UFC on ESPN+ 15: Andrade vs. Zhang (August 31, 2019)

[Enfuego]

I think books are a shell game.

A casual gambler will bet $100 on a -200 play and win.

Then they'll see another -200 line and think its exactly the same as the line they played and won. But. Its. Not. They'll look at odds like -200 and think they have around 66.6% probability of winning. But. They. Don't. That could be one of the key issues many gamblers have is trusting books to give them odds that are fair.

IMO odds can be as deceptive as old soothsayers who tried to predict the future by looking at the entrails of chickens. Its a rorschach test. System is gamed and rigged to a degree but not necessarily where people expect.

Well, according to the established line pre-game, a -200 does have a 66.70% chance of winning. That doesn't mean it will win but according to the line, yes it does. We all know though the favs don't always win.

[Sanity Check]

Well, according to the established line pre-game, a -200 does have a 66.70% chance of winning. That doesn't mean it will win but according to the line, yes it does. We all know though the favs don't always win.

Scenario:

Let's say you owned pinnacle. Chances are you've built up a network of information collecting in mixed martial arts over the years to help oddsmakers set lines.

Now imagine if Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 3 was going down. (This is just a fake scenario I'm making up)

Your sources close to Conor say he's spent the past 12 months snorting coke. This damaged his heart, Conor has no cardio. It also damaged his timing and hand eye coordination. In addition to this, Conor tore his ACL and broke his left hand in training but decided to not pull out of the fight.

Your sources close to Nate Diaz say Floyd Mayweather Jr. and olympic wrestlers have been training him. Your sources say Nate Diaz knocked Paulie Malignaggi out cold in sparring and has been out-wrestling guys who won medals in the olympics for wrestling.

Looking at this data, Nate Diaz should be the favorite.

But your goal isn't to release lines that are fair or accurate. Your goal is to sucker people into betting on the loser so you can profit from their poor choices.

Your lines come out and Conor is a -200 favorite, like most would expect him to be. Gamblers look at the line and expect Conor to have near to 70% chance of winning the fight but in reality you expected Conor to lose and only made him the favorite to con casual gamblers who have limited access to information on betting on the loser.

[bjpenn85]

Scenario:

Let's say you owned pinnacle. Chances are you've built up a network of information collecting in mixed martial arts over the years to help oddsmakers set lines.

Now imagine if Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 3 was going down. (This is just a fake scenario I'm making up)

Your sources close to Conor say he's spent the past 12 months snorting coke. This damaged his heart, Conor has no cardio. It also damaged his timing and hand eye coordination. In addition to this, Conor tore his ACL and broke his left hand in training but decided to not pull out of the fight.

Your sources close to Nate Diaz say Floyd Mayweather Jr. and olympic wrestlers have been training him. Your sources say Nate Diaz knocked Paulie Malignaggi out cold in sparring and has been out-wrestling guys who won medals in the olympics for wrestling.

Looking at this data, Nate Diaz should be the favorite.

But your goal isn't to release lines that are fair or accurate. Your goal is to sucker people into betting on the loser so you can profit from their poor choices.

Your lines come out and Conor is a -200 favorite, like most would expect him to be. Gamblers look at the line and expect Conor to have near to 70% chance of winning the fight but in reality you expected Conor to lose and only made him the favorite to con casual gamblers who have limited access to information on betting on the loser.

Very good scenario. This has happened before, but also, some of the info gets out, right? So some people start du hammer the Diaz line which creates a domino effect, countering this scenario pretty effectively. But i dont agree, this has happened from time to time i think, espicially as your said on big fights where the bookies potentialle can earn good money setting inaccurate line to bait people in or set a dummy line.

[Thor4140]

Huh? Books aren’t in the business of trying to fool the gambler. They place a line and want 50/50 action on each side to collect their vig.

You think these line makers know these fighters? No. They don’t care,

Good god this is the biggest myth in handicapping and i can't believe there is someone out there that honestly believes this.

[bjpenn85]

Good god this is the biggest myth in handicapping and i can't believe there is someone out there that honestly believes this.

most important thing is that were all getting limited to pennies. Thats our biggest problem, that dayvwe can bet freely were rich

[Enfuego]

Scenario:

Let's say you owned pinnacle. Chances are you've built up a network of information collecting in mixed martial arts over the years to help oddsmakers set lines.

Now imagine if Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz 3 was going down. (This is just a fake scenario I'm making up)

Your sources close to Conor say he's spent the past 12 months snorting coke. This damaged his heart, Conor has no cardio. It also damaged his timing and hand eye coordination. In addition to this, Conor tore his ACL and broke his left hand in training but decided to not pull out of the fight.

