UFC Fight Night 142 Dos Santos v. Tuivasa (Saturday Dec. 1 2018)

**praisebuddha** · 11-28-18, 05:49 PM

Can anyone give me a good reason not to go large on Pedro ITD? Rua seems completely checked out to me. Also leaning Dos Santos. Cheers!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-28-18, 07:21 PM

Thanks for starting the thread. As far as Pedro vs. Shogun goes, I don’t think Pedro is a guy to trust as a big favorite. He has poor fight IQ and can’t strike at a high level for very long without gassing. Most likely he still finishes Shogun early but I think there are a lot better spots available at similar odds to Pedro ITD.

**praisebuddha** · 11-28-18, 07:59 PM

No problem for starting it up. Who are you looking at this weekend? Huge one with 2 UFC events on top of Wilder/Fury

**rsynweap84** · 11-28-18, 08:52 PM

Tuivasa!!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-28-18, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by praisebuddha

No problem for starting it up. Who are you looking at this weekend? Huge one with 2 UFC events on top of Wilder/Fury

I like Usman, Willis, Aguilar, and JDS

**KingHawkins** · 11-29-18, 09:11 AM

I like JDS (for medium, prob risk $200), Shogun (for pretty small, $20 to win $70 or whatever), Hunt (for schmedium, risk $100), Yusuff (over -500 now I think, so I am not sure if/how I will play this), Giagos (-350ish, so also not sure how I will play that).

I was going to go huge on Reis, but have since changed my mind. Small lean to Nguyen actually, but a No-Bet.

My bigger bets on UFC going to be on the Friday card.

Will be at the casino later today to get down some action.

**Sanity Check** · 11-29-18, 09:25 AM

Wilson Reis is slow.

His reactions & speed are what someone might expect from a heavyweight.

If Reis doesn't get the fight to the ground, he loses errytime.

**Sanity Check** · 11-29-18, 12:25 PM

His name used to be "Tony Martin".

Now its "Anthony Rocco Martin".

Did he enroll in the witness protection program, its almost like he doesn't want anyone to recognise or remember him.

**PaperTrail07** · 11-29-18, 01:34 PM

Love Usman
Hunt +100 in his "hood"
Nakamura

Perez Bena a tough call IMO

**KingHawkins** · 11-29-18, 03:23 PM

I also will be firing on Nakamura myself.

**PaperTrail07** · 11-29-18, 04:40 PM

Wow ....I expect a "back on the map" performance by Hunt....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I like Usman, Willis, Aguilar, and JDS

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-29-18, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by KingHawkins

I like JDS (for medium, prob risk $200), Shogun (for pretty small, $20 to win $70 or whatever), Hunt (for schmedium, risk $100), Yusuff (over -500 now I think, so I am not sure if/how I will play this), Giagos (-350ish, so also not sure how I will play that).

I was going to go huge on Reis, but have since changed my mind. Small lean to Nguyen actually, but a No-Bet.

My bigger bets on UFC going to be on the Friday card.

Will be at the casino later today to get down some action.

What changed your lean on the Nguyen+Reis fight?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-29-18, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Wow ....I expect a "back on the map" performance by Hunt....

Why?

**KingHawkins** · 11-29-18, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

What changed your lean on the Nguyen+Reis fight?

Well, I liked him initially as sort of a "fade the public" play. My initial gut when looking over that fight, was that Nguyen would be widely considered the favorite, and would be getting the large majority of the action. Reis a shorter guy, not great hands as I recall. More of a mini-Yoel Romero in body type, with less finishing ability. I bet on him and lost vs Moraga, I feel like he needs this fight after two losses in a row. But then as the days went on, action starting coming in, looking more split than towards Ben, and the line moving around a little bit, coming down towards Reis, then moving back towards Ben. I know probably everyone here caps fights based on the fighters (obviously this makes sense), but my style involves alot of line reading as well as actual fight analysis, and even though it's better to finalize my picks closer to fight time, I can't do that as easily with getting my action down legally now at a casino, which is a 50 minute drive.

I made that drive earlier, to get down my action for UFC this weekend as well as some large bets on the Cowgirls tonight, 1H +4 and bought up a 1/2 to 7.5 also. One line they didn't have up yet, that I may drive right back tomorrow to place, is on a TUF Finale lady brawl, I really like Pannie Kianzad over Macy Chiasson. I'll be calling them on the phone, and assuming they've added that wager option by tomorrow, ill go back and risk $500 on Pannie at -120 or whatever she ends up being.

