UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka (May 01, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN2, 10:00 pm ET
Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka
Giga Chikadze vs. Cub Swanson
Ion Cutelaba vs. Dustin Jacoby
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Sean Strickland
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann
Poliana Botelho vs. Luana Carolina

ESPN+, 7:00 pm ET
Randa Markos vs. Luana Pinheiro
Gabriel Benitez vs. Jonathan Pearce
TJ Brown vs. Kai Kamaka III
Sam Hughes vs. Loma Lookboonmee
K.B. Bhullar vs. Andreas Michailidis
Felipe Colares vs. Luke Sanders

[Al Masters]

I’m betting lots of money on Jiri..this guy is a monster and should destroy Reyes.

lots of time off he should definitely be ready for this fight..

Reyes confidence very low.

[hankcream]

Have to go Prochaska Itd, Reyes doesn’t seem like the type to be able to come back strong after a beat down. Plus I think Blachowicz f$clked up his nose pretty bad. Seeing some value in Jotko too but need to do some homework before pulling the trigger.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Crazy how fast Reyes becomes the dog, one fight ago he was the uncrowned champ

[Sanity Check]

Reyes inconsistency could indicate he seriously struggles with motivation.

[WolfTicketDealer]

I get why people enjoy watching Jiri fight but there's no way I could ever lay chalk on him. Loves to fight with his hands down and pretty clearly lost R1 to Oezdemir. I'm also not sold on his gas tank. A shot CB Dolloway was landing hard leg kicks before getting KOd.

Reyes has shown a solid chin outside of the Jan loss, and I think he wins this fight if Jiri doesn't catch him.

[Pinoy-T-X]

At first, I was liking Jiri here. But after watching some of his fights he comes out too aggressive with reckless abandonment of defense. Reyes had a bad fight versus Jan but prior to that he was cruising thru the division.
Jiri reminds me of the hype Johnny Walker went thru till he got exposed.

[Al Masters]

I get why people enjoy watching Jiri fight but there's no way I could ever lay chalk on him. Loves to fight with his hands down and pretty clearly lost R1 to Oezdemir. I'm also not sold on his gas tank. A shot CB Dolloway was landing hard leg kicks before getting KOd.

Reyes has shown a solid chin outside of the Jan loss, and I think he wins this fight if Jiri doesn't catch him.

Yes that hands low style is asking for trouble..pretty sure him and his coaches have talked about this.

I see where he’s been training like a mad dog, we will see what happens -130 a slight favourite I believe he will catch Reyes.

[frankieunits2685]

I think the value is on Reyes, and there is some slight overreaction to him losing 2 fights in a row. He lost to Jones, and you can argue that Reyes won that fight. I had a decent amount of money on Jones to close out a parlay, and even I was leaning toward Reyes winning. Then he lost to Jan, who is on an absolute tear at the moment. Other than that Jan fight, Reyes' chin has looked pretty good. I'll most likely be on Reyes ML with a Jiri RD 1 hedge.

[magpie878]

I'm curious to see what the odds are for not going the distance. DK doesn't have it yet.

[frankieunits2685]

I'm curious to see what the odds are for not going the distance. DK doesn't have it yet.

It's around -350.

[WolfTicketDealer]

I think the value is on Reyes, and there is some slight overreaction to him losing 2 fights in a row. He lost to Jones, and you can argue that Reyes won that fight. I had a decent amount of money on Jones to close out a parlay, and even I was leaning toward Reyes winning. Then he lost to Jan, who is on an absolute tear at the moment. Other than that Jan fight, Reyes' chin has looked pretty good. I'll most likely be on Reyes ML with a Jiri RD 1 hedge.

I personally would prefer the Under 1.5 as a hedge as there's a chance both bets cash if Reyes gets an early finish.

[Sanity Check]

I think the value is on Reyes, and there is some slight overreaction to him losing 2 fights in a row. He lost to Jones

Reyes couldn't find the motivation to have cardio in the championship rounds when he fought Jones.

If he can't find motivation to train right for the big fight with the belt on the line.

Its even harder to find motivation facing guys like Jiri who don't have a big name behind them.

[PaperTrail07]

Jiri and Benitez

[WolfTicketDealer]

Reyes couldn't find the motivation to have cardio in the championship rounds when he fought Jones.

If he can't find motivation to train right for the big fight with the belt on the line.

Its even harder to find motivation facing guys like Jiri who don't have a big name behind them.

Reyes really didn't gas that badly, he still threw 40+ sig strikes in Rounds 4 and 5. I think it's pretty silly to hold this against him. He lost championship rounds to the LHW GOAT who pretty much never loses in those rounds.

