UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee (October 07, 2017)

[Demonata]

"Bro he has no path to victory. I can't see Fighter A losing."
-Some people on this forum

Yeah or when people hedge and hedge there hedges. Or have a hundred different bets on the same fight. So they make almost no money by the end of the card.

[THE_RUDESTER]

I think Mighty Mouse get the win here inside the distance. He's about to set ufc history this Saturday and I think he does it with a finish. Johnson inside distance -155 seems very likely. Any thoughts on this?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nick Lentz is gritty and tough, not an easy fight for Brooks.. I'm not sure how I'm gonna play it? Maybe the over props..

Yeah smells like a boring decision to me. What's the price on the O/U?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Mighty Mouse get the win here inside the distance. He's about to set ufc history this Saturday and I think he does it with a finish. Johnson inside distance -155 seems very likely. Any thoughts on this?

I think he finishes Borg.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah smells like a boring decision to me. What's the price on the O/U?

Pricey as expected..

1603 Lentz / Brooks goes 3 round distance

-215

[Shagdogy]

One flaw I do see in Duke's game is that he is a bit chinny as a consequence of poor striking defense. He's been dropped in several of his fights.

Yeah I've seen this. He recovers very quickly though and he has also been in some wars and worn the strikes quite well (thinking Philpott). I don't doubt that he can get rocked but I do doubt that he's easy to put away or even slow down for more than a minute. I also don't like Cody's chances of landing heavy hands on Duke. Given the pressure that Duke puts on, I expect Cody to turn to his wrestling pretty quickly. Once he starts with the double legs I think we'll know the outcome of the fight pretty quickly. If he puts and keeps Duke on his back, he wins. Otherwise I think Duke gets stronger and stronger, especially if Cody sticks to a takedown game that isn't working.

[turbozed]

The x factor where you can't trust him. He's a fighter you don't know if he cares or not each fight.

Fair enough. Green has been a headcase in the past but that might have been situational due to his two brothers getting shot and one being killed. In the last fight with Magomedov he stopped clowning and looked a lot more reliable. I took that as a good sign and hoping it continues. But he might have regressed or has new personal problems.

[turbozed]

Yeah or when people hedge and hedge there hedges. Or have a hundred different bets on the same fight. So they make almost no money by the end of the card.

Hedging is just a strategy to minimize variance. Think about getting better than even odds on both sides of a coinflip. You can make or lose money faster by betting just one side and hoping the flip goes your way. Or you can bet both and take the guaranteed edge. Betting is also scaleable. You can make money doing it by just increasing your bet size for the main bet and the hedge.

[Demonata]

Hedging is just a strategy to minimize variance. Think about getting better than even odds on both sides of a coinflip. You can make or lose money faster by betting just one side and hoping the flip goes your way. Or you can bet both and take the guaranteed edge. Betting is also scaleable. You can make money doing it by just increasing your bet size for the main bet and the hedge.

Its just throwing away profit. No way to sugarcoat it.

[turbozed]

With the exception of Jack Slack, almost all of the knowledgeable analysts I follow are really high on Duquesnoy, particularly his striking. The consensus is that Duquesnoy will put Stamann out eventually against the cage. I'm not seeing it myself but is scaring me off enough to go light on Stamann.

For people on Duquesnoy, what's the most significant observation about the fight that you would point to to support a Duquesnoy win?

[Demonata]

With the exception of Jack Slack, almost all of the knowledgeable analysts I follow are really high on Duquesnoy, particularly his striking. The consensus is that Duquesnoy will put Stamann out eventually against the cage. I'm not seeing it myself but is scaring me off enough to go light on Stamann.

For people on Duquesnoy, what's the most significant observation about the fight that you would point to to support a Duquesnoy win?

He is known for his quick striking and dynamic style. In 2015, Duquesnoy was named the #1 featherweight prospect in the world and one of the very best talents in all of MMA. and was ranked the #1 prospect worldwide in all of MMA for both 2016 and 2017. Trains at jackson wink. He's the faster striker and see him with the better chance at a tko. That elbow in his last fight was brutal. Loaded with talent and now that his ufc debute out of the way and he's just loaded with talent.

