UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno (August 05, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

I'd be surprised if the slow hammer alvey connects here....he SHOULD get aggressive and walk Rashad down like Glover did....but he wont .....3 round snooze fest...

Sam Alvey retires Rashad Evans I think.. Odds are nice on that play...

[Shagdogy]

Pretty terrible card for betting. I won't be able to watch this one either so I might just sit out. I don't see much value in these plays, but my leans are Pettis, Sanchez, Rinaldi, and Ortiz. All should be close fights. The altitude and judging are big factors... all in all I think I'll likely pass on this card altogether.

[bjpenn85]

Just a word of caution: If you had bet against Jouban to lose to Nelson by KO last fight, you woulda made the right call but still lost the bet because the finish was a club and sub. The way Price can lock up a quick submission, he may choose to end it that way instead of with strikes if Jouban is hurt.

i agree, but nelson is another breed. But you cant really trust any fighter who gets rocked. both sub and Ko may happen. I probably end up not playing at all. Maybe Jouban in a long fakker of an parlay.

[PaperTrail07]

Jouban's win over Perry was pretty quality.... that SHOULD be fight of the night....

[PaperTrail07]

Its tough I agree.....these fighters don't show up looking like themselves in that altitude.....you don't really know what version of the fighter your going to get...

Pretty terrible card for betting. I won't be able to watch this one either so I might just sit out. I don't see much value in these plays, but my leans are Pettis, Sanchez, Rinaldi, and Ortiz. All should be close fights. The altitude and judging are big factors... all in all I think I'll likely pass on this card altogether.

[JIBBBY]

Its tough I agree.....these fighters don't show up looking like themselves in that altitude.....you don't really know what version of the fighter your going to get...

Alot or most fighters train at altitude for these events so they don't gas out.. So it won't be a big factor I don't think. If you know fighters that only trained at sea level for a fact then maybe you pass or fade.. Oh, and if there were short notice call ups for this event then that could apply..

My take anyways with the high altitude UFC events. Fighters take all this into consideration for sure leading up at this level.. If they don't then they are idiots..

[JIBBBY]

I'd be surprised if the slow hammer alvey connects here....he SHOULD get aggressive and walk Rashad down like Glover did....but he wont .....3 round snooze fest...

Rashad is a can and totally washed up and shouldn't even be fighting in the UFC.. Slow footed Alvey should walk him down and knock him out.

1435 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+250

[Rich Benjamins]

Great research here, Turbozed. I put some money on Souk. Watch this interview. He makes a good reason to bet on him. I don't think Perez has looked that great, he backed up a lot vs Morales. Souk has great Muay Thai, think he'll light Perez up. Souk should be the favorite.

I like Soukhamtath in this fight as a slight dog, but if you want to go even safer, I think Soukamtath NSA at -120 is a pretty good deal. If you subtract the Jorgensen injury and Ian Entwistle handing his chin over to spam leg lock attempts, Perez really isn't much of a finisher. Soukhamtath hasn't been finished and seems like a durable guy. He's also fought 5 rounders and had enough gas to KO his opponent by flying knee in the 5th.

Souk has the reach and the striking accuracy. He's got faster hands and better timning. Perez's striking style is a bit energy inefficient, and the ratio of dancing around to striking is a problem for him. Perez likes to throw hooks at close range whereas Souk can trade inside and throw straight punches at range. This in addition to the reach and length will be a problem for Perez. Perez has some nice leg kicks but may not use them if Souk can time them. As it gets the later rounds, Perez's movement will be limited and he might be forced to stand in front of Souk at his range.

Grappling wise, Souk has a good sprawl and is competent to stand up against the fence. He also punishes missed shots with elbows and hammerfists. In the clinch, Souk seems pretty strong with powerful knees.

There's a lot of ways Souk can get a finish here, and it might happen late. So the SNA bet and +1400 Rd3 look good. Straight at + odds is good too but the combined forces of anti-Asian judging and hometown crowd may make it more difficult for Souk to win a decision here.

Here's an interview with Souk where he explains that he's had a good camp this time (debut was on partial camp) and has invested money on nutritionists and training partners. BTW, it seems both Perez and Souk both got to Mexico at the same time, about 4 or 5 days ago.

