UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira (May 28, 2017)

[Rich Benjamins]

I like the Nicholson bet. He's could easily overpower the Joker. Don't much about Silva. Think the over isn't good in that Volkov/Misha, both fighters have finishing power. It's just gambling, you might as well bet on roulette.

I do like the over on Camozzi/Smith and Musoke/Bojan. I also like a bet on Musoke, I think Bojan has terrible grappling and takedowns.

Silva -170
Nicholson +135
Over 1.5 Volko Misha


So far....thoughts?

[firekillex]

taleb decision -105 is decent

[bjpenn85]

taleb decision -105 is decent

I dont think so. He can easily get a finish against a rookie like enkamp. Im thinking 50/50 he gets a finish or not isnt too far from the truth, so lines probably correct. I would favour a late stoppage slightly, so def a no play.

[Shagdogy]

Musoke seems like the play too just scared he will get taken down...Bojan is really not that good....might have to go with Nico here...

Yeah I like Musoke but that time off is worrisome. I think I'll lay off because of it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think the line is way off for Stasiak. Munhoz has a right leg and a left hand for striking. That's it. If he throws the right leg too much, he will get taken down. If he tries his guillotine (and it's a VERY good guillotine) I think Stasiak will be prepared for it and will be able to get top position. He is very strong and tight in top position and makes it count. For Munhoz, that leaves pretty much only his hands for him to win this fight, which is a tough spot to be in. I think he will hold the advantage over Stasiak on the feet for sure, but Stasiak's chin has never let up on him, and if he keeps it close and gets some time on the ground in scrambles and top position he can absolutely win a decision. 5-1 odds is not giving Stasiak proper respect IMO. I won't commit a lot, but he's definitely an underdog to consider.

Right on the money. Seeing a lot of people who are super confident in Munhoz here. He is the rightful favorite but (-1000)? Really? He was being outstruck by Russell Doane before he caught him with an awesome Guillotine. Stasiak has finishing ability and this could be a close decision if it goes to the cards.

[Shagdogy]

Right on the money. Seeing a lot of people who are super confident in Munhoz here. He is the rightful favorite but (-1000)? Really? He was being outstruck by Russell Doane before he caught him with an awesome Guillotine. Stasiak has finishing ability and this could be a close decision if it goes to the cards.

I'm very impressed with Stasiak's grappling. His top control is very very tight and methodical. Will he be able to get the fight to the ground on his terms? Im not very confident, but Munhoz throws so many kicks and drops under for guillotines so willingly that there's at least an ok chance Stasiak gets on top. The value for Stasiak is improving as we speak still, which is nuts. I'll wait for it to peak and put a little.

[firekillex]

I dont think so. He can easily get a finish against a rookie like enkamp. Im thinking 50/50 he gets a finish or not isnt too far from the truth, so lines probably correct. I would favour a late stoppage slightly, so def a no play.

if its 50/50 favoring a stoppage why wouldnt you wager +200 taleb ITD then? that would be the definition of value if thats your thoughts

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm very impressed with Stasiak's grappling. His top control is very very tight and methodical. Will he be able to get the fight to the ground on his terms? Im not very confident, but Munhoz throws so many kicks and drops under for guillotines so willingly that there's at least an ok chance Stasiak gets on top. The value for Stasiak is improving as we speak still, which is nuts. I'll wait for it to peak and put a little.

Stasiak Scorecards = No Action is up to (+990). Neither guy is a great roundwinner and both tough to finish. Wonder why this price is 300 points different than ML.

[turbozed]

Is there anyone here that thinks that Trevor Smith *won't* be able to easily ground and grind out a win over Camozzi? Seems like Smith should be the favorite here.

[Rich Benjamins]

I've got a small bet on Smith at +170. Both guys suck. I think the good bet is the over. Both guys don't have the skills to finish the other, and they've both been in wars and shown they're tough.

Is there anyone here that thinks that Trevor Smith *won't* be able to easily ground and grind out a win over Camozzi? Seems like Smith should be the favorite here.

[Rich Benjamins]

I have a big bet on Alhassan at -250. I even got him at -160 at the open. I also have Alhassan KO in rd 1 at +100. I dont' see any path to victory for Omari, other than a double leg takedown and winning in top position. But Alhassan is an Olympic level Judoka, so I'm sure he'll be able to defend the takedown. Nobody was able to take Ronda Rousey down with a double leg or Dan Kelly, also Olympic Judokas. Omari is a mid-tier fighter for the UFC, he hesistates, is slower than Alhassan, doesn't have much KO power on the feet. Omari has also been KOed a couple times recently. I think it will be a very rough standup battle for Omari.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I will give Munhoz credit for having the BEST Guillotine in the sport imo. Could catch anyone with that for sure.