[PaperTrail07]

Tough fight to call IMO and both are killers....Duqeus thrown MEAN shots and comes at all angles.....he wins we will see a highlight...on the flip...we could get to see if his TDD is good.....

He is known for his quick striking and dynamic style. In 2015, Duquesnoy was named the #1 featherweight prospect in the world and one of the very best talents in all of MMA. and was ranked the #1 prospect worldwide in all of MMA for both 2016 and 2017. Trains at jackson wink. He's the faster striker and see him with the better chance at a tko. That elbow in his last fight was brutal. Loaded with talent and now that his ufc debute out of the way and he's just loaded with talent.

[turbozed]

Kevin Lee weighs in initially at 156 lbs. Doctors clear him to try to cut the extra pound. He's got a little less than an hour to do it. Did not look too happy or healthy on the scale.

[JIBBBY]

Kevin Lee weighs in initially at 156 lbs. Doctors clear him to try to cut the extra pound. He's got a little less than an hour to do it. Did not look too happy or healthy on the scale.

Hard cuts for KL are nothing new for the wrestler. I don't see this being a big deal.. One pound he'll stationary bike it off and sweat it off in a few minutes and hit the weight..

[turbozed]

154.5 on 2nd attempt for Lee

[Shagdogy]

With the exception of Jack Slack, almost all of the knowledgeable analysts I follow are really high on Duquesnoy, particularly his striking. The consensus is that Duquesnoy will put Stamann out eventually against the cage. I'm not seeing it myself but is scaring me off enough to go light on Stamann.

For people on Duquesnoy, what's the most significant observation about the fight that you would point to to support a Duquesnoy win?

Damage. He hurts people.

But to offer more - his ability to get to his feet is excellent, and his close range striking is varied, accurate, and dangerous. Meanwhile Stamann has decent standup but nowhere near the same level of danger to offer. If he trades punch for punch (or elbow) he will take more of a beating. Stamann's biggest strength is he can revert to his power double when needed. But Duke seems to be very good at getting up and getting right back in your face. We've seen time and again where a wrestler can't use his wrestling to slow you down, things can get ugly.

[eligibletackle]

Black Beast! Black Beast!

I will take most any underdog against Werdum that has the athleticism advantage. One of those HWs matchups where I couldn't fathom going chalk. I don't care that much about Werdum's grappling pedigree or improved striking. He will always be slow and plodding. I anticipate Werdum to be susceptible for the first 6, maybe even 7 minutes - and I will take that!

[JIBBBY]

I'm going EL Cucuy ITD.. I think Tony either gets the sub or KO late when Lee gasses out.. 5 rounds is along time to go when struggling to make weight..

I just think El Cucuy is too slick and well rounded and won't be kept on his back for 5 rounds.. El Cucuy is really in his MMA prime right now and fighting his best.. He's gonna be a really tough out for Kevin Lee anyways.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Damage. He hurts people.

But to offer more - his ability to get to his feet is excellent, and his close range striking is varied, accurate, and dangerous. Meanwhile Stamann has decent standup but nowhere near the same level of danger to offer. If he trades punch for punch (or elbow) he will take more of a beating. Stamann's biggest strength is he can revert to his power double when needed. But Duke seems to be very good at getting up and getting right back in your face. We've seen time and again where a wrestler can't use his wrestling to slow you down, things can get ugly.

I think Duke is a great scrambler too.

[Thor4140]

I think a bet on either underdog should be the play. So I gotta put a small bet on Lee. This should be even money IMO. What has Ferguson done that's so great? He was getting beatup by Vannata and Barboza. He beat RDA 48-47, that was his greatest accomplishment.

HE was losing all three of those fights an did something illegal to change momentum in two of them. That is just facts guys refuse to admit. I CALL HIM L Cheato. Love watching him fight tho. He is sneaky good. I'll be on Lee tho.