Your sources close to Nate Diaz say Floyd Mayweather Jr. and olympic wrestlers have been training him. Your sources say Nate Diaz knocked Paulie Malignaggi out cold in sparring and has been out-wrestling guys who won medals in the olympics for wrestling.

Looking at this data, Nate Diaz should be the favorite.

But your goal isn't to release lines that are fair or accurate. Your goal is to sucker people into betting on the loser so you can profit from their poor choices.

Your lines come out and Conor is a -200 favorite, like most would expect him to be. Gamblers look at the line and expect Conor to have near to 70% chance of winning the fight but in reality you expected Conor to lose and only made him the favorite to con casual gamblers who have limited access to information on betting on the loser.

No dude, as a linesmaker your goal isn't to sucker people into betting on a loser. Your goal is attract money coming in on both sides to collect the interest free vig. That's what I think you're missing.

[Enfuego]

Good god this is the biggest myth in handicapping and i can't believe there is someone out there that honestly believes this.

If you say so.

[Sanity Check]

Xiaonan Yan.

Wuu Yanan.

Two female fighters out of china. Don't get them mixed up.

.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[ichiro4thehall]

Sanity Check - Dude, you have an apt name. I really hope you bet small. You should read about market theory. Betting lines are markets just like the stock market, price of ipads, oil price. No book would ever put out reverse lines to trick casual gamblers. Or to correct myself a bit, no book would ever put out reverse lines to trick gamblers and be able to keep them up for more than 20 minutes(most likely 2 minutes).

Anyone know where to find a list of judges for the fights? Will there be Chinese judges, and if so, will it be one Chinese judge per fight?

[Thrilla]

Sanity Check - Dude, you have an apt name. I really hope you bet small. You should read about market theory. Betting lines are markets just like the stock market, price of ipads, oil price. No book would ever put out reverse lines to trick casual gamblers. Or to correct myself a bit, no book would ever put out reverse lines to trick gamblers and be able to keep them up for more than 20 minutes(most likely 2 minutes).

Anyone know where to find a list of judges for the fights? Will there be Chinese judges, and if so, will it be one Chinese judge per fight?

Don't worry he does bet small and if he claims otherwise well that's just a weak attempt at trolling. Oh and people call him inSanity and idiot and retard and fool and moron and loser and many more things.

[PaperTrail07]

Thrill@ ITS TUESDAY......thread?

Don't worry he does bet small and if he claims otherwise well that's just a weak attempt at trolling. Oh and people call him inSanity and idiot and retard and fool and moron and loser and many more things.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah -that's like saying-lets change up the slots in vegas----lets adjust this proven winner that damn near nobody beats If they did that, they are just gambling themselves and leaving holes to get exploited w the use of arb...

Sanity Check - Dude, you have an apt name. I really hope you bet small. You should read about market theory. Betting lines are markets just like the stock market, price of ipads, oil price. No book would ever put out reverse lines to trick casual gamblers. Or to correct myself a bit, no book would ever put out reverse lines to trick gamblers and be able to keep them up for more than 20 minutes(most likely 2 minutes).

Anyone know where to find a list of judges for the fights? Will there be Chinese judges, and if so, will it be one Chinese judge per fight?

[UncleChael]

War Diaz!!!

[Enfuego]

Sanity Check - Dude, you have an apt name. I really hope you bet small. You should read about market theory. Betting lines are markets just like the stock market, price of ipads, oil price. No book would ever put out reverse lines to trick casual gamblers. Or to correct myself a bit, no book would ever put out reverse lines to trick gamblers and be able to keep them up for more than 20 minutes(most likely 2 minutes).

Anyone know where to find a list of judges for the fights? Will there be Chinese judges, and if so, will it be one Chinese judge per fight?

I'm glad someone else is telling him too.

[Sanity Check]

No book would ever put out reverse lines to trick casual gamblers.

Why ever not?

I'm glad someone else is telling him too.

........

[Thrilla]

Thrill@ ITS TUESDAY......thread?

Big US Open card. No time.

[JIBBBY]

This card blows and so does the start time.. I'm out.. I highly doubt I'll be watching or betting much on this event.

I'll still post the write ups though.. PRELIMS!!