**KingHawkins** · 11-29-18, 09:15 PM

got $550 down on Frazier at +125, $400 on Shahbazyan, $300 on Nakamura, $200 on JDS, and then several others for under $100. Also parlayed Usman with the Raptors 1H ML tonight (about to cash easily) for a little chunk.

Considering firing a little more on Matthews over Martin.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by KingHawkins

got $550 down on Frazier at +125, $400 on Shahbazyan, $300 on Nakamura, $200 on JDS, and then several others for under $100. Also parlayed Usman with the Raptors 1H ML tonight (about to cash easily) for a little chunk.

Considering firing a little more on Matthews over Martin.

Best of luck King!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:32 AM

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale: Usman vs. Dos Anjos Picks:
Raoni Barcelos Round 1 KO (Punches)
Tim Means Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Roosevelt Roberts Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Leah Letson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Michel Batista Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alex Perez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Kevin Aguilar Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Antonina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Edmen Shahbazyan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Pedro Munhoz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Pannie Kianzad Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Juan Espino Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:33 AM

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale: Usman vs. Dos Anjos

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Barcelos vs. Gutierrez (DEBUT)
Barcelos ITD (-135) 1.35u to win 1u

Fight #2: Means vs. Rainey
Means KO/TKO (+275) 2.5u
Means Round 2 (+600) .75u
Means Round 3 (+1075) .5u

Fight #3: Roberts (DEBUT) vs. Horcher
Roberts (-156) 3.91u to win 2.5u
Roberts+Horcher Won’t Go Distance (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Roberts Submission (+400) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Letson (DEBUT) vs. Stoliarenko (DEBUT)
Letson KO/TKO (+325) .5u

Hedge:
Stoliarenko ITD (+365) .5u

Fight #5: Batista (DEBUT) vs. Greene (DEBUT)
Batista (+148) 2u

Fight #6: Perez vs. Benavidez
Perez (-128) 2.56u to win 2u

Hedge:
Benavidez Submission (+930) .5u

Fight #7: Aguilar (DEBUT) vs. Glenn
Aguilar (+100) 4.9u
Aguilar KO/TKO (+690) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: A. Shevchenko (DEBUT) vs. Kim
A. Shevchenko ITD (+437) 1u

Fight #9: Shahbazyan (DEBUT) vs. Stewart
Shahbazyan+Stewart Under 1.5 (-125) 1.88u to win 1.5u
Shahbazyan KO/TKO (+175) 1.5u

Fight #10: Munhoz vs. Caraway
Munhoz ITD (+240) .5u
Munhoz Submission (+325) 2u

Hedge:
Caraway Decision (+315) .75u

Fight #11: Kianzad (DEBUT) vs. Chiasson (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #12: Espino (DEBUT) vs. Frazier (DEBUT)
Espino (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u
Espino+Frazier Won’t Start Round 2 (+120) 1u
Espino Round 1 (+250) .5u

Fight #13: Usman vs. Dos Anjos
Usman Unanimous Decision (+145) 2u

Straight Parlays:
Shevchenko/Usman (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
Means/Shevchenko (-108) 2.7u to win 2.5u
Barcelos/Roberts (+105) 1u
Roberts/Means (+106) 1u
Perez/Usman (+120) 1u
Means/Munhoz/Usman (+155) 1u
Barcelos/Means/Roberts/Letson/Shevchenko/Shahbazyan/Munhoz/Espino/Usman (+2333) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Waiting for Point Spreads

Full Card Props:
Waiting for Full Card Props

Multi-Event Parlays:
Usman+Dos Anjos GD/Kara-France (+108) 2u
Usman/Yusuff ITD (+111) 1u
Usman/Crute (+112) 1u
Barcelos+Gutierrez WGD/Yusuff+Mokhtarian WGD (+113) 1u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:35 AM

Will be adding some more bets tomorrow but wanted to get a draft of what I've got for the TUF Finale so far.

**KingHawkins** · 11-30-18, 09:12 AM

Betmma.tips and most other prediction sites I have looked at, showing me almost everyone with an opinion is on Espino. I gotta say, I love to see that, and it makes me want to add some more on Frazier, which I think I'll be doing. I liked what I saw at weigh-ins. My boy looking fit (relatively speaking) and strong, and Juan looking all of 38, with no bicep muscles to flex it seemed. I love opportunities like this. 14/15 hours and I guess I will see if I was right or wrong.

