UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee (October 07, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

Off to Legassi Stadium! or the fights LOL...

Thanks. I'll be placing the bet in Vegas so I'm going to have to roll with what they have there.

[Shagdogy]

Glad you think the same. Here's my quick cap blurb from my notes:

Tavares looks better striking each time and his grappling seems to get better too. Able to counter wrestle Magalhaes against fence (very strong BJJ black belt), and also showed some sweet ground transitions against Theodorou. Tavares defended 7of 9 takedowns against Theodorou. He will only need to defend a couple of takedown attempts in 1st and halfway through 2nd against Leites. If he does,he'll be able to light Leites up with strikes who gasses early. Tavares should be -150 favorite. If he gets controlled on the ground in 1st, look for good live odds for comeback win.

Yup. And don't forget Tavares never been subbed.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Demonata]

Hmmm thinking of a good 3 teamer? Thinking tavares,werdum, ferguson

[kobejoshy]

I like Werdum, Vannata and Brooks as a decent 3-teamer? Maybe sub in Dariush for one of them.

[PaperTrail07]

Just slam Werdum..all you have to do is use the Travis Browne Gameplan without the Dumb IQ late lol...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Werdum, Vannata and Brooks as a decent 3-teamer? Maybe sub in Dariush for one of them.

I'd stay away from Brooks. Has massively underperformed in the UFC. Could be a victim of USADA. I definitely trust Dariush more

[JIBBBY]

Daruish should beat Dunham unless he gets clinched up and grinded on for 3 rounds.. I like Daruish in this spot even at the -200 odds.

[Shagdogy]

Tom Duquesnoy is a special fighter. The pace that he put on Williams was relentless and he used stance switches to cut off the cage so well. He stayed in Williams's face and gassed him out. He also has some of the best knees and elbows in short range that I've seen. They are accurate and sharp. Stamann was way too willing to back up against the cage in his fight with Ware and he was too easily hittable. He won that fight with strong double legs in each round that he landed as a counter to Ware's aggression. Duquesnoy will bring more aggression and more dangerous striking but he has good enough hips to avoid some of the takedowns and he gets to his feet well if taken down, and then goes straight back to relentless pressure. Stamann is going to find himself stuck on the feet, and likely backed up against the cage, a bit too often here against Duquesnoy and that's no winning strategy. Stamann has never been stopped and his chin looked good vs. Ware, but this is a different beast with those elbows. Duke beats him up on the feet and potentially gets a stoppage. I think this is a bad matchup for Stamann.

[turbozed]

Tom Duquesnoy is a special fighter. The pace that he put on Williams was relentless and he used stance switches to cut off the cage so well. He stayed in Williams's face and gassed him out. He also has some of the best knees and elbows in short range that I've seen. They are accurate and sharp. Stamann was way too willing to back up against the cage in his fight with Ware and he was too easily hittable. He won that fight with strong double legs in each round that he landed as a counter to Ware's aggression. Duquesnoy will bring more aggression and more dangerous striking but he has good enough hips to avoid some of the takedowns and he gets to his feet well if taken down, and then goes straight back to relentless pressure. Stamann is going to find himself stuck on the feet, and likely backed up against the cage, a bit too often here against Duquesnoy and that's no winning strategy. Stamann has never been stopped and his chin looked good vs. Ware, but this is a different beast with those elbows. Duke beats him up on the feet and potentially gets a stoppage. I think this is a bad matchup for Stamann.

Looks like we disagree on this one. I was actually thinking Stamann was a bad matchup for Duquesnoy. When capping this I was impressed by Stamann's ability to mix up his striking with take down feints. He fought Ware one a week's notice and looked like he had endless cardio. He looks composed and balanced enough in striking to take advantage of Duquesnoy's style, who can jump in and overextend himself at times (Williams was able to take him down in the 1st because of this). Duq arguably lost the fight with Loughnane expecting to have to defend takedowns but actually getting countered and outstruck (even got dropped in the 1st rd). In interviews with Stamann, he seems like a very intelligent guy. Also claims that nobody he's trained with is stronger than him at 135 lbs. He might be right. I think Duquesnoy might be able to defend takedowns in Rd1 but Stamann's pressure will keep him guessing and he lands enough volume and TDs after that to win.

[turbozed]

Daruish should beat Dunham unless he gets clinched up and grinded on for 3 rounds.. I like Daruish in this spot even at the -200 odds.

Fun fact for you history fans, Beneil Dariush's last name is the same as Darius the Great, the third king (and consensus p4p greatest king) of the Persian Achaemenid Empire.