[Hugo de Naranja]

HE was losing all three of those fights an did something illegal to change momentum in two of them. That is just facts guys refuse to admit. I CALL HIM L Cheato. Love watching him fight tho. He is sneaky good. I'll be on Lee tho.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Upzr8xH7Yxg/maxresdefault.jpg

[GoBlue77]

How much you got on Lee?

zero lol. just talking shit.

truth be told. experience will be the factor here. ferguson is going to win, with the vegas distraction, big fight headliner, more experienced fighter and age difference, ferguson is the play for sure.

just think the UFC is praying for a Lee victory as that would be a dream matchup for their cash cow mcgregor

[GoBlue77]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9geWoP_5nWI

homie is way TOO EMOTIONAL

load up on Tony if you love money

[Demonata]

I think lee uses insulin growth as well. He gets the same bumps on his belly as jon jones and lots of juiced athletes get

[jarehrig]

what site are you guys using that allows ufc live bets someone needs to hit me with a refferal

[JIBBBY]

Final write up from MMA mania...

125 lbs.: Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (26-2-1) vs. Ray “Tazmexican Devil” Borg (11-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: If you listen to all those pre-fight video promos, flyweight No. 1 contender Ray Borg sternly tells the camera that reigning 125-pound kingpin Demetrious Johnson has never faced a fighter like him.
He’s right. “Mighty Mouse” has faced much, much better.
Johnson is perhaps the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and one title defense away from immortality. Along the way, he’s defeated fighters who hit harder than Borg (John Dodson), who were faster than Borg (Joseph Benavidez), and who were better wrestlers than Borg (Henry Cejudo).
What exactly is the “Tazmexican Devil” — who lost to Justin Scoggins just last year — going to bring to the Octagon that Johnson hasn’t already seen ... and conquered?
That’s really what this fight boils down to. Borg, a solid all-around fighter, must somehow present a problem that Johnson can’t solve or perhaps give him a new look (think Tim Elliott) and if he cannot, hope he can get lucky with a one-hitter quitter or a sneaky submission.
Not really a winning strategy.
Johnson is the best for a reason. He has superior skill sets in every facet of mixed martial arts (MMA). He can strike, he can wrestle, he can grapple, and above all else, he can maintain a breakneck pace for all five rounds. He’s truly a special (albeit tiny) fighter and no one in the division has yet to find his achilles heel.
Borg won’t be the first.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Borg by decision

265 lbs.: Derrick “Black Beast” Lewis (18-5-1) vs. Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum (21-7-1)

Nostradumbass predicts: Fabricio Werdum is not in any big hurry to stand and bang with heavy hitters, evidenced by peek-a-boo performances against Alistair Overeem and Fedor Emelianenko, among others. You won’t find a more dangerous grappler in the heavyweight division, so why penetrate around on the feet?
That said, “Vai Cavalo” is not an inept striker and his Muay Thai has turned away bruisers like Mark Hunt and Travis Browne, just to name a few. It’s unfortunate that Werdum can often screw himself out of big fights due to laziness and/or overconfidence, which resulted in knockout losses to Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic.
Derrick Lewis, by his own admission, does not train jiu-jitsu and never will, simply because the Octagon is an excuse to punch someone in the face and get paid for it. Even if he did try to master the art of grappling, the wide chasm in skill sets would make it impossible to make any significant progress in a six-to-eight week fight camp.
Better to just stick with what’s already there.
Trying to out-slug someone like the aforementioned Hunt is a fool’s errand, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Lewis is quick and agile for his size, with lights-out power and sneaky footwork. But when you live by the sword, you die by the sword, which is why “Black Beast” was himself laid out by Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione.
It’s a dirty game.
Werdum has more ways to win, but in order to do so, he’s got to last 15 minutes without taking one on the chin. In both of his knockout losses, the Brazilian was moving forward with his hands low, a mistake I don’t expect him to repeat here. Instead, look for his tried-and-true game of cat and mouse, until Lewis gets tired enough or careless enough to silver platter an extremity.
Final prediction: Werdum def. Lewis by submission

125 lbs.: Mara Romero “Kunoichici” Borella (11-4, 1 NC) vs. Kalindra Faria (18-5-1)

