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Yes I did UNC, that was a serious brain fart.. This was a little brain fart as I didn't look closely at the fighters first name and the - and + odds this morning...
I'm only human bud and have brain farts, what can I do? I'm not a computer... I cap so many fights and sports daily and I also drink wine at night.. Lol.. Cut me some slack man...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-02-17, 08:44 PM.Comment -
felice herring play was a perfect storm, forget all the research i put into that but there were several factors which made playing her at that time and those odds super easy but a major one was how felice had said several times how she wasn't going to be that chicks stepping stone, think i remember it being someones anniversary of their passing(dad or brother?) also on felice's mind. basically the motivation factors were all on herrigs side.
this time its more of a fade on markos but i just think grasso is a better fighter. we know who markos is, she's a mediocre fighter. like the vid turbo posted, she alternates wins and loses. we aren't 100% sure of the ceiling grasso has yet as a fighter. after an ugly performance i think she can bounce back here. Its not a large play or anything don't get me wrong. I'm not locked into yet, i typically don't bet until after weigh ins so i need to see more of what each lady is saying leading up to the fightComment -
Its only last few year i have been paying attention to what fighters say in interviews. What fighters say in interviews is probably the single best option to collect data on that persons inner motivation, which we all know have a huge impact on overall results.
Last weekend. You got jones handicap at -120, which i bet. Largely on the basis of jones saying, "i will finish Cormier or win even more decisive then last outing. Mark my words". Obviously, many fighters toss around with that sort of trash, so you would need to look closely and evaluate how trustworthy the various quotes from fighters really are.Comment -
Moreno's skillset reminds me a lot of Cynthia CalvilloComment -
I like Soukhamtath in this fight as a slight dog, but if you want to go even safer, I think Soukamtath NSA at -120 is a pretty good deal. If you subtract the Jorgensen injury and Ian Entwistle handing his chin over to spam leg lock attempts, Perez really isn't much of a finisher. Soukhamtath hasn't been finished and seems like a durable guy. He's also fought 5 rounders and had enough gas to KO his opponent by flying knee in the 5th.
Souk has the reach and the striking accuracy. He's got faster hands and better timning. Perez's striking style is a bit energy inefficient, and the ratio of dancing around to striking is a problem for him. Perez likes to throw hooks at close range whereas Souk can trade inside and throw straight punches at range. This in addition to the reach and length will be a problem for Perez. Perez has some nice leg kicks but may not use them if Souk can time them. As it gets the later rounds, Perez's movement will be limited and he might be forced to stand in front of Souk at his range.
Grappling wise, Souk has a good sprawl and is competent to stand up against the fence. He also punishes missed shots with elbows and hammerfists. In the clinch, Souk seems pretty strong with powerful knees.
There's a lot of ways Souk can get a finish here, and it might happen late. So the SNA bet and +1400 Rd3 look good. Straight at + odds is good too but the combined forces of anti-Asian judging and hometown crowd may make it more difficult for Souk to win a decision here.
Here's an interview with Souk where he explains that he's had a good camp this time (debut was on partial camp) and has invested money on nutritionists and training partners. BTW, it seems both Perez and Souk both got to Mexico at the same time, about 4 or 5 days ago.