145 lbs.: Movsar Evloev vs. Zhenhong Lu

Evloev (11-0) spent the entirety of his pre-UFC career in the M-1 promotion, where he claimed a Bantamweight title in 2017 and enjoyed three successful defenses. He made his Octagon debut in April, overpowering late replacement Seung Woo Choi on the mat en route to a unanimous decision.
Four of his seven stoppage wins have come by rear naked choke.
Lu (18-6) rebounded from a 2-4 skid to win 11 of his next 12, eight of them via stoppage. He last fought on June 13th, wrapping up a kimura for his sixth pro submission win.
He steps in for Mike Grundy, who failed to secure a ****, on just over a week’s notice.
This is actually a rematch of Evloev’s second pro fight back in 2015, which saw the green Russian dominate the majority of the fight on the mat. Comparing their recent efforts, I don’t expect it to be much more competitive this go-around. Evloev’s exquisite chain wrestling still gives him in the edge in Lu’s favored clinch exchanges and the former’s striking has developed to the point where he can ostensibly dominate wherever he chooses.
Evloev just seems to be better absolutely everywhere and should win every round with relative ease through slick kickboxing and top control. Grundy would have been an intriguing style clash, seeing as he’s got the wrestling credentials to challenge Evloev in his area of expertise, but expect the Russian to make the most of this easier ask with a one-sided victory.
Prediction: Evloev via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Damir Ismagulov vs. Thiago Moises

Damir Ismagulov (18-2) — another M-1 champion — defended his Lightweight belt twice before joining UFC in Dec. 2018. His Octagon career has seen him win one-sided decisions over Alex Gorgees and Joel Alvarez, the latter of whom was riding a 10-fight finish streak.
He has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted one other.
Thiago Moises (12-3) — the former Resurrection Fighting Alliance (RFA) Lightweight champion — demolished Gleidson Cutis on “Contender Series: Brazil” to secure a UFC contract. He struggled against veteran Beneil Dariush’s wrestling in his debut, but used his own takedown prowess to claim victory over Kurt Holobaugh in May.
He stands one inch shorter than Ismagulov and will give up four inches of reach.
I picked against Moises in the Holobaugh fight by virtue of the Brazilian’s historical issues with pressure. Instead, he used his wrestling to defuse Holobaugh’s offense. It was the right thing to do, but we’ve seen what happens when that option isn’t available to him — both Robert Watley and the aforementioned Dariush managed to more or less dominate him by keeping him on the back foot and/or the mat.
Ismagulov’s a dangerous takedown artist in his own right and should be able to drag Moises to the mat as needed. From there, his top game is more than sufficient to ride out large chunks of each round. Unless Moises has considerably improved his wrestling, Ismagulov grinds him out without much issue.
Prediction: Ismagulov via unanimous decision
Related
China Protests Won’t Rattle Team Andrade

125 lbs.: Kai Kara-France vs. Mark De La Rosa

Kai Kara-France (19-7) scored the most impressive finish of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 with a 30-second knockout of Terrence Mitchell in the opening round, only to fall to No. 1-seed Alexandre Pantoja in the quarterfinals. After a decision loss to Tatsumitsu Wada — who recently gave Demetrious Johnson a tough out — “Don’t Blink” went on to win his last seven, including two in UFC.
He is 12-1 overall in his last 13 fights.
Mark De La Rosa (11-2) — husband of Flyweight contender Montana — lost his unbeaten record in his Octagon debut against Tim Elliott thanks to TUF 24 winner’s anaconda choke. “The Bumblebee” came back to win two straight before falling to Alex Perez in Philadelphia.
Five of his six submission wins have come by rear-naked choke.
This is practically a homecoming for Kara-France, who’s spent large chunks of his career fighting in East Asia, and it looks like it’ll be a successful one. In addition to his knockout power, Kara-France has shown quality takedown defense and scrambling during his Octagon tenure, ostensibly nullifying De La Rosa’s one area of superiority. If “The Bumblebee” can’t consistently get on top and work his way to the back, then he’s at the mercy of a more technically sound and devastating striker.
De La Rosa’s chokes are an ever-present threat, but Kara-France’s considerable stand up edge and ostensible ability to keep it on the feet should earn him a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Kara-France via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Andrade Vs Zhang’ In Shenzhen!

