UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes (June 08, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

UFC Fighting
Selection : H. Cejudo 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +100 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Ferguson 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -155 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Rivera 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +295 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Tuivasa 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -145 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Wineland 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -120 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : B. Lewis 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

[PaperTrail07]

Never a walk in the park w Rivera but the books agree at -365....that's A HEAVY fav for a man that's only recently lost to Moraes and Sterling....agree w Lewis...I also don't think The Dentist will land that shot.....Skills are HEAVY in favor of Lewis there.....that and the Yan line should be flipped IMO

Like Moraes, Cerrone, Yan and lewis. Very confident in Yan, walk in the park. Cerrone got a 55% chance of winning, moraes perhaps 65%, Lewis will win every single sec of his fight, or alternatively win every sec until KOed.

[JIBBBY]

I'm going big on El Cucuy Tony Ferguson..

[Teem]

Who's the dude Wineland is fighting?

[PaperTrail07]

just te sherdog...
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Grigory-Popov-131039

Who's the dude Wineland is fighting?

[bjpenn85]

Never a walk in the park w Rivera but the books agree at -365....that's A HEAVY fav for a man that's only recently lost to Moraes and Sterling....agree w Lewis...I also don't think The Dentist will land that shot.....Skills are HEAVY in favor of Lewis there.....that and the Yan line should be flipped IMO

30-27 or a KO.

Im not willing to negotiate. Hes not going to remotely loose one round.

I dont care who you have fought, i care about who you are RIGHT NOW.

30-27, not.willing.to.negotiate.

[THE_RUDESTER]

I'm going big on El Cucuy Tony Ferguson..

Let's Go. Cucuy Time. Ferguson is definitely the elite fighter in this match up. I was a worried about him getting rocked in this fight because he is constantly taking hits but he has shown nothing but heart fight after fight and I don't think Dad Cerrone can hang with Ferguson once they start to exchange. Cerrone usually loses vs champion level fighters and this weekend should be no different.

Ferguson -165 $990 to win $600

[JIBBBY]

Let's Go. Cucuy Time. Ferguson is definitely the elite fighter in this match up. I was a worried about him getting rocked in this fight because he is constantly taking hits but he has shown nothing but heart fight after fight and I don't think Dad Cerrone can hang with Ferguson once they start to exchange. Cerrone usually loses vs champion level fighters and this weekend should be no different.

Ferguson -165 $990 to win $600

If Cowboy is trading punch for punch with El Cucuy I still like Tony's chin to hold up better. Cucuy even when rocked standing still is dangerous and just hangs in there. Cowboy might ball up on the flip when rocked. Cowboy is weak in the body also, Tony might attack the body of Cowboy.

[Baraldsson]

Cowboy might ball up … when rocked. Cowboy is weak in the body also, Tony might attack the body of Cowboy.

I can definitely see Tony attacking Cowboy to the body and Cowboy trying to test Tony's knees with leg kicks. We've seen quit in Cowboy before but never in El Cucuy.

[magpie878]

(as I often say), I'm pretty new to following UFC.... who beat Ferguson previously, and were they legit losses or flukey? I don't remember seeing him in my brief time. I've gotten to see Cerrone several times now and he hasn't lost, despite being a constant dog.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah I see him advancing and being pretty dangerous myself......Its just a TON of respect in that line.....JR would need the KO of his career or SOMEHOW lay and pray with takedowns....

30-27 or a KO.

Im not willing to negotiate. Hes not going to remotely loose one round.

I dont care who you have fought, i care about who you are RIGHT NOW.

30-27, not.willing.to.negotiate.

[PaperTrail07]

Cowboy is good when he advances....nobody backs down TF----

If Cowboy is trading punch for punch with El Cucuy I still like Tony's chin to hold up better. Cucuy even when rocked standing still is dangerous and just hangs in there. Cowboy might ball up on the flip when rocked. Cowboy is weak in the body also, Tony might attack the body of Cowboy.

[bjpenn85]

Let's Go. Cucuy Time. Ferguson is definitely the elite fighter in this match up. I was a worried about him getting rocked in this fight because he is constantly taking hits but he has shown nothing but heart fight after fight and I don't think Dad Cerrone can hang with Ferguson once they start to exchange. Cerrone usually loses vs champion level fighters and this weekend should be no different.

Ferguson -165 $990 to win $600

1K. Woaw, crazy. You see something i dont.

How do you cap this fight in terms of percentage?

[bjpenn85]

Yeah I see him advancing and being pretty dangerous myself......Its just a TON of respect in that line.....JR would need the KO of his career or SOMEHOW lay and pray with takedowns....

He got the forward pressure of Tony ferguson, but with a sound defence to back that shit up. Sucks thats bookies saw this coming. They did their homework on this guy. Im willing to take the bate here and play him. But i didnt get a good line.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah 100% agree......they didn't even play off the name factor of JR ......

