UFC Picks by vassman!

**vassman86** · 09-17-09, 12:20 AM

UFC 103

Belfort +125 over Franklin
Belfort is back! He's returning to the UFC and coming off of four straight wins [3 T(KO)s, 1 Dec]. The way I see it, Belfort is back in his groove, he's regained confidence with his striking, and we're gonna see it this Saturday. I expect Belfort to keep this on his feet and get the TKO

Miller +140 over Escudero
So much value in this one. Escudero's last fight was 9-months ago...was he pregnant? I don't know. But I'll assume he's got some ring rust. Let's take a look at both fighters' betting odds in their previous fights

Escudero +280 vs Phillipe Nover -340

Miller -140 vs Junie Browning +145
Miller -143 vs Gurgel +133
Miller -160 vs Stephens +155
Miller -145 vs Garcia +115
Miller -450 vs Andy Wang +350

Escudero put on the most boring, lackluster fight for a TUFinale next to Matt Serra's performance. Escudero is a wrestler and will want to take it to the ground for a submission attempt, or more likely: lay and pray. Cole Miller comes to fight. He brings intensity to the octagon everytime. He's no slouch on the ground either. I expect that Miller to trade punches, and if it goes to the ground, then so be it. Miller shouldn't be an underdog for this fight. UFC betting is all a popularity contest.
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I'll be playing Belfort and Miller for sure, undecided on the unit amount though. More to come

**vassman86** · 09-19-09, 02:52 PM

Damn, both Miller and Belfort's odds got a lot worse since the time of my posting. My local book doesn't offer UFC lines until the day of. So as of today, I've got:

Vitor Belfort +105, $200 to win $210
Cole Miller +120, $100 to win $120

Good luck to everyone. Should be a fun event to watch

**The HOFF** · 09-19-09, 02:58 PM

Cole Miller looks like a very solid bet.

**Bread** · 09-19-09, 03:15 PM

Welcome vassman. Another MMA guy

**likewhoaa** · 09-19-09, 03:23 PM

Ya I'm on Belfort @ +145 begining of the week ....$$$

**vassman86** · 09-19-09, 03:54 PM

One other fight I'm considering is Dos Santos -155 (at my book), if the line were lower, I'd already have money on it, but as I mentioned earlier, my book doesn't offer lines until the day of the event.

The way I see it, Dos Santos is younger, stronger and faster than CroCop, and we're gonna witness it tonight. Both fighters are known for their striking, so you can expect the fight to stay on the feet. Dos Santos' 6'4 height should give him a reach advantage over CroCop's 6'2 frame as well.

Ever since CroCop was knocked out by Gonzaga, I feel like he can't evoke the same fear into his opponents as he used to. UFC fighters aren't scared of him, not nearly as scared as PRIDE fighters were.

I have a few hours to pull the trigger on the Dos Santos. I guess I'll ponder for now.

**EmceeDusty** · 09-19-09, 04:03 PM

Dos Santos is gonna knock out Crocop. Franklin is gonna be to much for Belfort and send him back to his acting career in LA.

**The HOFF** · 09-19-09, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by vassman86

The way I see it, Dos Santos is younger, stronger and faster than CroCop, and we're gonna witness it tonight.

Sounds like Shogun vs Liddell.

Go with the Dos!

**vassman86** · 09-20-09, 02:31 AM

What an awesome PPV! None of the fights on the main card went to a decision

I still can't believe they showed the Emerson/Dos Anjos fight for the sole purpose of killing time. What a waste of life that was.

Betting-wise, Miller got owned! Despite getting knocked out, I think he was doing good: keeping a good pace and distance, but everyone makes mistakes (except Anderson Silva, lol). At least Belfort got the job done. I wasn't able to bet on Dos Santos because the lines were closed a few minutes before the fight started.

