UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev (March 13, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Marlon Moraes vs. Song Yadong
Alex Caceres vs. Sodiq Yusuff
Karl Roberson vs. Khalil Rountree
Drew Dober vs. Terrance McKinney
Alex Pereira vs. Bruno Silva

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
AJ Fletcher vs. Matthew Semelsberger
JJ Aldrich vs. Gillian Robertson
Javid Basharat vs. Trevin Jones
Damon Jackson vs. Kamuela Kirk
Miranda Maverick vs. Sabina Mazo
Cody Brundage vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
Guido Cannetti vs. Kris Moutinho
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Tafon Nchukwi

[povis]

Song by K.O/TKO general trend that losing 2-3 in a row by stoppage it's almost a verdict especially against mobile, young fighter with heavy hands like Yadong.

[magpie878]

I was ready to pile on against Santos the other day until I saw just how big of a dog he was. Staying away, but he really stinks since the injury. Has a great scowl, and it ends there.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups!!




125 lbs.: Sabina Mazo vs. Miranda Maverick

Sabina Mazo (9-3) capped off a three-fight win streak by choking out Justine Kish in Sept. 2020. She hasn’t tasted victory since, dropping a decision to Alexis Davis and suffering a club-and-sub loss to Mariya Agapova in sequence.
“Colombian Queen” is the taller woman by four inches and will have a 4.5-inch reach advantage.
Miranda Maverick (11-4) lived up to her name with impressive UFC victories over Liana Jojua and Gillian Robertson, but wound up on the wrong end of some horrific judging against Maycee Barber. There was nothing controversial about her next outing, however, dropping a wide decision to fast-rising Erin Blanchfield.
She replaces Mandy Bohm on short notice.
To say Mazo has underperformed in the Octagon would be an understatement. Even her victories were awash in red flags — she was fortunate to get the split decision over J.J. Aldrich and was arguably on her way to losing a decision to Kish before finishing her off late in the third. Though she’s just 24 and has time to live up to the considerable potential she once showed, the prognosis looks grim.
Maverick’s had her own issues, to be fair, but dropping a bogus decision to Barber and falling to a blue-chip prospect like Blanchfield aren’t particularly damning. The style match up is definitely in her favor, too. Indeed, Davis showed that Mazo is vulnerable to the sort of wrestling-heavy offense Maverick employs, and Maverick’s aggressive enough to find success on the feet despite the height and reach discrepancies. In the end, she overpowers Mazo on the mat for 15 grueling minutes.
Prediction: Maverick via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Santos Battles Ankalaev In Vegas!

185 lbs.: Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Cody Brundage

Former LFA double champ, Dalcha Lungiambula (11-3), followed his UFC debut knockout of Dequan Townsend with a loss to blue-chip prospect, Magomed Ankalaev. This prompted a drop to Middleweight, where he out-lasted Markus Perez before falling to Marc-Andre Barriault over three rounds.
He gives up four inches of height to Cody Brundage (6-2), but will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.
Brundage rebounded from his unsuccessful Contender Series bid by choking out Joseph Kropschot in his LFA debut. His efforts led to a short-notice UFC debut against Nick Maximov, who out-grinded the grinder to hand him his second loss in three fights.
His five finishes are split 3/2 between knockouts and submissions.
To Lungiambula’s credit, he showed flashes of improvement against Barriault, landing more significant strikes than in his three prior UFC appearances combined. He still showed a lot of his usual bad habits, though, namely his tendencies to put too much behind his punches and willingly back himself to the fence. This should give an athletic, fundamentally sound wrestler like Brundage plenty of opportunities to get in on his hips, especially since Lungiambula’s takedown defense isn’t as ironclad as his judo pedigree would suggest.
The big concern here is Lungiambula’s power, as Brundage can leave his chin exposed when rushing in. So long as Brundage stays patient and picks his opportunities, though, he’ll exploit Lungiambula’s terrible cage awareness to rack up takedowns and top control.
Prediction: Brundage via unanimous decision
Related
UFC Vegas 50 Poster For ‘Santos Vs Ankalaev’

135 lbs.: Kris Moutinho vs. Guido Cannetti

Kris Moutinho (9-5) rode a two-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, a late-notice clash with Sean O’Malley at UFC 264. The bout saw him absorb an ungodly 230 significant strikes before suffering a highly controversial stoppage in the last 30 seconds.
He stands one inch taller than “Ninja” at 5’7.”
Guido Cannetti (8-7) started his UFC career at 2-2 after an unsuccessful bid on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, defeating fellow TUF veterans Hugo Viana and Diego Rivas. He enters Saturday’s bout winless in his last three, most recently dropping a split decision to Mana Martinez.
He’s ended six professional fights inside the distance, three each by knockout and submission.
On the one hand, Moutinho has no striking defense to speak of and Cannetti both throws heat and can wrestle. On the other, Cannetti’s got one round of gas and is way too easy to bully to the fence. After way more agonizing than a match between two bottom-of-the-barrel Bantamweights merited, I think I’m going with Moutinho.
If there’s one thing Moutinho showed against O’Malley, it’s persistence. He’s got great cardio and never stops advancing, meaning Cannetti’s definitely going to wear down before he does. “Ninja” might swipe the first with top control and looping bombs, but Moutinho should snowball before long, even if his lack of stopping power may force a trip to the judges.
Prediction: Moutinho via third round technical knockout
Related
Tale Of The Tape

