Matt Frevola announces he’s out of this weekend’s card because his cornerman tested positive twice for COVID. Frevola tested negative twice. First UFC fighter to be removed due to a cornerman testing positive. As a result, Frank Camacho will now face newly-signed Justin Jaynes.
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it looks like newly signed Justin Jaynes will fight Camacho and take Frevolas spot.Comment -
Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -
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185 lbs.: Marc-Andre Barriault (11-4) vs. Oskar Piechota (11-3-1)
Canada’s “Power Bar” secured the TKO Middleweight title with a second-round knockout of Brendan Kornberger, then stopped Adam Hunter in his first defense before joining the UFC. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon, dropping three consecutive decisions. He gives up three inches of reach to Poland’s “Imadlo.”
Piechota got off to a red-hot UFC start, dominating Jonathan Williams in his debut and laying out Tim Williams his next time out. Soon after, comeback submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert kicked off a three-fight losing streak, the most recent of which saw him knocked cold by Punahele Soriano in December. He’s knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.
If both men execute at their best, Piechota has the skills to take a comfortable victory. Barriault’s had all kinds of issues staying on his feet during his Octagon tenure, surrendering nearly half a dozen takedowns last time out to a man in Jun Yong Park who’s primarily a boxer. Despite submission losses to Meerschaert and Rodolfo Vieira, the former of whom Piechota gassed against and the latter of whom is one of the greatest grapplers in history, “Imadlo’s” jiu-jitsu is elite enough to own this fight if it hits the ground.
That said, Barriault might have an easier time bouncing back from competitive decision losses than Piechota will from three straight stoppages. Still, the Pole has enough of a technical edge in Barriault’s weakest area and enough standup chops to hold his own in the Canadian’s wheelhouse. Piechota gets back on the scoreboard with an early takedown and submission.
Prediction: Piechota by first-round submission
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155 lbs.: Frank Camacho (22-8) vs. Matt Frevola (8-1-1)
“The Crank” staked his claim as one of the sport’s most entertaining fighters by starting his UFC career with three consecutive Fights of the Night. A brutal knockout loss to Geoff Neal snapped that streak, and though he got back on track by knocking out Nick Hein, a subsequent tapout against Beneil Dariush dropped him to 2-4 in the Octagon. He’s scored 17 pro wins by (T)KO and another two by submission.
“The Steamrolla” rumbled past Jose Flores on the Contender Series to earn a UFC contact, only to start his Octagon run 0-1-1. He went on to right the ship with consecutive upsets of prospects Jalen Turner and Luis Peña. He gives up an inch of height and two inches of reach to Camacho.
For his sake, I’m glad that Frevola is leaning on his wrestling lately; I’m sure his loss to Polo Reyes served as a wake-up call. That shift in priorities should serve him well here. As staggering as Camacho’s striking output can be, his love of planting his feet and swinging for the fences can leave him open to takedowns, and the wildness of his haymakers hasn’t really translated to stopping power.
Frevola can theoretically keep up with Camacho on the feet, and what advantages the latter has in that area are offset by Frevola’s ostensible ability to take him down as needed. So long as “Steamrolla” doesn’t get caught up in a brawl, which he’s admittedly been better about lately, he defuses Camacho’s madcap offense to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Frevola by unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi (24-16) vs. Lauren Murphy (12-4)
“The Happy Warrior” earned her biggest win since 2010 last year by outgrappling Antonina Shevchenko in Russia, claiming her second UFC victory in the process. Though she fell to fellow Invicta veteran Jennifer Maia soon after, Modafferi scored another huge upset in January when Maycee Barber injured her knee in the second round. She gives up two inches of height to “Lucky.”
Nearly five years after her initial UFC debut, Murphy finally got her first Octagon finish by knocking out Mara Romero Borella last August. She kept the upset momentum going in January by taking a controversial split decision over Andrea Lee. She’s scored eight professional wins by form of knockout.
While her striking remains unpolished, Modafferi’s top game is legitimately dangerous, and I’d favor her over practically anyone at 125 that she could feasibly outwrestle. Unfortunately, I’m not sure Murphy is among their number. “Lucky” appears to be the physically stronger of the two on top of being similarly versed in takedown offense and defense, and her standup packs a bit more oomph.
This is the sort of matchup that could easily devolve into 15 minutes of them jockeying for position against the fence, and Murphy has the edge there, too. A lack of significant strikes could lead to some wacky scorecards, but Murphy will earn the win. She should just hope that karma doesn’t have a bone to pick over the Lee decision.