UFC 103 Results
1-1, 50%, +0.05 units
________________________________________ _
From what I saw tonight and from Wednesday night's UFN19, here are some fighters that I look forward to betting on in upcoming events:

Paul Daley - wow...TKO'd Kampmann! A bit of an early stoppage, but no doubt he deserved that win. 17 of his 22 wins are via (T)KO. You can bet that he's caught the attention of the bookies and we probably will never see him as a +300 dog again.

Jake Ellenberger - Trust me, this guy is a big, strong welterweight. I don't know how Carlos Condit managed to weather out all of those vicious punches to the face. Condit is no slouch on the ground, and I'm surprised Ellenberger was able to avoid being submitted. I see Ellenberger as legitamate betting material.

Cole Miller - Even though he lost tonight, he's still a warrior in my book. He's a fighter with potential, and I'll be looking forward to betting on him again.

Rick Story/Brian Foster - I loved how these two were slugging it out from the get go. If only all UFC fights were this exciting. Haymaker after haymaker! Either way, I saw these two eat some pretty nasty shots. I'll keep an eye on both of them in the future.

**Bread** · 09-20-09, 08:32 AM

Come on vass....you didn't enjoy watching Emerson's thighs getting turned into porridge right before your very eyes? That fight was awesome.

**vassman86** · 09-20-09, 02:32 PM

lol, nahh, the UFC should've played some of the more exciting prelims if they wanted to kill time in between the main card. They should've played those long ass decision fights after the main event.

**illmatick** · 09-20-09, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by vassman86

What an awesome PPV! None of the fights on the main card went to a decision

I still can't believe they showed the Emerson/Dos Anjos fight for the sole purpose of killing time. What a waste of life that was.

Betting-wise, Miller got owned! Despite getting knocked out, I think he was doing good: keeping a good pace and distance, but everyone makes mistakes (except Anderson Silva, lol). At least Belfort got the job done. I wasn't able to bet on Dos Santos because the lines were closed a few minutes before the fight started.

UFC 103 Results
1-1, 50%, +0.05 units
________________________________________ _
From what I saw tonight and from Wednesday night's UFN19, here are some fighters that I look forward to betting on in upcoming events:

Paul Daley - wow...TKO'd Kampmann! A bit of an early stoppage, but no doubt he deserved that win. 17 of his 22 wins are via (T)KO. You can bet that he's caught the attention of the bookies and we probably will never see him as a +300 dog again.

Jake Ellenberger - Trust me, this guy is a big, strong welterweight. I don't know how Carlos Condit managed to weather out all of those vicious punches to the face. Condit is no slouch on the ground, and I'm surprised Ellenberger was able to avoid being submitted. I see Ellenberger as legitamate betting material.

Cole Miller - Even though he lost tonight, he's still a warrior in my book. He's a fighter with potential, and I'll be looking forward to betting on him again.

Rick Story/Brian Foster - I loved how these two were slugging it out from the get go. If only all UFC fights were this exciting. Haymaker after haymaker! Either way, I saw these two eat some pretty nasty shots. I'll keep an eye on both of them in the future.

agree with everything you said about the future lines and value on these fighters, just blindly I want to take ellenberger in his next fight at anything under -200, Daley should be live against Swick but I hear bad things about his ground game, Cole miller should have value in his next fight and Efrain is even better than he looked in his k.o victory!!!! trust me on that one

**vassman86** · 09-23-09, 04:50 PM

Another fighter I'll be watching is Luiz Cane. I recall his fight against Sodkoujou and I gave him such little credit going into the fight. I thought he wouldn't be able to withstand Sok's power and athleticism, but he sure proved me wrong.
I like that Cane is a smart fighter. He maintained his tempo and waited for Sok to exhaust himself. His striking was crisp and well timed; reminded me of Anderson Silva. I'll be betting on him to win his next fight

**vassman86** · 10-14-09, 12:02 AM

UFC 104
Alright, it's been a while since I've posted on this thread, so here's the update. UFC 104 is just around the corner, and the fight lines have been pretty steady ever since they've been released.

