UFC on FOX: Stephens vs. Emmett (February 24, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

It's a Fight Pass Prelim so folks with 5D can't bet it live.

Either way, I don't think it's obvious that Yahya wins the 1st round unless he has made a quantum leap in takedown ability.

You know where I'm at on this one. I think the value is with Doane. He's fought some very good competition in the UFC, including late notice vs Bektic, so it's hard to fault him too much for his losses. Yes, he has shown some moments of poor fight IQ, but he is a skilled fighter nonetheless.

I believe Yahya desperately needs the cage to be successful with TDs and Doane could have the length and footwork to keep him at bay. If he's successful early and forces Yahya to chase, then I think Yahya gets tired quicker and the fight only gets easier from there for Doane.

[turbozed]

You know where I'm at on this one. I think the value is with Doane. He's fought some very good competition in the UFC, including late notice vs Bektic, so it's hard to fault him too much for his losses. Yes, he has shown some moments of poor fight IQ, but he is a skilled fighter nonetheless.

I believe Yahya desperately needs the cage to be successful with TDs and Doane could have the length and footwork to keep him at bay. If he's successful early and forces Yahya to chase, then I think Yahya gets tired quicker and the fight only gets easier from there for Doane.

Doane showed some quick hips against some pretty deep double leg takedowns by Issa. Those takedowns looked a lot more explosive than anything Rani can do. So Rani definitely would need to get Doane against the cage or chain wrestle. Another factor is Doane's strength and scrambling. Bektic and Jerrod Sanders were able to control Doane but Bektic is super strong and Sanders is an NCAA Div I wrestler. I don't think it's game over even if it does hit the mat for a while.

People see the Rd1 submission losses on Doane's record and then see Rani's last win is a 1st round sub. Recency bias and not seeing the complete picture is giving us a great price on Doane. Can't believe it was +310 lol

[Shagdogy]

Doane showed some quick hips against some pretty deep double leg takedowns by Issa. Those takedowns looked a lot more explosive than anything Rani can do. So Rani definitely would need to get Doane against the cage or chain wrestle. Another factor is Doane's strength and scrambling. Bektic and Jerrod Sanders were able to control Doane but Bektic is super strong and Sanders is an NCAA Div I wrestler. I don't think it's game over even if it does hit the mat for a while.

People see the Rd1 submission losses on Doane's record and then see Rani's last win is a 1st round sub. Recency bias and not seeing the complete picture is giving us a great price on Doane. Can't believe it was +310 lol

I do like Doane's hips. Generally pretty good. Bektic (I think) shot a nice double in the center and got in under him pretty easily, but like you said, much more explosive than Yahya's TDs, plus Doane was on short notice and maybe just throwing caution to the wind. I think I'll be playing Doane, Alvey, Shelton, Morales all to win 1u. I'm feeling like with plus money on all of them there's a decent chance that turns into a small win and could hit big with some luck. It's low risk anyway.

[Shagdogy]

Are we getting each weigh ins today?

[turbozed]

I ended up taking Moroz as the +145 underdog for small too btw.

Think the fight is a coinflip so have to fire if I'm getting + odds. I heard that Hill was out of shape when she got the call 4 weeks ago. Looking through Instagram, Moroz has been training and battle ready for a lot longer.

[turbozed]

Are we getting each weigh ins today?

Yeah, everyone made weight except for Perez who missed by half a pound. Has an hour to cut the rest. Emmett and Barao both looked okay on the scales.

[ken10]

Yeah, everyone made weight except for Perez who missed by half a pound. Has an hour to cut the rest. Emmett and Barao both looked okay on the scales.

Yay barao. First time training full time at ATT and eating right 😋

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Barao is shot and Kelleher is gonna beat his ass. Want to put some BetPoints on it with me Ken? I'd give you (-150) on Barao.

Any update on this Ken?

[ken10]

Any update on this Ken?

Sorry didn’t see that. sure let’s do it. Just have to let me know how it works.

[Shagdogy]

I ended up taking Moroz as the +145 underdog for small too btw.

Think the fight is a coinflip so have to fire if I'm getting + odds. I heard that Hill was out of shape when she got the call 4 weeks ago. Looking through Instagram, Moroz has been training and battle ready for a lot longer.