[Pinoy-T-X]

I rewatch Jiri’s last fight. I’m definitely betting Reyes this weekend.

[Sanity Check]

Reyes really didn't gas that badly, he still threw 40+ sig strikes in Rounds 4 and 5. I think it's pretty silly to hold this against him. He lost championship rounds to the LHW GOAT who pretty much never loses in those rounds.

Jon Jones response was.

"There is no excuse for Reyes to not have cardio in the championship rounds. Its one of the few things a fighter can control."

Reyes by contrast blamed everyone & everything except himself for not having cardio in rounds 4 and 5. SJW mentality.

I'm not saying Jiri will win.

What I am saying is, sometimes its better to find plays that don't involve hit or miss attempts at finding motivation to train properly.

[Thrilla]

I'm surprised to see Reyes as the dog here

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -




115 lbs.: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Sam Hughes

After edging out Aleksandra Albu in her UFC debut, Loma Lookboonmee (5-2) took a step up against Angela Hill that proved too much, too soon, resulting in her second career loss. Undaunted, she got back on track eight months later with a dominant performance against former Invicta champ Jinh Yu Frey.
She is the shorter of the two by four inches and gives up 2.5 inches of reach.
Sam Hughes (5-2) put together a perfect professional start (4-0) to set up an LFA title fight against Vanessa Demopoulos, who hit a comeback submission in the championship rounds to end “Sampage’s” unbeaten run. A buzzer-beater submission of Danielle Hindley put her back in the win column three months later, but she failed to overcome Tecia Torres in her late-notice Octagon debut.
She has tapped three professional foes and knocked out one other.
While I do want to be cheeky and just say that Hughes is set to go 0-2 against 5’1” striking dynamos, I think y’all deserve a bit more explanation than that. Hughes is a capable boxer in her own right, but she’s extremely one-note on the feet compared to Lookboonmee, relying almost entirely on jabs, crosses, and low kicks. Lookboonmee is adept enough to get inside of Hughes’ longer strikes and get to work in the clinch, where she ostensibly has Hughes badly outgunned.
That said, Hughes does figure to have a notable size advantage, and Lookboonmee will be much easier to get a hold of than Torres. If she can bully Lookboonmee inside and/or somehow keep her at the end of her reach, she’s got a shot. More likely, though, Lookboonmee tears her up at point-blank for a wide decision.
Prediction: Lookboonmee via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Reyes Vs Prochazka’ In Vegas!

145 lbs.: Felipe Colares vs. Luke Sanders

Though an Octagon debut loss to Geraldo de Freitas knocked Felipe Colares (9-2) from the ranks of the unbeaten, “Cabocao” made his way onto the UFC scoreboard with a split decision over Domingo Pilarte. Despite a heroic effort, he couldn’t keep the momentum going, dropping a decision to Montel Jackson in a slugfest.
This will be his first appearance in 15 months, as COVID-19 scratched a planned Nov. 2020 clash with Gustavo Lopez.
Luke Sanders (13-4) entered the Octagon with the RFA belt and a 10-0 record, which he promptly improved by choking out Maximo Blanco in his debut. He’s just 2-4 since, most recently tapping to a Nate Maness rear-naked choke in Nov. 2020.
He initially stepped in for T.J. Laramie against Damon Jackson, but got this match up when both Jackson and Colares’ original foe, Journey Newson, withdrew.
I really do think Sanders is better than his UFC record suggests; three of those four losses came via comeback stoppage in fights he was decisively winning. If he can just keep his head on straight for a full fight, he’s got the skills to run roughshod over Colares, who got eaten alive by another powerhouse southpaw in Jackson last time out.
Sanders may not have Jackson’s downright unfair physical gifts, but his aggression figures to pay similar dividends, and Colares seemingly lacks the punching power that Andre Soukhamthath and Nate Maness used to turn the tables. So long as he keeps Colares on the back foot, avoids getting his back taken, and doesn’t have another brain fart, he buries Colares in power punches for a second-round finish.
Prediction: Sanders via second-round technical knockout
Related
UFC Vegas 25 Poster For ‘Reyes Vs Prochazka’

