UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira (May 28, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hope Glover is ok after taking one of the worst beatings I can remember anyone taking.

I might take Gustafsson to defeat Jones/Cormier in a rematch.

He's the only LHW that is actually improving.

Meh no evasive footwork whatsoever. Tends to fade when he is taking damage or being pressured effectively.

[JIBBBY]

Glad you got the KO there. I think I made a small profit this event. Just glad not to get killed on a weird Euro card.

Glad you survived it.. I probably lost $500 on each book with this event, this event was the biggest loss of the year for me so far in any one MMA event. I was due for a loss like this though.. It's been a while and it happens..

I need to reset, restart after this event and up my MMA capping game.. I've been relying to hard on MMA write ups lately with MLB starting up. I need to start capping better, watching more fights on video for match up comparisons.. I got away from that a bit and got lazy lately and it cost me.. Not like me

[Sanity Check]

Meh no evasive footwork whatsoever. Tends to fade when he is taking damage or being pressured effectively.

I think the reason Gustafsson fades in fights is he covers a lot more ground when he's running away in a big looping circle than his opponent does moving in a straight line. If Gustafsson covers a total of 2 miles with his feet in a 5 round fight. His opponent might only cover half a mile. Gustafsson's big frame, being 6 foot 5, that also makes it harder on him. Its not fuel efficient for someone that big to constantly run around a cage like Demetrious Johnson.

I really like Gustafsson's hands. If he could stuff DC's wrestling, I think he could pick DC apart.

Jon Jones tried to blame his poor showing against OSP on his mom having her leg amputated. But I think its the coke that is screwing him up. He could easily go from GOAT to being a bum.

[JIBBBY]

Marcin Held took that wicked knee coming in and got KO'd with the very first fight.. Was all down hill from there for me.. .. Musoke getting Ko'd in the last seconds of the fight was a killer, Madidi getting robbed with the decision stung me as well.. Omari winning by decision really hurt also... Mesha getting KO'd quickly in that questionable take a dive loss really did me in..

Did hit Smith straight and by decision.. The only big win besides Sobotto straight and Gus by KO for me... Also hit Taleb and Hermasson in a parlay that helped.. Those wins stopped me from losing $1000 on each book...

Looking over now I did lose on average $400 on each book, not the end of the world.. Still my biggest event loss for the year..

NEXT... UFC 212 as I expect to deliver better results.. June 3rd it is!!!!

[Sanity Check]

A few weeks ago, I started out with $40. Worked my way up to $280. Lost something like $180 on Marcin Held. $60 on Nico Musoke. $40 on Cirkunov.

I got wiped out on this card. LOL

I think I'll be back though.

I always get overconfident and start to make bad decisions. Not sure what to do about that.

Its hard to stay mentally disciplined over the course of weeks/months.

[JIBBBY]

A few weeks ago, I started out with $40. Worked my way up to $280. Lost something like $180 on Marcin Held. $60 on Nico Musoke. $40 on Cirkunov.

I got wiped out on this card. LOL

I think I'll be back though.

I always get overconfident and start to make bad decisions. Not sure what to do about that.

Its hard to stay mentally disciplined over the course of weeks/months.

Yep Sanitiy those were all big plays for me on this card also. Madidi as well.. I still don't think they were all bad bets.. Nothing I would have changed on those 4 bets if I capped them til I was blue in the face..

These Euro cards can be straight up tricky.. This card was no different as appears none of us posting really killed it today..

Let's get back to the American cards I say!!!!

[Rich Benjamins]

I had a good night overall. But I put too much money on Alhassan. You always have to be careful betting on the latest hyped prospect. Cirkunov and Alhassan let everyone down today.

Smith and Sobotta kicked ass though.

[GunShard]

Oezdemir was the co main event underdog that was due for a win. Took about 6 fight cards of favorites winning. For anyone that was betting this way lol.

[JIBBBY]

Oezdemir was the co main event underdog that was due for a win. Took about 6 fight cards of favorites winning. For anyone that was betting this way lol.