Yeah I'm staying away from Hill/Moroz. WMMA has been good to us, but this card doesn't seem like a great spot. I trust your analysis of Andrade/Torres and no I don't think Torres can win with a range game. Andrade will advance and trade much bigger strikes.

Do you trust McMann enough in her matchup to be a parlay piece?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sorry didn’t see that. sure let’s do it. Just have to let me know how it works.

No problem. Let’s do my 200 to your 300. You’ve got Barao, I’ve got Kelleher. If you win, I’ll transfer the balance right away. Does that work?

[turbozed]

Yeah I'm staying away from Hill/Moroz. WMMA has been good to us, but this card doesn't seem like a great spot. I trust your analysis of Andrade/Torres and no I don't think Torres can win with a range game. Andrade will advance and trade much bigger strikes.

Do you trust McMann enough in her matchup to be a parlay piece?

No I don't. I think she wins though. I hear she had some sort of shoulder injury coming into the Vieira fight which explains the lack of resistance to that arm triangle. Tiny stab at her decision line when it was +120. I also took a tiny stab at Reneau submission +905 for price alone. I don't have a good enough feel for this one and -240 isn't too far away from the -300 price on Andrade.

Re Hill/Moroz, I think it's a bad sign for Hill that we were both looking to bet her but swerved after tape. I've been thinking she's been underrated or had good potential for a while, but that can't be true if she's losing fights where she's a -185 favorite. On the other hand, Moroz actually might be underrated. Coming off a loss and not looking too impressive against her previous opponents (which might be a result of the style matchup and not totally her fault) she opened up the underdog against Jamie Moyle.

I think there's some value in Moroz. It's not huge but it's there. Also took a bit of the +280 decision line when it opened.

[Shagdogy]

No I don't. I think she wins though. I hear she had some sort of shoulder injury coming into the Vieira fight which explains the lack of resistance to that arm triangle. Tiny stab at her decision line when it was +120. I also took a tiny stab at Reneau submission +905 for price alone. I don't have a good enough feel for this one and -240 isn't too far away from the -300 price on Andrade.

Re Hill/Moroz, I think it's a bad sign for Hill that we were both looking to bet her but swerved after tape. I've been thinking she's been underrated or had good potential for a while, but that can't be true if she's losing fights where she's a -185 favorite. On the other hand, Moroz actually might be underrated. Coming off a loss and not looking too impressive against her previous opponents (which might be a result of the style matchup and not totally her fault) she opened up the underdog against Jamie Moyle.

I think there's some value in Moroz. It's not huge but it's there. Also took a bit of the +280 decision line when it opened.

The length and youth of Moroz are two factors that I really like. If she had a speed advantage I would really really like her in this matchup. She clearly doesn't have the speed advantage, but with the way that she counters, she may not need to be super fast, but just accurate which she generally is.

I don't think Hill uses enough feints to get in cleanly on Moroz without eating the counters in return. If Moroz is sharp, she could definitely use her length to keep Hill at bay and pick at her. I definitely think Moroz dec is the play if you want to play her. +280 is good for you. I may still consider it at +220.

[ken10]

No problem. Let’s do my 200 to your 300. You’ve got Barao, I’ve got Kelleher. If you win, I’ll transfer the balance right away. Does that work?

You got a deal!!

[ken10]

I added Platinum Mike to close out several two team parlays for even money or so. All my eggs in that basket so hopefully mike comes through lol...

[Shagdogy]

Reneau has nice standup and a good ground game off of her back, but she doesn't have the TD or TDD to put those two skills together into a complete game. With the advantage on the feet, I'm not sure she has the TDD to keep it there. And if she's outgunned on the feet, can she bring the fight to the mat? Probably not. So she really needs to be better in both areas, or better in one and a stalemate in the other. We saw this in her most recent fight with Bernardo. She was better on the feet by far, and she was able to stalemate from bottom position. However, she didn't have the TDD even against a completely gassed Bernardo to keep the fight on the feet where she was clearly winning and put her away much earlier like she should have. Against someone like McMann, I don't know that she can suddenly have improved her TDD enough to keep the fight standing where she would have the advantage. So the question is whether or not Reneau can get the sub from bottom position, and I say, probably not. McMann has never been subbed from inside of someone's guard.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Reneau has nice standup and a good ground game off of her back, but she doesn't have the TD or TDD to put those two skills together into a complete game. With the advantage on the feet, I'm not sure she has the TDD to keep it there. And if she's outgunned on the feet, can she bring the fight to the mat? Probably not. So she really needs to be better in both areas, or better in one and a stalemate in the other. We saw this in her most recent fight with Bernardo. She was better on the feet by far, and she was able to stalemate from bottom position. However, she didn't have the TDD even against a completely gassed Bernardo to keep the fight on the feet where she was clearly winning and put her away much earlier like she should have. Against someone like McMann, I don't know that she can suddenly have improved her TDD enough to keep the fight standing where she would have the advantage. So the question is whether or not Reneau can get the sub from bottom position, and I say, probably not. McMann has never been subbed from inside of someone's guard.