185 lbs.: Andreas Michailidis vs. K.B. Bhullar

Andreas Michailidis (12-4) brought a 7-1 run into the Octagon, where he stepped up on short notice to face Modestas Bukauskas at Light Heavyweight. Though the opening minutes were competitive, Michailidis’ attempt at a late takedown resulted in a technical knockout loss because of elbows.
He has gone the distance just once as a professional, knocking out six.
When the “Contender Series” bout for K.B. Bhullar (8-1) against Bruno Oliveira fell through, he joined UFC proper to take on talented Englishman Tom Breese. “The Bengal” proved unable to capitalize on the opportunity, falling to a stiff jab and subsequent ground-and-pound in 102 seconds.
He stands four inches taller than Michailidis and boasts a three-inch reach advantage.
It’s safe to say that neither man particularly impressed in his Octagon debut, but I’d still tab Bhullar as the better Middleweight despite getting knocked out more quickly. Michailidis just strikes me as a fundamentally flawed fighter, held back by low-level boxing and a consistently poor gas tank. Flawed as Bhullar is, particularly in terms of his striking defense, he’s still got the size and cardio to outlast Michailidis.
While Michailidis could just knock Bhullar’s block off in the first few minutes, he’s orders of magnitude worse than Breese. Bhullar survives an aggressive start to polish the Greek off late.
Prediction: Bhullar via third-round technical knockout



115 lbs.: Randa Markos vs. Luana Pinheiro

Randa Markos (10-10-1) spent her first five years in the Octagon alternating losses and wins, with only a draw against Marina Rodriguez spoiling the pattern. Though she’s since managed to buck the trend, she did so in the wrong direction, and she enters the cage this Saturday having lost three straight.
“Quiet Storm” will enjoy a 1.5-inch reach advantage over the Brazilian.
Six consecutive first-round finishes carried Luana Pinheiro (8-1) to “Contender Series,” where she squared off against longtime veteran Stephanie Frausto. She kept the streak alive by smashing Frausto with first-round punches to secure a UFC contract.
Her seven stoppage wins include five by submission.
The thing about Markos is that she’s not a bad fighter — she’s a decent one who keeps having to fight very good ones. Yeah, she’s dropped three straight and is 2-5-1 in her last eight, but six of those opponents are currently in the Top 15 and one of the others was a blue-chip prospect in Kanako Murata.
In short, if Pinheiro isn’t the talent she appears to be, Markos absolutely has the skills to spoil her debut.
That’s a big “if,” though. Between her judo pedigree and newly discovered bomb of a right hand, Pinheiro really looks like one to watch. Markos may be durable enough to avoid the one-hitter quitter, but Pinheiro figures to find her neck before too long.
Prediction: Pinheiro via first round submission
Related
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145 lbs.: Gabriel Benitez vs. Jonathan Pearce

A 5-2 UFC start gave way to two consecutive losses for Gabriel Benitez (22-8), falling to rising prospects Sodiq Yusuff and Omar Morales. He returned to form in Dec. 2020 with a vicious knee knockout of Justin Jaynes, earning his second “Performance of the Night” bonus in the process.
“Moggly” stands four inches shorter than Jonathan Pearce (10-4) at 5’8.”
“JSP” put the hurt on Jacob Rosales to graduate on the Contender Series, but a blitz from Joe Lauzon ended his subsequent Octagon debut in just 93 seconds. He dropped to 145 for his sophomore effort, which saw him pound out heavily favored late replacement Kai Kamaka III.
That win marked his ninth professional finish and his eighth by form of knockout.
Pearce really surprised me against Kamaka — the Hawaiian is a genuine top-flight wrestler and Pearce ate him alive on the mat. That persistence figures to pay dividends here, as despite Benitez’s obvious improvements throughout his lengthy UFC tenure, his kick-heavy offense and tendency to get backed against the fence seemingly play right into Pearce’s hands.
“Moggly” does have a considerable edge on the feet and a clear target in Pearce’s vulnerable lead leg, but “JSP’s” durability is nothing to scoff at. In the end, expect him to steadily smother Benitez in takedown attempts and relentless ground-and-pound for an increasingly one-sided decision.
Prediction: Pearce via unanimous decision
Related
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145 lbs.: Kai Kamaka III vs. T.J. Brown

