UFC on ESPN+ 15: Andrade vs. Zhang (August 31, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+, 6:00 am ET
Jessica Andrade vs Weili Zhang (for straw weight title)
Li Jingliang vs Eliaeu Zaleski dos Santos
Song Kenan vs Derrick Krantz
Jamahal Hill vs Da Un Jung
Mizuki Inoue vs W Yanan

ESPN, 3:00 am ET
Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy
Damir Ismagulov vs Thiago Moises
Mark De La Rosa vs Kai Kara-France
Lara Procopio vs Karol Rosa
Su Mudaerji vs Andre Soukhamthath
Anthony Hernandez vs Jun Yong Park

[Thrilla]

Event Background

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang (also known as UFC Fight Night 157 or UFC on ESPN+ 15) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on August 31, 2019 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre Arena in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.^[1][2]

The event will mark the promotion's first visit to Shenzhen.^[2]

A UFC Women's Strawweight Championship bout between current champion Jéssica Andrade and Weili Zhang has been slated to serve as the event's headliner.^[3]

A flyweight bout between Luana Carolina and Yanan W u has been rescheduled and is expected to take place at the event.^[4] The pairing was first scheduled to take place at UFC 237. However, W u pulled out of the bout due to injury and she was replaced by Priscila Cachoeira.^[5] In turn, Luana suffered from a Fractured spine and was forced to pull from the event^[6] and Luana was replaced by Mizuki Inoue.^[7]

A welterweight bout between Li Jingliang and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was initially scheduled to take place in November of 2018 at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2. However, Santos pulled out of the contest on October 27 due to a knee injury.^[8] He was replaced by David Zawada.^[9] The pairing has been rescheduled for this event.^[10]

A light heavyweight bout between Saparbek Safarov and Da Un Jung was scheduled for the event. However, on August 5, 2019 it was announced that Safarov withdrew from the event for undisclosed reasons and he was replaced by Jamahal Hill.^[11] In turn, Hill was forced to withdraw from the card due to v i s a issue. It is unclear at the moment if a replacment will be sought by UFC officials.^[12]

[Thrilla]

Chinese government is cracking down on MMA fighters with tattoos.

[JIBBBY]

Garbage card.. Not looking forward to it.. Asian fade in play here though ...

[JIBBBY]

Chinese government is cracking down on MMA fighters with tattoos.

Lol.. Silly China...

[Unwritten Law]

Weili Zhang all day at a great price, she will be the champ

[bjpenn85]

Weili Zhang all day at a great price, she will be the champ

What about the current price? +160 all day?

I think shes getting rushed into this title fight as the new UFC has a tendency to do these day. I havent made up my mind yet. Leaning Andrade so far.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Not staying up all night to watch this one, that's for sure.

Might make some bets and then check results in the morning.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Garbage card.. Not looking forward to it.. Asian fade in play here though ...

Don't let the asians scare you Jibby, there's money to be made.....

[nyrider88]

one of those cards that you either make a shit ton or go broke, treat it like a trip to the casino.

[Enfuego]

When are the lines coming out?

[Sanity Check]

When are the lines coming out?

Would guess later than normal.

This is a decent opportunity for books, the overwhelming majority of gamblers (myself included) won't be familiar with many of the names fighting on this card. Books can open with switched lines where the favorite is the underdog to fool most who bet on favorites when they don't recognize names, into playing losing lines, and the majority wouldn't know the difference.

[Enfuego]

Would guess later than normal.

This is a decent opportunity for books, the overwhelming majority of gamblers (myself included) won't be familiar with many of the names fighting on this card. Books can open with switched lines where the favorite is the underdog to fool most who bet on favorites when they don't recognize names, into playing losing lines, and the majority wouldn't know the difference.

Huh? Books aren’t in the business of trying to fool the gambler. They place a line and want 50/50 action on each side to collect their vig.

You think these line makers know these fighters? No. They don’t care,

[WolfTicketDealer]

Huh? Books aren’t in the business of trying to fool the gambler. They place a line and want 50/50 action on each side to collect their vig.