I think Reneau is actually very dangerous from bottom. Hit a Triangle on Andrade and McMann is a quitter. I could definitely see Reneau getting a finish. If she doesn’t finish, I think McMann controls to a boring decision

[ken10]

I agree that McMann is a quitter. Weird to say about an Olympic wrestler

[TPowell]

Threw a half on Doane at +215 after tape study. Not super excited but it's striker vs bjj whiz so there is some value.

[TPowell]

Will be looking at plays on these dogs tonight. Have my red bull ready for a marathon session watching tape

Shelton
Morales
Alvey

[Sanity Check]

Yay barao. First time training full time at ATT and eating right 

If Barao moved from nova uniao in brazil to the united states, he's probably eating worse than ever considering american food is the most unhealthy in the entire world. Growth hormones in milk and meat are bad. GMO's are very bad.

I remember when Junior Dos Santos moved from nova uniao in brazil to american top team(to work on his wrestling as I think there were not many good heavyweights for him to train with in brazil). That might have been when he got knocked out by Alistair Overeem.

Some of those brazilians don't speak english and might not understand what their trainers are saying.

Be careful with that.

[Shagdogy]

Will be looking at plays on these dogs tonight. Have my red bull ready for a marathon session watching tape

Shelton
Morales
Alvey

Hop in TPow. I went win 1u on Doane, Shelton, Morales, Alvey, Moroz. The all dog card. I admit I got some pretty awful lines but still some value. Didn't risk much.

Good luck finding any useful tape of Manny Bermudez. Let us know what you find tonight.

[Shagdogy]

I agree that McMann is a quitter. Weird to say about an Olympic wrestler

So weird. It definitely looked like she gave up on that arm triangle against Vieira. However, she still hasn't been submitted from inside someone's guard so Reneau would have to be the first to do it. She has a nice, active guard but I'm just not sure she can land that sub. I have to side with McMann here. Gonna pick her to win, but prob not gonna bet her unless I put her small in a parlay.

Reneau should have plenty of chances to land that sub. I don't think she's gonna have the TDD to hold up against McMann.

[Shagdogy]

Hop in TPow. I went win 1u on Doane, Shelton, Morales, Alvey, Moroz. The all dog card. I admit I got some pretty awful lines but still some value. Didn't risk much.

Good luck finding any useful tape of Manny Bermudez. Let us know what you find tonight.

Oh and Kelleher too. Woof woof.

[Sanity Check]

I agree that McMann is a quitter. Weird to say about an Olympic wrestler

I don't think she's a quitter. She has trouble relaxing and calming down in the cage. Vieira won because she stayed calm and cool while McMann burned through all her cardio via adrenaline dump.

For McMann she has to remember to breathe and relax in there and practice that. Practice slowing her heart rate and lowering her intensity. It could be a mental thing. Watch her fight. Her intensity level is off the charts. Its actually too high at times.

[Richard Clock]

I don't think she's a quitter. She has trouble relaxing and calming down in the cage. Vieira won because she stayed calm and cool while McMann burned through all her cardio via adrenaline dump.

For McMann she has to remember to breathe and relax in there and practice that. Practice slowing her heart rate and lowering her intensity. It could be a mental thing. Watch her fight. Her intensity level is off the charts. Its actually too high at times.

Calling fighters "quitters" because they didn't defend a choke with the urgency that is to your liking is laughable. Overreactions like this is how people loss money.

[Shagdogy]

Calling fighters "quitters" because they didn't defend a choke with the urgency that is to your liking is laughable. Overreactions like this is how people loss money.

