” instead faced Amir Albazi, who gave him a taste of his own medicine with a first-round triangle.
He has submitted six professional opponents and knocked out four others.
Beating up Andre Soukhamthath may not be a particularly laudable feat, as “The Asian Sensation” has turned self-sabotage into an art form, but it’s hard not to be impressed by Mudaerji’s improvements. If that effort was genuinely indicative of a souped-up game and not just a product of Soukhamthath imploding again, there’s every reason to think the Tibetan makes it two straight here. He’s got a significant edge in firepower over Gordon, who’ll struggle to impose his slickster stylings against a longer, taller, more versatile striker.
The X-factor, of course, is Gordon’s wrestling. Poor takedown defense spelled the end for Mudaerji against Smolka, and standing up to Soukhamthath’s wrestling isn’t sufficient evidence that he’s completely fixed that issue. Still, I favor Mudaerji to catch him with something nasty in a back-and-forth striking battle.
Prediction: Mudaerji via first-round technical knockout
Related
Finalized! UFC Vegas 15 Fight Card, ESPN+ Lineup


135 lbs.: Luke Sanders vs. Nathan Maness

Following a dominant, bonus-winning submission of Maximo Blanco in his UFC debut, Luke Sanders (13-3) fell into a 1-3 skid, all three defeats coming by stoppage. “Cool Hand” Luke managed to right the ship somewhat in 2019, smashing former champion Renan Barao to win “Fight of the Night.”
This will be his first fight in 21 months.
Nathan Maness (12-1) snapped Jesse Arnett’s 12-fight winning streak to win the TKO Bantamweight belt, but failed to retain it against UFC veteran Taylor Lapilus in his first defense. After a get-well win in his native Kentucky, he joined UFC in August and handed late-notice replacement Johnny Munoz Jr. the first loss of his professional career.
Though four inches taller than Sanders, he’ll have just a one-inch reach advantage.
Sanders actually opened as an underdog, which surprised me. Sure, he’s had his fair share of struggles in the Octagon, but Maness only barely got past Munoz in his Octagon debut and was thoroughly shredded by Lapilus. “Cool Hand” Luke is the bigger hitter by a fair margin, and though he’s the shorter of the two, Maness has never been particularly adept at maximizing his size advantage.
Even acknowledging Sanders’ proclivity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, this doesn’t figure to be too difficult for him, especially since Maness lacks the power or submission skills to punish Sanders’ lapses the way Andre Soukhamthath and Iuri Alcantara did. In the end, Sanders beats him up on the feet for either a mid-round stoppage or comfortable decision.
Prediction: Sanders via second-round technical knockout
Related
UFC Vegas 15 Poster Drops For ‘Blaydes Vs. Lewis’


145 lbs.: Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo

Despite entering the world’s MMA fight promotion on the heels of four consecutive wins, Spike Carlyle (9-2) found himself an underdog against “Contender Series” standout Aalon Cruz in his debut, only to flip the script with an 85-second knockout. Then came Billy Quarantillo, who out-lasted “The Alpha Ginger” en route to a close decision victory.
His eight finishes, split 5/3 between knockouts and submissions, include seven in the first round.
Bill Algeo (13-5) saw a four-fight win streak end at the hands of Brendan Loughnane on the Contender Series, though he started his 2020 campaign strong by beating Tim Dooling in August. Just 16 days later, he stepped up on short notice to face Ricardo Lamas, falling just short in a “Fight of the Night”-winning slugfest.
“Senor Perfecto” stands four inches taller than Carlyle and will enjoy a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
Considering the three takedowns Algeo gave up to Loughnane and the five he surrendered to Lamas, it’s safe to say that he won’t be staying on his feet for long; Carlyle’s going to be on him like Mike Perry on a cheeseburger from the opening bell. Algeo’s task, then, is to survive Carlyle’s mauling top control long enough to turn things around when the latter starts to fade. Quarantillo just barely pulled it off, but I’m not convinced Algeo can do the same.
Even if “Senor Perfecto” does manage to take things into deep waters, I’m not sure he has the stopping power to put Carlyle away in the brief stretches where he’s not fighting off takedowns. Carlyle should pound him out early, and even if he doesn’t, he’ll build up enough of an early lead to get the win.
Prediction: Carlyle via first-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Kai Kamaka vs. Jonathan Pearce