Prediction: Murphy by split decision
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155 lbs.: Austin Hubbard (11-4) vs Max Rohskopf (5-0)
“Thud” Hubbard got a rough introduction to the Octagon in the form of ADCC champ Davi Ramos, who handed the former LFA champ his first defeat since 2017. A decision over Kyle Prepolec earned him a spot in the UFC win column, though he couldn’t overcome the wrestling prowess of Olympic medalist Mark O. Madsen in March. He’ll give up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Rohskopf.
A standout wrestler at NC State, Rohskopf transitioned to jiu-jitsu and amateur MMA before making his pro debut in 2018. The Xtreme Couture product has ended all of his pro fights by submission, the last four in the first round. He steps in for Joe Solecki on six days’ notice.
Rohskopf tends to win so quickly that it’s hard to get a precise bead on his capabilities, but there’s definitely a lot to like. He’s got nasty power in his right hand, a nasty front choke attack, and he’s remarkable adept at taking the back from odd positions. That looks like a recipe for success against Hubbard, who had all sorts of problems with the grappling attacks of Ramos and Madsen.
What Hubbard does have going for him is experience against quality opposition and a proven ability to go five hard rounds; if the early finish isn’t there for Rohskopf, he’s in for the toughest slog of his MMA career. Also, “Thud” was preparing for another ground specialist in Solecki, so his preparation shouldn’t be too different. It’s hard to argue against Rohskopf’s pedigree and size advantages, though. He cruises his way to victory through persistent top control and submission attempts.
Prediction: Rohskopf by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Clay Guida (35-19) vs. Bobby Green (24-10-1)
Consecutive stoppage losses to Thiago Tavares and Brian Ortega sent Guide from Featherweight back to his old stomping grounds of 155, where he promptly dominated Erik Koch and Jose Luazon in consecutive appearances. He’s since gone 1-2, submission losses to Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller sandwiching a decision over what’s left of BJ Penn. His 20 professional finishes include 13 by submission.
“King” Green ended his Strikeforce run on a 4-fight winning streak, then extended it to eight in the Octagon. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday 1-5-1 in his last seven. He stands three inches taller than Guida at 5’10”.
Not all slumps are created equal. Ugly as Green’s current run looks, the majority of the media had him beating both Drakkar Klose and Francisco Trinaldo in his most recent fights. There are no such moral victories for Guida, who’s been decisively stopped in his last six losses. Green just looks like he has a lot less wear, a lot more left in the tank than the weathered “Carpenter.”
The style matchup is in Green’s favor as well, as he’s the superior boxer and has historically proven difficult to control on the mat. There is, of course, the concern that the pathologically frantic Guida could outwork or appear to outwork the often lethargic Green, but “King” should eke this one out, especially since he’s upped his volume in some recent efforts.
Prediction: Green by split decision
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115 lbs.: Tecia Torres (10-5) vs. Brianna Van Buren (9-2)
Though her Ultimate Fighter run proved underwhelming, Torres proved that her pre-show hype was legit by winning six of her first seven Octagon bouts. Unfortunately for “The Tiny Tornado,” she currently finds herself winless since 2017, dropping four straight. She’s taller than Van Buren by an inch but gives up an inch of reach.
“The Bull” put a 3-2 professional start behind her to win five straight, including three in one night to claim victory in Invicta’s Phoenix Rising tournament. Her success led to a short-notice UFC debut in July, which saw her comfortably outclass former Invicta champ Livia Renata Souza. She’s submitted three foes and knocked out two others, all but one in the first round.
Torres’ may be among the least damning losing streaks in the sport, having come against three former/future champions and one of the division’s best prospects in Marina Rodriguez. She’s still a quality fighter at 30 years old and by far the best striker Van Buren has yet faced; even if Torres has proven unable to topple the cream of the crop, I’m not prepared to write her off just yet.
Van Buren does still have the momentum, though, and Torres has struggled with the combination of aggressive striking and constant takedowns that “The Bull” offers. This is far more of a pick-‘em fight than the odds would suggest and a Torres upset certainly isn’t out of the equation, but Van Buren’s persistent advance should net her a narrow decision.
Prediction: Van Buren by unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Cortney Casey (9-7) vs. Gillian Robertson (7-4)
Casey’s 0-2 Octagon start gave way to a strong 3-1 run, only for her to run into a 1-3 skid that featured multiple controversial decisions. “Cast Iron” kept the judges out of the equation last time, though, catching Mara Romero Borella in a first-round armbar to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. She steps in for Taila Santos on short notice for her second fight in just over a month.