Nostradumbass predicts: I never heard of these two before this week but that’s okay, neither have you. Mara Romero Borella got the call-up after just one fight for Invicta FC, a split-decision win over Milana Dudieva last July. Prior to that, “Kunaichici” was making a name for herself on the International circuit, specifically her native Italy.
Borella has a nice balance of knockouts (3) and submissions (4).
Faira also made a name for herself overseas, plying her trade on the Brazilian circuit before getting her shot in stateside competition for World Series of Fighting (WSOF) and Titan Fighting Championship, the latter of which resulted in a unanimous decision win over Carina Damm.
This bout has more to do with the promotion’s newly-created flyweight division than it does merit, as both fighters — while talented — may not have been selected for the PPV main card under normal circumstances. But that may actually prove to be a good thing, as the pressure will be on to deliver and I believe they will.
When push comes to shove, Faria has faced better competition but has not competed in over a year, while Borella has already competed — and won -- twice in 2017, as recently as last July.
Final prediction: Borella def. Faria by decision

155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush (14-3) vs. Evan Dunham (18-6)

Nostradumbass predicts: Evan Dunham started his career with 12 straight wins, which included consecutive victories of Efrain Escudero and Tyson Griffin to start his UFC run. Trust me when I say that was a big deal back in 2010.
Then it all went to pot.
Dunham spent the next four years mired in a 3-6 slump and after dropping three straight, was likely one lame-duck performance away from getting cut. Instead, the Oregonian battled back to win four straight fights.
Working against him is the fact that he’s been out of action for over a year.
Dariush was also pegged as a future contender after a clean sweep on the regional circuit. Success followed him to UFC where he captured wins over tough competition like Jim Miller and Michael Johnson, but once the model of consistency, the Kings MMA product is just 2-2 since outpointing “The Menace.”
Both fighters are formidable on the ground. Dunham has a black belt under Robert Drysdale while Dariush was belted by Bruno Paulista and Romulo Barral. That said, Dariush is probably the more accomplished grappler with multiple no-gi world championships and silver medals at Mundials.
Both have been submitted inside the Octagon.
Dunham is going to try to make this a brawl and use his wrestling to control the fight. That could prove to be a tall order against an opponent seven years his junior and those who have underestimated Dariush’s striking have paid mightily for it (James Vick).
Final prediction: Dariush def. Dunham by submission

[JIBBBY]

I remember seeing Kevin Lee gas out before in his early fights and those were only 3 round fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Lee-84342

Being that Kevin Lee has never fought past round 3 in his life I gotta believe he's gonna gas out late in this 5 rounder.. Struggling to make weight doesn't help his cardio either.... I think EL Cucuy drops him standing first and then gets the sub win by darse choke or RNC I think in round 4 or 5. That's my prediction..

[HurlSweatPants]

Bet the house on Beltran, my roomate trains with Schnell and says that he is going in super banged up and is still having issues with a concussion he suffered during the Font KO.

[Shagdogy]

Was really looking for a reason to bet Mara Borella again at underdog odds after she made us some cash against Dudieva. Ended up watching tape and instead really liking Kalindra Faria here.

Borella isn't very technical but has physical gifts. Long reach and appears to be a bit stronger than her opponents. Her striking is extremely wooden, however. She beat Dudieva in her last fight but Dudieva is just a terrible fighter. If you look through Borella's record, she basically loses to any competition over 50/50 (maybe one exception or two, but they were terrible fighters too).

Unfortunately for Borella, Kalindra Faria looks even stronger and more menacing than Borella does. Faria is built like a dude and seems to dwarf her competition. Seems a weight class bigger than Borella in the staredown below (obviously its hard to tell because Faria probably wearing heels and Borella is in a hoody). Faria is a better striker and can probably move her head away from the centerline to avoid Borella's long but very telegraphed monkey arm punches. Faria seems to be able to transition well from striking to a takedown (bodylock, trip, etc.). From there she's able to just maintain top control. She leaves her neck exposed but I don't think Borella can capitalize (at least she doesn't have a choke SUB yet in her career). This fight seems like one of those fights where whichever girl with the poor technique bodylock or head/arm throw hits the takedown wins the round and eventually the fight. I'm thinking Faria can do this for all three rounds. Or she can keep it standing where she also has the advantage.

Oh and Borella is coming in on short notice. -190 might even have value here.

Damn Turbo. I watched Borella and was thinking this might be a good dog spot. She's a tank and even though her technique lacks in spots, she has a pretty imposing takedown and top game which is a good start. Then I remembered that you wrote something up about this fight. Now that I read this I'm less excited. Need to go watch Faria, but from what you wrote up it sounds like she cancels out most of what's to like about Borella. That's too bad. I definitely don't enjoy betting favorites in the women's game.