Undefeated since a 2-2 pro start, Kai Kamaka (8-2) scored wins in KOTC, Bellator and LFA en route to an August UFC debut against Tony Kelley. It wound up being one to remember, earning both men “Fight of the Night” bonuses after three entertaining rounds.
He replaces Sean Woodson on a week’s notice.
Jonathan Pearce (9-4) — four stoppage wins removed from a three-fight skid — secured himself a UFC contract by knocking out Jacob Rosales on “Contender Series.” This set up an Octagon debut against Joe Lauzon, who shockingly mauled the favored “JSP” in just 93 seconds.
All of his wins since 2015 have come by stoppage, six of them via form of knockout.
Getting smashed by the battered husk of Joe Lauzon is a bad look for anyone, and the way in which he got smashed is especially concerning. Kamaka has the boxing skill to punish Pearce’s leaky defense and the takedowns to dominate on the mat the way Lauzon did. “JSP” will find it difficult to get his pressure going when Kamaka can drag him to the mat whenever things start to get hairy.
That said, Pearce is the notably larger man and Kamaka’s had cardio issues before, which make the former’s relentless aggression a potential threat. He’ll have to both keep it standing and get past Kamaka’s hands to make it work, though, and I don’t see him doing either. I suspect Kamaka banks at least the first two rounds through sharp boxing and long stretches of top control.
Prediction: Kamaka via unanimous decision



135 lbs.: Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Norma Dumont

Consecutive wins over Marion Reneau and Veronica Macedo gave way to two straight losses, sending Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-4) from Bantamweight to Flyweight. She started her 125-pound run strong with a decision over Bec Rawlings, but failed to do the same to Andrea Lee in her second effort.
This marks her first appearance in 21 months.
Norma Dumont (4-1) — out of action for 1.5 years — stepped up in weight to face Megan Anderson in her February debut. The move proved ill-advised, as Anderson slept her with a right hand late in the first round.
“Imortal” has scored two first-round rear-naked choke finishes as a professional.
It’s difficult to get a clear idea of Dumont’s potential because there isn’t much pre-UFC footage of her and she spent most of that Anderson fight just holding her against the fence. Evans-Smith’s potential, by contrast, is both very obvious and very limited. Her wrestling credentials failed to properly transition to the cage and her striking could best be described as “adequate.”
In the end, I have to go with the known over the unknown, even if that “known” is underwhelming. Evans-Smith has at least faced a far tougher strength of schedule, and should be able to grind her way to a narrow decision.
Prediction: Evans-Smith via split decision
Related
UFC Vegas 15 Poster Drops For ‘Blaydes Vs. Lewis’


135 lbs.: Martin Day vs. Anderson dos Santos

Martin Day (8-4) put an unsuccessful “Contender Series” bid behind him to win three straight, only to drop a controversial decision to Liu Pingyuan in his Octagon debut. He would not fight again for nearly two years, at which point he lost a firefight to Davey Grant in July.
He stands five inches taller than “Berinja” at 5’10.”
Anderson dos Santos (20-8) made a two-week turnaround and stepped up in weight to face Nad Narimani in his 2018 Octagon debut, a bold move that sadly failed to pay dividends. He kept it far closer against Andre Ewell seven months later, but still couldn’t secure his first UFC victory.
Thanks to a failed COVID test scratching a July clash with Jack Shore, this will be his first fight in 17 months.
Shore would have utterly brutalized dos Santos. Day — though not nearly as promising as “Tank” nor as stylistically toxic to “Berinja” — figures to find plenty of success. He boasts a notable striking edge over the much shorter dos Santos, and while Day has some shaky takedown defense, dos Santos failed to get his grappling going against a far less competent wrestler in Ewell.
So long as Day doesn’t go too crazy with the spinning s—t and give dos Santos easy takedowns, he should be able to take the Brazilian apart at long range without issue. He uses those height and reach advantages to the fullest as he potshots his way to victory.
Prediction: Day via unanimous decision
Related
Finalized! UFC Vegas 15 Fight Card, ESPN+ Lineup


125 lbs.: Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Amir Albazi (13-1) bounced back from his career-first loss to Jose “Shorty” Torres with a first-round submission of Ryan Curtis, setting up an eventual Octagon debut against reigning TKO champion Malcolm Gordon. The ground game of “The Prince” proved too much for “Malcolm X,” whom he caught in a triangle choke late in the first.
Seven of his 12 professional stoppages have come by submission.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-4) took a narrow decision over top prospect Tagir Ulanbekov to claim the Fight Nights Global Flyweight championship, then did the same to former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov in his inaugural defense. Fortune failed him in his Octagon debut, however, as he dropped a controversial decision to Raulian Paiva in July.
He gives up an inch of height and two inches of reach to Albazi.
To his credit, “Zhako” did much better than I anticipated against Paiva, whom I’d tabbed as a terrible stylistic match up. Still, this looks like an Albazi win. That’s because “The Prince” can keep up with him on the feet and has the wrestling chops to recreate Ulanbekov’s largely successful efforts against the fence. As good a scrambler as Zhumagulov is, he’ll struggle to get those haymakers going in the face of Albazi’s pressure and takedown onslaught.
Albazi isn’t the hardest guy to hit, so Zhumagulov definitely has a chance to clip him at any point in the fight, but expect Albazi to rack up enough top control time to secure the win.
Prediction: Albazi via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main card few more write ups..