[Shagdogy]

Looks like we disagree on this one. I was actually thinking Stamann was a bad matchup for Duquesnoy. When capping this I was impressed by Stamann's ability to mix up his striking with take down feints. He fought Ware one a week's notice and looked like he had endless cardio. He looks composed and balanced enough in striking to take advantage of Duquesnoy's style, who can jump in and overextend himself at times (Williams was able to take him down in the 1st because of this). Duq arguably lost the fight with Loughnane expecting to have to defend takedowns but actually getting countered and outstruck (even got dropped in the 1st rd). In interviews with Stamann, he seems like a very intelligent guy. Also claims that nobody he's trained with is stronger than him at 135 lbs. He might be right. I think Duquesnoy might be able to defend takedowns in Rd1 but Stamann's pressure will keep him guessing and he lands enough volume and TDs after that to win.

When I think of pressure in this fight, I think of Duq just walking down Willis relentlessly. He's not sprinting in there but he's in your face constantly. He strikes so well in the clinch and Stamann was a bit too hittable there vs. Ware. I agree that Stamann has a great gas tank so this will be hard fought. But I think the difference in ability to do damage on the feet is much too wide. Stamann might land some shots, but nothing too devastating, but Duq can straight up hurt people.

[Shagdogy]

^ Also, wasn't Stamann in shape for that fight? Didn't they pull him up of the Tuesday night card? So I believe he was in fight shape. Nonetheless he does have excellent cardio. I've seen that going back through his regional fights.

Edit: Nevermind. Just watched interview. I must remember incorrectly. He says he came off the couch.

[turbozed]

^ Also, wasn't Stamann in shape for that fight? Didn't they pull him up of the Tuesday night card? So I believe he was in fight shape. Nonetheless he does have excellent cardio. I've seen that going back through his regional fights.

Edit: Nevermind. Just watched interview. I must remember incorrectly. He says he came off the couch.

I think he was also coming right off of a knee injury. Also still had to work at his family business apparently.

The Michigander recently got his parents’ blessing to step away from his family’s restoration business before each fight.“I’ll always be part of the family business, but when it’s 10 weeks out from the fight, I won’t work at all,” he said. “My parents have always supported me as an athlete. My dad said, ‘You have the opportunity to do something great here. You should be spending your time in the gym.’”

LOL kinda funny

[Shagdogy]

Home sick from work today. Gonna get to watch some fights. Just rewatched more Stamann and Duquesnoy and this fight should be very very entertaining. I'm excited for it. I still think Duq takes it, but Stamann should have some successes. He's going to land takedowns almost certainly, but if he can't secure them then he could be in trouble. The wrestling pedigree for Williams was there and he couldn't secure the top position. Duq is very good at getting back to his feet. He has that weird, scrambly, looseness in his lanky limbs that makes it real hard to hold on to him and he shows a lot of urgency to avoid bad positions. He's already working his standup before he even hits the mat. Anyway - BOL Turbo. I like it better when we agree, but either way this fight should be fun. I can't get Duq yet on my book but I hope it stays -170 or better. I don't like him above 2-1.

[turbozed]

Home sick from work today. Gonna get to watch some fights. Just rewatched more Stamann and Duquesnoy and this fight should be very very entertaining. I'm excited for it. I still think Duq takes it, but Stamann should have some successes. He's going to land takedowns almost certainly, but if he can't secure them then he could be in trouble. The wrestling pedigree for Williams was there and he couldn't secure the top position. Duq is very good at getting back to his feet. He has that weird, scrambly, looseness in his lanky limbs that makes it real hard to hold on to him and he shows a lot of urgency to avoid bad positions. He's already working his standup before he even hits the mat. Anyway - BOL Turbo. I like it better when we agree, but either way this fight should be fun. I can't get Duq yet on my book but I hope it stays -170 or better. I don't like him above 2-1.

Something about this event but it looks like I'm going against the grain on most of these fights. On Botelho and Green so far as well.

I fully realize there's a possibility that Stamann gets elbowed and kneed into oblivion, Botelho gets taken down and subbed, and Green gets wheel kicked in the face while clowning.

Can't pull the trigger on Tavares at -185 though. I was really hoping it'd be closer and would've gotten down on it closer to the opener. Still might but value isn't the greatest.

[Shagdogy]

Walt Harris is 3-1 but he's a man on a mission right now and has some serious power. If he gets Godbeer on the ground he can smash him through the canvas. I wish he would work takedowns. He has a hand speed, reach, and power advantage anyway so this looks like a good spot for him. Godbeer's tough but I'm not sure he can bring enough pain to hang.