He got the forward pressure of Tony ferguson, but with a sound defence to back that shit up. Sucks thats bookies saw this coming. They did their homework on this guy. Im willing to take the bate here and play him. But i didnt get a good line.

[Teem]

Any reads on Kattar/Lamas? Interested in playing Kattar.

[jacharron17]

Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone on paper seems like a complete blowout win for Ferguson. I'm wondering why the line is moving in favour of Cerrone this past 24 hours...

[bjpenn85]

Any reads on Kattar/Lamas? Interested in playing Kattar.

Big play on Kattar, go for it!

[bjpenn85]

Tony Ferguson vs Donald Cerrone on paper seems like a complete blowout win for Ferguson. I'm wondering why the line is moving in favour of Cerrone this past 24 hours...

- El cucuy apparently was a little crazy after all.
- Cerrone looking very sharp lately
- Cerrones finishing power, mixed with ferg weak defence, and perhaps the chance of ferg getting finished, and is not let off the hook, as he normally does.
- Knee injury
- A typical 50/50 fight where no man should be +180 or +150. Line will end up at evens, as it should have been all along.

[Enfuego]

UFC Fighting
Selection : H. Cejudo 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +100 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Ferguson 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -155 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Rivera 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +295 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Tuivasa 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -145 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Wineland 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -120 for Game

UFC Fighting
Selection : B. Lewis 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -230 for Game

Is this your parlay for the week?

[Demonata]

I hope cejudo loses!

[bjpenn85]

I hope cejudo loses!

Mee too. Sicken tired off hearing all the bla bla about gold and and olympic gold medals. So annoying that dude.

[Demonata]

Mee too. Sicken tired off hearing all the bla bla about gold and and olympic gold medals. So annoying that dude.

I totally agree man. He's getting so cocky. I still say t j is better than him. I hope maraes knocks him out!!

[JIBBBY]

Angela Hill I think has a shot.. Asian fade could be in play here. How good is this Asian chick?

Doesn't Angela have a shot at a decision win here? Those decision prop odds should be in the +200's when it comes out. Angela Hill looked damn good in her last fight decision win. She looked much improved. She wins most of her fights by decision also.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Angela-Hill-148517

UFC 238 - Strawweight 3 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - ESPN+
Sat 6/8		1901 Angela Hill		+170
7:30PM		1902 Xiaonan Yan		-200

[bjpenn85]

Angela Hill I think has a shot.. Asian fade could be in play here. How good is this Asian chick?

Doesn't Angela have a shot at a decision win here? Those decision prop odds should be in the +200's when it comes out. Angela Hill looked damn good in her last fight decision win. She looked much improved. She wins most of her fights by decision also.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Angela-Hill-148517

UFC 238 - Strawweight 3 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - ESPN+
Sat 6/8		1901 Angela Hill		+170
7:30PM		1902 Xiaonan Yan		-200

I think the asien should be favoured, but she doesnt throw, so many comboes, but, maybe her jab and 1 2 will be enough. But Angela Hills movement may counter some of that, to be honest i really struggle to see anything else than a very close fight. And with Angela Hill at +170, the fight is def off. I can guarentee you that this fight will not end inside distance. Both fighters def going to win one round a piece, so...how can you really give one or the other a +170 mark. Line is off, but asian should be favoured but only slightly imo, only slightly.

[JIBBBY]

I think the asien should be favoured, but she doesnt throw, so many comboes, but, maybe her jab and 1 2 will be enough. But Angela Hills movement may counter some of that, to be honest i really struggle to see anything else than a very close fight. And with Angela Hill at +170, the fight is def off. I can guarentee you that this fight will not end inside distance. Both fighters def going to win one round a piece, so...how can you really give one or the other a +170 mark. Line is off, but asian should be favoured but only slightly imo, only slightly.

One thing for sure is it probably goes the distance.. Odds reflect it at -400 too..

Angela Hill vs Xiaonan Yan - Strawweight 3 rounds - UFC 238
Sat 6/8		1903 Hill / Yan goes 3 round distance		-400
7:30PM		1904 Fight won't go 3 round distance		+280

[THE_RUDESTER]

1K. Woaw, crazy. You see something i dont.

How do you cap this fight in terms of percentage?

I'm betting more then I usually do. I'm taking a shot here. I know on paper this looks like a coin flip fight. I feel like I have the better fighter and at the end of the night I will win. I was a little worried because this is a 3 round fight that can possibly favor Cerrone but I think Ferguson will come in with a solid geame plan and get the win here. Cerrone has been dominating lately but one thing I have seen in him is he will quit when he is rocked and I can see that happening here vs a more well rounded opponent. I've seen Ferguson get clipped and dropped but he flops right back up and it seems to get him going. With a good approach to this fight and Ferguson not getting into any wild exchanges early I do not see him losing. El Cucuy Time.