205 lbs.: Tafon Nchukwi vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Tafon Nchukwi (6-1) kicked off his Middleweight run by beating Jamie Pickett in his Octagon debut, but couldn’t do the same to Jun Yong Park in his second effort. His return to 205 pounds proved successful, dominating Mike Rodriguez for a comfortable victory.
“Da Don” will have two inches of height and nearly half a foot of reach on Murzakanov.
After a 2.5-year layoff brought about by a run-in with United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA), Azamat Murzakanaov (10-0) took his talents to Brave CF, where he defeated Mohammad Fakhreddine and Guto Inocente. This set up a Contender Series bid opposite Matheus Scheffel, whom Murzakanov demolished in three minutes to win a contract.
All eight of his professional finishes have come in the first round.
Nchukwi’s lack of speed won’t be as big of an issue at Light Heavyweight as it would have been if he’d stayed at 185 pounds, but it’s still going to be a big problem here. Murzakanov’s hands and feet are faster than the average 205er’s and downright blazing next to Nchukwi’s. On top of that, he’s as good as or better than Nchukwi in the wrestling thanks to his sambo background, meaning he can recreate Park’s efforts and take Nchukwi to the mat if the latter’s power becomes an issue.
Murzakanov just seems to have a technical edge in most areas, bolstered by the aforementioned speed advantage. In short, he runs circles around Nchukwi for a successful debut.
Prediction: Murzakanov via unanimous decision




170 lbs.: Matthew Semelsberger vs. A.J. Fletcher

Matthew Semelsberger (9-3) kicked off his Octagon run with a three-round decision over Carlton Minus and a 16-second knockout of Jason Witt, only to fall short against Khaos WIlliams. His next bout was a return to form, as he took just 15 seconds to annihilate Octagon newcomer Martin Sano.
“Semi the Jedi” will enjoy three inches of height and eight inches of reach on A.J. Fletcher (9-0).
“The Ghost” entered Contender Series on the heels of four consecutive first-round finishes, including two wins in the span of two months. He made it five and secured a contract in the process by annihilating Leonardo Damiani with a gorgeous flying knee.
He has knocked out and submitted four pro foes apiece.
I cannot for the life of me figure out why UFC matchmakers looked at Fletcher — a green but very gifted young fighter with real potential — and decided that he should debut against Semelsberger. It’s not that Fletcher has no chance here, but Semelsberger looks like a horrid match up for him. That’s because “Semi the Jedi” does an excellent job of punishing the sorts of naked kicks and unsafe entries Fletcher has yet to expunge from his game.
Fletcher’s key weapon here is his wrestling, and it’s worth noting that Semelsberger hasn’t really had his takedown defense tested in the Octagon. That said, Fletcher’s inability to hold down Damiani and Semelsberger’s solid cardio suggest that even if Fletcher does drag him down, he’s going to get clipped eventually. In the end, Semelsberger plunks him with a counter right for another quick finish.
Prediction: Semelsberger via first round knockout
Related
Up Next! Santos Battles Ankalaev In Vegas!

125 lbs.: J.J. Aldrich vs. Gillian Robertson

Though she fell to Juliana Lima in her 2016 Octagon debut, J.J. Aldrich (10-4) established herself as a contender with wins in six of her next eight bouts. Her current two-fight win streak features decisions over Cortney Casey and Vanessa Demopoulos.
She boasts a 4.5-inch reach advantage.
The 6-2 UFC start for Gillian Robertson (10-6) gave way to consecutive decision losses to Taila Santos and Miranda Maverick. Undaunted, she bounced back by choking out Priscila Cachoeira in Dec. 2021.
“The Savage” steps in for Ariane Lipski on less than three weeks’ notice.
With all due respect to the oft-underrated Aldrich, this match up is a lot less competitive than the original one. Not in the sense that Robertson is exponentially better than the fast-improving Lipski, to be fair, but in the sense that it’s a more polarized clash of styles. If Robertson can outwrestle her opponents, she wins the vast majority of the time, and my money says she can out-wrestle Aldrich.
As vastly superior as Aldrich is on the feet, I don’t trust her to keep it there once Robertson decides to change levels, and getting out from underneath “The Savage” is a mighty tall task. Barring any complications from the late notice, Robertson’s top game carries her to another rear-naked choke finish.
Prediction: Robertson via second round submission
Related
UFC Vegas 50 Poster For ‘Santos Vs Ankalaev’

