UFC on FOX: Stephens vs. Emmett (February 24, 2018)

[TPowell]

UFC on Fox 28, Orlando, Florida, 24th Feb '18

Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Unit Bet
Jeremy Stephens	Josh Emmett	-130	2.5
Russell Doane	Rani Yahya	+215	0.5

Props and Parlays			Unit Bet
Fight Pick Odds Pr Angela Hill vs Maryna Moroz Over 2.5 rounds -300			3
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Alan Jouban vs Ben Saunders Jouban wins inside distance -115			1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Angela Hill vs Maryna Moroz Hill wins by decision +110			1
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Mike Perry vs Max Griffin Perry wins inside distance -170 Pr Angela Hill vs Maryna Moroz Over 2.5 rounds -355 Parlay Odds: +104			1
Fight Pick Odds Pi Mike Perry vs Max Griffin Perry to win -365 Pi Alan Jouban vs Ben Saunders Jouban to win -270 Pr Marion Reneau vs Sara McMann NOT Reneau wins by decision -430 Parlay Odds: +115			1

---

Unfinished Open Parlays			Unit Bet
Fight Pick Odds Pi Jeremy Kennedy vs Alex Volkanovski Volkanovski to win -175 Pi Mike Perry vs Max Griffin Perry to win -260 Parlay Odds: +118			2

Additional Notes For Buyers

[TPowell]

EDIT: Double post

[Hugo de Naranja]

Calling fighters "quitters" because they didn't defend a choke with the urgency that is to your liking is laughable. Overreactions like this is how people loss money.

It’s not an overreaction if it’s a consistent trend. McMann does not respond well when faced with adversity. I don’t think she is the type of fighter to get a comeback win when things don’t go her way early.

[Shagdogy]

It’s not an overreaction if it’s a consistent trend. McMann does not respond well when faced with adversity. I don’t think she is the type of fighter to get a comeback win when things don’t go her way early.

That said, hard to see her having much early trouble in this fight. I think she lands the TD out of the gate.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbs, have we seen Emmett rocked? I don't recall it. That was only heathen's 2nd TKO in 10 fights so he may not be pure power like he gets credit for.

I may play the over here, but I admit these guys prob won't fight a style for it. They may both be durable enough though.

I see what you're saying.. Heathen does look like a different fighter lately though.. He came and blasted right threw Doo Ho Choi...

To add to what Tpow said, Heathen has won 18 of his 27 wins by KO. Heathen can knock people out and remember this is a 5 rounder... I think that's his most likely pathway to victory anyways. KO or bust.. Certainly no guarantees Jeremy can win a decision against Emmett if it does go to the cards. Most likely Emmett gets it on the cards for being the more active fighter.....

[TPowell]

I see what you're saying.. Heathen does look like a different fighter lately though.. He came and blasted threw Dong Kim...

To add to what Tpow said, Heathen has won 18 of his 27 wins by KO. Heathen can knock people out and remember this is a 5 rounder... I think that's his most likely pathway to victory anyways. KO or bust.. Certainly no guarantees Jeremy can win a decision against Emmett if it does go to the cards. Most likely Emmett gets it on the cards for being the more active fighter.....

Will he still be active late though? I think Stephens has the better cardio of the 2 as well by a long shot. Emmett standing in that goofy Karate style is going to get that leg ate up as well. I think with Stephens you have the more powerful guy, the guy who can take a punch MUCH better, and the guy with the better cardio. The wrestling is something I suppose but Emmett doesn't do much with his TD's and unless your BJJ is top notch, Stephens is hopping right back up (like he did against Edgar).

[TPowell]

Not trying to talk anybody out of plays here but McMann is a little flaky for me to be investing -200+ in. I think if she loses this fight, it is BY FAR by sub. Look back at McMann's career and tell me the fights she would have been beaten if the fight goes the distance. Miesha beat her in a majority decision and I think somebody else beat her by decision once maybe but for the most part, she's winning rounds

[JIBBBY]

Will he still be active late though? I think Stephens has the better cardio of the 2 as well by a long shot. Emmett standing in that goofy Karate style is going to get that leg ate up as well. I think with Stephens you have the more powerful guy, the guy who can take a punch MUCH better, and the guy with the better cardio. The wrestling is something I suppose but Emmett doesn't do much with his TD's and unless your BJJ is top notch, Stephens is hopping right back up (like he did against Edgar).

