UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie (February 11, 2017)

**terpkeg** · 02-09-17, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by MMANick

I think Poirier is going to starch Jim. He has a huge athletic advantage and should be one step ahead the whole time. I also see Makhachev winning, but Lentz is a game grinder and won't go away easy.

I really like Uncle Creepy at the price hes at. He's fighting a tough prospect, but Creepy has an advantage almost everywhere here and is going to be the bigger guy. Anybody else liking this fight? It's not long ago that Creepy was one of the divisions best and he only loses to quality opposition.

Gym change, personal distractions, layoff, injuries are enough to steer clear of him imo.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-09-17, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Gym change, personal distractions, layoff, injuries are enough to steer clear of him imo.

Poirier is one of my favorite fighters but I can never lay (-500) on him because of his chin.

Creepy also seems like more of a name than a consistent winner at this point.

**DSSCA** · 02-09-17, 02:26 AM

$500 on Glover at -165

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 03:27 AM

The more I think about this Glover Tex fight the more I'm nervous to play him. I'm getting cold feet..

I'm thinking Glover is 38 years old now, coming off a brutal Rumble KO, and just fighting and beating guys that are suspect before that... Guys like Rashad Evans, Patrick Cummings and OSP.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Glover-Teixeira-4655

Glover is fighting a bigger guy in Jared whom is 32 years old, and only lost one fight to big Shawn Jordan.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jared-Cannonier-78628 ..

I Still think Glover has more skills but just not confident on that chin of his anymore going up against the bigger Killa Gorilla.. I'm certainly gonna look to hedge with Jared by ko prop if I do end up playing Glover....

This fight is sketchy me tinks to bet on on!!!

Main Card

Glover
Teixeira
vs
Jared
Cannonier
"Tha Killa Gorilla"

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

25-5-0
Record
9-1-0

64%
KO/TKO
56%

24%
SUB
22%

12%
DEC
22%

74 in
Height
71 in

205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs

76 in
Reach
77 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

Significant Strikes

4.4
Landed per minute
4.64

44.44%
Accuracy
64.86%

3.62
Absorbed P/M
3.38

57.71%
Defense
66.98%

**richie360** · 02-09-17, 08:00 AM

Cannonier wins this quickly. No major plays on this for me because Glover could easily pull it off. His age, plus I'm thinking he can't absorb damage like in the past anymore. Cannonier ITD.

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by richie360

Cannonier wins this quickly. No major plays on this for me because Glover could easily pull it off. His age, plus I'm thinking he can't absorb damage like in the past anymore. Cannonier ITD.

For better value I think Cannonier by ko rather then ITD... Just can't see Killa Gorilla getting a sub win over Glover, and I doubt he wins a decision either against the arguably more well rounded and more technical striking in Glover..

Glover has decent ground and decent wrestling, he pops right back up when taken down also in fights so I just don't see that Sub happening at all.. Glover either gets KO'd standing and or pounded out on the ground if he is to win I think...

**CaptChaos145** · 02-09-17, 02:39 PM

I think Miller is a value bet (small) at the price of +375.

De Randamie is super explosive and she will be able to take Holly's punches. I think Holly needs to take this 1 to the ground. I lean De Randamie.

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I think Miller is a value bet (small) at the price of +375.

De Randamie is super explosive and she will be able to take Holly's punches. I think Holly needs to take this 1 to the ground. I lean De Randamie.

IHolly could certainly get beat up standing in this fight.. Holly better mix it up and try and use her wrestling and ground as I think she'll be the better fighter in that area...

The striking department Holly does not have a clear advantage at all even though that is her strength.. Bad stylistic match up for Holly IMO..... Considering the fade now..

I've changed my opinion on a couple fights after thinking them thru.. I usually don't do that but I am with this card...

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 03:20 PM

LMFAO come on JIBBBY....your failing to mention one thing.....who has he beat? LOL......he is going from average to title contender in 1 fight......Glover in round 1 fellas...