Kai Kamaka III (8-3) — who opened his professional career 2-2 — won five straight in King of The Cage (KOTC), Bellator and LFA before winning a “Fight of the Night” war with Tony Kelley in his Octagon debut. He wasn’t quite as successful his next time out, succumbing to Jonathan Pearce’s ground-and-pound late in the second.
He gives up two inches of height and 4.5 inches of reach to T.J. Brown (14-8).
“Downtown” extended his finishing streak to four with a third-round submission of Dylan Lockard on “Contender Series” to earn a spot in UFC. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, suffering a comeback submission loss to Jordan Griffin and getting his leg torn up by Danny Chavez en route to a unanimous decision defeat.
Thirteen of his professional wins, including all of them since 2016, have come inside the distance.
I’ve flip-flopped on this one a lot more than I thought I would. Both men have painfully glaring flaws that undercut their impressive technical acumen, namely Kamaka’s gas tank and Brown’s durability. After seeing their most recent efforts, however, Kamaka’s key weakness seems the more damning. Pearce had him exhausted by the middle of the second round and Brown can be every bit as relentless with his takedown attack.
While Kamaka does have more pop than his one career finish would suggest, Brown withstood a lot more punishment from Chavez than Kamaka can inflict, and Kamaka can’t rely on his own takedowns against a scrambler this good. An initially even fight gets ever more lopsided as Brown racks up takedowns and saps Kamaka’s cardio for a late finish.
Prediction: Brown via third round submission

[JIBBBY]

Main card -


Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba vs. Dustin Jacoby

Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree Jr For Jacoby? Maxim Grishin
Current Streak: Cutelaba has technically lost his last two under weird (but also violent) circumstances opposite Magomed Ankalaev, while Jacoby has won two straight
X-Factor: Which man manages his energy more efficiently?
How these two match up: There has yet to be a boring Cutelaba bout, and Jacoby is a highly skilled kickboxer. Sounds like fun!
Cutelaba appears to be at least mildly out of his mind. He’s always flexing and yelling, but credit to him, he brings that intensity into the cage! A skilled wrester with real power in his hands, Cutelaba very often tries to empty the tank by immediately overwhelming his opponents.
Jacoby is a more measured fighter, but the former Glory kickboxer still has knocked out 18 foes between the ring and cage. He’s a crafty and rangy striker, one who looks to break his foe down from the outside before delivering the killing blow.
Unless he’s getting blown out of the water, Cutelaba fights are hard to predict. The 27-year-old “Hulk” has a lot of talent, but he’s also very willing to throw away wins by brawling or gassing out. At the same time, Jacoby has shown that while he’s much improved for his second UFC run, there are still cracks in his overall MMA game.
He’s not immune to fatigue himself.
Ultimately, I trust Cutelaba’s wrestling and physicality to get him through some tough spots. He’s strong and tough enough to take shots, return fire, and find his way to the takedown. No matter how talented the kickboxer, a couple minutes of wrestling makes him much less dangerous.
Prediction: Cutelaba via knockout
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---

Middleweight: Sean Strickland vs. Krzysztof Jotko

Best Win for Strickland? Brendan Allen For Jotko? Thales Leites
Current Streak: Both athletes have won three in a row
X-Factor: Jotko’s recent hesitancy in firefights
How these two match up: Two experienced and talented Middleweights will throw down.
Strickland’s decision to move back to 185 lbs. is the right one. As a result of facing bigger men — sort of, Strickland is huge himself — his speed advantage has really shined, letting his boxing control the flow of fights.
Meanwhile, Jotko has rebounded well from a rough streak, largely returning to his wrestling to control his opposition. Last time out, however, Jotko proved that his kickboxing is still on point, sticking and moving wonderfully opposite Eryk Anders to cruise to another victory.
Jotko is a veteran, and he’s been in there with many of the division’s best. However, Strickland is riding a serious wave of momentum, gaining confidence, and his style appears all wrong for Jotko. Kamaru Usman aside, Strickland has struggled more with fellow strikers than wrestlers.
It seems unlikely that Jotko is able to get “Tarzan” down, at least not consistently nor for very long. On the feet, Strickland’s swift jab will likely be the difference-maker, and it doesn’t hurt that he seemingly is the bigger puncher too.
Prediction: Strickland via decision
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Bantamweight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann

Best Win for Davalishvili? John Dodson For Stamann? Bryan Caraway
Current Streak: Dvalishvili has won five straight, whereas Stamann came up short last time out
X-Factor: Dvalishvili takes a lot of chances
How these two match up: Both men like to use range kickboxing to set up takedowns, but they go about that strategy in very different ways.
Dvalishvili is a whirlwind. He has a seemingly endless gas tank, and he fights like it’s his mission to find the bottom of it. The Georgian athlete throws jump kicks and spinning punches like they’re going out of style, confounding his opponent with constant volume and general weirdness. Then, he looks to rack up takedowns, rarely bothering to really hold his opponents down.
He’d rather just take them down again!
Stamann is much more calculated and slick. He manages his distance very well, using a sharp side kick and smart angles to set up both his counter punches and takedowns. He’s one of the division’s best wrestlers, so this bout really could produce some amazing scrambles.
Early on, I really expect Stamann to look sharper. He’s going to feint, make Dvalishvili miss, and land punches on. In all likelihood, he’ll be able to defend takedowns or scramble back up immediately.
Unfortunately, Stamann has yet to finish an opponent inside the Octagon, and Dvalishvili is seemingly made of iron anyway. “The Machine” is going to be a tough man to decision; he throws too much and wrestles too often. Most likely, Stamann wins early portions of the fight, but Dvalishvili’s nature of constantly doing something eventually sways the judges.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision
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---

