UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington (May 12, 2018)

[SmellMyFinger]

Smug? My new avatar already trolling people.



I didn't read your post thoroughly. Was in a rush. You do!...know how it works... My bad if I came over too personal.

It's just that there has been posters in the past here that think that these huge favourites are only valuable in parlays. They tell themselfs hey this is a bad number but if I parlay it with multiple fights it becomes a better number. Basically beginners stuff.

My post was to give advise to the general public, nothing personal to you. As I felt the need to help. No smug here. Although I do consider myself the greatest sportsbettor in history.

all good man, no harm done, maybe i took a bit of offence as a poker player for over 12 years, it would be a bit weird for me not to understand the idea of what the value of a line is ) anyway back to the fights : would like to hear some thoughts on the over 2.5 in the main event it,s at +115 and i think it's definitely worth a play

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania prelims -



185 lbs.: Cezar Ferreira vs. Karl Roberson

A dominant run on the inaugural TUF: “Brazil” series and three straight UFC victories gave way to a 1-3 stretch that saw Cezar Ferreira (12-6) suffer three first-round knockout losses. He’s since found new life, winning four of his last five and earning “Performance of the Night” for his upset submission of Jack Hermansson.
“Mutante” will have four inches of reach on Karl Roberson (6-0).
It took Roberson just 15 seconds to wipe out the favored Ryan Spann on Week 3 of Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” earning a contract in the process. He went on to extend his first-round stoppage streak to five with a submission of Darren Stewart in his Octagon debut.
Though an experienced kickboxer who has fought the likes of Jerome Le Banner, half his wins have come by submission.
Genuine props to Ferreira for realizing that he doesn’t have the durability to slug it out and adjusting his style accordingly. Not enough fighters have the self-awareness to properly assess their faults and make the necessary alterations.
Not sure it’ll be enough to save him from Roberson, though. The American is the sharper striker and has the wrestling chops to force prolonged stand up exchanges. In addition, he’s proven he can do serious damage in the clinch, making keeping him on the fence a dicey proposition. Ferreira could very well grind his way to victory, but the more likely outcome is Roberson catching him inside and pounding away from the finish.
Prediction: Roberson via first-round technical knockout

265 lbs.: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Junior Albini

More than 20 years into his MMA career, Aleksei Oleinik (55-11-1) continues to soldier on, going 4-2 in the UFC despite his age. After consecutive finishes of Viktor Pesta and Travis Browne — the former of which saw him score the first Ezekiel choke in UFC history — Oleinik faced the rising Curtis Blaydes and was forced to bow out midway through the second round.
He has a staggering 40 submission victories.
Junior Albini (14-3) made an immediate impression in UFC by defying more than +200 odds to knockout Timothy Johnson in his debut, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. This installed him as a massive favorite against Andrei Arlovski, but a tepid performance in defeat led to a very different impression, one not helped by his diaper-like shorts.
“Baby” has knocked out and submitted four opponents apiece.
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Oleinik faces a much bigger, much younger, much more powerful fighter. He has a disturbing tendency to win these sort of match ups anyway, but after that tepid performance against Blaydes, it’s hard to have any faith in him. He just has so much wear and so little speed that it’s hard to pick him against an athletic Heavyweight unless said Heavyweight has been thoroughly ruined by Edmond Tarverdyan.
Though Albini proved against Arlovski that he can throw away a perfectly winnable fight, I expect him to fight with extra urgency here. He shuts down Oleinik’s wrestling and ultimately puts him away once he starts to fade.
Prediction: Albini via second-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Davi Ramos vs. Nick Hein

Davi Ramos (7-2) — who took home gold at ADCC 2015 with a beautiful jumping armbar — came up just short in his short-notice UFC debut against fellow grappling ace Sergio Moraes, which saw the two black belts spend most of three rounds trading on the feet. Returning to Lightweight, he outclassed TUF veteran Chris Gruetzemacher on the mat on his way to a third-round choke finish.
He has submitted five professional foes overall.
“Sergeant” Nick Hein (14-2-1) split his first two UFC bouts, battering Drew Dober before dropping a decision to James Vick in Austin. Three straight victories set up Hein to welcome Zabit Magomedsharipov to UFC, but injury scrapped that fight and has kept Hein out of action since Sept. 2016.
He will give up two inches of height and four inches of reach to Ramos.
I’m legitimately conflicted here. Ramos’ striking and wrestling haven’t caught up to his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, meaning this will probably be a stand up affair that favors Hein despite the German’s stubby arms. On the other hand, Hein is 34 and hasn’t fought in nearly two years.
The stylistic clash still favors Hein enough for me to pick him. His 90 percent takedown defense and greater UFC experience allow him to shut down Ramos’ takedowns and steadily take control of the striking.
Prediction: Hein via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Sean Strickland