Heavyweight: Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter

Best Win for Parisian? Chad Johnson For Porter? Dirlei Broenstrup
Current Streak: Parisian has won six straight (including his most recent on “Contender Series”), whereas Porter recently lost his Octagon debut
X-Factor: UFC jitters for Parisian?
How these two match up: Low-level Heavyweight action at its finest (or worst).
Parisian isn’t the usual Heavyweight. Despite weighing in at 265 pounds, Parisian has some speed, and he uses it to throw flashier techniques like spinning back fists. If he’s able to gain top position, he’s dangerous with both submission and ground strikes. Porter also tops the scales at the Heavyweight limit, but he’s the more predictable mix of winging hooks and takedowns along the fence.
Are my expectations particularly high for either man? No, not really. Between the two, however, Parisian is simply more impressive. He’s younger, a better athlete, has wins over a high caliber of competition — the works. Porter, meanwhile, was utterly blown out of the water in his UFC debut.
I have no reason to believe the sequel will go differently.
Prediction: Parisian via knockout
Related
Blaydes Needs Big Payday To Fight ‘Bones’

---

Women’s Flyweight: Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich

Best Win for Mazany? ** Yanan For Ostovich? Ariel Beck
Current Streak: Mazany came up short last time out, while Ostovich has lost two straight
X-Factor: Will Mazany make weight at 125 lbs.?
How these two match up: I fully expect a sloppy grappling match.
Mazany, 32, brings a 1-4 UFC record into this contest. She faces an unfortunate situation where better athletes are often able to overwhelm her quickly and end the fight in an instant. When not outmatched physically, Mazany does have a decent boxing and jiu-jitsu game.
Ostovich’s overall record is 4-5, so this is not exactly a wash (nor should it be a main card fight). She has something of an opposite issue to Mazany, as Ostovich is a pretty talented athlete, but the Hawaiian has run into struggles against more technical opponents.
These two will throw hands right away, and perhaps Ostovich can take Mazany out immediately. More likely, neither can maintain boxing distance, and they instead crash into the clinch, where someone starts scoring takedowns.
My money is on Ostovich. Even if she is put on her back early, it’s unlikely that Mazany can maintain pace with Ostovich. Eventually, Ostovich is going to gain top position, and once that happens, she’s likely to stay ahead.
Prediction: Ostovich via decision
Related
UFC Vegas 15 Just Lost Another Fight ...

---

Welterweight: Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Best Win for Baeza? Matt Brown For Sato? Ben Saunders
Current Streak: Baeza is undefeated at 9-0 with two wins inside the Octagon, while Sato returned to the win column last time out
X-Factor: Will one of the strikers mix it up with a takedown?
How these two match up: Finally, a good f—king fight.
Florida’s Baeza is a smooth kickboxer with considerable power in his hands. Seven of his nine victories come via knockout, including his most recent counter striking performance against Brown, which saw Baeza overcome adversity before gliding around the cage and picking the veteran apart.
Sato is another Welterweight puncher, and he’s stopped 11 of his past opponents. Sato is in a strange situation where he’s pretty easily stopped two foes who are not exactly UFC caliber, but his only loss inside the Octagon came to a ranked opponent.
So, he can beat weak opposition and lose to top-tier foes ... which probably describes most UFC Welterweights.
At any rate, we have a kickboxing match on our hands! Both athletes have very nice footwork, as Baeza manages range well, and Sato excels at suddenly closing the gab with a powerful one-two combination. Since this is likely to be a competitive battle at distance, I like what I’ve seen from Baeza’s movement, and his advantages in height and reach are also helpful.
The younger “Caramel Thunder” remains undefeated inside the Octagon.
Prediction: Baeza via decision
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 15 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 15 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