135 lbs.: Trevin Jones vs. Javid Basharat

Trevin Jones (13-7) put together one of the more impressive Octagon starts in recent memory, knocking out Timur Valiev and Mario Bautista, though the former victory was overturned because of a failed drug test. “5 Star” couldn’t keep the momentum up against Saidyokub Kakhramonov, however, tapping to a guillotine choke in the final minute of the third round.
He stands two inches shorter than “The Snow Leopard,” but sports a slight reach advantage.
After running into **** issues in his first attempt, Javid Basharat (11-0) finally reached Contender Series in Oct. 2021. There, he systematically dismantled Oron Kahlon before polishing him off with a bonus-winning guillotine.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, six of them by submission.
This fight honestly boils down to Basharat’s composure. He’s incredibly elusive when he commits to a long-range fight, and Jones seems like he’ll have all sorts of issues getting close enough to actually utilize his decent grappling and killer right hand. If Basharat tries to take the lead, however, I could definitely see him running into one of Jones’ patented instant-comeback punches.
I’ll be an optimist and say “The Snow Leopard” keeps his wits about him. He fought a perfect fight against Kahlon despite the latter going way over the line with his comments, so he shouldn’t have too much trouble sticking to a gameplan here. In short, he punishes Jones’ legs and body for a wide decision.
Prediction: Basharat via unanimous decision
Related
Tale Of The Tape

145 lbs.: Damon Jackson vs. Kamuela Kirk

The return for Damon Jackson (19-4-1) to the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion after 4.5 years away saw him defy considerable odds to choke out Mirsad Bektic, claiming both his first UFC victory and a “Performance of the Night” bonus in the process. Though he subsequently suffered a knockout loss to Ilia Topuria, “The Leech” got back in the win column by beating Charles Rosa 10 months later.
He’s the taller man by one inch, but gives up four inches of reach.
Kamuela Kirk (12-4) put a pair of consecutive losses behind him to score two dominant finishes under the LFA banner. The subsequent short-notice UFC debut for “The Jawaiian” pitted him against Makwan Amirkhani, whom Kirk narrowly out-lasted for a unanimous decision win.
The win was his first trip to the judges in victory, as he’d submitted six and knocked out four others as a professional.
While there’s a solid argument to be made that Kirk deserved the loss against Amirkhani, I don’t see him having anywhere near as much difficulty here. The striking is decidedly in his favor, and Jackson’s top-notch top game is hamstrung by wrestling that, on paper, can’t break through Kirk’s takedown defense the way Amirkhani did.
There’s the issue of this being another short-notice fight for Kirk, of course, but he seems to have the edge just about everywhere. Better striking, better wrestling and more than enough submission chops to steer clear of Jackson’s chokes. Depending on how he decides to proceed, he’ll either box up Jackson on the feet or overpower him on the mat.
Prediction: Kirk via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Does Alex Cacerez have a chance in this fight? He has been improving and is a true vet now? On a five fight win streak. At those odds it's tempting. Hmmm?

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Caceres-41586

[Brandt Moat]

I'm staying on McKinney. McKinney has been putting all his opponents down or out. Dober doesn't seem to improve. His fight I.Q. is low. Terrence will use his length and K.O. gator arms Dober. Going with McKinney by finish. Bruno Silva should be able to take Pereira down and win by sub or ground and pound. I know he has zero subs. His game plan should be to get it to the ground. Pereira's lack of MMA experience will be exposed by a more then capable Silva. Silva was projected to fight his way to the top before positive drug test. Pereira has the wins against Style Bender. I feel that is what is pushing the odds so high in his favor. Bruno by win and possibly sprinkle some on a sub.

[Brandt Moat]

A chance if he gets a good head kick off. His win streak is "not" the who's who in the UFC. He is entertaining and has improved his game about every time out. Not touching it. If ya do GL!

Does Alex Cacerez have a chance in this fight? He has been improving and is a true vet now? On a five fight win streak. At those odds it's tempting. Hmmm?

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Caceres-41586

[hankcream]

Thanks Lock, I was getting concerned that you may have disappeared when I didn’t see this by Tuesday.
This looks like a great card with lots of violence
I like Caceres but I’m going large on Super Sodiq Yussuf. Also like the other 2 Africans- Tafon & Dalcha. Ankalaev ITD looks good @ -110 and I hate doing it but I might even bet the womens fights - Maverick & Robertson.

[frankieunits2685]

Weigh-ins are live.