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (18-5) debuted in 2015 against then-unbeaten Nicolas Dalby and gave the Cage Warriors champ all he could handle en route to a split decision defeat. Undaunted, “Capoeira” enters the cage on a four-fight win streak that includes three “Fight of the Night” bonuses.
Twelve of his 18 knockout wins have come in the first round.
Sean Strickland (19-2) rebounded from his first-ever loss at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio to win three straight, only for Kamaru Usman to halt his rise in brutal fashion. “Tarzan” still wound up a nearly three-to-one favorite against Court McGee, whom he defeated in Norfolk in Nov. 2017.
At 6’1,” he stands two inches taller than Zaleski and has three inches of reach on him.
This is one of the most dramatic discrepancies in entertainment/talent ratio that I’ve seen in awhile. Zaleski’s boxing is rough and his wrestling nonexistent, but he is enormously game, tough and fun to watch. Strickland, meanwhile, is massive for the weight and solid all around, but religiously takes the path of least resistance.
Sadly, I think boring practicality wins the day.
The standout stat is Zaleski’s woeful 40 percent takedown defense. He’s a deceptively good scrambler, which got him out of danger against Keita Nakamura and allowed him to survive against Omari Akhmedov long enough to put him away late, but Strickland isn’t going to take any chances once he gets on top. Further, “Tarzan” survived hellacious bombs from both Ponzinibbio and Usman, so a knockout is unlikely. Strickland lays-and-prays his way to a decision victory.
Prediction: Strickland via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Warlley Alves vs. Sultan Aliev

Warlley Alves (11-2) turned heads in his rampage through TUF: “Brazil” 3 and looked poised to make good on his potential with four consecutive UFC victories. Rough losses to Bryan Barberena and Kamaru Usman slowed his roll, though he did defeat Polish striker Salim Touahri last time out.
His last four submission wins, including his 86-second defeat of Colby Covington, have come by guillotine.
A controversial split decision loss to Doug Marshall led to Sultan Aliev (14-2) leaving Bellator and knocking out four straight opponents on his way to UFC. Kenny Robertson welcomed him to the Octagon with a vicious knockout, after which Aliev spent almost two years on the sidelines before edging Bojan Velickovic in Dec. 2017.
Ten of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins have come by knockout.
Alves hasn’t panned out as I’d hoped, but much like Bantamweight equivalent Pedro Munhoz, his athleticism, power and murderous guillotine make him a dangerous out for anyone in the division. He’s got the speed edge here, and his rough boxing isn’t a major issue considering Aliev’s own lack of striking craft.
The key will be how Alves responds to Aliev’s takedowns as the Brazilian’s two UFC losses came against strong wrestlers. As Aliev doesn’t do a great job of setting up his shots, though, I expect Alves to catch him in an early guillotine.
Prediction: Alves via first-round submission

185 lbs.: Thales Leites vs. Jack Hermansson

Following rough losses to Anderson Silva, Alessio Sakara and Matt Horwich, Thales Leites (27-8) fought his way back to UFC and immediately put together a five-fight win streak. He’s since struggled to maintain that consistency, however, losing four of his last six bouts.
Fifteen of his 19 stoppage wins have come by submission, eight of them arm-triangles.
Jack Hermansson (16-5) went from European standout to UFC contender with wins in three of his first four Octagon bouts, among them ground-and-pound beatdowns of Alex Nicholson and Brad Scott. Thiago Santos’ power proved too much for “The Joker” to handle, as “Marreta” wiped him out in the waning seconds of the first round.
Just two of his last 11 fights have gone the distance.
It’s difficult to get a bead on Leites’ mental fortitude in the cage. Sometimes he’ll come out swinging, as he did to break down Francis Carmont and bust up Michael Bisping in defeat, and sometimes he’ll give up and start fruitlessly pulling guard as he did against Gegard Mousasi and Krzysztof Jotko. He has to be willing to fight through adversity here, as Hermansson’s wrestling and footwork make him an extremely tough target for both strikes and takedowns. Stylistically, Leites might just be too plodding to catch “The Joker” and his inconsistent wrestling mean his vaunted jiu-jitsu won’t be a factor. So long as Hermansson’s confidence wasn’t broken by the Santos debacle, he potshots his way to victory.
Prediction: Hermansson via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Alberto Mina vs. Ramazan Emeev