---

Light Heavyweight: Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark

Best Win for Smith? Volkan Oezdemir For Clark? Alonzo Menifield
Current Streak: Smith has lost consecutive bouts, whereas Clark has won two straight
X-Factor: Can Smith rebound from some brutal losses?
How these two match up: This is one of the most important fights on the card.
Smith was an unlikely contender at 205 pounds, then reality came crashing back down in the form of dominant losses to Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. Smith was ejected from the title mix as a result, but now the veteran will look to start climbing his way back up.
Smith is a Muay Thai specialist with some crafty jiu-jitsu.
Clark is an example of a fighter brought to the big show by physical gifts. He’s a tremendous athlete with a good wrestling background, but Clark’s inexperience saw him struggle a bit against more established 205-pounders. Perhaps that’s turning around though, as Clark has now won three of his last four.
Has Clark developed enough to survive dangerous positions against a veteran finisher like “Lionheart?” Has Smith slipped enough to get dominated by a fairly one-note wrestler? One of those two things must be true for “Brown Bear” to pick up the win.
If this fight happens again in two years, I may feel differently. At the moment, however, Smith’s recent struggles are not enough to suggest that he cannot punish Clark’s straight-forward striking or catch him exhausted in the fight with a knee or strangle.
Prediction: Smith via knockout

[JIBBBY]

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis (tomorrow night’s UFC main event) has been canceled

Blaydes has tested positive for ** flu

I'm not sure how I would have bet that fight anyways at the odds being offered up? I would have went with Blaydes as he's the wrestler and I know he would have put Beast on his back and grind it out to decision or probably pound him out.

All I know is I would have been on Blaydes though.

[Sanity Check]

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis (tomorrow night’s UFC main event) has been canceled

Blaydes has tested positive for ** flu

Its shady that he tested positive so late.

Too late for the UFC to find a replacement.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

1.1u Martin Day -158


1.1u Ashlee Evans-Smith -145


0.55u Rachael Ostovich +170


1.1u Fighter Wins Inside Distance - Miguel Baeza +125


1.1u Josh Parisian by KO/TKO or DQ -125


1.1u Anthony Smith vs Devin Clark - Fight Starts Round 3 - Yes -165


1.1u Parlay
Su Mudaerji -360
Kai Kamaka III -300
Martin Day -158
(+178)


0.55u Performance Bonus Winners - Spike Carlyle +250
0.55u Performance Bonus Winners - Bill Algeo +400

[PaperTrail07]

[BIGDAY]

It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!

[dvb02]

Has it started? If so, anyone have a good stream?

[frankieunits2685]

Has it started? If so, anyone have a good stream?

Prelims start at 8pm EST.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 42: Smith vs. Clark Picks:
Luke Sanders Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Su Mudaerji Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Rachael Ostovich Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Martin Day Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Kai Kamaka Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Ashlee Evans-Smith Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Bill Algeo Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Josh Parisian Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Miguel Baeza Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Anthony Smith Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 42: Smith vs. Clark

ESPN 2 Prelims:

Fight #1: Sanders vs. Maness
Sanders (-128) 1.02u to win 0.8u
Sanders KO/TKO (+400) 0.25u

Hedge:
Maness KO/TKO (+600) 0.12u

Fight #2: Mudaerji vs. M. Gordon
Mudaerji ITD (-110) 0.25u to win 0.23u
Mudaerji KO/TKO (+180) 0.35u
Mudaerji Round 1 (+220) 0.15u

Fight #3: Ostovich vs. Mazany
Ostovich (+115) 0.3u
Ostovich Submission (+700) 0.1u

Fight #4: Day vs. A. Dos Santos
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #5: Kamaka vs. Pearce
Kamaka Submission (+725) 0.2u

Fight #6: Evans-Smith vs. Dumont
Evans-Smith (+105) 0.75u
Evans-Smith KO/TKO (+800) 0.15u

Fight #7: Algeo vs. Carlyle
Algeo (+150) 0.25u

Fight #8: Parisian (DEBUT) vs. Porter
No Bet

Fight #9: Baeza vs. Sato
Baeza -3.5 (-105) 0.15u to win 0.14u
Baeza Decision (+470) 0.25u
Baeza Round 2 KO/TKO (+650) 0.1u

Fight #10: A. Smith vs. D. Clark
A. Smith ITD (+130) 0.5u
A. Smith Submission (+450) 0.12u

Straight Parlays:
Kamaka/Baeza (+119) 0.25u
Baeza/A. Smith (+200) 0.15u

Prop Parlays:
Mazany Decision/Algeo Decision (+800) 0.1u
A. Smith KO/Blaydes KO (+981) 0.2u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Soldic/Blaydes (-132) +0.2u
Romanov+Rogerio De Lima WGD/Barcelos/Blaydes (+110) +0.41u

[pavyracer]

Thanks for the plays Hugo!

Lets go bankrupt the books!

[dawg58kahn]

is there a food contest tonightt?

[dawg58kahn]

i have put my biggest ever ufc bet on ostovich. she is hot too

$2000