You think these line makers know these fighters? No. They don’t care,

This is both naive and wrong. Sportsbooks take sides all the time. They'll even do it for the biggest sporting events of the year.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

this card might have the worst viewership numbers in a long time...

[Unwritten Law]

History potentially in the making as Weili Zhang has the chance to become the first Asian born UFC Champion. Lots on the line here, and she does it in her own backyard. Gonna be crazy if she does win and I think she has a very great chance of succeeding.

[Beelzebubzy]

Who are these fighters

[Sanity Check]

Books aren’t in the business of trying to fool the gambler.

You think these line makers know these fighters? No. They don’t care,

how do i delete this post? .

[JC2008]

Evloev is a beast. Extremely high workrate. I took him in his UFC debut against Sung Woo Choi but had him by stoppage and it went to the cards if I recall. Either way, I think he probably gets it done here.

[Enfuego]

This is both naive and wrong. Sportsbooks take sides all the time. They'll even do it for the biggest sporting events of the year.

Yeah guy, they take the side with the least amount of money wagered so they can make money. Are you guys new to this?

[Enfuego]

how do i delete this post? .

You honestly think some linesmaker is sitting there looking at two fighters named Andrade and Zhang that are fighting in China at 3 AM and he’s incorrectly lining a fight in an attempt to fool a small % of MMA gamblers? Really?

I visit FanDuel in NJ all the time and the managers there have no idea who Andrade and Zhang are. Hell, they barely know who Khabib is.

[Sanity Check]

Hopefully this won't be a card of -600 favorites and we'll get decent odds on locks.

You honestly think some linesmaker is sitting there looking at two fighters named Andrade and Zhang that are fighting in China at 3 AM and he’s incorrectly lining a fight in an attempt to fool a small % of MMA gamblers? Really?

I used to wake up at 3 AM everyday cuz reasons.

My schemes and plots went way past what you're describing as "unlikely" there.

Flipping odds to fool casual gamblers is easy mode.

Ever wonder why so many dogs hit on dana white's contender series? Its cuz oddsmakers often flip odds to fool casual gamblers into betting on the wrong fighter. Odds don't reflect probability of win/loss. They never did.

[Enfuego]

Hopefully this won't be a card of -600 favorites and we'll get decent odds on locks.


I used to wake up at 3 AM everyday cuz reasons.

My schemes and plots went way past what you're describing as "unlikely" there.

Flipping odds to fool casual gamblers is easy mode.

Ever wonder why so many dogs hit on dana white's contender series? Its cuz oddsmakers often flip odds to fool casual gamblers into betting on the wrong fighter. Odds don't reflect probability of win/loss. They never did.

Yes I do. Because nobody but hardcore MMA guys follow this stuff and know the lines are off on something like DWCS. These linesmakers are penetrating morons when it comes to MMA. You're giving them way too much credit here. What was the line on Khabib over Connor? Whatever it was, it was a damn joke. They have no clue bud. -300 on Curtis Blaydes in two weeks? He should be at least -475 if not higher.

You honestly think a linesmaker is going to hang a +175 knowing that guy is the better fighter? They're in this to make money period.

The linesmaker odds tells me who the linesmaker thinks will win the fight and I convert the odd into a %. That doesn't mean it will hit.

[Enfuego]

I'm actually being serious here. When I go into FanDuel, I'll talk to the tellers about the UFC bets and they litterally have no idea what I'm talking about. I'm friends with one of the managers there and he didn't know who Dustin Poirier was and Dustin Poirier was coming in that night to sign autographs. I'm serious.

[Sanity Check]

Yes I do. Because nobody but hardcore MMA guys follow this stuff and know the lines are off on something like DWCS. These linesmakers are penetrating morons when it comes to MMA. You're giving them way too much credit here. What was the line on Khabib over Connor? Whatever it was, it was a damn joke. They have no clue bud. -300 on Curtis Blaydes in two weeks? He should be at least -475 if not higher.

Do you know what country Curtis Blaydes opponent is from? He's from dagestan russia. Have you heard of this place? It boasts the highest number of skilled wrestlers per capita in the entire world. Respect for dagestan wrestling is the reason Blaydes isn't a bigger favorite.