The UFC appearances for Alberto Mina (13-0) have been sparse, but entertaining. Fighting once each in 2014, 2015 and 2016, the other “Soldier of God” scored brutal knockouts of Shinsho Anzai and Mike Pyle, sandwiching a razor-thin decision over Yoshihiro Akiyama in Seoul.
He has knocked out and submitted six opponents apiece.
Ramazan Emeev (16-3) entered UFC with wins in 12 of his previous 13 fights, falling only to Vyacheslav Vasilevsky in a loss he avenged seven months later. “Gorets” was originally set to fight Trevor Smith in Gdansk, but instead faced and defeated Sam Alvey in a snoozer.
This will be his Welterweight debut.
Mina is athletic, well-rounded and plenty entertaining, but he’s also 36 years old and painfully inactive. Worse, he slowed down badly when forced to go past two rounds, an issue I don’t see him fixing at this stage in his career.
Emeev’s grinding style seems well-suited to sapping his energy.
I expect “Gorets” to find a lot more success muscling around Welterweight competition. It may be a bit hairy in the early going, but expect Emeev to survive an early blitz to break Mina’s will against the cage and ultimately run away with it on the mat.
Prediction Emeev by unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Markus Perez vs. James Bochnovic

Markus Perez (9-1) punched his ticket to the big show with an upset submission of Ian Heinisch to win the LFA Middleweight title, having beaten UFC vets Paulo Thiago and Ildemar Alcantara in previous bouts. Three months later, “Maluko” stepped up on short notice to face Eryk Anders in Fresno, ultimately losing a wide decision.
His wins are split evenly between knockouts, submissions and decisions.
James Bochnovic (8-2) — a training partner of Ben Rothwell — fell in his professional debut before rattling off eight consecutive first-round finishes, seven of them by submission. This set up an Octagon debut opposite Trevin Giles, who thoroughly overpowered Bochnovic before knocking him cold with ground-and-pound.
He stands three inches taller than Perez at 6’3.”
Two guys coming off of losses to athletic up-and-comers. It’s as good a match up theme as any, I suppose.
Against Giles, Bochnovic looked like a prototypical submission specialist with nowhere near the wrestling to consistently apply those skills, while Perez seemed like he was improvising against Anders. Neither has solid wrestling or a complete striking game, so anything could happen here. I favor Perez, though. He’s more proven, more dangerous on the feet, and is capable of holding his own on the mat. He outstrikes and outlasts Bochnovic for a decision.
Prediction: Perez via unanimous decision

[PaperTrail07]

That write up is a whiff LOL....Cezar Ferreira will win....and def not lose in the 1st....

[Hugo de Naranja]

That write up is a whiff LOL....Cezar Ferreira will win....and def not lose in the 1st....

I've got Roberson by R1 KO. Let's get some betpoints cooking Papes.

[Sato]

Only leans: Belfort ML and TKO/KO prop, Kelvin ML and TKO/KO prop.

The ML's of the dyke world championship is unbettable. The Nunes TKO/KO prop looks promising (+160)

[Teem]

That write up is a whiff LOL....Cezar Ferreira will win....and def not lose in the 1st....

Idk, Ferreira's jaw is glass. I'm seeing so many people taking Roberson by KO in R1.

[Shagdogy]

There is such a thing as a "standing guillotine" or a guillotine via pulling guard. It doesn't have to be locked in off a takedown attempt. Look at how Brian Ortega finished Cub Swanson.

Anyways if some of you are this cocky about it. I had better not see any sub hedges on Kelleher.


TJ Dillashaw had a lot of success wrestling/grappling Lineker. There's always a small chance Kelleher called out Linker hoping to expose the same flaws that TJ did.

1. Not cocky. I don’t come at people that way on here. And no I generally don’t hedge.

2. I know standing guillotines and other setups. My point was that from my tape study and research, I don’t believe Kelleher sets his guillotine up that way. It’s not something he often looks for, if ever, and something I don’t think is very plausible given the builds of the two guys.

[Shagdogy]

3. I do agree he MIGHT look to take JL down like TJ did, but TJ is on another level so just because he was able to do it doesn’t be mean Boom will be able to. He might, but I’m more unsure about that aspect.

[Sanity Check]

Mackenzie Dern misses weight by 7 pounds.

***Forfeits 30% of her purse.

[Hugo de Naranja]

That’s a pretty bad weight miss. When was the last time a fighter who missed weight lost a fight. Seems like it’s been awhile.

[Sanity Check]

3. I do agree he MIGHT look to take JL down like TJ did, but TJ is on another level so just because he was able to do it doesn’t be mean Boom will be able to. He might, but I’m more unsure about that aspect.

Watch 0:39:

Ah, what's that. Is Kelleher showing Lineker a shot?

Most are expecting a standup brawl.

Kelleher is thinking about the wrestling. He's thinking about it which is more credit than most are giving him.

[PaperTrail07]

What should we make the line? Was +125 before but Ill take +110 as the line movd for some weird reason....my 200 vs your 220? Let me know before fights

I've got Roberson by R1 KO. Let's get some betpoints cooking Papes.

[Kermit]

Mackenzie Dern misses weight by 7 pounds.