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 11:26 AM

Good Value on those Means Props IMO Hugo.....totally on board.....

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 11:27 AM

Love Usman... and before anyone goes betting Usman inside the distance -210 you might as well take the under 4.5 at +180 right>?

That under is a play for me for sure

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 11:41 AM

you see this card the same as me

I think we are going to kill it....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale: Usman vs. Dos Anjos

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Barcelos vs. Gutierrez (DEBUT)
Barcelos ITD (-135) 1.35u to win 1u

Fight #2: Means vs. Rainey
Means KO/TKO (+275) 2.5u
Means Round 2 (+600) .75u
Means Round 3 (+1075) .5u

Fight #3: Roberts (DEBUT) vs. Horcher
Roberts (-156) 3.91u to win 2.5u
Roberts+Horcher Won’t Go Distance (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Roberts Submission (+400) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Letson (DEBUT) vs. Stoliarenko (DEBUT)
Letson KO/TKO (+325) .5u

Hedge:
Stoliarenko ITD (+365) .5u

Fight #5: Batista (DEBUT) vs. Greene (DEBUT)
Batista (+148) 2u

Fight #6: Perez vs. Benavidez
Perez (-128) 2.56u to win 2u

Hedge:
Benavidez Submission (+930) .5u

Fight #7: Aguilar (DEBUT) vs. Glenn
Aguilar (+100) 4.9u
Aguilar KO/TKO (+690) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: A. Shevchenko (DEBUT) vs. Kim
A. Shevchenko ITD (+437) 1u

Fight #9: Shahbazyan (DEBUT) vs. Stewart
Shahbazyan+Stewart Under 1.5 (-125) 1.88u to win 1.5u
Shahbazyan KO/TKO (+175) 1.5u

Fight #10: Munhoz vs. Caraway
Munhoz ITD (+240) .5u
Munhoz Submission (+325) 2u

Hedge:
Caraway Decision (+315) .75u

Fight #11: Kianzad (DEBUT) vs. Chiasson (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #12: Espino (DEBUT) vs. Frazier (DEBUT)
Espino (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u
Espino+Frazier Won’t Start Round 2 (+120) 1u
Espino Round 1 (+250) .5u

Fight #13: Usman vs. Dos Anjos
Usman Unanimous Decision (+145) 2u

Straight Parlays:
Shevchenko/Usman (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
Means/Shevchenko (-108) 2.7u to win 2.5u
Barcelos/Roberts (+105) 1u
Roberts/Means (+106) 1u
Perez/Usman (+120) 1u
Means/Munhoz/Usman (+155) 1u
Barcelos/Means/Roberts/Letson/Shevchenko/Shahbazyan/Munhoz/Espino/Usman (+2333) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Waiting for Point Spreads

Full Card Props:
Waiting for Full Card Props

Multi-Event Parlays:
Usman+Dos Anjos GD/Kara-France (+108) 2u
Usman/Yusuff ITD (+111) 1u
Usman/Crute (+112) 1u
Barcelos+Gutierrez WGD/Yusuff+Mokhtarian WGD (+113) 1u

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 11:55 AM

However I am taking the dentist to win....Shah will see what its like to be in the cage with a fighter he cant simply walk down that's powerless...

**JIBBBY** · 11-30-18, 12:15 PM

NO thread for TUF 28 so here you go with the write ups anyways..