[PaperTrail07]

They try to JIBBBY but you just cant make up for the difference in altitude.....people WILL be gassing out....

Alot or most fighters train at altitude for these events so they don't gas out.. So it won't be a big factor I don't think. If you know fighters that only trained at sea level for a fact then maybe you pass or fade.. Oh, and if there were short notice call ups for this event then that could apply..

My take anyways with the high altitude UFC events. Fighters take all this into consideration for sure leading up at this level.. If they don't then they are idiots..

[PaperTrail07]

Alvey can be VERY inactive at times....hopefully he gets aggressive for once

[JerseyRobby]

Rashad is definitely a shadow of what he was but the guy was a very good wrestler and was able to grapple penetrate Chael. He has fallen in love with his boxing but I really wonder if with his back against the wall he doesn't just try to grapple penetrate Alvey like he used to and gets away from his predictable boxing.

[Rich Benjamins]

Grasso missed weight. I put a bet down on Markos. Not sure if Grasso can hang at the UFC level.

[UncleChael]

Rashad is a can and totally washed up and shouldn't even be fighting in the UFC.. Slow footed Alvey should walk him down and knock him out.

1435 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+250

You're funny, Jibbby.

[JIBBBY]

We got a pretty good LFA 18 going on AXS tonight.. Main event is worth watching, both these guys might be heading to the UFC in time.. No one started a thread so I thought I'd post the basics and let you guys decide for yourself if interested...

Note - Kelades third fight down just fought Sergio Pettis in the UFC last year and went 3 rounds.. Tyler Shinn is solid also and will be game.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chris-Kelades-51576

LFA 18 - Featherweight 5 rounds - FireLake Arena - Shawnee, Oklahoma - AXS TV
Fri 8/4		3001 Justin Rader		+135
11:59PM		3002 Kevin Aguilar		-175
LFA 18 - Middleweight 3 rounds - FireLake Arena - Shawnee, Oklahoma - AXS TV
Fri 8/4		3101 Chris Harris		-165
11:30PM		3102 Brendan Allen		+125
LFA 18 - Catchweight 3 rounds - FireLake Arena - Shawnee, Oklahoma - AXS TV
Fri 8/4		3201 Chris Kelades		-265
11:00PM		3202 Tyler Shinn		+185
LFA 18 - Welterweight 3 rounds - FireLake Arena - Shawnee, Oklahoma - AXS TV
Fri 8/4		3301 Chauncey Foxworth		+235
10:30PM		3302 Braden Smith		-315

[spurginobili]

Thought I would post pre-fight for a change. My probable plays:

1. Herrera/Rinaldi - Herrera - ITD +360 small

2. Morales/Sanchez - No bet

3. Quinones/Rivas - Quinones - Dec +170 [Hedge - Rivas ITD +473] / Quinones is a good aggressive striker, Rivas is durable & undefeated

4. Briones/Yahya - Briones - Str +195 / Yahya could very well win by sub or dec, but value with Briones & odds don't line up for a hedge

5. Sandoval/Ortiz - Betting live

6. Scott/Hermansson - Scott - Str +215 / I'm betting value with Scott / Under 2.5 +130 - possibly

7. Perez/Soukhamthath - Betting live

8. Evans/Alvey - Alvey Str -135 [Hedge - Evans ITD +540] / Based on Rashad's recent performances, thinking he should just retire

9. Bandenay/Bravo - Bandenay - Str +265 & ITD +615 / I'm betting value with Bandenay

10. Price/Jouban - Jouban - Str -160 / Under 1.5 +145 - is worth a look

11. Grasso/Markos - Betting live

12. Pettis/Moreno - Will decide tomorrow

Good luck guys

[GoBlue77]

Alvey can be VERY inactive at times....hopefully he gets aggressive for once

he said he fought injured last time(ankle) and he's healthy now.