[hankcream]

I'm staying on McKinney. McKinney has been putting all his opponents down or out. Dober doesn't seem to improve. His fight I.Q. is low. Terrence will use his length and K.O. gator arms Dober. Going with McKinney by finish. Bruno Silva should be able to take Pereira down and win by sub or ground and pound. I know he has zero subs. His game plan should be to get it to the ground. Pereira's lack of MMA experience will be exposed by a more then capable Silva. Silva was projected to fight his way to the top before positive drug test. Pereira has the wins against Style Bender. I feel that is what is pushing the odds so high in his favor. Bruno by win and possibly sprinkle some on a sub.

Great value on both of those guys, I'd like to play McKinney but I'm afraid that if he doesn't get Dober out in the early rounds he might gas out. Silva has a great ground & pound game so probably a smaller play inside the distance @ +215
That's an awesome avatar, do you know that smokin babe

[Brandt Moat]

No i don't know her. With McKinney just fighting and coming back on 10 days rest, it is a gamble. I like Bruno more. The whole weight cut and then back to cut and re-weigh. It gives me pause with Terrence. I have wagered on Drew many times. He has won me some money in his career. Doesn't look to be on the rise. The avatar is nice!

Great value on both of those guys, I'd like to play McKinney but I'm afraid that if he doesn't get Dober out in the early rounds he might gas out. Silva has a great ground & pound game so probably a smaller play inside the distance @ +215
That's an awesome avatar, do you know that smokin babe

[JC2008]

Does Alex Cacerez have a chance in this fight? He has been improving and is a true vet now? On a five fight win streak. At those odds it's tempting. Hmmm?

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Caceres-41586

This is MMA. The underdog almost always has a shot. Shit even Santos might have a shot since I haven't seen a single human on him except buddy from MMA Mania.

[JIBBBY]

This is MMA. The underdog almost always has a shot. Shit even Santos might have a shot since I haven't seen a single human on him except buddy from MMA Mania.

True, clip on the chin or a quick sub sink in while grappling can happen. With some fighters though you just know it's probably not gonna happen JC.

After further review I can't bet on Bruce Leroy, I'm out.. I can't bet on Santos either. Too old. Both are fighting younger studs.

MMA is a young mans sport.

[JIBBBY]

Well it's game time good luck everyone let's win some money damn it!!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

My bets

[kcchiefs]

Got Kirk on this one.

[kcchiefs]

That was a kicking. Going with Mckinney, Roundtree, Thiago, and them some itds and parlays on Song, Semelsberger, Basharat.

[JIBBBY]

Good fights so far.


These chick fights bore me though..

[Thor4140]

boy i was going to load up on this main event but wtf -700? I figured maybe 2 to 1 if that. You got a guy some think beat Jones getting this kind of money. a Wildman who does have a punchers chance. Looks like i will pass. Now i am rooting for the dog.

[Allure]

Yeah, Pereira aint beating Izzy if they even ever meet which I don't think will happen. He doesn't have the lungs to go 5 rounds and I don't see him doing well against good grapplers. Guys like Vettori will take him apart.

[Merlin21]

I don't know why but talked myself out of McKinney... Going with Dober and the chalk

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Dober chin taking a beating and ....

[Merlin21]

Uuuuhm

[Allure]

What just happened?

[Merlin21]

What just happened?

Dobers chin is made of granite is what happened.... That was a good knee from McKinney.. I kissed my money goodbye in the first minute but here we are

[kingdom]

What just happened?

not one punched landed lol. he punched him in the elbows. bad referee job. much more damage was done when dober was on the ground early. shocking announcers didn't mention the stoppage. watch the replay. not one landed

[Allure]

Dobers chin is made of granite is what happened.... That was a good knee from McKinney.. I kissed my money goodbye in the first minute but here we are

How did he survive that heat, wow. Great fight.

[Allure]

not one punched landed lol. he punched him in the elbows. bad referee job. much more damage was done when dober was on the ground early. shocking announcers didn't mention the stoppage. watch the replay. not one landed

Yeah I also thought that the ref was a tad bit early to stop it but then again McKinney didn't seem pissed about the stoppage either. But McKinney had Dober in a worse situation and the ref didn't stop it but was quick to stop it for Dober. It is what it is. Glad I didn't bet this one.

[Merlin21]

Oooooof! Definition of lights out

[jrgum3]

Song Yadong has some very real power. That was impressive by the youngster.

[JIBBBY]

Santos bitched out, he fought to survive. He should have blitz early on and often and then gassed out and then get knocked out worst case scenario. He would have atleast had a chance to win this fight. This Russians chin hasn't been tested yet and he got rocked early on.

Santos was chin protecting the entire fight. I understand though as he has a wife and kids. Baby on the way.

[Brandt Moat]

2 losing cards in a row for me. Hope I can turn it around when I land in Vegas tomorrow!