145 lbs.: Rick Glenn vs. Kevin Aguilar
Rick Glenn (21-5-1) stepped up in weight for his short-notice UFC debut, which saw him lose a decision to Evan Dunham, but walk away with a “Fight of the Night” bonus. “The Gladiator” has since won three of four bouts, including dishing out one of the most violent beatdowns in recent memory against favored prospect Gavin Tucker.
He stands five inches taller than Kevin Aguilar (15-1) at 6’0.”
“The Angel of Death” suffered a surprise loss to Leonard Garcia in his first bid for the Legacy FC Featherweight belt, but won it three years later and defended it against the likes of Damon Jackson, Justin Rader and Thanh Le. This streak led to a late-notice “Contender Series” appearance against Joey Gomez, whom he edged by split decision in July.
He steps in for Arnold Allen, who was originally booked to face Gilbert Melendez before “El Niño” had to bow out.
This might boil down to firepower. Glenn’s endless cardio and perpetual offense can break down most anyone willing to sit in the pocket with him, but Aguilar is the more violent puncher and has a solid jab that he can work off of effectively. In addition, Glenn’s happiness to trade mitigates that height advantage of his and should allow Aguilar to control the pocket with his jabs.
The question marks here are Aguilar’s ability to match Glenn’s pace on short notice and Glenn’s willingness/ability to get his nasty ground-and-pound going. Against a straightforward target, though, I expect Aguilar to thrive. Durability, power, and a sniper rifle jab carry Aguilar to victory in a “Fight of the Night” candidate.
Prediction: Aguilar via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Joseph Benavidez vs. Alex Perez
From 2010-2016, Joseph Benavidez’s (25-5) only losses came against Demetrious Johnson, while his wins included victories over Jussier Formiga, Tim Elliott and Henry Cejudo. After 1.5 years on the shelf, he took on Sergio Pettis at UFC 225 and walked away with a split decision loss.
He was originally booked to face Ray Borg at UFC Fight Night 139, only for Borg to withdraw on late notice.
Alex Perez (21-4) submitted Kevin Gray on “Contender Series” to set up an Octagon debut opposite C.J. de Tomas, whom Perez caught in a d’arce choke midway through the second round. He went on to upset TUF veteran Eric Shelton and blasted top prospect Jose Torres for just his fourth (technical) knockout victory.
He is two inches taller than Benavidez and will have a half-inch of reach on him.
Perez has all the momentum here, but I see this as a similar match up to Benavidez-Borg; though Perez is a fiercer striker than Borg, the submission-savvy wrestler is an archetype that Benavidez has been outclassing for over a decade. Perez doesn’t have the precise long-distance sniping that Pettis used to great effect and Benavidez can more than hold his own on the inside.
Benavidez still has a question mark dangling over his head after the poor performance against Pettis. That said, I expect him to be a lot more comfortable and effective against a familiar style clash. He out-scrambles Perez and lands enough haymakers to edge out a victory.
Prediction: Benavidez via unanimous decision
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265 lbs.: Maurice Greene vs. Michel Batista
Between his drunken shenanigans, one-sided feud with Juan Espino, and brutal knockout of Przemysław Mysiala in the opening round, Maurice Greene (5-2) established himself as one of the biggest personalities on TUF 28. He didn’t quite manage to be the best fighter, though, getting pounded out by the aforementioned Espino in the semifinal round.
He has submitted three opponents and knocked out one other.
Cuba’s Michel Bautista (4-0) rewarded Robert Whittaker’s decision to pick him by knocking out Josh Parisian in the quarterfinals. He couldn’t do the same to Justin Frazier, who knocked him out in the tail end of Round One.
He will give up four inches of height to the 6’7” Greene.
The looming question here is Batista’s willingness to wade through fire to implement his wrestling. After manhandling Parisian, he refused to engage with Justin Frazier and ultimately went down to a punch that really didn’t look that devastating. He’ll eat Greene alive on the mat, but he’ll have to show a lot more grit to do so.
It’s a coin flip, admittedly, but Greene’s height and the way Batista just folded against Frazier have me thinking the kickboxer pounds out the wrestler before long.
Prediction: Greene via first-round technical knockout
Related
Ultimate Fighter 28 - MMAmania.com

145 lbs.: Leah Letson vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Leah Letson (4-1) represented Team Gastelum on the show, defeating Bea Malekci to advance to the semifinals. In the final episode of the season, she faced Macy Chiasson, who took her out with knees in the first round.
Three of her four professional victories have come via (technical) knockout.
Julija Stoliarenko (4-2) entered TUF 28 with four armbar victories under her belt, then made it five at the expense of Marciea Allen in the opening round. She struggled to take down Pannie Kianzad in the next round, however, and suffered a submission loss.
All four of her submissions wins came in the first round.
The amount of mixed martial arts (MMA) fighters who can make fighting off their back work can be counted on one hand. Stoliarenko is not among them, and unless she beefs up her wrestling significantly, she’s going to struggle to make an impact no matter what division she’s in. Unfortunately for her, she’ll need to get consistent top position to defeat Letson, who has legitimate finishing ability.
Stoliarenko can obviously turn the fight on its head in an instant, but she’ll struggle to impose her game on anyone with a modicum of takedown defense. Letson chews her up on the feet, then ultimately pounds her out after a desperate guard pull.
Prediction: Letson via second-round technical knockout
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Fight Pass ‘Prelims’ (6:30 p.m. ET start time)