I wanted to bet Evans here but I also think Alvey is the play

[turbozed]

So apparently Grasso missed weight because she got a UTI on her period. She was given antibiotics which is definitely 'no bueno' for performance. The UFC doc still cleared her to fight. Looks bad for Grasso backers unfortunately. Facebook post below

http://imgur.com/a/uhCYU

[turbozed]

These two studies suggest that menses does not significantly affect athletic performance:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17145688
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21088972

Regarding antibiotics here's one study's findings:

Antibiotics may cause fatigue or affect an athlete’s performance.35 However, it is difficult to discriminate the effects of the antibiotic or the illness itself. A study comparing tetracycline, ampicillin, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole to a placebo in 50 healthy male military trainees found that there were no differences in muscle enzyme activity, muscle strength, VO2 max, and subjective fatigue after 3 days of treatment.9 However, since most antibiotic treatment courses last longer than 3 days, it is possible that longer courses could cause a negative effect. Higher fatigue scores have been reported with a greater number of antibiotic courses and total use of antibiotics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4065554/


So it seems that the antibiotics may not effect performance as much until later on in the treatment cycle.

[nyrider88]

alvey is a good bet. rashad is 2-6 in his last 8 fights, the two wins came from the trash talker sonnen and ancient hendo.

[JIBBBY]

Alvey can be VERY inactive at times....hopefully he gets aggressive for once

Alvey does get passive at times, but I'm figuring Alvey just came off a decision loss and will bring it tonight.. Rashad looks so bad in recent fights also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sam-Alvey-35410



Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"
vs
Rashad
Evans
"Suga"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

30-9-0, 1NC
Record
24-6-1

60%
KO/TKO
29%

10%
SUB
13%

23%
DEC
42%

74 in
Height
72 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

75 in
Reach
75 in

42 in
Leg Reach
42 in


Alvey should win this fight as long as he doesn't get grapple focked and put on his back all fight.. I don't think Rashad has the wrestling to do that anymore.. Alvey has improved a bit with TDD and wreslting himself so I don't think he will get grounded and stay there..

The Rashad Evans Dec prop might be a good hedge idea if you wanna play this cautious... I'm probably not though, I have no faith in Sugar Rashad these days..

1407 Evans wins by 3 round decision

+177

[Demonata]

I can't wait to watch rashad Evans and Sergio Pettis win tonight

[JIBBBY]

I can't wait to watch rashad Evans and Sergio Pettis lose tonight

Fixed ...

[Rich Benjamins]

I can't wait to watch rashad Evans and Sergio Pettis win tonight

I'd like to see Evans win. Alvey made me angry his last fight vs Leites, he was so passive. He is just so slow with his feet, but he has incredible hands. Evans has been on a tough road, he needs a win here.

[JIBBBY]

I'd like to see Evans win. Alvey made me angry his last fight vs Leites, he was so passive. He is just so slow with his feet, but he has incredible hands. Evans has been on a tough road, he needs a win here.

Alvey was passive in his last fight, so maybe this fight he'll turn it up a bit.. He is coming off a loss and should be determined..

Speaking of determined...

I just think Rashad is broken, washed up, chin is questionable now, so is that eye of the tiger so to speak. Rashad seems to nice and at peace with himself these days.. That's not always good for fighters.. You need to be hungry and determined.. Pissed off at the world and really wanting to win especially after 3 straight losses.. I'm just not seeing that in Rashad in recent interviews..

Rashad is almost 38 now and his best days are behind him for sure..

[JIBBBY]

Price as the dog at +150 I think is a must try as well against Jouban.. I don't think the O is gonna go.. Jouban is tough and brings experience but you can never go wrong betting on undefeated fighters at the UFC level.. Can't go props as Price could KO, Sub or maybe even decision as someone mentioned in an early post.. Turbs maybe mentioned that.. I agree.

UFC Fight Night 114 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Mexico City Arena - Mexico City, Mexico - FS1
Sat 8/5		1201 Niko Price		+150	o1½ -160
11:30PM		1202 Alan Jouban		-170	u1½ +140

The U1.5 at +140 isn't a bad idea either.. Both these guys bring alot of pop to their punches.. Both have nearly a 70% KO percentage.. Both can finish early on in fights..