Emmett goes to decision alot in his 3 round fights and wins them, I don't remember seeing him completely gas out ever..

Stephens won't gas out either but Stephens has a knack for losing decisions more often then winning them as he typically gets out boxed or out pointed because he head hunts mostly. Stephens typically doesn't fight to win rounds on points, he looks to try and finish fights.

My take anyways.. There is a chance Emmett can go for take downs as well and get them...That scores points.. Stephens won't go for take downs and do that..

[TPowell]

20 seconds into his last fight, Prachnio got dropped by a guy with no wins by TKO in 36 fights.... also according to the commentary he's faced a lot of grapplers (he's a black belt in karate).

[Richard Clock]

That said, hard to see her having much early trouble in this fight. I think she lands the TD out of the gate.

I think people are underrating Reneau's BJJ in this matchup. Reneau is skilled and aggressive off her back and Mcmann tends to be content to settle in her opponent's guard. Reneau can do some real damage if she manages to find her way in top position. My intial lean on this matchup was Mcmann but I now think Reneau ML or ITD is in play after watching tape. I took a shot on Reneau by submission at +750.

[TPowell]

Watching the Prachnio/Ataides fight now. This fight goes the distance and Ataides had been finished by strikes in back to back fights before this one. The alarm bells are going off in my head and I've watched 2 minutes of actual film

[TPowell]

I think people are underrating Reneau's BJJ in this matchup. Reneau is skilled and aggressive off her back and Mcmann tends to be content to settle in her opponent's guard. Reneau can do some real damage if she manages to find her way in top position. My intial lean on this matchup was Mcmann but I now think Reneau ML or ITD is in play after watching tape. I took a shot on Reneau by submission at +750.

I wouldn't waste your money on anything else. That has by far the most value IMO. Good call

[TPowell]

Andddd his background is in a form of karate that doesn't allow you to punch/kick the head. For gods sake, is Sam Alvey completely shot?

[TPowell]

One FC is such a shit show. Dumbass ref steps in every 20 seconds to say action and warn guys to be more active. Also, judging fights based off the entire fight instead of round by round.

Back to the fight, anyways the fight was razor tight. Marcin lost the 1st for sure and the 2nd was close but he won the 3rd. The 2nd and 3rd were pretty uneventful. I REALLY like Marcin's scrambling game and getups. He also stays on his toes late in fights so I think his cardio is decent even though he slows down volume wise. He puts EVERYTHING into each shot and he doesn't hide what he's trying to throw very well. My issue with that is if Alvey times that shot and counters.... Marcin Prachnio is hitting the mat and he's probably not getting back up

[Hugo de Naranja]

Alright I have a lot of money locked up in Andrade parlays (probably 3u total which is very high for me).

Here are my assumptions, and maybe you can poke holes in it:

1. Andrade is going to be much, MUCH stronger than Torres. Torres controlled by atomweight Waterson. Andrade was relatively strong even at BANTAMWEIGHT. I don't think Torres can do much in the clinch, against the cage, or undernearth Andrade. Confidence level on this assumption is 90%+.

2. Torres cannot stop Andrade's forward movement. Torres doesn't have the footwork to avoid clinching up. She won't be able to kick at distance for fear of getting taken down. This leaves her punching with short arms meaning she will need to be close to Andrade to get any offense off. Torres' shots aren't powerful enough to deter Andrade even if she is able to land. Andrade's new defense while pressuring is well suited for this matchup. Head movement and draws out a combo before jumping in with strikes now.

Torres' only hope is perfect footwork, landing punches, angling off, and maybe ending combos with a kick. She will need to do this perfectly for 5 minutes for at least 2 out of 3 rounds keeping Andrade at bay. JJ was able to do this to Andrade. However, Torres doesn't have the length, skills or power that JJ does. Andrade has also improved with her feints and head movement. Confidence level in this assumption is 80%+.