155 lbs.: Roosevelt Roberts vs. Darrell Horcher
Roosevelt Roberts (6-0) won his final six amateur bouts before making his professional debut in 2016, quickly racking up five stoppage victories. Following a win in Bellator, “The Predator” joined “Contender Series,” where he choked out Garrett Gross in the second round.
He has knocked out and submitted three foes apiece.
Darrell Horcher (13-3) was on the wrong end of a Khabib Nurmagomedov mauling in his Octagon debut, and a subsequent motorcycle accident didn’t improve his mood. Luckily, he returned to action 14 months later with a split decision over Devil Powell, but struggled with the wrestling of Scott Holtzman en route to a decision loss.
He stands four inches shorter than the 6’2” Roberts.
Horcher has a clear wrestling deficiency, and this will be the third time in four UFC fights that he’s been pitted against someone well-equipped to exploit it. Roberts uses his massive frame to wrap opponents up in the clinch and drag them to the mat, where he unleashes hard punches until they give up their necks. The shorter Horcher will struggle to get his punching offense flowing, and though Roberts can be tagged on the inside, the looming threat of his clinch will put a damper on Horcher’s willingness to unload.
Roberts remains unproven, but this is certainly a doable first step on his way into the Lightweight ranks. Persistent takedowns, top control, and persistent choke attempts earn him victory in his debut.
Prediction: Roberts via second-round submission
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170 lbs.: Tim Means vs. Ricky Rainey
Tim Means (27-10-1) started his second UFC stint 6-2 before hitting his current 1-3 (1 NC) stretch. His last two defeats saw him lose a competitive split decision to Belal Muhammad and a horrific split decision to Sergio Moraes, whom “The Dirty Bird” had clearly dominated on the feet.
Eighteen of his 22 stoppage victories have come by form of knockout.
Ricky Rainey (13-5) joined UFC on the heels of a strong Bellator run, replacing Abdul Razzak Alhassan against Muslim Salikhov on short notice. Rainey used his length well against the “King of Kung Fu,” only to fall victim to the latter’s power punching late in the second round.
“The Sniper” is one inch shorter than Means, but will have a four-inch reach advantage.
Even with his recent struggles, Means remains one of the Welterweight division’s more potent strikers. He can be patient to a fault, though, resulting in several of his fights being much closer than they should be. Luckily, Rainey has his own issues with passivity and, unlike Means, has been stopped with strikes three times.
At the end of the day, Means can stand up to Rainey’s best shots, while the inverse doesn’t hold. Rainey racks up some early points with his reach advantage before getting clipped and finished.
Prediction: Means via first-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Raoni Barcelos vs. Chris Gutierrez
After nearly two years away, Raoni Barcelos (12-1) finally made his Octagon debut in July, taking on the ever-tough Kurt Holobaugh. The two wound up putting on the “Fight of the Night,” which came to a dramatic end in the third round when Barcelos put away Holobaugh with nasty uppercuts.
He has knocked out seven pro foes and submitted one other.
Chris Gutierrez (12-2-1) upset PFL standout Timur Valiev back in 2016, only to lose the rematch and drop a decision to UFC vet Jerrod Sanders soon after. He has since won three straight, making the most of his first LFA main event with a submission of black belt Ray Rodriguez.
He will have two inches of height and reach on the Brazilian.
At 27 years old, Gutierrez has the look of a future contender at Bantamweight. He boasts quality long-range striking, sneaky grappling, and some of the nastiest leg kicks I’ve seen in a while. It’s a shame that he has to debut against Barcelos.
The Brazilian is a lethal mix of top-notch wrestling and slick counter-punching, and considering he’s manhandled and knocked out Featherweights with ease, he’s going to be one dangerous Bantamweight. Gutierrez is patient and effective enough with his kicks to hypothetically potshot his way to victory, but the Valiev fights showed that his habit of not setting up his kicks opens him up to takedowns. Barcelos leans on his ground game more than usual, keeping Gutierrez from getting comfortable at range with regular takedowns.
Prediction: Barcelos via unanimous decisions
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TUF 28 Finale features fresh names, plenty of finishers, and contender implications in the main event. Sounds like a quality Friday night to me — see you then, Maniacs!
Remember, too, that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire TUF 28 Finale fight card, starting with the Fight Pass “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on FOX Sports 1).
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 167-76-1