Gamblers have a general idea for what odds should be with named opponents like Blaydes.

When they see names of fighters they don't recognize, its a completely different story. There's no name recognition value. You could flip the odds and the vast majority of people wouldn't know the difference. Most gamblers load up on favorites. Books can flip the odds (in some cases) to exploit that tendency and things would be more profitable that way.

In the last contender series event, I thought Shambazyan should have been the underdog leading into it and I would have been 100% right on that. Shambazyan's opponent trains out of fusion x cel in florida. Most wouldn't recognize the name of that gym, its where Jacare, Mike Perry and others recently trained out of. It has some tough names.


Managers at places like fanduel don't make odds. Fanduel isn't a book, it has a different business model. They don't care who wins or loses, their profit comes from the size of their paying userbase.

[Enfuego]

Do you know what country Curtis Blaydes opponent is from? He's from dagestan russia. Have you heard of this place? It boasts the highest number of skilled wrestlers per capita in the entire world. Respect for dagestan wrestling is the reason Blaydes isn't a bigger favorite.


Gamblers have a general idea for what odds should be with named opponents like Blaydes.

When they see names of fighters they don't recognize, its a completely different story. There's no name recognition value. You could flip the odds and the vast majority of people wouldn't know the difference. Most gamblers load up on favorites. For books they can flip the odds to exploit that tendency and things would be more profitable that way.

In the last contender series event, I thought Shambazyan should have been the underdog leading into it and I would have been 100% right on that. Shambazyan's opponent trains out of fusion x cel in florida. Most wouldn't recognize the name of that gym but its the place where Jacare, Mike Perry and others have recently trained out of. It has some tough names.


Managers at places like fanduel don't make odds. Fanduel isn't a book it has a different business model. They don't care who wins or losses, their profit comes from the size of their userbase.

Then bet against Blaydes if you'd like but please don't insult me here. If I'm posting here with you guys I kinda have a little bit of an idea who these fighters are.

No shit? Managers at FanDuel don't make the lines? I would've never thought that. Thanks for informing me.

[Enfuego]

Are you crazy man> You honestly think a linesmaker is looking at a fight and flipping a line to try and fool a gambler betting on MMA? You are trolling right?

This is not how it works man. You think some guy knew Shahbazyan would lose and made his opponent that big of a dog thinking most people would bet on Shah? You honestly think this is how it works? If you think this, I feel for you.

[Sanity Check]

Then bet against Blaydes if you'd like but please don't insult me here. If I'm posting here with you guys I kinda have a little bit of an idea who these fighters are.

No shit? Managers at FanDuel don't make the lines? I would've never thought that. Thanks for informing me.

Look @ last year's superbowl.

Do you think oddsmakers got it right with the patriots being underdogs?

I thought pats should have been favorites going into it and that bookies flipped the odds to fool casual gamblers into betting on the wrong team. Betting limits for that superbowl were abnormally high in comparison to previous superbowls.

I don't think it was some amazing coincidence that the underdog team won. It was a sharp play by books to profit from the public's tendency to take odds at face value.


edit - meant 2017 superbowl. lol Fukk I don't remember 100% but a lot of underdog teams win the superbowl don't they? And a lot of those dog teams should probably have been favorites.

[Enfuego]

Look @ last year's superbowl.

Do you think oddsmakers got it right with the patriots being underdogs?

I thought pats should have been favorites going into it and that bookies flipped the odds to fool casual gamblers into betting on the wrong team. Betting limits for that superbowl were abnormally high in comparison to previous superbowls.

I don't think it was some amazing coincidence that the underdog team won. It was a sharp play by books to profit from the public's tendency to take odds at face value.


edit - meant 2017 superbowl. lol Fukk I don't remember 100% but a lot of underdog teams win the superbowl don't they? And a lot of those dog teams should probably have been favorites.

What I'm saying to you though is these guys that create the lines don't sit around with some grand scheme to somehow fool gamblers. They are looking to set a fair line that will get even action on both sides and adjust according to the flow of the money. If anything, gamblers would be most likely to bet on Brady and the Pats as dogs? I know I did.