135 lbs.: Karol Rosa vs. Lara Procopio

A teammate of Jessica Andrade at Parana Vale Tudo, Karol Rosa (11-3) has seen seven consecutive fights end inside the distance. She has won three of her last four, most recently avenging an early-career loss to Giselle Moreira via third-round technical knockout.
She stands two inches taller than Lara Procopio (6-0) at 5’6.”
Nova Uniao’s Procopio is the latest double champ to enter the Octagon, claiming two titles in three Shooto Brasil appearances. Last year saw her defeat Rosa teammate Mariana Morais for the Bantamweight title in March, then drop 10 pounds to defeat future Queen of Pancrase Sidy Rocha five months later.
She has finished two professional opponents via first-round armbar.
I know I bang the “generalist vs. specialist” drum more than I probably should, but it’s an easy shorthand to describe a situation like this. Though Rosa looks to be the more comfortable and capable of the two on the feet, Procopio’s single-minded devotion to dragging opponents to the mat as soon as possible will make that advantage meaningless.
To her credit, Rosa does have some strong ground chops of her own and figures to at least be Procopio’s match in the wrestling. Unfortunately, she’s also been submitted twice while in top position, meaning any grappling engagement will be favorable for Procopio. Procopio’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess and Rosa’s leaky ground defense result in a tapout finish before the midpoint.
Prediction: Procopio via first-round submission



135 lbs.: Sumudaerji vs. Andre Soukhamthath

China’s Sumudaerji (9-3) entered UFC having never gone the distance, and took on fellow finisher Louis Smolka in his promotional debut last November. “The Tibetan Eagle” struggled mightily with Smolka’s takedowns and ground assault, ultimately tapping to a second-round armbar for his third loss in six fights.
He has knocked out eight of his professional opponents, six of them in the first round.
Andre Soukhamthath (13-7) is just 2-4 in the Octagon, but has had one of the most unique UFC runs in recent memory. In addition to his comeback knockout of Luke Sanders, “The Asian Sensation” lost questionable decisions to Albert Morales and Alejandro Perez and could have defeated Sean O’Malley had he noticed the latter’s foot injury and stopped trying to wrestle.
Eight of his 11 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Soukhamthath’s bizarre compulsion to wrestle despite his striking prowess might actually work out in his favor here. Sumudaerji is a considerable threat on the feet, an explosive southpaw with legitimate power, but he’s a non-factor on the ground. If Louis Smolka, a natural Flyweight with well-documented wrestling issues, could take him down, Soukhamthath can do the same.
Soukhamthath is durable and skilled enough with his standup to hold his own until the double-leg presents itself. From there, it’s just a matter of whether he wants to choke Sumudaerji out or pound him into submission.
Prediction: Soukhamthath via first-round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! ‘Andrade Vs Zhang’ In Shenzhen!

185 lbs.: Jun Yong Park vs. Anthony Hernandez

One of two Korean Top Team competitors debuting on Saturday, Jun Yong Park (9-3) is undefeated since starting his career 3-3, going the distance just once in his current streak. The run includes a submission of Professional Fight League (PFL) standout Ray Cooper III and a decision over Glenn Sparv, who had won six straight.
He has finished five professional opponents with strikes and three via submission.
Anthony Hernandez (7-0) won his first five professional fights by first-round stoppage before defeating Brendan Allen for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title and earning a spot on “Contender Series.” A failed drug test for marijuana marred his 40-second knockout of Jordan Wright, after which “Fluffy” succumbed to Markus Perez’s anaconda choke in his delayed debut.
All four of his submission wins have come by guillotine.
Of the many hard-nosed Korean sluggers to join UFC in recent times, Park is among the most technically sound. He’s an excellent offensive boxer, working behind a stiff jab to put together crisp, powerful combinations. Hernandez looked pedestrian enough against Perez that a debut victory for Park is more than feasible.
That said, Park does have one key flaw: he’s either easy to take down or intentionally doesn’t defend shots in favor of quickly getting back to his feet. That usually works for him, but Hernandez’s best weapon is his guillotine, and he’s enough of a wrestler to put Park in a position to leave his neck out. Expect some quality slugging before Hernandez takes him to the mat and locks up something unpleasant on the way up.
Prediction: Hernandez via first-round submission
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135 lbs.: Batgerel Danaa vs. Heili Alateng

Batgerel Danaa (6-1) opened his professional career undefeated (4-0), including a decision over Kai Kara-France, before suffering a decision loss to Baasankhuu Damlanpurev, who had defeated Alateng one fight prior. After missing all of 2016 and 2017, Danaa returned last year with two (technical) knockout wins in two months.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
Heili Alateng (12-7-1), by contrast, started his career 4-6 before embarking on his current run, the only loss of which came against recent Horiguchi-slayer Kai Asakura in 2017. He has since won two straight, both via (technical) knockout, in South Korea’s venerable Road FC promotion.
Four of his professional wins, including three of his last four, have come via (technical) knockout.
These two heavy-handed, well-rounded unknowns should make for an excellent opener. Danaa is as gritty as they come and Alateng has legitimate one-shot power in his right hand, making this a potential high-octane slugfest that should delight the Shenzhen crowd.
This may come down to Danaa being the busier of the two. Alateng tends to be sparing with his offense, and while that right hand of his is dynamite, I’ve seen Danaa walk through serious fire without flinching. Combine that with the Mongolian’s ostensible wrestling edge and you’ve got a recipe for a Danaa decision. He out-works and out-brawls the younger man for 15 entertaining minutes.
Prediction: Danaa via unanimous decision

[Thor4140]

Why ever not?