[JIBBBY]

Part 1 - MMA mania -



265 lbs.: Walt Harris vs. Mark Godbeer
Walt Harris (10-5) after going winless in his first three UFC appearances, seems to have finally found his footing, winning three of his last four bouts. All three victories came by knockout, including a savage combination against Chase Sherman that remains one of the year’s best finishes.
All 10 of the wins for “The Big Ticket” have come by knockout, nine of them in the first round.
Mark Godbeer (12-3) had a rough go of things in his Octagon debut, which saw him submitted by Justin Ledet to snap a three-fight knockout streak. He had a bit more luck his next time out, boxing up late replacement Daniel Spitz to pick up his first-ever decision victory.
He will give up three inches of height to the 6’5” Harris, though their reach is identical.
I’m not entirely sure what UFC is trying to accomplish here. We’ve seen Harris against slower, less-athletic strikers in his last two fights, and their response was to put him against another slow, less-athletic striker.
I mean, Godbeer’s a damn sight better than Cyril Asker, but he’s still got no clear avenue of victory. Aside from his 25-second loss to Nikita Krylov, Harris’ struggles have come against determined takedown artists and a man in Abdurakhimov who had the skill and patience to potshot him from range. Godbeer is built to go in and mix it up, which plays perfectly into Harris’ hands. If they’re there to be hit, Harris doesn’t need to hit them more than a few times. He scores an emphatic knockout late in the first.
Prediction: Harris via first-round knockout

125 lbs.: John Moraga vs. Magomed Bibulatov

Submission wins over Justin Scoggins and Willie Gates gave way to three consecutive losses for John Moraga (17-6), though he did put in an admirable effort against Joseph Benavidez. Luckily, “Chicano John” managed to get back on track in June with a one-sided decision over Australia’s Ashkan Mokhtarian in Auckland.
Four of his eight submission wins have come by guillotine.
Arguably the top Flyweight prospects in the world, Chechnya’s Magomed Bibulatov (14-0) tore through the competition in Russia and earned the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) Flyweight title before joining UFC. His debut went as expected, as he overpowered former professional boxer Jenel Lausa for a wide decision victory.
“Chaborz” has submitted five opponents and knocked out another two.
Moraga hits fairly hard, scrambles well and is stupid tough. That’s just not enough against the faster, more technically sound Bibulatov, whose kickboxing outclasses Moraga’s and who has the wrestling to dictate position for all 15 minutes.
Moraga’s only real hope is to catch Bibulatov in a guillotine as he shoots in — his takedown defense consistently fails him and he’s not quite deadly enough on the feet to damage Bibulatov before “Chaborz” gets in on his hips. Bibulatov continues his rise with a dominant decision, mixing in takedowns and powerful kicks to bust up his foe.
Prediction: Bibulatov via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Thales Leites vs. Brad Tavares

In 2013, Thales Leites (27-7) returned to UFC after four years away and promptly won five straight, scoring three stoppages and earning three post-fight bonuses in the process. A 1-3 run knocked him out of the Top 10, but he got back in the win column by outstriking Sam Alvey in April.
Fourteen of his wins have come by submission.
It’s been more than seven years since Brad Tavares (15-4) made his UFC debut off of a solid performance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 11, during which time he’s gone 10-4. Most recently, he put a 1-3 stretch behind him with consecutive victories over Caio Magalhaes and Elias Theodorou.
He will give up four inches of reach on fight night, though he does have two inches of leg reach on Leites.
I have a dreadful feeling that this fight will be both agonizing to watch and produce a frustrating decision. Tavares is just flat-out not a finisher — it’s been six years and 12 fights since he stopped anyone and that was a degraded Phil Baroni. Leites is aggressive and fun to watch when he’s on, but he also has a bad habit of disintegrating when things stop going his way.
I’ve got it just barely for Leites. He has the heavier strikes and Tavares — even when he’s ahead — doesn’t physically overwhelm people like Krzysztof Jotko or effortlessly shut down offense the way Gegard Mousasi does. He’s not a guy who will mentally break Leites. Power kicks and overall volume carry the Brazilian to the narrowest of split decisions.
Prediction: Leites via split decision

125 lbs.: Matt Schnellvs. Marco Antonio Beltran

The interim Legacy FC title earned Matt Schnell (10-4) the No. 6 rank on TUF 24, where he reached the quarterfinals before falling to eventual winner Tim Elliott. Durability issues have left “Danger” winless in UFC, unfortunately, as both Rob Font and Hector Sandoval knocked him out in the first round.
All but one of his eight stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Despite falling short on TUF: “Latin America,” Marco Antonio Beltran (8-5) found early success in UFC with three straight wins, among them a submission of TUF: “Brazil” 4 winner Reginaldo Vieira. He made the drop to Flyweight following a submission loss to Joe Soto, a move Deiveson Alcantara punished via second-round finish.
“Psycho” has submitted four opponents and knocked out another two as a professional.
Schnell, from what I can see, simply does not have the chin to thrive in UFC. Getting knocked out by Font is understandable — he can thump and Schnell was fighting 10 pounds above his normal weight. Sandoval, though, stopped him with point-blank punches that didn’t look like they had much behind them.
For all his struggles, Beltran is a strong scrambler and hits hard enough to crack Schnell’s jaw. He survives early submission trouble to stop Schnell midway through.
Prediction: Beltran via second-round technical knockout