I surely won't count him out in future fights from this point forward.. He just seems like a goof to me though, but in all reality he's tough as nails and simply just wins..

Noted and checked for future fights....

[JIBBBY]

I had a good night overall. But I put too much money on Alhassan. You always have to be careful betting on the latest hyped prospect. Cirkunov and Alhassan let everyone down today.

Smith and Sobotta kicked ass though.

Good job Rich on the event win. I'm jealous...

[Rich Benjamins]

Thanks Jibbs. I'm taking MMA betting very seriously this time around. Doing a lot of due diligence, and reviewing a lot of fights. I also get ideas listening to people like you and others on this forum. Keep up the good work!

Good job Rich on the event win. I'm jealous...

[firekillex]

negative card for me, taleb decision and gus ITD saved me from going down
took held submission and Ciruvenov ITD as well and had a parlay that got busted right away

oh well i think next time one of these small european shows ill just do a few fun parlays then watch the prospects to see how i like their game for future events..... didnt know half the guys on this card and had 0 time to study film

[UncleChael]

Preds win the cup without Ryan Johanson that's all I know boys. GM1 +145.

Nashville is going rock the Pens tonight! P#98
EDIT: TELL EM UNCLECHAEL SENT YA.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nashville is going rock the Pens tonight! P#98
EDIT: TELL EM UNCLECHAEL SENT YA.

He's calling his shot! Best of luck bud. I'm on 'em too.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 109: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira Picks:
Damir Hadzovic Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Darren Till Round 1 KO (Punch)
Nico Musoke Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Reza Madadi Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Pedro Munhoz Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Jack Hermansson Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Nordine Taleb Unanimous Decision (30-26 x2, 30-27)
Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Peter Sobotta Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Misha Cirkunov Round 2 Submission (Neck Crank)
Alexander Gustafsson Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 109: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Held vs. Hadzovic
Hadzovic (+234) +7.02u
Hadzovic Round 3 (+2400) +6u

Hedge:
Held Round 1 (+300) -.5u

Result: Damir Hadzovic Round 3 KO (Knee)
Fight: +12.52u
Card: +12.52u

Fight #2: Till vs. Ayari
Till ITD (+131) -1u
Till KO/TKO (+180) -.5u

Hedge:
Ayari Decision (+445) -.25u

Result: Darren Till Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-27)
Fight: -1.75u
Card: +10.77u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Musoke vs. Velickovic
No Bet

Result: Bojan Velickovic Round 3 TKO (Punches)

Fight #4: Silva vs. Madadi
Madadi ITD (+708) -1u
Madadi Round 3 (+2525) -.25u

Result: Joaquim Silva Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Fight: -1.25u
Card: +9.52u

Fight #5: Smith vs. Camozzi
Smith (+170) +1.7u

Hedge:
Camozzi Round 1 (+450) -.25u

Result: Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26 x2)
Fight: +1.45u
Card: +10.97u

Fight #6: Munhoz vs. Stasiak
Munhoz+Stasiak Under 2.5 (+120) -1u
Stasiak (+439) -1.5u
Stasiak ITD (+1263) -.25u

Hedge:
Munhoz Submission (+180) -.5u

Result: Pedro Munhoz Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fight: -3.25u
Card: +7.72u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Hermansson vs. Nicholson
Hermansson Decision (+128) -1u
Hermansson Submission (+605) -.25u
Hermansson Round 3 (+1200) -.25u

Result: Jack Hermansson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Fight: -1.5u
Card: +6.22u

Fight #8: Taleb vs. Enkamp (DEBUT)
Taleb KO/TKO (+240) -1u

Result: Nordine Taleb Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Fight: -1u
Card: +5.22u

Fight #9: Razak Alhassan vs. Akhmedov
Razak Alhassan Round 3 (+1225) -.25u

Added Hedge:
Akhmedov Decision (+550) +2.75u

Result: Omari Akhmedov Split Decision (30-27 x2, 28-29)
Fight: +2.5u
Card: +7.72u