Rothwell +230 over Velasquez
I have to go against the grain on this one. Judging by what I've seen from Velasquez, I've decided that -285 is way too much to pay for him right now. I feel that he's an over-rated, over-hyped fighter. A reason for that would be that there aren't many HW contenders in the UFC. Within the past 12 months, the HW division hasn't shown much potential. We've seen contenders rise and fall. For example, Cheick Kongo, GG, and Brandon Vera (who's now a LHW). That's all the heavyweight division has to offer, and we've seen that all three of those "top contenders" can be easily beaten.

To me, Velasquez falls right into this category. In his last fight against Kongo, we saw him get clipped, rocked, and stumble in all three rounds (or maybe two). If Kongo wasn't so scared of being submitted and just went for the kill, I'm confident he would've walked away with the win. To make matters worse for Velasquez, anytime he got Kongo to the ground (which was for about an entire 10 minutes of the fight), he failed to materialize any significant damage, or a submission for that matter.

So why do I think Rothwell will be the one to bring Velasquez down? Last year, we got to see Rothwell take on Andre Arlovski. Rothwell was able to stand with Arlovski until he was knocked out in the third round. Arlovski is known for being fast on his feet and is undoubtedly the most nimble HW I've seen. So for Rothwell to stand in the ring for 3 rounds with AA, that definitely speaks words to me.

Though I'm not sure what kind of strategy Rothwell and his camp will employ, I'm not too concerned. Rothwell is 265lb heavyweight, and I'm sure Velasquez will have a run into a much tougher opponent than Kongo.

**vassman86** · 10-14-09, 12:19 AM

UFC 104
Hardonk vs Barry (Decision pending)
Plain and simple: these two will keep it on the feet. May the better striker win. Know this: Hardonk is 6'4 and 245lbs, Barry is 5'11 and 230lbs. Not the hugest difference in terms of weight, but having a 5" reach advantage can have its benefits in a fight that's destined to be a stand-up war.

I'm watching videos of Pat Barry, and his striking is really impressive. More write-up on the way.

**Boddhissatva** · 10-14-09, 11:02 AM

I gotta disagree with you regarding the Rothwell fight.

I do agree with you regarding the Cheik Kongo analysis. Kongo should have won that fight.

But the striking employed by Kongo is way superior to Rothwell. Rothwell is going to be to slow and sluggish for a younger, hungrier more crisp striker we see in Velasquez.

If Cain is smart, he will begin the the fight with leg kicks and chop this tree down.
But then again...the odds are tempting...
I might just put a little wager on Rothwell...because he's be in the game a while and has been known to grind out fights. He might just smother Velasquez and neutralize his offense.

**vassman86** · 10-19-09, 07:30 PM

UFC 104
Okami -235 over Sonnen
I like Okami to win this fight straight up. I also feel this fight is worthy of throwing into parlays as I'm confident that Sonnen cannot beat Okami. In his MMA career, Okami has only lost 4 times, which came in the form of three decisions, and one TKO. On top of that, his only loss in the UFC was a decision loss to Rich Franklin. Okami is 7-1 in the UFC.

To me, Sonnen does not pose enough of a threat on his feet to TKO Okami, nor does he possess the submission skills required to pull off a submission. This fight will most likely end in a decision victory for Okami.

Historically, going into a fight as a ML favourite, Okami is 3-0, and I look forward to him improving that record.

**Astrodust3** · 10-20-09, 02:32 AM

Totally agree with Rothwell taking this one. I've looked at both fighters and Rothwell wins this fight 7 out of 10 times.