[Shagdogy]

Bobby Green is a weird one. He's obviously pretty quick and has good movement but he missed with his punches sooooo much vs. Magomedov. Neither guy was throwing power but Mago landed his jab regularly and cross a good bit too. He was much more accurate. I can't tell if Mago was just that good at dictating range and moving his head or if Green was just not accurate. Either way, Lando has a tendency to get hit so I can see Green landing a good amount more than he did against Mago. Problem is, I don't think Green could have beaten either Teymur or Lando in that fight. Those guys carried an insane pace and high volume output. Unless Green could turn up his volume a decent amount and is much more accurate, I don't see him having the edge over three rounds of striking. Seems like he needs to be able to put Lando away and Lando has shown his chin is solid. Line seems about right in this one to me. Maybe a little value on Green, but I just don't think it's that likely. Should be another fun fight though.

[PaperTrail07]

Green also decides when he wants to fight...sometimes his effort is dogshit....I feel like he has the skills

Bobby Green is a weird one. He's obviously pretty quick and has good movement but he missed with his punches sooooo much vs. Magomedov. Neither guy was throwing power but Mago landed his jab regularly and cross a good bit too. He was much more accurate. I can't tell if Mago was just that good at dictating range and moving his head or if Green was just not accurate. Either way, Lando has a tendency to get hit so I can see Green landing a good amount more than he did against Mago. Problem is, I don't think Green could have beaten either Teymur or Lando in that fight. Those guys carried an insane pace and high volume output. Unless Green could turn up his volume a decent amount and is much more accurate, I don't see him having the edge over three rounds of striking. Seems like he needs to be able to put Lando away and Lando has shown his chin is solid. Line seems about right in this one to me. Maybe a little value on Green, but I just don't think it's that likely. Should be another fun fight though.

[turbozed]

If you look through Lando's career, you'll find that his only victory against a good opponent was against Makdessi. He also hasn't won a decision except for split decision to a regional scrub. He doesn't have the style to impose his game to win decisions against higher level fighters. Hasn't really integrated his funky striking style well with the clinch and grappling game. As a result, when Teymur clinched up with Lando instead of playing at his range, he savaged Lando with knees and Lando had to expend energy to shuck Teymur off of him. He was taken down repeatedly by Teymur as well. He got up quickly because he's a good wrestler, but the fact that he went to the met so often is an indication of how segregated his game is.

Bobby Green is a much better wrestler than Teymur, and can hang with high level strikers like Magomedov and even Barboza at times. He was TKO'd by Poirier but Lando doesn't pour on offense like Poirier, he's jumps in to take a couple of strikes and resets. At range he's dangerous, and both Teymur and Ferguson played into this early before figuring Lando out. I think Green's head movement and slipping can help him avoid the strikes when Lando comes in, and he can stand his ground and look to clinch, shoot a takedown, or just hang around in the pocket and land some punches forcing Lando to retreat.

Lando can get knockdowns and KOs from the strikes he throws at odd angles. There's a chance he lands something huge and blindsides Green but that's not a high-probability path to victory. Also Green is pretty durable and recovers well. He ate a wheel kick from Barboza partially without too much issue. If Green can survive the 1st round and not get hit with something huge, I think he gets in Lando's face, hits takedowns, and just grinds him out. In his last fight with Magomedov he showed a much better gameplan and was interested in scoring points for a decision, going for takedowns late in rounds. If he does the same here, I think he wins a comfortable decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If you look through Lando's career, you'll find that his only victory against a good opponent was against Makdessi. He also hasn't won a decision except for split decision to a regional scrub. He doesn't have the style to impose his game to win decisions against higher level fighters. Hasn't really integrated his funky striking style well with the clinch and grappling game. As a result, when Teymur clinched up with Lando instead of playing at his range, he savaged Lando with knees and Lando had to expend energy to shuck Teymur off of him. He was taken down repeatedly by Teymur as well. He got up quickly because he's a good wrestler, but the fact that he went to the met so often is an indication of how segregated his game is.