Robertson’s grappling skills carried her to four stoppage wins in her first five UFC appearances, including an upset rear naked choke of rising prospect Molly McCann. Young gun Maycee Barber proved more than “The Savage” could handle, however, battering her into submission partway through the first round. She has not won by decision since her second pro fight, submitting five and knocking out one.
I sincerely hope the walloping Robertson got from Barber doesn’t make her lose confidence in her abilities; “The Savage” is one of the premier wrestlers and submission artists in the division, and she has the tools to win this comfortably. Though Casey will have significant height and reach advantages, takedown defense has always been one of her bugbears, and her skills off of her back aren’t sufficient to keep her afloat against someone with this sort of top control.
So long as Robertson leans on her wrestling the way she has in her successful efforts, she should ground Casey early and often. From there, it’s just a question of whether she wants to hand Casey her first submission loss since 2013 or her first TKO loss period via ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Robertson by second-round TKO
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2020: 39-30-1
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Women’s Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau
Best Win for Pennington? Miesha Tate For Reneau? Sara McMann
Current Streak: Pennington has lost her last bout, while Reneau is 0-2 in her most recent pair of trips to the Octagon
X-Factor: the sheer inconsistency of both women
How these two match up: This is likely to be a scrap.
Pennington earned her title shot, utilizing boxing, toughness, and conditioning to outwork many of her peers. Unfortunately, she ran into Amanda Nunes, and the fight went about as well as one would expect. Since then, Pennington has struggled with consistency, losing two of her next three and missing weight.
Reneau is a formidable boxer with dangerous jiu-jitsu. However, she’s struggled to find consistent success inside the Octagon for a pair of reasons: she’s willing to fight from her back, and she’s willing to throw fewer punches than her opponent.
Neither woman is trustworthy right now. Pennington, at times, appears to be physically shot, unable to push the pace that her style demands. Meanwhile, Reneau has a proven history of making bad decisions that cost her victories, and Pennington remains difficult to finish.
All the signs point to a frustrating split-decision in which neither woman is really able to pull away. Ultimately, I’ll side with Pennington, largely because she’s a decade younger and does have her single recent victory over a relevant name in Irene Aldana.
Prediction: Pennington via decision
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Welterweight: Lyman Good vs. Belal Muhammed
Best Win for Good? Chance Rencountree For Muhammed? Randy Brown
Current Streak: Good rebounded with a win last time out, while Muhammed has won two straight
X-Factor: Muhammed’s pace
How these two match up: Ah, here’s the excitement that was promised.
Former Bellator champion Lyman Good does not play around inside the cage. A sharp boxer with clubbing power and great physicality, Good is a definite veteran of the sport who has really seen it all. On the other hand, Muhammed is quietly putting together quite a record at 170 lbs., having won six of his last seven. Muhammed is all about grit and conditioning, a well-rounded fighter who tends to really take over in the second half of fights.
This bout really comes down to one question for me: can Muhammed take Good down? If Muhammed can land takedowns early, the fight is a wrap. Even if he can start getting his wrestling going in the second round, “Remember The Name” is in great position to continue his winning ways.
If not though? If Good is too strong to be contained? Too experienced to be dragged down? Well, one has to lean towards the man with a brutal jab and 11 knockout wins on his record.
Muhammed has the chin to survive Good’s offense, but at a certain point, eating shots in the hopes that your opponent fatigues and starts giving up openings is an iffy proposition. Good looked exceptionally controlled yet still very violent while denying Rencountre’s wrestling with relative ease, and though Muhammed is much better at mixing it all up, a repeat performance seems possible.
Prediction: Good via decision
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Predictions! UFC On ESPN 11 Undercard Preview - Pt. 2
Catchweight (160 lbs): Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Best Win for Miller? Joe Lauzon For Roberts? Alexander Yakovlev
Current Streak: Miller came up short in a “Fight of the Night” winner last time out, while Roberts has won two straight
X-Factor: Miller’s durability
How these two match up: Lightweight (basically) action!
Miller has faced some rough streaks that seemed to indicate an end to his career over the last five years or so, but the New Jersey-native has rebounded! That’s not to say he’s a contender, but Miller remains a crafty submission ace with sneaky power in his hands. On the other end of the equation, Roberts is a “Contender Series” pickup with a nice mix of skills. Roberts is primarily a wrestler-grappler probably best known for his guillotine choke, but his hands have never looked weak either.
In this case, I’ll side with the underdog in Miller. There is definitely a chance that Roberts is able to win largely via youth, where a takedown or big connection shifts the momentum to his favor in an otherwise close fight. However, Roberts really struggled against Vinc Pichel, the last veteran he could not overwhelm on the mat.