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this is the only card in August
(not counting Tuesday night contender series)
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they want everybody to buy Mcgregor/ Mayweather end of August
then sept has a card every week i think .... but ya sucks big time... guess il have to start capping some tuesday night contender seriesComment -
agreed it sucks, i was checking out the event schedule the other day and was surprised as well... one free card the entire month is pretty shitty but were spoiled mma fans at this point , just gotta watch the tuesday night fights and wait until the Mcgregor/Mayweather card
september is very solid for ufc cards though, i see some fights i like ... ufc 215 is lowkey a very solid card for exciting fights
DJ fighting Borg, Nunes/Valentina, Dos Santos/Ngannou , Jeremy stephens/ Gilbert Melendez return, Magny/Dos Anjos, Cejudo/Reis
next week after that Rockhold/Branch and Mike Perry/Thiago Alves should be a fun oneComment -
I can't wait until UFC 215. Can finally bet shevchenko. Also so interested on what ngannou line will be.Comment -
Sergio's got sims skills and has fought some good competition. I just wish he had some power! If he did he'd be putting guys away left and right. Sergio better fighter but Moreno might be more dangerous.Comment -
at +150 im taking a shot on pettis.... not super confident but i feel like its more or a less a coin flip scrap so ill take the dog money
i really like niko price guy has a ton of length, but alan jouban is a good counter fighter i see that fight being super closeComment -
Jouban/Price is hard to call. Price has some pop in his hands but his striking is slower and less technical than Jouban. Price got dropped once, maybe twice, by Morono and got picked apart for the whole first round. Gotta figure Jouban is going to land on him. However, Price seems to gain steam as the fight goes on and he's scary if he can stalk and throw his power. My gut says Jouban will land too often and too clean and hurt Price, but Price just doesn't seem like a guy to count out. I'm staying away.
I agree with the Pettis play. Gotta be on the dog if you're betting that fight. Don't forget Sergio is only 23 and has fought a lot of good talent already. Sergio is solid.Comment -
I feel like it's a mistake to match Pettis and Moreno right now. I think it's too early. They could both win their next one or two fights then face each other. Oh well. Gonna be a solid matchup. I think Pettis is just more composed and technically sound.Comment -
185 lbs.: Brad Scott vs. Jack HermanssonMMA Mania write ups coming in..
125 lbs.: Joseph Morales vs. Roberto Sanchez
Joseph Morales (8-0) — the latest young gun out of Team Alpha Male — made his amateur debut at 18 years young, racking up a 6-0-1 record before jumping to the pros in 2014. Seven wins and a regional title earned him a crack on Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” which he made the most of with a comeback knockout of veteran Sean Santella.
At 22, he is more than eight years his opponent’s junior.
Roberto Sanchez (7-0) has spent the entirety of his 2.5-year professional career under the Legacy FC banner, ultimately fighting for the LFA title in June. Jerome Rivera’s undefeated record didn’t daunt him, as “Little Fury” picked up his sixth consecutive submission win and the promotion’s Flyweight belt.
He owns four wins by rear-naked choke and another two by armbar.
Morales has definitely got the goods. He’s slick as can be on the mat and showed some significant power against Santella. The key issue is defense — Santella cracked him good right off the bat and Josh Paiva, whom Morales won the aforementioned title against, took him down repeatedly before running afoul of his triangle series.
Sanchez looks to have somewhat stronger positional control and enough wrestling to get Morales on his back. If Morales is as content to play guard until a submission opportunity arises as he was against Paiva, expect Sanchez to spend enough time on top to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Sanchez via split decision
155 lbs.: Alvaro Herrera vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Alvaro Herrera (9-4) — representing Team Escudero — came up short in the quarterfinals of The Ultimate Fighter: “Latin America” 2, though he did manage to knock out semifinalist Vernon Ramos in thirty seconds in UFC itself. He faced a stiffer test his next time out in the surging Vicente Luque, falling by submission late in the second round.
He owns five wins by (technical) knockout and another three by submission.
After losing to Joe Proctor on TUF 15, Jordan Rinaldi (12-5) hit a 2-4 skid before putting together five straight wins. He stepped up on short notice to face Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night 88 and, though he withstood “Killa’s” punching power, lost by unanimous decision.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
Herrera’s got some solid power, but not much else going for him. He gassed inside of a round against Luque, although that could have been due to Luque’s effective body kicks, and his takedown defense was woefully inadequate. I don’t expect that to change at Lightweight, especially with the aforementioned stamina issues.
Rinaldi can take a shot, grapples well and is quick enough on the feet to avoid Herrera’s big right hand. He mixes takedowns and strikes before ultimately tapping his fading foe late in the second.