Bobby Green is a much better wrestler than Teymur, and can hang with high level strikers like Magomedov and even Barboza at times. He was TKO'd by Poirier but Lando doesn't pour on offense like Poirier, he's jumps in to take a couple of strikes and resets. At range he's dangerous, and both Teymur and Ferguson played into this early before figuring Lando out. I think Green's head movement and slipping can help him avoid the strikes when Lando comes in, and he can stand his ground and look to clinch, shoot a takedown, or just hang around in the pocket and land some punches forcing Lando to retreat.

Lando can get knockdowns and KOs from the strikes he throws at odd angles. There's a chance he lands something huge and blindsides Green but that's not a high-probability path to victory. Also Green is pretty durable and recovers well. He ate a wheel kick from Barboza partially without too much issue. If Green can survive the 1st round and not get hit with something huge, I think he gets in Lando's face, hits takedowns, and just grinds him out. In his last fight with Magomedov he showed a much better gameplan and was interested in scoring points for a decision, going for takedowns late in rounds. If he does the same here, I think he wins a comfortable decision.

Green is always hard to bet because he is such a head case (see Michael Johnson) but when he shows up he can beat a lot of guys. I like Lando's style but I think he is highly overrated and I agree that he relies on early finishes to get the win. Ahh sweet memories of Teymur (+300).

[Hugo de Naranja]

When I think of pressure in this fight, I think of Duq just walking down Willis relentlessly. He's not sprinting in there but he's in your face constantly. He strikes so well in the clinch and Stamann was a bit too hittable there vs. Ware. I agree that Stamann has a great gas tank so this will be hard fought. But I think the difference in ability to do damage on the feet is much too wide. Stamann might land some shots, but nothing too devastating, but Duq can straight up hurt people.

One flaw I do see in Duke's game is that he is a bit chinny as a consequence of poor striking defense. He's been dropped in several of his fights.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If you look through Lando's career, you'll find that his only victory against a good opponent was against Makdessi. He also hasn't won a decision except for split decision to a regional scrub. He doesn't have the style to impose his game to win decisions against higher level fighters. Hasn't really integrated his funky striking style well with the clinch and grappling game. As a result, when Teymur clinched up with Lando instead of playing at his range, he savaged Lando with knees and Lando had to expend energy to shuck Teymur off of him. He was taken down repeatedly by Teymur as well. He got up quickly because he's a good wrestler, but the fact that he went to the met so often is an indication of how segregated his game is.

Bobby Green is a much better wrestler than Teymur, and can hang with high level strikers like Magomedov and even Barboza at times. He was TKO'd by Poirier but Lando doesn't pour on offense like Poirier, he's jumps in to take a couple of strikes and resets. At range he's dangerous, and both Teymur and Ferguson played into this early before figuring Lando out. I think Green's head movement and slipping can help him avoid the strikes when Lando comes in, and he can stand his ground and look to clinch, shoot a takedown, or just hang around in the pocket and land some punches forcing Lando to retreat.

Lando can get knockdowns and KOs from the strikes he throws at odd angles. There's a chance he lands something huge and blindsides Green but that's not a high-probability path to victory. Also Green is pretty durable and recovers well. He ate a wheel kick from Barboza partially without too much issue. If Green can survive the 1st round and not get hit with something huge, I think he gets in Lando's face, hits takedowns, and just grinds him out. In his last fight with Magomedov he showed a much better gameplan and was interested in scoring points for a decision, going for takedowns late in rounds. If he does the same here, I think he wins a comfortable decision.

He did beat Chad Curry who's a solid regional fighter.

[THE_RUDESTER]

If you look through Lando's career, you'll find that his only victory against a good opponent was against Makdessi. He also hasn't won a decision except for split decision to a regional scrub. He doesn't have the style to impose his game to win decisions against higher level fighters. Hasn't really integrated his funky striking style well with the clinch and grappling game. As a result, when Teymur clinched up with Lando instead of playing at his range, he savaged Lando with knees and Lando had to expend energy to shuck Teymur off of him. He was taken down repeatedly by Teymur as well. He got up quickly because he's a good wrestler, but the fact that he went to the met so often is an indication of how segregated his game is.

Bobby Green is a much better wrestler than Teymur, and can hang with high level strikers like Magomedov and even Barboza at times. He was TKO'd by Poirier but Lando doesn't pour on offense like Poirier, he's jumps in to take a couple of strikes and resets. At range he's dangerous, and both Teymur and Ferguson played into this early before figuring Lando out. I think Green's head movement and slipping can help him avoid the strikes when Lando comes in, and he can stand his ground and look to clinch, shoot a takedown, or just hang around in the pocket and land some punches forcing Lando to retreat.