I don't necessarily think she's a quitter. I do think that it looked like she could've fought that arm triangle a bit more. She adjusted and got more room just seconds before tapping, and then as she tapped she was also looking to say something, which implies that she was very aware and with it. Maybe she couldn't have escaped, but she didn't have that fight to the death mindset. Now, Turbo pointed out she may have had a shoulder injury and that could play a big role.

I would like to give the benefit of doubt to an Olympic wrestler because lifelong wrestlers are generally very high grit competitors, especially great wrestlers. I do think you need to evaluate the grit of a fighter as part of your capping. I'm not 100% sure that McMann is a quitter, but I can't rate her as "high grit." Saying she's average still leaves room for a very high grit fighter to potentially break her. In this matchup I don't think it's likely since I don't think Reneau will be able to make McMann fight outside of her comfort zone.

[PAULYPOKER]

I think Emmett knocks StevensStephens out.........

What am I missing here??

[TPowell]

This is set up to be a huge card. I have 12 units already in play mostly on the perry, Stephens, and hill fights but I have leans to those dogs. I'm definitely passing on the osp and barao fights due to how untrustworthy the guys in them are

[Shagdogy]

This is set up to be a huge card. I have 12 units already in play mostly on the perry, Stephens, and hill fights but I have leans to those dogs. I'm definitely passing on the osp and barao fights due to how untrustworthy the guys in them are

How did you play those?

[JIBBBY]

Gave this fight some thought.. Jeremy Stevens is as tough as they come and I've never seen him knocked out unconscious... Emmet on the rise though and hits hard.. Doesn't have the resume that Stevens has.. Stevens is actually the younger fighter too..

Bottom line is Emmett does win most of his fights by decision so I guess there is chance he could out work Stevens to a decision win.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Emmett-85885

Jeremy Stevens though has the experience advantage, Jeremy looking good lately in his last couple fights....

Jeremy is probably the more technical fighter, I think I'm gonna go with Lil Heathen Stevens by KO hedged Emmett by decision..

The one thing we know is Stevens sports a granite chin and probably won't get knocked out in this fight.. It's more likely Emmett get's KO'd if they start trading in the pocket...

I'm gonna hedge these.. Fighter trends point to one of these out comes...

1041 Stephens wins by TKO/KO

+150

1007 Emmett wins by 5 round decision

+500

FOX Main Card



Josh
Emmett
vs
Jeremy
Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

13-1-0
Record
26-14-0

31%
KO/TKO
67%

15%
SUB
7%

54%
DEC
26%

66 in
Height
69 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

70 in
Reach
71 in

39 in
Leg Reach
38 in

[rsynweap84]

Calling fighters "quitters" because they didn't defend a choke with the urgency that is to your liking is laughable. Overreactions like this is how people loss money.

Well she does horrible off her back, and seems to give up most time, personally I just think she has top control knowledge and nothin’ else. Thats why I picked Reneau, don’t misunderstand me, She will get taken down, but she has good sweeps and an active guard, if she ain’t kept there, she will either finish the fight or take the decision. Given Mcmann’s history on bottom or in a submission, kinda easy to see why she is seen as a quitter.

[Shagdogy]

Jibbs, have we seen Emmett rocked? I don't recall it. That was only heathen's 2nd TKO in 10 fights so he may not be pure power like he gets credit for.

I may play the over here, but I admit these guys prob won't fight a style for it. They may both be durable enough though.

[ken10]

Emmett by decision is the play imo.

[TPowell]

Jibbs, have we seen Emmett rocked? I don't recall it. That was only heathen's 2nd TKO in 10 fights so he may not be pure power like he gets credit for.

I may play the over here, but I admit these guys prob won't fight a style for it. They may both be durable enough though.

Stephens definitely has power. His technique has just been too reliant on the one punch for a while. The last couple fights he's really turned it around though and used more precision IMO. The other thing is he fought tough as nails guys like Edgar, Holloway, and Moicano (not tough just ran like crazy). I thought Emmett was a stud the first time I saw him against Tuck but he hasn't been as impressive as I expected since. He's faced an absolute lineup of pillow hitters like Tuck, Holtzman, Green, Arantes, and then Lamas. Lamas is kind of the lone standout there but the fight only lasted a round. I'm not sold on Emmett's chin being that good and I'm not sold on his power either. That wasn't the 1st or 2nd time Lamas has been flattened by punches.