**JIBBBY** · 11-30-18, 12:16 PM

UFC FOX Sports 1 ‘Prelims’ (8 p.m. ET start time)

170 lbs.: Alexey Kunchenko vs. Yushin Okami
Russia’s Alexey Kunchenko (19-0) successfully defended his M-1 Welterweight title four times before making the jump to UFC in September, taking on Thiago Alves in Moscow. Despite a strong effort from the former title challenger, “Wolverine” took home a unanimous decision, snapping a two-fight knockout streak in the process.
He has knocked out 13 opponents as a professional.
Yushin Okami (35-11) returned to the Octagon after four years away in Sept. 2017, moving up in weight to face Ovince Saint Preux on short notice. Though he succumbed to “OSP’s” signature Von Flue choke, “Thunder” successfully returned to Welterweight in April with a decision over Dhiego Lima.
He is four inches taller than the 5’10” Kunchenko.
I’ve been an Okami faithful for many years now, but there’s a lot of mileage on those tires. “Thunder’s” wrestling and southpaw jab have lost their potency and he’s more fragile than ever. Even if this wasn’t a nightmarish style match up, I’d be worried about him.
Unfortunately, it’s a nightmarish style match up.
Kunchenko is a close-quarters bruiser whose punching power far exceeds Okami’s ability to withstand it. Okami’s only area of superiority is his top game, but he’ll need to engage Kunchenko on the inside to do it, which will end extremely poorly. Kunchenko blasts him out midway through the first.
Prediction: Kunchenko via first-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. Ben Nguyen
A 5-1 run at Flyweight earned Wilson Reis (22-9) a crack at Demetrious Johnson, who handed the Brazilian the first submission loss of his career. He went on to fall to Henry Cejudo’s punches, then lost a competitive decision to John Moraga in April.
He is one inch shorter than Ben Nguyen (17-7), though their reaches are identical.
“Ben 10” rebounded from his loss to Louis Smolka with wins over Geane Herrera and Tim Elliott, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He couldn’t do the same to Jussier Formiga, who clipped him with a spinning back fist and finished him off with a rear-naked choke.
Eight of his 13 wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Nguyen’s issues with Formiga — a stud grappler with sneakily good striking — paint a grim picture of his chances against Reis, another stud grappler with sneakily good striking. That said, Reis struggled to implement his grappling against Moraga, a notoriously poor defensive wrestler, and his habit of getting dropped once a fight bodes ill against one of the division’s hardest punchers.
Moraga overcame Reis with aggression, speed and power, all of which Nguyen has in spades. Reis just doesn’t have the durability to bully his way through Nguyen’s power shots to bring his jiu-jitsu to bear. Reis hits the deck early, as he usually does, but Nguyen won’t let him back up.
Prediction: Nguyen via first-round technical knockout

170 lbs.: Keita Nakamura vs. Salim Touahri
It took him seven years, but Keita Nakamura (33-9-2) made his Octagon return in 2015 after an unsuccessful first run, submitting Li Jingliang to earn “Fight of the Night.” He has since alternated losses and wins, most recently dropping a decision to Prelim headliner Tony Martin in Atlantic City.
He will have one inch of height and reach on Poland’s Salim Touahri (10-2).
Touahri rode a five-fight win streak, which included four knockouts, into his short-notice UFC debut against TUF: “Brazil” veteran Warlley Alves. “Grizzly” struggled to get his offense going against the Brazilian, ultimately losing a unanimous decision.
This will be his first fight in more than one year, as injury scrapped a planned May bout with Brad Scott.
Nakamura is maddeningly inconsistent, but his grappling is no joke. Aside from his back-and-forth battle with Elizeu Zaleski, which could have gone his way, his issues have come against big, physical grapplers. Against Touahri, a striker without the firepower to crack Nakamura’s jaw, “K-Taro” should have considerably more success.
Of course, this is moot if Nakamura just decides to trade on the feet without bringing his grappling prowess to bear. Unwise though it may be, I’ll say he takes the obvious route, dragging Touahri to the mat and ultimately locking up his favored rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Nakamura via second-round submission