Lando can get knockdowns and KOs from the strikes he throws at odd angles. There's a chance he lands something huge and blindsides Green but that's not a high-probability path to victory. Also Green is pretty durable and recovers well. He ate a wheel kick from Barboza partially without too much issue. If Green can survive the 1st round and not get hit with something huge, I think he gets in Lando's face, hits takedowns, and just grinds him out. In his last fight with Magomedov he showed a much better gameplan and was interested in scoring points for a decision, going for takedowns late in rounds. If he does the same here, I think he wins a comfortable decision.

Get of the pipe homie.
Lando Vannata will come through. I really like him in this spot especially after losing his last fight. He is favorite for a reason and it should show in this fight.

[turbozed]

Get of the pipe homie.
Lando Vannata will come through. I really like him in this spot especially after losing his last fight. He is favorite for a reason and it should show in this fight.

Sure good luck dude. Hope you got a lot down on that -260 opener.

[turbozed]

He did beat Chad Curry who's a solid regional fighter.

Fair enough. 1st round KO looked like. Maybe a Vannata 1st Rd hedge is in order, or a live bet on Green after 1st round.

[Demonata]

Fair enough. 1st round KO looked like. Maybe a Vannata 1st Rd hedge is in order, or a live bet on Green after 1st round.

Green is not winning that fight lol.

[turbozed]

Was really looking for a reason to bet Mara Borella again at underdog odds after she made us some cash against Dudieva. Ended up watching tape and instead really liking Kalindra Faria here.

Borella isn't very technical but has physical gifts. Long reach and appears to be a bit stronger than her opponents. Her striking is extremely wooden, however. She beat Dudieva in her last fight but Dudieva is just a terrible fighter. If you look through Borella's record, she basically loses to any competition over 50/50 (maybe one exception or two, but they were terrible fighters too).

Unfortunately for Borella, Kalindra Faria looks even stronger and more menacing than Borella does. Faria is built like a dude and seems to dwarf her competition. Seems a weight class bigger than Borella in the staredown below (obviously its hard to tell because Faria probably wearing heels and Borella is in a hoody). Faria is a better striker and can probably move her head away from the centerline to avoid Borella's long but very telegraphed monkey arm punches. Faria seems to be able to transition well from striking to a takedown (bodylock, trip, etc.). From there she's able to just maintain top control. She leaves her neck exposed but I don't think Borella can capitalize (at least she doesn't have a choke SUB yet in her career). This fight seems like one of those fights where whichever girl with the poor technique bodylock or head/arm throw hits the takedown wins the round and eventually the fight. I'm thinking Faria can do this for all three rounds. Or she can keep it standing where she also has the advantage.

Oh and Borella is coming in on short notice. -190 might even have value here.

[turbozed]

Tavares line back down to -170. Someone hammering the Leites ML looks like

[turbozed]

Green is not winning that fight lol.

If you had to pick out an assumption I made in the analysis that is most likely to be wrong, which one would it be?

[Demonata]

If you had to pick out an assumption I made in the analysis that is most likely to be wrong, which one would it be?

The x factor where you can't trust him. He's a fighter you don't know if he cares or not each fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If you had to pick out an assumption I made in the analysis that is most likely to be wrong, which one would it be?

"Bro he has no path to victory. I can't see Fighter A losing."
-Some people on this forum

[JIBBBY]

Part 1 - MMA mania -



265 lbs.: Walt Harris vs. Mark Godbeer

Walt Harris (10-5) after going winless in his first three UFC appearances, seems to have finally found his footing, winning three of his last four bouts. All three victories came by knockout, including a savage combination against Chase Sherman that remains one of the year’s best finishes.
All 10 of the wins for “The Big Ticket” have come by knockout, nine of them in the first round.
Mark Godbeer (12-3) had a rough go of things in his Octagon debut, which saw him submitted by Justin Ledet to snap a three-fight knockout streak. He had a bit more luck his next time out, boxing up late replacement Daniel Spitz to pick up his first-ever decision victory.
He will give up three inches of height to the 6’5” Harris, though their reach is identical.
I’m not entirely sure what UFC is trying to accomplish here. We’ve seen Harris against slower, less-athletic strikers in his last two fights, and their response was to put him against another slow, less-athletic striker.
I mean, Godbeer’s a damn sight better than Cyril Asker, but he’s still got no clear avenue of victory. Aside from his 25-second loss to Nikita Krylov, Harris’ struggles have come against determined takedown artists and a man in Abdurakhimov who had the skill and patience to potshot him from range. Godbeer is built to go in and mix it up, which plays perfectly into Harris’ hands. If they’re there to be hit, Harris doesn’t need to hit them more than a few times. He scores an emphatic knockout late in the first.
Prediction: Harris via first-round knockout