Fight #10: Sobotta vs. Saunders
Sobotta (+100) +1u
Sobotta Scorecards = No Action (+116) +1.16u
Sobotta ITD (+363) +.9075u
Sobotta Submission (+842) -.25u

Result: Peter Sobotta Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Fight: +2.8175u
Card: +10.5375u

Fight #11: Cirkunov vs. Oezdemir
Cirkunov ITD (-138) -2.76u
Cirkunov Round 3 (+800) -.25u

Hedge:
Oezdemir KO/TKO (+689) +3.445u

Added Hedges:
Oezdemir Decision (+700) -.5u
Oezdemir Submission (+2200) -.25u

Result: Volkan Oezdemir Round 1 KO (Punch)
Fight: -.315u
Card: +10.2225u

Fight #12: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Gustafsson Decision (+325) -1.5u
Gustafsson Unanimous Decision (+345) -.5u
Gustafsson Round 1 (+400) -.5u

Hedge:
Teixeira Scorecards = No Action (+273) -1u

Result: Alexander Gustafsson Round 5 KO (Punches)
Fight: -3.5u
Card: +6.7225u

Straight Parlays:
Razak Alhassan/Cirkunov -3.5 (-105) -1u
Taleb -3.5/Razak Alhassan (+112) -1u
Smith+Camozzi Over 2.5/Cirkunov (+113) -2u
Taleb/Razak Alhassan (+114) -1u
Hadzovic/Stasiak (+2142) -.25u

Results: See Above
Fights: -5.25u
Card: +1.4725u

Prop Parlays:
Hermansson/Taleb-3.5/Razak Alhassan Under 1.5 (+298) -.5u
Munhoz+Stasiak WGD/Razak Alhassan ITD/Cirkunov ITD (+348) -.5u
Held Decision/Till ITD/Musoke (+862) -.25u
Madadi/Smith/Munhoz+Stasiak Won’t Start R3 (+1166) -.25u
Sobotta -3.5/Cirkunov -3.5/Teixeira (+1226) -.25u

Added:
Munhoz+Stasiak Under 2.5/Razak Alhassan KO (+200) .-5u

Results: See Above
Fights: -2.25u
Card: -.7775u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+375) -1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1083) -.5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+3525) -.25u

Results: 6 Decisions
Fights: -2u
Card: -2.7775u

Live-Betting:
Razak Alhassan+Akhmedov Goes Distance (+180) +.9u
Gustafsson+Teixeira Goes Distance (+200) -.5u
Akhmedov Round 1 (+225) +4.5u
Enkamp (+330) -1u
Texeira (+1800) -.25u

Results: See Above
Fights: +3.65u
Final Card Total = +.8725u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Cirkunov/Tybura (+107) -2u
Hermansson/Nunes (+250) 1u

Results: Cirkunov Loses, Hermansson Wins
Fights: -2u, Hermansson Carries Over
Multi-Event Parlays = -2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Grinded out a tiny event profit of less than a unit on this card while losing 2u on MEPs. Won on Hadzovic + R3, Smith, Akhmedov Decision, Sobotta + SNA + ITD, and Live Betting. Lost on Till Props, Madadi Props, Stasiak + Under, Hermansson Props, Taleb KO, Cirkunov, and Gustafsson Decision. All in all, I was happy with my picks and glad to get a few dogs right. Hadzovic's R3 finish was huge for me but I was hit and miss after that. A few results which really surprised me (Hermansson finishing Nicholson by early TKO and Cirkunov getting insta KO'ed) so I was glad to not get killed on this event. On to UFC 212.

[Demonata]

I lost 5 bets on that card. It sucked ass and wascthe worst ive ever done. Curcunov losing in my gustaffson curcunov parlay was the final nailbin the coffin. Im staying away from the next card. Got to recharge.

[PaperTrail07]

About 50-50 straight bets ......lost all parlays starting with Held cracking 2-3....smh