135 lbs.: Kai Kara-France vs. Elias Garcia
Kai Kara-France (17-7) — ranked No. 9 on TUF 24 — crushed Terrence Mitchell via 30-second knockout in the opening episode before losing to top-seeded Alexandre Pantoja in the quarterfinals. Though he lost a decision to Tatsumitsu Wada in his first post-TUF appearance, he went on to win five straight and earn a crack at the Octagon proper.
He has scored seven professional knockouts, including five in a row at one point.
Roufusport’s Elias Garcia (6-1) returned from 2.5 years away in 2017 to rattle off three more victories, among them a knockout of TUF veteran Adam Antolin. He made his Octagon debut four months later against Mark De La Rosa, who choked him out in Boise.
He replaces the injured Ashkan Mokhtarian on short notice.
Kara-France had a gimme fight against Mokhtarian, who isn’t anywhere near UFC-caliber, but he should still find success against Garcia. The latter has yet to develop the strong wrestling he needs to implement his excellent top game, and Kara-France has plenty of experience dealing with top-notch grapplers.
That just leaves the striking, where Kara-France’s power and experience far outstrip Garcia’s. Garcia is just too green at this point outside his area of expertise, which Kara-France won’t allow him to implement. Chalk one up for New Zealand as “Don’t Blink” puts away Garcia with an early right hand.
Prediction: Kara-France via first-round technical knockout

UFC Fight Pass ‘Prelims’ (7 p.m. ET start time)

155 lbs.: Mizuto Hirota vs. Christos Giagos
Mizuto Hirota (18-9-2) reached The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Japan” Finale, surviving a rough start to fight Teruto Ishihara to a split draw. He has since lost consecutive decisions to Alexander Volkanovski and Ross Pearson, returning to Lightweight for the first time in five years against the latter.
“Pugnus” is three inches shorter and will give up 4.5 inches of reach to Christos Giagos (15-7).
“The Spartan” went 1-2 in his initial Octagon run, then suffered a knockout loss to Josh Emmett upon his return to the regional circuit. He went on to win four of his next five bouts, heralding a return to UFC, but tapped to a Charles Oliveira rear-naked choke in September.
He has knocked out seven professional opponents and submitted another three.
This will boil down to the scrambling and dynamic offense of Giagos against the boxing and clinchwork of Hirota. Giagos has the fancier striking, but a history of submission losses, while Hirota is an iron-tough boxer and takedown artist who’s consistently fallen short against top competition.
Not easy to get a bead on the outcome.
Hirota’s durability may be what decides this, as Giagos constantly has to worry about overcommitting to blows that won’t put away “Pugnus.” This could go either way, but the sentimental part of me says Hirota finally gets a break, eking out a split decision with good punching and top control.
Prediction: Hirota via split decision

155 lbs.: Damir Ismagulov vs. Alex Gorgees
Damir Ismagulov (16-2) — the first Kazakh to enter the Octagon — rides an 11-fight win streak into his Saturday debut. The run saw him knockout Maxim Divnich for the M-1 Lightweight title in 2017 and successfully defend it three times.
He is four inches shorter than the 6’2” Alex Gorgees (7-0).
Representing Australian Top Team, Gorgees went 4-1 as an amateur before joining the pros in 2016. He’s since racked up three (T)KO victories and two submissions, avenging his sole amateur loss along the way. He replaces Joe Duffy on a week’s notice.
Gorgees has the stopping power to back up his arrogant style, but like the Mokhtarian brothers, who run his gym, his record is built on garbage. He’s fought just two opponents with winning records, both of whom were in the midst of slumps. Not so Ismagulov, who’s faced a constant stream of solid competition on the Russian scene.
Like I said, though, Gorgees can hit, and he’ll have the edge in length. Even with that, Ismagulov is just a step too far, and this fight shouldn’t last long once the Kazakh drags Gorgees to the mat and starts punching.
Prediction: Ismagulov via second-round technical knockout

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 12:22 PM

This writer is smoking something.....calling a first round KO of reis lol..fuckkkkk outta here lol....