125 lbs.: John Moraga vs. Magomed Bibulatov

Submission wins over Justin Scoggins and Willie Gates gave way to three consecutive losses for John Moraga (17-6), though he did put in an admirable effort against Joseph Benavidez. Luckily, “Chicano John” managed to get back on track in June with a one-sided decision over Australia’s Ashkan Mokhtarian in Auckland.
Four of his eight submission wins have come by guillotine.
Arguably the top Flyweight prospects in the world, Chechnya’s Magomed Bibulatov (14-0) tore through the competition in Russia and earned the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) Flyweight title before joining UFC. His debut went as expected, as he overpowered former professional boxer Jenel Lausa for a wide decision victory.
“Chaborz” has submitted five opponents and knocked out another two.
Moraga hits fairly hard, scrambles well and is stupid tough. That’s just not enough against the faster, more technically sound Bibulatov, whose kickboxing outclasses Moraga’s and who has the wrestling to dictate position for all 15 minutes.
Moraga’s only real hope is to catch Bibulatov in a guillotine as he shoots in — his takedown defense consistently fails him and he’s not quite deadly enough on the feet to damage Bibulatov before “Chaborz” gets in on his hips. Bibulatov continues his rise with a dominant decision, mixing in takedowns and powerful kicks to bust up his foe.
Prediction: Bibulatov via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Thales Leites vs. Brad Tavares

In 2013, Thales Leites (27-7) returned to UFC after four years away and promptly won five straight, scoring three stoppages and earning three post-fight bonuses in the process. A 1-3 run knocked him out of the Top 10, but he got back in the win column by outstriking Sam Alvey in April.
Fourteen of his wins have come by submission.
It’s been more than seven years since Brad Tavares (15-4) made his UFC debut off of a solid performance on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 11, during which time he’s gone 10-4. Most recently, he put a 1-3 stretch behind him with consecutive victories over Caio Magalhaes and Elias Theodorou.
He will give up four inches of reach on fight night, though he does have two inches of leg reach on Leites.
I have a dreadful feeling that this fight will be both agonizing to watch and produce a frustrating decision. Tavares is just flat-out not a finisher — it’s been six years and 12 fights since he stopped anyone and that was a degraded Phil Baroni. Leites is aggressive and fun to watch when he’s on, but he also has a bad habit of disintegrating when things stop going his way.
I’ve got it just barely for Leites. He has the heavier strikes and Tavares — even when he’s ahead — doesn’t physically overwhelm people like Krzysztof Jotko or effortlessly shut down offense the way Gegard Mousasi does. He’s not a guy who will mentally break Leites. Power kicks and overall volume carry the Brazilian to the narrowest of split decisions.
Prediction: Leites via split decision

125 lbs.: Matt Schnellvs. Marco Antonio Beltran

The interim Legacy FC title earned Matt Schnell (10-4) the No. 6 rank on TUF 24, where he reached the quarterfinals before falling to eventual winner Tim Elliott. Durability issues have left “Danger” winless in UFC, unfortunately, as both Rob Font and Hector Sandoval knocked him out in the first round.
All but one of his eight stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Despite falling short on TUF: “Latin America,” Marco Antonio Beltran (8-5) found early success in UFC with three straight wins, among them a submission of TUF: “Brazil” 4 winner Reginaldo Vieira. He made the drop to Flyweight following a submission loss to Joe Soto, a move Deiveson Alcantara punished via second-round finish.
“Psycho” has submitted four opponents and knocked out another two as a professional.
Schnell, from what I can see, simply does not have the chin to thrive in UFC. Getting knocked out by Font is understandable — he can thump and Schnell was fighting 10 pounds above his normal weight. Sandoval, though, stopped him with point-blank punches that didn’t look like they had much behind them.
For all his struggles, Beltran is a strong scrambler and hits hard enough to crack Schnell’s jaw. He survives early submission trouble to stop Schnell midway through.
Prediction: Beltran via second-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Tom Duquesnoy vs. Cody Stamman
Tom Duquesnoy (15-1) ran roughshod over the competition in BAMMA, winning the promotion’s Featherweight and Bantamweight titles en route to becoming Europe’s top prospect. He made his long-awaited UFC debut in April and made good on his -1000 odds with a brutal beating of Patrick Williams.
Twelve of his wins, including five of his last six, have come by stoppage.
Cody Stamman (15-1) bounced between Featherweight and Bantamweight while compiling the seven-fight win streak that brought him to UFC. In his debut, he took on former BAMMA champion and LFC title challenger Terrion Ware and used strong wrestling to take home the decision win.
“The Spartan” has scored a knockout in six pro fights, including two of his last three.
This is an excellent featured “Prelims” bout and a very solid test for Duquesnoy. “Fire Kid” is savage in the clinch and an extremely capable grappler, but appears to lack physicality despite his history of competing at 145 pounds. Stamman is the sort of powerful, disciplined wrestler who will force Duquesnoy to prove he can hold his own against a takedown artist who won’t run out of steam in five minutes.
I believe in Duquesnoy. Stamman is worryingly hittable and every failed shot puts him in range of Duquesnoy’s elbow onslaught. Duquesnoy keeps it standing and punishes Stamman’s level changes before ultimately mulching him in the second.
Prediction: Duquesnoy via second-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Will Brooks vs. Nik Lentz