[Rich Benjamins]

You make a good point, Camozzi doesn't have good TD defense. Seems like Smith should be able to take him down and keep him there.

In this interview, Smith basically says his whole strategy is going to be to try and take Camozzi to the matt.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3LoVbJp2eE4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Is there anyone here that thinks that Trevor Smith *won't* be able to easily ground and grind out a win over Camozzi? Seems like Smith should be the favorite here.

[turbozed]

I've got a small bet on Smith at +170. Both guys suck. I think the good bet is the over. Both guys don't have the skills to finish the other, and they've both been in wars and shown they're tough.

The only concern I have with Smith is that he didn't seem to go to his wrestling at all in his fight with Sanchez and just got outstruck for 3 rounds. Maybe Sanchez is a real good wrestler, or he maybe Smith has fallen in love with standing. The latter doesn't seem likely since his corner is usually smart about telling him to grind out decisions with his wrestling. The other tinfoil hat explanation is that he got a memo from the UFC asking for less lay and pray. If he uses the wrestling gameplan, I don't see him losing.

[Rich Benjamins]

I was thinking the exact same thing. Then I saw the interview I posted above, where Smith basically reveals that he's going to be using the wrestling gameplan.

The only concern I have with Smith is that he didn't seem to go to his wrestling at all in his fight with Sanchez and just got outstruck for 3 rounds. Maybe Sanchez is a real good wrestler, or he maybe Smith has fallen in love with standing. The latter doesn't seem likely since his corner is usually smart about telling him to grind out decisions with his wrestling. The other tinfoil hat explanation is that he got a memo from the UFC asking for less lay and pray. If he uses the wrestling gameplan, I don't see him losing.

[turbozed]

You make a good point, Camozzi doesn't have good TD defense. Seems like Smith should be able to take him down and keep him there.

In this interview, Smith basically says his whole strategy is going to be to try and take Camozzi to the matt.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3LoVbJp2eE4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

This makes me feel a bit more confident about adding on earlier today. Thanks

[bjpenn85]

if its 50/50 favoring a stoppage why wouldnt you wager +200 taleb ITD then? that would be the definition of value if thats your thoughts

Thats a very good question. i have been tempted, but i dont always bet even in spots where i have an advantage. I make wagers im very veeeery confident in. If i got taleb at +220 - +250, or if i was even more confident in him getting a finish i would have played him. So many 50/50 fights where you can get +130-+150. I wont bet them, its simply not enough edge. I would end up making 10 plays on a card, but would i profit with that strategy? My experience say no, you wont profit making 10 plays. Conclusion:I cherry pick the best play on a card, im not simply betting by default every time i have an edge based on past experiences.

[Ty$]

6 Team Parlay $55 wins $135

Held
Till
Taleb
Munhoz
Circunov
A. Gustafson

BOL guys
Only bet on the card.

[hwgfb]

under bets?

anybody
betting on some under dogs? Reza Madadi +160 Ben Saunders is -105 not under/ maybe Oliver encamp +350 Alex Nicholson +145

[JIBBBY]

You make a good point, Camozzi doesn't have good TD defense. Seems like Smith should be able to take him down and keep him there.

In this interview, Smith basically says his whole strategy is going to be to try and take Camozzi to the matt.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3LoVbJp2eE4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Remember Camozzi isn't that bad anymore. This isn't an easy fight to pick because Camozzi really needs this win after losing 2 straight...I'll still probably play smith by decision myself.. Smith has just gotta nail those take downs.... Camozzi has worked alot on his TD defense since fighting Souza so the Smith take downs are not a given...

Camozzi has the granite jaw so I don't think Smith can pound him out on the ground or knock him out standing.. Smith could and probably should out work him hopefully to the decision if he doesn't get stopped himself by Camozzi late in the fight when tired and because he can't get Camozi down.. Comozzi will pick Smith apart standing if this fight never hits the ground.....

1707 Smith wins by 3 round decision

+230

When I look at Smiths record he does have 9 wins by sub and only 4 by decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Trevor-Smith-51113 The one thing that sticks out for me though is Smith has not had a sub win in 4 years now and all those 9 sub wins were early on in his career and against mostly bums..

Camozzi did fight and prepare for Jacare Souza also not to long ago so I got believe Camozzi's sub defense will hold up against Smith on the ground.. That's why I'm thinking Smith by decision..

[turbozed]

When I look at Smiths record he does have 9 wins by sub and only 4 by decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Trevor-Smith-51113 The one thing that sticks out for me though is Smith has not had a sub win in 4 years now and all those 9 sub wins were early on in his career and against mostly bums..

