Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje 👊
Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's rare to expect so much violence in a lightweight matchup, but the combination of offensive weapons and lack of defense between this weekend's main event fighters nearly assures a crowd-pleaser.
Here's a breakdown of Saturday's showdown between Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and Justin Gaethje at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. (Prelims scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET).
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Sept. 11.
Lightweight matchup: No. 5 Justin Gaethje (-190) vs. No. 4 Donald Cerrone (+165)
Tale Of The Tape
It's somewhat rare to see very successful strikers also exhibit poor defense, but here we have two of them. Both men offer dangerous striking arsenals while standing, yet both also absorb more than the average share of damage in doing so. Their preference for a shootout is a big reason why these two fighters have racked up bonuses at a mind-boggling pace. In fact, in their collective preceding nine fights, Cerrone and Gaethje have amassed 11 performance bonuses between them.
We're left with a question more of durability than any doubts in finishing ability. And durability is hard to predict, especially with Cerrone switching between weight classes. His performance metrics include a variety of tough, highly-ranked opponents at welterweight as recently as last year.
Though Cerrone has the better submission game, Gaethje has the wrestling base to force a striking duel. And there we will have Cerrone's more diverse striking attack against Gaethje's more precise head-hunting. All the while, both sprinkle in more than the average rate of vicious leg kicks just to ensure they'll both be limping the next day.
It's a fight that probably will see extreme punishment delivered to, and absorbed by, both fighters. But the numbers lean toward Gaethje to score a fight-ending sequence first. If he can't, Cerrone could take over the fight in later rounds with his high-altitude stamina.
E+ recommends: Moneyline lean on Gaethje. Fight does not go the distance.
Other fight card value
Five years ago, there was massive buzz around Uriah Hall. Coming off one of the greatest highlight-reel knockouts in the UFC vault, he had the size and violent striking that made him look like a world-beater. No one would have imagined him being the second biggest underdog on a fight card, and yet that's the case this weekend. Hall is still dangerous at long range, but he has often struggled with aggressive grapplers. Antonio Carlos Junior certainly fits the mold of someone who could stifle Hall's striking game and threaten submissions on the ground.
E+ recommends: Moneyline play on Carlos Junior.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's rare to expect so much violence in a lightweight matchup, but the combination of offensive weapons and lack of defense between this weekend's main event fighters nearly assures a crowd-pleaser.
Here's a breakdown of Saturday's showdown between Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and Justin Gaethje at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. (Prelims scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET).
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Sept. 11.
Lightweight matchup: No. 5 Justin Gaethje (-190) vs. No. 4 Donald Cerrone (+165)
Tale Of The Tape
| Last Fight Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Current Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 73.0 | 71.0 |
| Reach | 72.0 | 74.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed Minutes | 383 | 43 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) | 23:7 | 2:1 |
| Distance Knockdown Rate | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| Head Jab Accuracy | 33% | 36% |
| Head Power Accuracy | 29% | 38% |
| Total Standup Strike Ratio | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total Head Strike Defense | 66% | 63% |
| Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") | 98% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 35% | 0% |
| Advances per Takedown/Top Control | 1.1 | NA |
| Opponent Takedown Attempts | 111 | 10 |
| Takedown Defense | 72% | 80% |
| Share of Total Ground Time in Control | 56% | 45% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.56 | 0.00 |
It's somewhat rare to see very successful strikers also exhibit poor defense, but here we have two of them. Both men offer dangerous striking arsenals while standing, yet both also absorb more than the average share of damage in doing so. Their preference for a shootout is a big reason why these two fighters have racked up bonuses at a mind-boggling pace. In fact, in their collective preceding nine fights, Cerrone and Gaethje have amassed 11 performance bonuses between them.
We're left with a question more of durability than any doubts in finishing ability. And durability is hard to predict, especially with Cerrone switching between weight classes. His performance metrics include a variety of tough, highly-ranked opponents at welterweight as recently as last year.
Though Cerrone has the better submission game, Gaethje has the wrestling base to force a striking duel. And there we will have Cerrone's more diverse striking attack against Gaethje's more precise head-hunting. All the while, both sprinkle in more than the average rate of vicious leg kicks just to ensure they'll both be limping the next day.
It's a fight that probably will see extreme punishment delivered to, and absorbed by, both fighters. But the numbers lean toward Gaethje to score a fight-ending sequence first. If he can't, Cerrone could take over the fight in later rounds with his high-altitude stamina.
E+ recommends: Moneyline lean on Gaethje. Fight does not go the distance.
Other fight card value
Five years ago, there was massive buzz around Uriah Hall. Coming off one of the greatest highlight-reel knockouts in the UFC vault, he had the size and violent striking that made him look like a world-beater. No one would have imagined him being the second biggest underdog on a fight card, and yet that's the case this weekend. Hall is still dangerous at long range, but he has often struggled with aggressive grapplers. Antonio Carlos Junior certainly fits the mold of someone who could stifle Hall's striking game and threaten submissions on the ground.
E+ recommends: Moneyline play on Carlos Junior.