I don't think I can be realistically be convinced that assumption #1 is wrong, but #2 might be. Does anyone think Torres has the chops to play an outfighting game against Andrade successfully?

Andrade is my favorite female fighter but I think Torres could point fight her way to a decision here. Andrade is stronger and a much harder hitter but I think Torres is definitely the more technical striker. It remains to be seen if Andrade will go to her wrestling here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You got a deal!!

Sweet

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Emmett knocks StevensStephens out.........

What am I missing here??

Stephens has only been Knocked Out Once in a very long career.

[TPowell]

Alright I'm passing on Alvey ML. This kid is pretty well rounded. He's faced a ton of grapplers lately (exclusively for 3-4 fights now) and he's shown excellent scrambling and getups plus urgency in the clinch to dig for underhooks. He's always on his toes. He does a LOT of good things but he still pushes forward with these wide overhands and telegraphs basically everything he throws. Sam Alvey should be able to counter strike here and land a big shot for the finish. I may not favor him to win this fight anymore but at +480 for the TKO, I believe we have some really solid odds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

That said, hard to see her having much early trouble in this fight. I think she lands the TD out of the gate.

Yeah I definitely think McMann will get TDs. I'm probably picking her to win but have a 2u bet on Reneau ITD (+500)

[firekillex]

i think andrade is going to ragdoll torres to a dominant decision then become champion if rose wins again
best wrestling in that division by far... reminds me of a female khabib with her aggressive wrestling

[Fence]

One important factor that I believe has been left out is Emmett has a higher degree of fast twitch muscles - I believe he will have a big time speed advantage with less wear and tear and a slight technique advantage as well and I also believe the TAM boys will have this guy ready more so than Stephens' training partners. Of course we know that they both possess comparable wrestling abilities which will likely cancel each other out until the later rounds. I am not convinced that wins over Doo Ho Choi and Melendez are significant; and although (Emmett) knocking Lamas out in devastating fashion was impressive he doesn't have the top level competition yet that Stephens has. But he trains and game-plans with absolute monsters (several champoins) as previously mentioned - and from what I understand and have researched TAM holds Emmett's abilities in very high regard. Iron sharpens iron indeed.

And I hate to say it but Stephens likes to lose... ...a lot. We don't know Emmett as a loser.

Emmett with the points is absolutely the play to make here fellows - just my two cents. (+140)

[Hugo de Naranja]

One FC is such a shit show. Dumbass ref steps in every 20 seconds to say action and warn guys to be more active. Also, judging fights based off the entire fight instead of round by round.

Back to the fight, anyways the fight was razor tight. Marcin lost the 1st for sure and the 2nd was close but he won the 3rd. The 2nd and 3rd were pretty uneventful. I REALLY like Marcin's scrambling game and getups. He also stays on his toes late in fights so I think his cardio is decent even though he slows down volume wise. He puts EVERYTHING into each shot and he doesn't hide what he's trying to throw very well. My issue with that is if Alvey times that shot and counters.... Marcin Prachnio is hitting the mat and he's probably not getting back up

What do you mean by hitting the mat? Like takedowns?

[TPowell]

What do you mean by hitting the mat? Like takedowns?

No, like knockdown.

[Hugo de Naranja]

No, like knockdown.

Oh okay. Yeah I agree there's some value on Alvey KO/TKO at (+480). I've got 1u on it and that will probably end up as my only action on the fight.

[TPowell]

Oh okay. Yeah I agree there's some value on Alvey KO/TKO at (+480). I've got 1u on it and that will probably end up as my only action on the fight.

I'm going back and forth. Alvey COULD win by decision I suppose but it can't be worth $2.50 like the line indicates. If he lands enough to win a decision here, he has brutalized Prachnio and I don't see how this guy can take it without getting finished. Think I'll go a half unit or so on JUST it as well

[TPowell]

I keep coming back to Doane being at Team Oyama now with guys like Joe Soto (who fought Yahya literally less than a year ago) that can give him the exact style to combat this guy. Training in Hawaii isn't a good thing IMO and I think you'll see the technique improvements from Doane. Sure, he could get subbed as soon as this fight hits the ground but Yahya's takedowns aren't very good and Doane throws some real heat on the feet

[turbozed]

Threw a half on Doane at +215 after tape study. Not super excited but it's striker vs bjj whiz so there is some value.