**illmatick** · 10-20-09, 02:41 AM

Velasquez will be a max wager for me, honestly dont see too many ways rothwell can win this other than a lucky punch, getting the takedown for velasquez will not be a problem

**Boddhissatva** · 10-20-09, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Velasquez will be a max wager for me, honestly dont see too many ways rothwell can win this other than a lucky punch, getting the takedown for velasquez will not be a problem

When this fight was first announced, I was going to hammer away on Velasquez...cuz it seemed that Rothwell was tailor made for Cain.

Velasquez certainly has the speed and agility factor in his favor...

Prior to his fight with Kongo, I thought this guy was going to be the next big thing...but the fight exposed many weaknesses and as I mentioned in another thread, the only reason why Cain won that fight was because his opponent had no ground game to speak of.

Rothwell is a veteran of the sport and might use his mere size to exhaust Cain on the ground (assuming he gets the takedown) and the man hits hard.

I plan to make a small wager on Rothwell, only because of the Odds are screaming at me.

**teaserpleaser** · 10-20-09, 10:46 AM

anybody find a line for chase Gormley vs stephen struve?? Gormley is my ex training partner going to dec struve at worst.

**teaserpleaser** · 10-20-09, 10:47 AM

Rothwell is real solid but i dont think he has anything for cain... cain is better in all areas. I'd be shocked if Rothwell can stop the takedown. But i think Cain will pound him out standing. GL.

**Boddhissatva** · 10-20-09, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by teaserpleaser

Rothwell is real solid but i dont think he has anything for cain... cain is better in all areas. I'd be shocked if Rothwell can stop the takedown. But i think Cain will pound him out standing. GL.

Yeah, I tend to agree with you on this one...but the odds are tempting me...

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 11:40 AM

I think Cain has the speed and intensity to beat Rothwell.

**The HOFF** · 10-20-09, 11:59 AM

I originally thought I would dump a lot on Velasquez. But now I would wait until the weigh-ins to make a wager on the Velasquez/Rothwell fight. Everything I have been reading says that Rothwell has busted his ass and has really gotten into shape and dropped the beer belly.

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 01:46 PM

Cain fights bigger stronger guys the way you're supposed to fight bigger stronger guys... like he's not afraid of them. I think it's safe to say he won't be looking to coast standing up and just throw a few here and there and win that way and he won't lay and pray. He will work the whole fight for the win. Ben Rothwell is good but his cardio is always in question.

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 02:02 PM

I will also play Rothwell seperately. Can't completely dismiss his experience and power.

**Eccocide** · 10-20-09, 05:20 PM

I think a lot of ppl are underestimating Rothwell. The guy has great cardio, good takedown defense, and has much better standup than Cain. I don't think Cain can hold him down like he did Kongo for te whole fight. These odds are based on the massive hype train the UFC has built around Cain. Rothwell is worth a small play IMO. But don't listen to me - I have taken Shogun as well

. You can come make fun of me when I do my write-ups

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 05:39 PM

Rothwell would have probably lost to Arlovski by decision anyway, but he got TKO'ed because of cardio after all that damage he took.

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 05:44 PM

Cain is hyped like a mofo. the first latino heavyweight, undefeated, college wrestler etc etc. but he is good and has a lot of courage. With heavyweights it usually comes down to who is faster on the feet and who can control it on the ground.

**Eccocide** · 10-20-09, 05:44 PM

Have you seen his other fights? I don't question his cardio at all. I think he was nervous in that fight and over-exerted himself when it went to the ground. Watch his IFL fights or even before that and you will see his figure has little to do with his cardio. Plus he's supposed to be making a big impression at the weigh-ins as Hoff eluded to. We shall see.

As well, Cain has bad technique in the standup. If Cain wins the standup batte I will be EXTREMELY impressed as he still has a lot of development to go in that area.

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 05:47 PM

I think that fight will be very close.

**Boddhissatva** · 10-20-09, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by RobbReport

I think that fight will be very close.

No way this fight goes all three rounds.

**RobbReport** · 10-20-09, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Boddhissatva

No way this fight goes all three rounds.

you sure? I wouldn't rule it out.