Camozzi did fight and prepare for Jacare Souza also not to long ago so I got believe Camozzi's sub defense will hold up against Smith on the ground.. That's why I'm thinking Smith by decision..

Hot Sauce isn't a finisher so him by decision makes a lot of sense. However, a big reason for that is that in his UFC wins he was listening to his very vocal corner who told him to hold position and not overcommit. In other words, he was being smart by not going for a finish. He does get off some good ground strikes in top position so that may lead to a sub (not enough power for TKO) if he wants to get his first UFC finish.

With Camozzi, it's hard to know how much his wrestling has actually improved. He was being taken down at will by Leites, and all of his other opponents weren't really wrestlers. I suspect that Smith will be stronger and should be able to take control if he can close the distance.

[Rich Benjamins]

This is Medadi's last fight, and he's taking it on only 2 weeks notice. I bet on Silva. Silva is more of a standup fighter however, and he is prone to getting taken down by Medadi. But on the feet, Silva should dominate.

anybody
betting on some under dogs? Reza Madadi +160 Ben Saunders is -105 not under/ maybe Oliver encamp +350 Alex Nicholson +145

[Pinoy-T-X]

My cray cray parlay

boxing OVER 10.5 spencer vs brook - WIN
Gus
Cirkunov
Munhoz
Till
Musoke/Velickovic OVER 2.5

BOL gents

[Shagdogy]

A little late with my capping on this card, but just getting to Oliver Enkamp. Not very familiar with him, but his tape is very nice. He has that certain "it factor." He always seems to be ahead of his opponents. He matches up well with Taleb IMO too. Both guys are big on distance and kicks on the feet, but Enkamp has the flashier and more varied kick attack. Nordine tends to be low volume, while Enkamp gets aggressive with flurries quite often. On the mat, it's no contest. Enkamp is much more active in both top and bottom position. He's also quite flexible and tricky. I really like what I see from him. It's a terrible spot for him being that he is coming in on late notice and will be pretty undersized by the looks of it, but fighting at home with the solid skillset and the confidence of an unbeaten record? I like him. He's a must bet at 3-1 odds. Can't let a guy with his skills come in at home as that big of a dog without getting at least a small piece.

[JIBBBY]

Damn I wish this card was on tonight .. Morning crap suspect... Locked and loaded..

[turbozed]

A little late with my capping on this card, but just getting to Oliver Enkamp. Not very familiar with him, but his tape is very nice. He has that certain "it factor." He always seems to be ahead of his opponents. He matches up well with Taleb IMO too. Both guys are big on distance and kicks on the feet, but Enkamp has the flashier and more varied kick attack. Nordine tends to be low volume, while Enkamp gets aggressive with flurries quite often. On the mat, it's no contest. Enkamp is much more active in both top and bottom position. He's also quite flexible and tricky. I really like what I see from him. It's a terrible spot for him being that he is coming in on late notice and will be pretty undersized by the looks of it, but fighting at home with the solid skillset and the confidence of an unbeaten record? I like him. He's a must bet at 3-1 odds. Can't let a guy with his skills come in at home as that big of a dog without getting at least a small piece.

So would you say that you're all over Enkamp at 3-1 odds?

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm playing it below... GL everyone because I'll probably still be sleeping when this card cranks up..


Fight #1 - Held by sub
#2 - Til by KO
#3 - Musoke by Dec
#4 - Madidi Straight
#5 - Smith by Dec
#6 - Munhoz by Sub
#7 - Hermasson in a 2 teamer with #8
#8 - Taleb in a parlay with #7/ Hedge for parlay Enkamp by sub..
#9 - Abdul by ko/ hedged Omari by sub
#10 - Sobotta straight
#11 - Cirkuhov by sub
#12 - Gus by KO/hedged Glover ITD

[UncleChael]

Preds win the cup without Ryan Johanson that's all I know boys. GM1 +145.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Remember Camozzi isn't that bad anymore. This isn't an easy fight to pick because Camozzi really needs this win after losing 2 straight...I'll still probably play smith by decision myself.. Smith has just gotta nail those take downs.... Camozzi has worked alot on his TD defense since fighting Souza so the Smith take downs are not a given...

Camozzi has the granite jaw so I don't think Smith can pound him out on the ground or knock him out standing.. Smith could and probably should out work him hopefully to the decision if he doesn't get stopped himself by Camozzi late in the fight when tired and because he can't get Camozi down.. Comozzi will pick Smith apart standing if this fight never hits the ground.....