[Sanity Check]

What I'm saying to you though is these guys that create the lines don't sit around with some grand scheme to somehow fool gamblers. They are looking to set a fair line that will get even action on both sides and adjust according to the flow of the money. If anything, gamblers would be most likely to bet on Brady and the Pats as dogs? I know I did.

If I ran a book I would offer odds opposite to official odds sometimes. Derek Brunson and Casey Kenney might both have been favorites and I would have offered dog odds on Ian Heinisch and Manny Bermudez for the last UFC event.

Note how books never do that. Have you ever wondered why.

If lines were fair, shouldn't there be some competition between oddsmakers.

Those who make odds have informants in locker rooms, in gyms, etc. They have access to sources casual gamblers do not, an advantage of information which allows them to set odds as they see fit. And no I don't think those odds reflect fair value. Lines reflect what books think will make them the most money and be the most profitable.

[bjpenn85]

Enfuegos main point, balancing and being completely unbiased to either side is correct. Bookies dont care about whos winning and whos loosing. Not at all. They just balance shit out, and normally win money on any fight. Why should they do anything else.

Maybe occasionally youre right Sanity, i dont know, sometimes they might do something else, but your everyday book works like Enfuego says. And then they limit the shit out of you without any risk of being called out for it or penalised for it. Its a win win, money coming in, no money goes out, except to marketing too get new customers.

We should start a bookie ourself. Its almost too easy.

[Enfuego]

Enfuegos main point, balancing and being completely unbiased to either side is correct. Bookies dont care about whos winning and whos loosing. Not at all. They just balance shit out, and normally win money on any fight. Why should they do anything else.

Maybe occasionally youre right Sanity, i dont know, sometimes they might do something else, but your everyday book works like Enfuego says. And then they limit the shit out of you without any risk of being called out for it or penalised for it. Its a win win, money coming in, no money goes out, except to marketing too get new customers.

We should start a bookie ourself. Its almost too easy.

Well yeah, I wish I could. The other side of the counter makes all the money BJ.

[Enfuego]

If I ran a book I would offer odds opposite to official odds sometimes. Derek Brunson and Casey Kenney might both have been favorites and I would have offered dog odds on Ian Heinisch and Manny Bermudez for the last UFC event.

Note how books never do that. Have you ever wondered why.

If lines were fair, shouldn't there be some competition between oddsmakers.

Those who make odds have informants in locker rooms, in gyms, etc. They have access to sources casual gamblers do not, an advantage of information which allows them to set odds as they see fit. And no I don't think those odds reflect fair value. Lines reflect what books think will make them the most money and be the most profitable.

Yeah, but you do that a few times and watch the player pound the shit out of a dog and you might get taken for a good amount of money.

[Sanity Check]

Derek Brunson closed around +143 at the last UFC event.

If a book offered Ian Heinisch at +143 on flipped odds. Gamblers would opt for the big arbitrage(arb) play.

They would pound Brunson at +143 then they would pound Heinisch at +143. Betting equal amounts on Brunson and Heinisch at +143 they would be guaranteed to win money. It would get pounded to max bet limit.

That could be a million dollar idea if someone was savvy enough on dog picks to make it work.

[Sanity Check]

Enfuegos main point, balancing and being completely unbiased to either side is correct. Bookies dont care about whos winning and whos loosing. Not at all. They just balance shit out, and normally win money on any fight. Why should they do anything else.

Maybe occasionally youre right Sanity, i dont know, sometimes they might do something else, but your everyday book works like Enfuego says. And then they limit the shit out of you without any risk of being called out for it or penalised for it. Its a win win, money coming in, no money goes out, except to marketing too get new customers.

We should start a bookie ourself. Its almost too easy.

I think books are a shell game.

A casual gambler will bet $100 on a -200 play and win.

Then they'll see another -200 line and think its exactly the same as the line they played and won. But. Its. Not. They'll look at odds like -200 and think they have around 66.6% probability of winning. But. They. Don't. That could be one of the key issues many gamblers have is trusting books to give them odds that are fair.

IMO odds can be as deceptive as old soothsayers who tried to predict the future by looking at the entrails of chickens. Its a rorschach test. System is gamed and rigged to a degree but not necessarily where people expect.