[THE_RUDESTER]

1K. Woaw, crazy. You see something i dont.

How do you cap this fight in terms of percentage?

I've also seen video were Cowboy says he works out 4 hours a day and on the other side Ferguson is know to work out like no other at 7-8 hours a day. The hard work should make a difference come fight night. 1-2-3 years ago we all take Ferguson easy to beat Cowboy even at -300 why not take him here at -165. Let's see what happens.....

[bjpenn85]

I'm betting more then I usually do. I'm taking a shot here. I know on paper this looks like a coin flip fight. I feel like I have the better fighter and at the end of the night I will win. I was a little worried because this is a 3 round fight that can possibly favor Cerrone but I think Ferguson will come in with a solid geame plan and get the win here. Cerrone has been dominating lately but one thing I have seen in him is he will quit when he is rocked and I can see that happening here vs a more well rounded opponent. I've seen Ferguson get clipped and dropped but he flops right back up and it seems to get him going. With a good approach to this fight and Ferguson not getting into any wild exchanges early I do not see him losing. El Cucuy Time.

Im not sold on either fighter, i just tok cerrone at +145 for 1 unit. I think the odds were good. Tony gets rocked every fight, i feel like cerrone can do more with a rocked ferguson than, kevin lee and pettis can. But i also see problems for cerrone with establishing his game. How can cerrone get into his groove if youre getting chased and run down? I dont have any particularly good read on this fight, i feel its too many x-factors surrounding it. Therefor i would say that 1K bet, looks like a very risky and unwise decision. IMO this is not were you want to go heavy in....its a 50/50 fight like you said.

[bjpenn85]

But i hope it cashes obviously!

[THE_RUDESTER]

Im not sold on either fighter, i just tok cerrone at +145 for 1 unit. I think the odds were good. Tony gets rocked every fight, i feel like cerrone can do more with a rocked ferguson than, kevin lee and pettis can. But i also see problems for cerrone with establishing his game. How can cerrone get into his groove if youre getting chased and run down? I dont have any particularly good read on this fight, i feel its too many x-factors surrounding it. Therefor i would say that 1K bet, looks like a very risky and unwise decision. IMO this is not were you want to go heavy in....its a 50/50 fight like you said.

I agree with you for the most part. I know it's a risky bet but it's already placed no going back. From my point of veiw this isn't a 50/50 fight. I give the edge to Ferguson here and as long as his chin holds up well here and he doesn't get too reckless I do not see him losing the fight. Cerrone is very known for going down after some body/liver shots that's the reason he moved up to 170 I believe now he's back to 155 vs a very well rounded fighter. No one that Cerrone has beat lately is on Ferguson's level besides maybe Iaquinta. On the other side Ferguson has beat some more tougher opposition. Can Cerrone TKO/KO Ferguson? That's the only way I see him possibly winning and I do not think he will be the first person to TKO/KO Ferguson.

[bjpenn85]

I agree with you for the most part. I know it's a risky bet but it's already placed no going back. From my point of veiw this isn't a 50/50 fight. I give the edge to Ferguson here and as long as his chin holds up well here and he doesn't get too reckless I do not see him losing the fight. Cerrone is very known for going down after some body/liver shots that's the reason he moved up to 170 I believe now he's back to 155 vs a very well rounded fighter. No one that Cerrone has beat lately is on Ferguson's level besides maybe Iaquinta. On the other side Ferguson has beat some more tougher opposition. Can Cerrone TKO/KO Ferguson? That's the only way I see him possibly winning and I do not think he will be the first person to TKO/KO Ferguson.

Its a tuf sell, You may perhapse need to flatline Ferguson completely. How many times can the man survive being this rocked every fight thats my concern. Again, he is a maniac and if its a matter of a will, he wont stop. And the space cowboy need, he will guaranteed not get.

Can he go for takedowns and wrestle Ferguson for a dec win? Its not the type of gameplan cerrone would go for, but he has the skills.

Ahhh my bet feels like a looser bet.

I see value in cerrone +145, but i like ferg to win when i start to think about it.

But im not betting 1K hehe.

[PaperTrail07]

Micro w Rivera in there and besides that-Yes...so 2 Lotto tickeys...

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : H. Cejudo 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +115 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Ferguson 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Tuivasa 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -145 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Wineland 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -130 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : B. Lewis 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -225 for Game

Risking : 50.00 To Win : 758.02 USD

.

Is this your parlay for the week?

[Teem]

I see value in Ivanov in his fight with Tuivasa. Mainly fights as a counter puncher but trains at AKA and if he would utilize his wrestling he can beat Tuivasa. Tuivasa's grappling is trash. What do you guys think?

[Teem]

Honestly, the fighters I'm interested in betting on are...

Wineland
Ivanov
P. Yan
Kattar
Moraes