Women’s Flyweight: Poliana Botelho vs. Luana Carolina

Best Win for Poliana? Lauren Mueller For Carolina? Priscila Cachoeira
Current Streak: Both women lost their last bout
X-Factor: Will either fighter look to wrestle?
How these two match up: We should have a good old fashion kickboxing match on our hands (unless someone decides to flip the script!).
Botelho started her UFC career strong, scoring a body kick stoppage to build some hype and earn a step up in competition. Since then, unfortunately, Botelho has struggled to implement her Muay Thai skills against opponents determined to take her down. Similarly, Carolina will be searching for the third knockout win of her career, and she has demonstrated solid kickboxing so far.
She was doing well in her last bout, out-striking Ariane Lipski. Then, she tried to do a leg lock, and her opponent countered with a kneebar that sat Carolina on the bench for the better part of a year.
This match up certainly reads like a kickboxing battle, but with so many legs flying through the air, it still feels like a takedown is going to happen. Either way, Botelho’s physicality is a huge advantage. She hits harder, and if the two do engage in some wrestling, she’s more likely to end up on top.
In short, Carolina still has a lot to prove inside the Octagon before I can confidently pick her over more established UFC veterans.
Prediction: Botelho via decision

[hankcream]

Lot of value in Merab to get a finish vs Stamann. Hard to believe Stamann will be able to stay with Merab's pace. Stamann and Casey Kenney seem like similar fighters and Kenney was totally gassed in the 3rd vs Merab. With Merab training with Sterling, I would think he should have picked some decent subs and he's always throwing crazy spinning shit. At +400 inside the distance & +1400 Merab in rd 3, certainly worth a shot.

[209 Life]

I'm surprised to see Reyes as the dog here

I'm betting Reyes nothing else pops out to me this card.

[Sanity Check]

...

[magpie878]

Geez... I don't know much about Jiri, and hadn't seen that match with Oezdemir. Outside of the KO, that was not very impressive.

[magpie878]

Some DraftKings lines...

Total rounds: over 1.5 -152 under +115 yet going distance yes +250 and no -360

Reyes to win ITD +180 (+200 by KO/TKO/DQ and +1400 sub) and Prochazka +105 (+120 KO/TKO/DQ and +1400 sub)

Fight to end in first 60 seconds: yes +900 only

ML currently Reyes +107 and Jiri -132

[JIBBBY]

Reyes wins by KO. Jiri carries his hands to low.

[Demonata]

Liking reyes here. Definitely the smarter fighter.

[PaperTrail07]

You will get SO CLOSE and not cash----been there so many times with him....when he goes position over submission, you have no chance....

Lot of value in Merab to get a finish vs Stamann. Hard to believe Stamann will be able to stay with Merab's pace. Stamann and Casey Kenney seem like similar fighters and Kenney was totally gassed in the 3rd vs Merab. With Merab training with Sterling, I would think he should have picked some decent subs and he's always throwing crazy spinning shit. At +400 inside the distance & +1400 Merab in rd 3, certainly worth a shot.

[Pinoy-T-X]

https://twitter.com/SuperVeloce_DFS/status/1388199508790718466?s=20

[JIBBBY]

https://twitter.com/SuperVeloce_DFS/...790718466?s=20

Bad blood there, something was said.....

[frankieunits2685]

Benitez/Pearce off.

[Thrilla]

[Unwritten Law]

I will gladly take Jiri Prochazka at this steal of -120. I hope he becomes the underdog before the bell rings. Once he KO's Reyes, the UFC might start taking notice and you might not find this price again. When Jiri hits his opponents, they feel the power and lay stiff. Reyes will experience similar fashion and his night will end quickly.

[hankcream]

Don't like all the chalk but hoping for another good night:
4 units Botelho -250
3.5 units Cutelaba -138(should have waited)
2.5 units Merab -250
.75 units Merab itd +400
.88 units Jotko +225
1 unit Swanson +150
4 units Prochaska itd +ev

GL men

[frankieunits2685]

gl hank!