Miller has proven in recent wins over men like Alex White and Jason Gonzalez that he’s no doormat for any up-and-comer. Miller is still a damn fine opportunist when it comes to snatching the back, and it seems likely to me that Roberts cannot help himself but to initiate grappling exchanges.
Even if he’s not winning them.
Prediction: Miller via submissionComment -
Time for the weigh-insComment -
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Hard to fade Blaydes here after fully capping the fight match up.. Dude is 29 years old, only lost one fight in his last 8 fights.. Has never lost by decision either.. I don't see a pathway to victory for Volkov here after looking it all over unless Volkov lands a lucky haymaker, he's not known for that though....
Always bet on black theory in play here for sure.. Unfortunately the betting odds reflect this though
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Glad to see you've joined me on Team Blaydes. The dude is really really good. Stylistic nightmare for Volkov too.Hard to fade Blaydes here after fully capping the fight match up.. Dude is 29 years old, only lost one fight in his last 8 fights.. Has never lost by decision either.. I don't see a pathway to victory for Volkov here after looking it all over unless Volkov lands a lucky haymaker, he's not known for that though....
Always bet on black theory in play here for sure.. Unfortunately the betting odds reflect this though...
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Curtis-Blaydes-172939Comment -
Belal looking ripped. Alhamdulillah
Praise be to AllahComment -
Will 6 Fights go the Distance ?? -175Comment -
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Not sure i see many dogs barking tonight...Comment -
I can't wait to watch Vollkov win tonight!Comment -
It's fight day!Comment -
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I was looking at the card and thinking, Always bet on Black? Blaydes, Robertes, Green ???Comment -
Prelims should be starting at 5pm eastern.Comment -
I think I did a really dumb bet. I like Oskar pichota a lot and think he wins as long as he doesn't get knocked out but people keep betting the other guy. I think pie submits him though.Comment -
Fighting in a small cage? How many fights will not go the distance? under 7?Comment -
Blaydes, Good, Miller will not go the distance?Comment -
Wrastlers to mop this card up!
It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!!
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UFC on ESPN+ 31: Blaydes vs. Volkov Picks:
Max Rohskopf Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Lauren Murphy Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Frank Camacho Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Gillian Robertson Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Marc-Andre Barriault Round 2 KO (Punch)
Brianna Van Buren Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Bobby Green Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Roosevelt Roberts Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Belal Muhammad Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Raquel Pennington Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Shane Burgos Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Curtis Blaydes Round 2 TKO (Elbows)Comment -
UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs. Volkov
ESPN Prelims:
Fight #1: Rohskopf (DEBUT) vs. Hubbard
Rohskopf Decision (+266) 0.5u
Fight #2: Murphy vs. Modafferi
Parlays
Fight #3: Camacho vs. Jaynes (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #4: Robertson vs. Casey
Robertson (-124) 2.48u to win 2u
Roberson+Casey Won’t Go Distance (+130) 0.8u
Robertson ITD (+260) 0.25u
Fight #5: Piechota vs. Barriault
Piechota+Barriault Under 2.5 (-110) 0.83u to win 0.75u
Fight #6: Van Buren vs. Torres
Van Buren Decision (-113) 1.41u to win 1.25u
Van Buren Submission (+1205) 0.25u
Fight #7: Green vs. Guida
Parlay
Main Card:
Fight #8: R. Roberts vs. Miller
R. Roberts -3.5 (-135) 0.68u to win 0.5u
R. Roberts Decision (+220) 0.5u
Fight #9: Muhammad vs. Good
Muhammad Round 3 (+2000) 0.1u
Fight #10: Pennington vs. Reneau
No Bet
Fight #11: Burgos vs. Emmett
Burgos+Emmett Won’t Go Distance (-144) 3.6u to win 2.5u
Burgos (-135) 1.01u to win 0.75u
Hedge:
Emmett KO/TKO (+305) 0.25u
Fight #12: Blaydes vs. Volkov
Blaydes (-205) 1.54u to win 0.75u
Blaydes KO/TKO (-131) 1.31u to win 1u
Blaydes Round 2 (+375) 0.5u
Blaydes Round 3 (+750) 0.25u
Hedge:
Volkov KO/TKO (+750) 0.25u
Prop Parlays:
Van Buren+Torres GD/R. Roberts (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Van Buren+Torres O2.5/Blaydes ITD (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Van Buren+Torres O2.5/Muhammad+Good GD (+108) 0.75u
Burgos Decision/Blaydes UD (+2105) 0.2u
Rohskopf/Murphy/Van Buren Decision/B. Green+Guida U2.5/Burgos+Emmett WGD/Blaydes ITD (+2969) 0.2uComment