Prediction: Rinaldi via second-round submission
Brad Scott (11-4) has alternated wins and losses since falling to Robert Whittaker in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Smashes” final, fighting entirely in either England or Australia. His last fight saw him face countryman Scott Askham, whom he edged by split decision after injuring Askham’s leg.
“The Bear” has knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.
Jack Hermansson (15-3) tore Askham up in his UFC debut to pick up some hype, only to fall to the resurgent Cezar “Mutante” in Nov. 2016. Returning to his home turf of Sweden, he pleased the local crowd with a ground-and-pound technical knockout of Alex Nicholson.
“The Joker” owns eight knockout wins and one via submission to strikes.
I’m still firmly on the Hermansson train. He’s got great footwork, legit power and showed a dangerous ground game against Nicholson. Scott, while gutsy and well-rounded, doesn’t appear to have answers for any of that.
Scott doesn’t have the fluidity or timing to shut down Hermansson the way Ferreira did. Without that, he’s at the mercy of Hermansson’s high-speed onslaught. “The Joker” scores his second consecutive finish midway through the second.
Prediction: Hermansson via second-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Dustin Ortiz vs. Hector Sandoval
Dustin Ortiz (16-7) — who opened his UFC career 3-0-1 with wins over prospects Jose Maria Tome, Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins — currently finds himself in a 1-3 slump. After scraping past the favored Zack Makovsky back in Dec. 2016, Ortiz took on headliner Brandon Moreno and, after eating a brutal head kick, suffered the first submission loss of his career.
Seven of his professional wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Hector Sandoval (14-3) jumped right into the deep end in his UFC debut, a late-notice fight with Wilson Reis that saw Sandoval submitted in 109 seconds. He has since bounced back with two straight wins, including a brutal knockout of TUF 24 alum Matt Schnell in April.
“Kid Alex” will give up three inches of height to the 5’5” Ortiz.
Sandoval’s speed, scrambling and overall athleticism are generally enough to compensate for his lack of size, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Ortiz is deceptively strong and can be vicious in transition, not to mention extremely difficult to finish. He can keep up with Sandoval on the ground and the feet, imposing his physicality to steadily deplete Sandoval’s explosiveness.
Ortiz might be a gatekeeper, but it’s still a gate Sandoval can’t cross. Ortiz spends enough time on top and does enough damage inside to take a narrow decision.
Prediction: Ortiz via split decision
145 lbs.: Enrique Briones vs. Rani Yahya
Enrique Briones (16-6-1) — a member of the inaugural TUF: “Latin America” cast — suffered arguably the season’s best knockout courtesy of a Marlon Vera upkick. “Henry Bure” went on to submit Guido Cannetti at UFC 180, but enters Saturday’s fight having lost two straight to Cody Garbrandt and Douglas Silva de Andrade.
He will have two inches each of height and reach on Saturday.
Rani Yahya (23-9) made his World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) debut a full decade ago, but age didn’t stop him from going 7-1 (1 NC) from 2012 through 2016. The run finally hit its end in March, when he faded late against Joe Soto and ultimately lost the decision.
His 17 submission wins include four in WEC and three in UFC.
At this point, the major question of any Yahya fight is whether he’ll gas out before or after the middle of the second round. If he can’t get an early submission, the fight tends to end with a half-dead Yahya on the wrong end of an arguable 10-8. Luckily, Briones hasn’t shown himself to be the sort of grappling ace Masanori Kanehara, Michinori Tanaka and Joe Soto are. When Yahya inevitably hits an early takedown, I doubt “Henry Bure” makes it back up. The Brazilian veteran re-enters the win column with a quick submission.
Prediction: Yahya via first-round submission
135 lbs.: Jose Alberto Quinones vs. Diego Rivas
Jose Alberto Quinones (5-2) reached TUF: “Latin America” finals before falling to former victim Alejandro Perez, but bounced back with a quick submission of TUF: “Latin America” 2 runner-up Leonardo Morales in New Orleans. “El Teco” returned to action 15 months later in Hidalgo, where he survived a brutal knockdown to defeat Joey Gomez by decision.