Alan
Jouban
"Brahma"
vs
Niko
Price
"The Hybrid"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

15-5-0
Record
10-0-0

67%
KO/TKO
67%

7%
SUB
22%

27%
DEC
11%

72 in
Height
72 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

73 in
Reach
76 in

41 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 114: Moreno vs. Pettis Picks:
Jordan Rinaldi Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Roberto Sanchez Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jose Quinonez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Rani Yahya Round 2 Submission (North-South Choke)
Hector Sandoval Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Jack Hermansson Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Alejandro Perez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Sam Alvey Round 1 KO (Punches)
Martin Bravo Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alan Jouban Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Alexa Grasso Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sergio Pettis Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 114: Moreno vs. Pettis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Herrera vs. Rinaldi
No Bet

Fight #2: Morales (DEBUT) vs. Sanchez (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Rivas vs. Quinonez
Rivas (+175) .5u
Rivas Scorecards = No Action (+215) .5u

Fight #4: Yahya vs. Briones
Briones Round 3 (+1525) .25u
Yahya+Briones Draw (+8500) .1u

Fight #5: Ortiz vs. Sandoval
Sandoval Decision (+435) .5u

Fight #6: Scott vs. Hermansson
Hermansson Round 3 (+1000) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Perez vs. Soukhamthath
Perez (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Perez Decision (+200) .5u
Perez+Soukhamthath Draw (+7250) .1u

Fight #8: Alvey vs. Evans
Alvey (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Alvey KO/TKO (+305) 1u

Fight #9: Bravo vs. Bandenay (DEBUT)
Bravo ITD (+169) .5u
Bravo Submission (+488) .5u
Bravo Round 2 (+500) .25u
Bravo Round 3 (+775) .25u

Fight #10: Jouban vs. Price
Price Scorecards = No Action (+122) 1u
Price ITD (+220) 1u

Hedge:
Jouban Decision (+320) .5u

Fight #11: Grasso vs. Markos
Grasso Decision (+160) 1u
Grasso -3.5 (+175) 1u
Grasso Round 3 (+1850) .25u

Fight #12: Moreno vs. Pettis
Pettis (+150) 1u
Pettis Decision (+320) 1.5u
Pettis KO/TKO (+800) .5u

Hedge:
Moreno Submission (+250) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Ortiz+Sandoval O2.5/Hermansson (-101) 1u to win .99u
Ortiz+Sandoval O2.5/Grasso (+133) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Yahya ITD/Hermansson -3.5/Sandoval (+1094) .25u
Perez Decision/Alvey/Bravo ITD (+1188) .25u
Jouban Decision/Grasso Decision/Pettis (+1541) .25u
Rinaldi Submission/Sanchez ITD/Quinonez -3.5 (+1771) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+282) 1u
Jouban+Price FOTN (+450) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+727) .5u

[GoBlue77]

Alvey will win.

Grasso will win.

[dvb02]

Hugo, can you explain the 2 different posts? Is one post what you actually bet and the other what your thoughts are for the fight?

[kobejoshy]

Hugo's first post is always his overall exact predictions for each fight outcome. Second post is the actual list of the bets (or no bets) he made on each fight on the card. Hugo is the man for always posting his predictions in such a professional manner. It is greatly appreciated! Good luck guys!
Also, ya guys might want to consider playing the Lomachencko Under 9.5 (-175) for his boxing match tonight airing on ESPN. Lomachenko will put on a good show and get if finished around rounds 6-8.

[Demonata]

Smilin Sam is going down today

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo's first post is always his overall exact predictions for each fight outcome. Second post is the actual list of the bets (or no bets) he made on each fight on the card. Hugo is the man for always posting his predictions in such a professional manner. It is greatly appreciated! Good luck guys!
Also, ya guys might want to consider playing the Lomachencko Under 9.5 (-175) for his boxing match tonight airing on ESPN. Lomachenko will put on a good show and get if finished around rounds 6-8.

Kobe's got it. Lomachenko is a fuckingg beast. Would pick him against just about anybody right now.

[dvb02]

Thanks Kobe for the response!

[JIBBBY]

Going Rinaldi by sub in this first fight..

Good luck fellas!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Going Rinaldi by sub in this first fight..

Good luck fellas!!!

Hope you hit it bud. Rinaldi Sub and Herrera KO seem like the most likely outcomes to me