Once the undisputed king of Bellator MMA’s Lightweight division thanks to two wins over Michael Chandler, Will Brooks (18-3) edged Ross Pearson in his UFC debut before things went off the rails. An injured rib cost him dearly against an overweight Alex Oliveira last October and Charles Oliveira’s grappling proved more than he could handle six months later.
He will have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Nik Lentz (27-8-2).
Lentz ended his 4-2 run as a Featherweight after a submission loss to Charles Oliveira, a move that paid quick dividends in the form of wins over Danny Castillo and Michael McBride. Islam Makhachev proved a tougher out, utilizing quality top control to defeat Lentz by decision.
He has gone 11-5-1, 1 NC overall during his eight years in the organization.
It’s hard not to feel that there’s been something missing from Lentz in his recent fights. That frantic, murderous pace just isn’t there anymore and, while his durability remains intact, he’s slower and easier to hit than ever. Worse, he struggled with lightweight wrestlers even at his best; Mark Bocek and Evan Dunham completely shut down his takedown offense and Makhachev threw him around like a ragdoll.
In short, he’s pretty much fodder for Brooks. “Ill Will” is bigger, younger, stronger and more technically adept in both the striking and the wrestling. He dominates on his way to a trio of 30-27s.
Prediction: Brooks via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green

Lando Vannata (9-2) impressed onlookers by pushing Tony Ferguson to the limit on short notice in his debut, then uncorked a “Knockout of the Year”-worthy wheel kick finish of John Makdessi to keep the hype train rolling. “Groovy” earned his third bonus in three UFC fights against David Teymur in April, but couldn’t get the decision against the Muay Thai specialist.
All but one of his wins have come by knockout or submission.
Bobby Green (23-8) joined his Strikeforce compatriots in UFC in 2013 and quickly rattled off four straight wins, most notably a decision over Josh Thomson. The momentum proved unsustainable, however, and he enters the cage having lost three straight.
He replaces the injured Abel Trujillo on just under two months’ notice.
It looks like UFC is cashing out on Green. Get it? Green, like dollars. I’ll see myself out ... Green has not turned in a quality performance since 2013. His solid striking technique and power are entirely overshadowed by his lack of urgency. Vannata may be too lackadaisical in his defense, but he’s relentless, quick, and has shown more variety and fluidity to his striking than Green. He batters his way to a wide decision victory.
Prediction: Vannata via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Pearl Gonzalez vs. Poliana Botelho

Six consecutive victories — one of them a submission of Cortney Casey — brought Pearl Gonzalez (6-2) to UFC, where she debuted against Cynthia Calvillo on the main card of UFC 210. She showed some skill, but was ultimately forced to tap to Calvillo’s rear-naked choke.
All four of her submission wins have come by armbar.
Poliano Botelho (5-1) picked up five (technical) knockout wins in her first six fights, losing only to current UFC contender Viviane Pereira. She was set to debut against Valerie Letourneau in Dec. 2016, but suffered an injury, making this her first fight in over two years.
She stands two inches taller than Gonzalez at 5’8”.
Botelho, at the very least, is damn fun to watch. She’s big, aggressive and knows how to get her hips behind her punches. She’s also hittable and iffy with her takedown defense, which are good for making dramatic fights but not great for consistent wins.
Luckily for her, Gonzalez is submission-savvy but not a particularly strong takedown artist, and Botelho has the anti-wrestling masters of Nova União to help her shore up her defenses. Her power and length give her the edge on the feet, where she lands heavy punches and her nasty spinning back kick to the body on her way to a finish.
Prediction: Botelho via second-round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

I'd stay away from Brooks. Has massively underperformed in the UFC. Could be a victim of USADA. I definitely trust Dariush more

Nick Lentz is gritty and tough, not an easy fight for Brooks.. I'm not sure how I'm gonna play it? Maybe the over props..