Welcome to the Doane war wagon. Can I interest you in some Sam Alvey at deeply discounted prices?

[TPowell]

Welcome to the Doane war wagon. Can I interest you in some Sam Alvey at deeply discounted prices?

Have to pass I think. I put a half unit on him by TKO though at +480. That is a big sized prop play for me at that price.

[turbozed]

I'm going back and forth. Alvey COULD win by decision I suppose but it can't be worth $2.50 like the line indicates. If he lands enough to win a decision here, he has brutalized Prachnio and I don't see how this guy can take it without getting finished. Think I'll go a half unit or so on JUST it as well

I guess taking the TKO line is good for limiting exposure to such a flake like Alvey, but I'm thinking a decision is very likely as well. Prachnio has only been finished once in his career (in round 3, which probably means 'i'm tired and getting grounded and pounded'). Alvey doesn't really push the pace and is fine with cruising like in his last few decision wins.

[turbozed]

Andrade is my favorite female fighter but I think Torres could point fight her way to a decision here. Andrade is stronger and a much harder hitter but I think Torres is definitely the more technical striker. It remains to be seen if Andrade will go to her wrestling here.

Do you think the odds are too wide or just about right? I know there's a non zero chance of Torres outfighting, but how likely do you think?

[TPowell]

So I'm watching Manny Bermudez (the 3 fights I can find tape on which are Casimir, R Almeida, and Anderson). He essentially snatches chokes from nowhere on these guys but Casimir and Anderson are COMPLETE bums even at the lower level. Rodrigo Almeida is a decent fighter for that level I guess but never in a million years does this guy get to an upper tier org. He fought once at WSOP and was -270 against a guy that was 10-8 in the shitty NEF and he got BEAT. The other thing to note is that he has only fought one DECENT opponent and that was a FW in Saul Almeida. It was a split decision that I can't find tape of but it wasn't a landslide either way according to Cody Saftic who I'm sure saw the fight somehow. He's fought absolute regional cans at BW which makes me wonder. Does he really have the speed and such to deal with higher level BW's? Maybe, maybe not. Last point on him is that he fights a gym that has produced 1 decent fighter who hasn't been active in 5 years. This kid isn't getting that top notch training that he'll need to make this monster move from shitty org like Cage Titans against bums to the big show in the UFC.

[TPowell]

I guess taking the TKO line is good for limiting exposure to such a flake like Alvey, but I'm thinking a decision is very likely as well. Prachnio has only been finished once in his career (in round 3, which probably means 'i'm tired and getting grounded and pounded'). Alvey doesn't really push the pace and is fine with cruising like in his last few decision wins.

In his last fight, he got dropped immediately (20 seconds in) against a BJJ guy who hasn't finished anywhere ever by TKO in 30+ fights. I think his chin is poor and that is why he wants to counter strike so much. He's aggressive yes but its mostly when guys are throwing and he gets to counter strike.

[turbozed]

Hop in TPow. I went win 1u on Doane, Shelton, Morales, Alvey, Moroz. The all dog card. I admit I got some pretty awful lines but still some value. Didn't risk much.

Good luck finding any useful tape of Manny Bermudez. Let us know what you find tonight.

I'm hoping dogs bark too. On Doane, Alvey, Morales, Moroz too. Also on Kelleher and a little on Griffin. That's 6 dogs and might be a record for me.

[TPowell]

I'm hoping dogs bark too. On Doane, Alvey, Morales, Moroz too. Also on Kelleher and a little on Griffin. That's 6 dogs and might be a record for me.

I just don't see any path for Griffin. He's not going to finish Perry and winning a decision seems very unlikely. I don't think Griffin is this great technical striker like most think and I think Perry's tech is very underrated. Sure, it isn't great but this guy isn't just hurling overhands at you.

[TPowell]

I'm on Doane and Morales for a unit and I have a half unit on Alvey by TKO. I don't really like Moroz either. Thoughts on Shelton? Last thing I'm going to look at before I call it a night