***Forfeits 30% of her purse.

They need to cut that fat-ass. She'll probably be 150 tomorrow night.

[PaperTrail07]

coaches fired too..7 pounds LOL my god....

They need to cut that fat-ass. She'll probably be 150 tomorrow night.

[JIBBBY]

Mackenzie Dern misses weight by 7 pounds.

***Forfeits 30% of her purse.

That's not even close, what was she thinking? Fat chick waiting to bust out.. ..

[PaperTrail07]

Cooper called her out and I agree.....disgrace to professionals that cut and show up ready.....hope dern loses...

[Kermit]

If Dern would have cut that fake Brazilian accent, she probably would have made weight.

[jtoler]

i like nunes so hope she wins

[jtoler]

If Dern would have cut that fake Brazilian accent, she probably would have made weight.

lol thats quite the evolution

[Kermit]

lol thats quite the evolution

I know. She must have a few screws loose.

[Kermit]

Colby Covington chimes in.

[Kermit]

So will Nunes/Pennington be the first openly gay fight in UFC history?

[Shagdogy]

Watch 0:39:

Ah, what's that. Is Kelleher showing Lineker a shot?

Most are expecting a standup brawl.

Kelleher is thinking about the wrestling. He's thinking about it which is more credit than most are giving him.

I'll give you this... I haven't looked at those two guys side by side before that video and this is the first time I ever felt like Kelleher looked big. He may look to land consistent TDs. It's probably a good game plan for him. If he goes offensive with the wrestling, I still don't believe he will see many opportunities for his guillotine. I like the guy. I won't have any problem if he proves me wrong. But for me, the biggest factor in this fight is the willingness of both men to brawl, and Lineker holding the better power while Kelleher tends to keep his chin out there.

[JIBBBY]

Dern is not only chubby but seems to be slightly mentally retarded.. How do you lose your American native tongue like that?? That has to be an act. If not she's mental for sure to go along with her laziness to diet properly.

Hope she gets beat down...

[Hugo de Naranja]

What should we make the line? Was +125 before but Ill take +110 as the line movd for some weird reason....my 200 vs your 220? Let me know before fights

We're on. Ferreira is (-105) now but I'm fine giving you (+110). My 220 to your 200.

[turbozed]

3. I do agree he MIGHT look to take JL down like TJ did, but TJ is on another level so just because he was able to do it doesn’t be mean Boom will be able to. He might, but I’m more unsure about that aspect.

Kelleher's one of the better guys at switching quickly from striking to takedown attempts. Lineker does like to plant and throw quite a bit. Most guys either don't want to get near Lineker when he does his wild hooks (some say YOLO and engage and then get KO'd) but I think Kelleher isn't very gunshy. He will stay in range to either get KO'd or land a takedown or at least clinch up.

He will need to land a few per round and be very on point with his striking but I consider him a live dog. He's never been KO'd before but this seems like a dangerous fight for Kelleher if an aggressive Lineker shows up. Kellher doesn't seem to have the power in his hands to stop Lineker coming forward so it'll be a very long night for Kellher if Lineker stuffs takedowns.

[turbozed]

duplicate post sorry

[Thor4140]

I know. She must have a few screws loose.

I said that after her first interview after her first match. I think she had an interperter with her. She may be the first whack job in the UFC.

[Kermit]

I said that after her first interview after her first match. I think she had an interperter with her. She may be the first whack job in the UFC.

I was right there with you. I think that she has some form of mild retardation.

I also think that she wanted the interpreter because she wanted to give her post fight speech(for a very shitty over-hyped win) to try and speak it in Portuguese for some kind of bizarre Brazilian cred.

[Shagdogy]

My book takes Perez/Bochnovic off the board for parlays. Wtf? Perez is a parlay piece.

[jtoler]

kinda find it a little funny that Cooper talks in a matter of fact way about this fight as if its gonna be a breeze, should she be talking like that or is she just trying to put all the pressure on Dern

[HurlSweatPants]

Taking Pennington in the later rounds (3-5) for a small prop bet. If Pennington can survive I think she can take Nunes into deep waters during the later rounds, not sure how Nunes can last through 5.

[PaperTrail07]

Sounds Good....We will do EVEN $$$$$$$ BET LOCKED IN........I honestly have it at +135

Fighting - 24222 C. Ferreira +135 for Game

We're on. Ferreira is (-105) now but I'm fine giving you (+110). My 220 to your 200.

[PaperTrail07]

Kinda wild movement right....+135 to -120.... GL w tonights fights HUGE.....don't forget Bellator is on as well......Have to like Fitch at -165 right....

[PaperTrail07]

Hoping King Mo takes out bader as well....he deserves it.....Mo would have made a fool out of any of those fights except Bader.....