[JIBBBY]

Bet the house on Beltran, my roomate trains with Schnell and says that he is going in super banged up and is still having issues with a concussion he suffered during the Font KO.

Yup, had my eye on Beltran regardless of how Schnell is doing anyways.. Beltran's fight to win for sure..

[HurlSweatPants]

Yup, had my eye on Beltran regardless of how Schnell is doing anyways.. Beltran's fight to win for sure..

I am completely full of crap Jibbs. Just trying to get the convo going before the fights start.

[JIBBBY]

I am completely full of crap Jibbs. Just trying to get the convo going before the fights start.

Regardless of your post my bet was already in on Beltran.. The odds have been steadily going up for Beltran as well as money is coming in on him late leading up to fight time... He's now a favorite and no longer a dog on most books..

[HurlSweatPants]

Regardless of your post my bet was already in on Beltran.. The odds have been steadily going up for Beltran as well as money is coming in on him late leading up to fight time... He's now a favorite and no longer a dog on most books..

Tough one to call, Beltran has looked like trash since TUF and Schnell was actually looking good in the Font fight until he got KOd.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee Picks:
Brad Tavares Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Magomed Bibulatov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Walt Harris Round 1 KO (Punches)
Marco Beltran Round 2 KO (Punches)
Poliana Botelho Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Lando Vannata Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Tom Duquesnoy Round 2 TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Beneil Dariush Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Kalindra Faria Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fabricio Werdum Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Demetrious Johnson Round 5 Submission (Armbar)
Tony Ferguson Round 2 Submission (D’arce Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Tavares vs. Leites
Tavares Decision (+110) 2u
Tavares -3.5 (+175) .5u

Fight #2: Bibulatov vs. Moraga
Moraga Submission (+1605) .5u

Fight #3: Harris vs. Godbeer
Harris+Godbeer Under 1.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Beltran vs. Schnell
Beltran+Schnell Under 1.5 (+185) 1u
Beltran+Schnell Won’t Start Round 2 (+232) .5u

Fight #5: Gonzalez vs. Botelho (DEBUT)
Gonzalez+Botelho Under 2.5 (+220) .5u
Botelho ITD (+375) .5u

Fight #6: Vannata vs. Green
Vannata Round 1 (+425) 1u

Fight #7: Duquesnoy vs. Stamann
Duquesnoy ITD (+202) 1.5u
Duquesnoy Submission (+750) .25u

Hedge:
Stamann Decision (+200) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Dariush vs. Dunham
No Bet

Fight #9: Faria vs. Romero Borella
No Bet

Fight #10: Werdum vs. Lewis
No Bet

Fight #11: Johnson (C) vs. Borg
Johnson Round 3 (+575) .5u
Johnson Round 4 (+775) .5u
Johnson Round 5 (+1200) .5u

Hedge(s):
Borg ITD (+1110) .25u
Borg Round 1 (+2350) .25u

Fight #12: Ferguson vs. Lee
Ferguson ITD (-105) 2.1u to win 2u
Ferguson+Lee Won’t Start Round 3 (+115) 2u
Ferguson Submission (+300) 1.5u
Ferguson Round 2 (+550) .5u
Ferguson Round 3 (+575) .5u
Ferguson Unanimous Decision (+575) .5u
Ferguson+Lee Draw (+10000) .2u

Hedge(s):
Lee ITD (+384) 1u
Lee Round 1 (+825) .5u
Lee KO/TKO (+1100) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Duquesnoy/Johnson -5.5 (-105) 2u to win 1.9u
Bibulatov -3.5/Ferguson (+136) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Bibulatov -3.5/Harris+Godbeer WSR3 (+105) 1u
Werdum -3.5/Ferguson -5.5/Johnson -9.5 (+252) .5u
Tavares/Bibulatov Decision/Harris Round 1 (+446) .25u
Duquesnoy/Dariush -3.5/Faria Decision (+677) .25u
Beltran/Gonzalez+Botelho U2.5/Green (+1396) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+331) 1.25u
Harris Wins Fastest KO (+325) .5u
Ferguson Wins Fastest Submission (+750) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+945) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+3100) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Ferguson/Gastelum (+134) 1u