........

First time i ever ever agreed with you. If people don’t think books take positions on some games and put out lines that will get them the majority of the action on the side they want bet than maybe it is time to stop gambling. For fuks sakes i can set a line to get 50/50 action. Books rarely do.

[Teem]

Those of you that are sharp with WMMA, what do you guys think of Inoue/Yanan? I wanted to play Inoue. It seems Yanan has beaten a lot of fighters with losing records...

[bjpenn85]

Those of you that are sharp with WMMA, what do you guys think of Inoue/Yanan? I wanted to play Inoue. It seems Yanan has beaten a lot of fighters with losing records...

But both sucks, therefor they both are unreliable in their own way, imo. Buuuuuut, gun to my head i would pick Inue out of experience bla bla, but shes old...ah i just dont see how anyone can be really sure of anything in this matchup, perhaps i havent put enough into it. But often times when i see two fighters like this i instantly go, oh these two idiots i dont want to do bizz with very fast. When i see someone that is really talented i know he will most likely win, so im more into that bizz. Too observe two mediocre fighters, too see whos most mediocre THAT bizz im not in. U know?

With very well known fighters, whos a household name in the UFC, where i know whats their bottom and top game are, i know their ceiling, bla bla i can take a shot and try.

Let us turn to philosophy for a second, what is being good and bad? Whats the consequence?

Being good - consistency
Being bad - inconsistent

So, since both fighters are, ill say relatively speaking, bad, they are inconsistent.

Thats basically why i back off, i can smell trouble....from a mile away.

[Sanity Check]

Wuu Yanan missed weight by 3 pounds. Weighed 129 in a 126 zone.

I'm taking a break from posting on forums & making an effort to focus on myself more. I've been saying foreverz I need to branch out, diversify and develop alt ways to make money that are more stable and reliable than gambling. But not been pulling the trigger on much of it.

Good luck, errybody~!

[nyrider88]

dont quit your day job just yet. NOBODY wins in the gambling industry both casinos and sportbets. i have seen it all and heard it all. i'm here to enjoy the fight show and will be happy just to break even.

[Teem]

If you guys had to pick, which would you pick to throw into a parlay... Ismagulav or Kara-France?

[PaperTrail07]

GL in Whatever you choose Sanity

Wuu Yanan missed weight by 3 pounds. Weighed 129 in a 126 zone.

I'm taking a break from posting on forums & making an effort to focus on myself more. I've been saying foreverz I need to branch out, diversify and develop alt ways to make money that are more stable and reliable than gambling. But not been pulling the trigger on much of it.

Good luck, errybody~!

[Pr0ph3t]

dont quit your day job just yet. NOBODY wins in the gambling industry both casinos and sportbets. i have seen it all and heard it all. i'm here to enjoy the fight show and will be happy just to break even.

$peak for your$elf...

[Enfuego]

First time i ever ever agreed with you. If people don’t think books take positions on some games and put out lines that will get them the majority of the action on the side they want bet than maybe it is time to stop gambling. For fuks sakes i can set a line to get 50/50 action. Books rarely do.

This is absurd. The books don't give two craps who covers a game except if the majority of the action is on one side. Books don't head fake people. You guys are over complicating this thing.

[bjpenn85]

If you guys had to pick, which would you pick to throw into a parlay... Ismagulav or Kara-France?

Ismagulov, pretty obvious, thank me later

[bjpenn85]

dont quit your day job just yet. NOBODY wins in the gambling industry both casinos and sportbets. i have seen it all and heard it all. i'm here to enjoy the fight show and will be happy just to break even.

Its an ok statement if youre 10 years old, but if youre past 18, i would question your cognition.

[Enfuego]

[BIGDAY]

Might completely pass on card.

Interested in seeing who’s in this thread at 2am central.

[Thrilla]

Its an ok statement if youre 10 years old, but if youre past 18, i would question your cognition.

You just insulted the guy WTF do you know about cognition. Piece of shit

[Thrilla]

Weigh Ins

[nyrider88]

Its an ok statement if youre 10 years old, but if youre past 18, i would question your cognition.

assuming you live off sportsbet, care to prove it?

[JC2008]

Let's go!!!!! First fight starts at 1am here lol