1707 Smith wins by 3 round decision

+230

When I look at Smiths record he does have 9 wins by sub and only 4 by decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Trevor-Smith-51113 The one thing that sticks out for me though is Smith has not had a sub win in 4 years now and all those 9 sub wins were early on in his career and against mostly bums..

Camozzi did fight and prepare for Jacare Souza also not to long ago so I got believe Camozzi's sub defense will hold up against Smith on the ground.. That's why I'm thinking Smith by decision..

I'm just playing Smith ML because there's not much difference between the price for ML and decision props. Will look to add more to Smith live if he survives R1.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 109: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira Picks:
Damir Hadzovic Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Darren Till Round 1 KO (Punch)
Nico Musoke Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Reza Madadi Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Pedro Munhoz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Jack Hermansson Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Nordine Taleb Unanimous Decision (30-26 x2, 30-27)
Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Peter Sobotta Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Misha Cirkunov Round 2 Submission (Neck Crank)
Alexander Gustafsson Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 109: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Held vs. Hadzovic
Hadzovic (+234) 3u
Hadzovic Round 3 (+2400) .25u

Hedge:
Held Round 1 (+300) .5u

Fight #2: Till vs. Ayari
Till ITD (+131) 1u
Till KO/TKO (+180) .5u

Hedge:
Ayari Decision (+445) .25u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Musoke vs. Velickovic
No Bet

Fight #4: Silva vs. Madadi
Madadi ITD (+708) 1u
Madadi Round 3 (+2525) .25u

Fight #5: Smith vs. Camozzi
Smith (+170) 1u

Hedge:
Camozzi Round 1 (+450) .25u

Fight #6: Munhoz vs. Stasiak
Munhoz+Stasiak Under 2.5 (+120) 1u
Stasiak (+439) 1.5u
Stasiak ITD (+1263) .25u

Hedge:
Munhoz Submission (+180) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Hermansson vs. Nicholson
Hermansson Decision (+128) 1u
Hermansson Submission (+605) .25u
Hermansson Round 3 (+1200) .25u

Fight #8: Taleb vs. Enkamp (DEBUT)
Taleb KO/TKO (+240) 1u

Fight #9: Razak Alhassan vs. Akhmedov
Razak Alhassan Round 3 (+1225) .25u

Fight #10: Sobotta vs. Saunders
Sobotta (+100) 1u
Sobotta Scorecards = No Action (+116) 1u
Sobotta ITD (+363) .25u
Sobotta Submission (+842) .25u

Fight #11: Cirkunov vs. Oezdemir
Cirkunov ITD (-138) 2.76u to win 2u
Cirkunov Round 3 (+800) .25u

Hedge:
Oezdemir KO/TKO (+689) .5u

Fight #12: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Gustafsson Decision (+325) 1.5u
Gustafsson Unanimous Decision (+345) .5u
Gustafsson Round 1 (+400) .5u

Hedge:
Teixeira Scorecards = No Action (+273) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Razak Alhassan/Cirkunov -3.5 (-105) 1u to win .95u
Taleb -3.5/Razak Alhassan (+112) 1u
Smith+Camozzi Over 2.5/Cirkunov (+113) 2u
Taleb/Razak Alhassan (+114) 1u
Hadzovic/Stasiak (+2142) .25u

Prop Parlays:
Hermansson/Taleb-3.5/Razak Alhassan Under 1.5 (+298) .5u
Munhoz+Stasiak WGD/Razak Alhassan ITD/Cirkunov ITD (+348) .5u
Held Decision/Till ITD/Musoke (+862) .25u
Madadi/Smith/Munhoz+Stasiak Won’t Start R3 (+1166) .25u
Sobotta -3.5/Cirkunov -3.5/Teixeira (+1226) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+375) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1083) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+3525) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Cirkunov/Tybura (+107) 2u
Hermansson/Nunes (+250) 1u

[Shagdogy]

Alhassan -228, 3u
Silva -160, 2u
Stasiak +505, 1u
Enkamp +290, .66u
Hadzovic +235, .66u

Might end up adding Till... we'll see in the morning.

[Shagdogy]

Alhassan -228, 3u
Silva -160, 2u
Stasiak +505, 1u
Enkamp +290, .66u
Hadzovic +235, .66u

Might end up adding Till... we'll see in the morning.

Added Cirkunov/Oezdemir o1.5, -115, 1u

[Shagdogy]

My book has pulled the Till/Ayari line. I read he had to weigh in again before fight to be sure he wasn't over 187. Anyone know how close to the fight he has to do that?

[blumpkin]

Playing Musoke over Bojan. Think Musoke is better anywhere the fight goes. Only scary thing is the very long layoff.