This will be just his second fight in the last two years.
Diego Rivas (7-0) fell in the opening round of TUF: “Latin America,” missing out on the Finale but eventually joining UFC with a win over Rodolfo Perez the following February. Fifteen months later, he faced Israeli grappler Noad Lahat and — despite being on the wrong end of an arguable 10-8 first round — came back to knock him cold with a terrific flying knee.
Like Quinones, this will be just his second fight in nearly three years.
Honestly, Quinones has struck me as a solid prospect for a while. The inactivity bothers me, but he’s got solid hands and wrestling to back them up. “El Teco” is still just 27 and is training at a quality camp in Alliance MMA. Rivas, while solid on the feet, doesn’t have the takedown offense or defense to dictate the fight and will be on the wrong end of a power discrepancy. Quinones keeps him off-balance with regular takedowns before lowering the boom late in the first.
Prediction: Quinones via first-round technical knockoutComment -
I'm fading Roni Yahya, he sucks and I honestly don't know why or how he keeps winning fights and stays employed in the UFC.. He gasses in every fight, his stand up is garbage.. One trick pony on the ground.. He is good at surviving in fights when gassed and I'll give him that much..
Briones is nothing special but he was only submitted once and that was almost 10 years ago.. If the fight stays standing which I think it will, I think Yahya gasses and losses by decision like in his last fight. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Enrique-Briones-20939
1807 Briones wins by 3 round decision +320 Comment -
agreed they should be saving the young talent to build up... but the winner of this could possibly fight for a title so this is basically a title eliminator and DJ will mop the floor with either.. thats the bad thing about 25 people are getting rushed into title fights before they reach their peak... Cejudo prime example imoComment -
Sam Alvey retires Rashad Evans I think.. Odds are nice on that play...Comment -
I think Souk SNA makes sense. He is 1-6 in career bouts that go the distance (pro and amateur records combined) and this is in Mexico so close decisions likely go to the Mexican PerezI like Soukhamtath in this fight as a slight dog, but if you want to go even safer, I think Soukamtath NSA at -120 is a pretty good deal. If you subtract the Jorgensen injury and Ian Entwistle handing his chin over to spam leg lock attempts, Perez really isn't much of a finisher. Soukhamtath hasn't been finished and seems like a durable guy. He's also fought 5 rounders and had enough gas to KO his opponent by flying knee in the 5th.
Souk has the reach and the striking accuracy. He's got faster hands and better timning. Perez's striking style is a bit energy inefficient, and the ratio of dancing around to striking is a problem for him. Perez likes to throw hooks at close range whereas Souk can trade inside and throw straight punches at range. This in addition to the reach and length will be a problem for Perez. Perez has some nice leg kicks but may not use them if Souk can time them. As it gets the later rounds, Perez's movement will be limited and he might be forced to stand in front of Souk at his range.
Grappling wise, Souk has a good sprawl and is competent to stand up against the fence. He also punishes missed shots with elbows and hammerfists. In the clinch, Souk seems pretty strong with powerful knees.
There's a lot of ways Souk can get a finish here, and it might happen late. So the SNA bet and +1400 Rd3 look good. Straight at + odds is good too but the combined forces of anti-Asian judging and hometown crowd may make it more difficult for Souk to win a decision here.
Here's an interview with Souk where he explains that he's had a good camp this time (debut was on partial camp) and has invested money on nutritionists and training partners. BTW, it seems both Perez and Souk both got to Mexico at the same time, about 4 or 5 days ago.
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A big if that is, but if not knocked the penetrate out, shouldnt jouban win easily? Mixed with a little bit of Price by KO. That could be a respectable small bet for action purposes...Comment -
Just a word of caution: If you had bet against Jouban to lose to Nelson by KO last fight, you woulda made the right call but still lost the bet because the finish was a club and sub. The way Price can lock up a quick submission, he may choose to end it that way instead of with strikes if Jouban is hurt.Comment -
Yayha is a hell of a fighter......wins rounds then takes off the 3rd lol...Comment