125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. Ben Nguyen

A 5-1 run at Flyweight earned Wilson Reis (22-9) a crack at Demetrious Johnson, who handed the Brazilian the first submission loss of his career. He went on to fall to Henry Cejudo’s punches, then lost a competitive decision to John Moraga in April.
He is one inch shorter than Ben Nguyen (17-7), though their reaches are identical.
“Ben 10” rebounded from his loss to Louis Smolka with wins over Geane Herrera and Tim Elliott, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He couldn’t do the same to Jussier Formiga, who clipped him with a spinning back fist and finished him off with a rear-naked choke.
Eight of his 13 wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Nguyen’s issues with Formiga — a stud grappler with sneakily good striking — paint a grim picture of his chances against Reis, another stud grappler with sneakily good striking. That said, Reis struggled to implement his grappling against Moraga, a notoriously poor defensive wrestler, and his habit of getting dropped once a fight bodes ill against one of the division’s hardest punchers.
Moraga overcame Reis with aggression, speed and power, all of which Nguyen has in spades. Reis just doesn’t have the durability to bully his way through Nguyen’s power shots to bring his jiu-jitsu to bear. Reis hits the deck early, as he usually does, but Nguyen won’t let him back up.

Prediction: Nguyen via first-round technical knockout

**JIBBBY** · 11-30-18, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

This writer is smoking something.....calling a first round KO of reis lol..fuckkkkk outta here lol....

125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. Ben Nguyen

A 5-1 run at Flyweight earned Wilson Reis (22-9) a crack at Demetrious Johnson, who handed the Brazilian the first submission loss of his career. He went on to fall to Henry Cejudo’s punches, then lost a competitive decision to John Moraga in April.
He is one inch shorter than Ben Nguyen (17-7), though their reaches are identical.
“Ben 10” rebounded from his loss to Louis Smolka with wins over Geane Herrera and Tim Elliott, the latter of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He couldn’t do the same to Jussier Formiga, who clipped him with a spinning back fist and finished him off with a rear-naked choke.
Eight of his 13 wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Nguyen’s issues with Formiga — a stud grappler with sneakily good striking — paint a grim picture of his chances against Reis, another stud grappler with sneakily good striking. That said, Reis struggled to implement his grappling against Moraga, a notoriously poor defensive wrestler, and his habit of getting dropped once a fight bodes ill against one of the division’s hardest punchers.
Moraga overcame Reis with aggression, speed and power, all of which Nguyen has in spades. Reis just doesn’t have the durability to bully his way through Nguyen’s power shots to bring his jiu-jitsu to bear. Reis hits the deck early, as he usually does, but Nguyen won’t let him back up.

Prediction: Nguyen via first-round technical knockout

Agreed.. Not a very sharp write up prediction. It happens..

**WolfTicketDealer** · 11-30-18, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

This writer is smoking something.....calling a first round KO of reis lol..fuckkkkk outta here lol....

I don't think it's that unreasonable. Nguyen has a big advantage on the feet and Reis is chinny. I think Nguyen KO/TKO at +375 has good value.

**PaperTrail07** · 11-30-18, 01:09 PM

guy called it round 1 like he has a crystal ball....im just saying for a WRITER that is actually trying to predict it, I know you take your shots but jesus.....just think its way off and readers and being highly misled LOL......you know who else owned the speed advantage over him....MM lol...went all 3 rounds....

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

[/LEFT]
[/B][/B][/B]I don't think it's that unreasonable. Nguyen has a big advantage on the feet and Reis is chinny. I think Nguyen KO/TKO at +375 has good value.

**Thrilla** · 11-30-18, 01:44 PM

Interesting how sometimes those MMA-Mania write-ups JIBBBY posts mentions the religion of a fighter when it's a muslim. They never say the 'Christian' or 'Jew' fighter. But when it comes to Islam they feel the need to add the 'Muslim" fighter in the write-up.

Must be write-ups from Trump-tards, has to be...which is probably why JIBBBY likes them so much.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

you see this card the same as me

I think we are going to kill it....

Let’s get it bro

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

guy called it round 1 like he has a crystal ball....im just saying for a WRITER that is actually trying to predict it, I know you take your shots but jesus.....just think its way off and readers and being highly misled LOL......you know who else owned the speed advantage over him....MM lol...went all 3 rounds....

All but one of Nguyen’s UFC wins are in R1 with most by KO/TKO

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-30-18, 01:48 PM

Also the fight with MM was definitely five rounds, not three