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 03:22 PM

And don't forget---He MADE THOSE CANS.....he lost to Jon Jones and Rumble....pretty respectable losses IMO.....THE GUYS TOOTH HIT AFTER HE DID.....rumble is a freak....wont happen again....

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 03:26 PM

and Jordan made his way to WSOF soooo...................yeah...

**UncleChael** · 02-09-17, 03:31 PM

If Derek Brunson comes out like how he did against Whittaker, Anderson will put him out faster than Whittaker.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 03:32 PM

Yeah...I expect a timid approach...1 guy will be a second late.......

2/11/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Islam Makhachev -310* vs Nik Lentz
		2/11/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Souza wins inside distance -240* vs Not Souza inside distance
	Pending	2/11/17 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1309 Teixeira wins inside distance -105* vs Not Teixeira inside distance

Originally posted by UncleChael

If Derek Brunson comes out like how he did against Whittaker, Anderson will put him out faster than Whittaker.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 03:33 PM

Glover ITD -105 is up there w Andrade - points lol...

**Shagdogy** · 02-09-17, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Just went to cap Tybura vs. Willis... damn Willis can bang. He's a tank and his hands are dynamite. There's very little footage on him, and he's coming in on super late notice with probably some poor cardio. Makes me think he will come out and look to KO immediately. I don't know what it is, but I like what I see from this guy, and Tybura can definitely get hit. Hoping Willis opens a heavy dog cause he's worth a stab IMO.

Damn +130. I guess I wasn't in on some secret. Was hoping he'd be a much bigger dog.

**UncleChael** · 02-09-17, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Yeah...I expect a timid approach...1 guy will be a second late.......

2/11/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Islam Makhachev -310* vs Nik Lentz
		2/11/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Souza wins inside distance -240* vs Not Souza inside distance
	Pending	2/11/17 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1309 Teixeira wins inside distance -105* vs Not Teixeira inside distance

Silva rolls.

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

LMFAO come on JIBBBY....your failing to mention one thing.....who has he beat? LOL......he is going from average to title contender in 1 fight......Glover in round 1 fellas...

Maybe so Paper, if Glover still has anything left in the tank that is??..

He's creeping up on 40 now and just got rudely ko'd.. I few years ago I would agree with you.. Today I'm not so sure????

Just not as sold as you with Glover anymore as his best fighting days are behind him..

He's meeting a true HW that is 6 years younger and is the killa Gorilla

Always bet on black, and Glover has a mixed track record when facing the brothers in the past...

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Silva rolls.

Silva rolls over in his grave after he goes unconscious... He'll retire after this fight as well is my prediction.. He should anyways if gets brutally KO'd..

The dude is gonna be 42 years old now in a couple months. That's too old as it's a young mans sport.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anderson-Silva-1356

Brunson is a young buck and is probably gonna knock his head off alla Chris Weidman style.....

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 04:29 PM

JC is 9-1 with 7 of his wins coming out of Alaska....This will not even be a test for Glover IMO.....i just dont get it smh.....

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Maybe so Paper, if Glover still has anything left in the tank that is??..

He's creeping up on 40 now and just got rudely ko'd.. I few years ago I would agree with you.. Today I'm not so sure????

Just not as sold as you with Glover anymore as his best fighting days are behind him..

He's meeting a true HW that is 6 years younger and is the killa Gorilla

Always bet on black, and Glover has a mixed track record when facing the brothers in the past...

**TPowell** · 02-09-17, 04:30 PM

Glover is easily the play. He's been KO'd once since his pro debut in 2002.... by the hardest hitter in MMA probably, Rumble. My problem is that Cutelaba took Cannonier down like 6 times in that fight. If he can do that, Glover will dominate him in the wrestling and grind him out easily. If you take Cannonier, you are betting on the stray chance he lands a bomb. That is his only path to victory. I hit Glover at -180 for a huge play myself and have him in a parlay with Jacare as well.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 04:30 PM

And record facing the brothers LOL.....10 years with 3 lost fights.....(jon jones-Rumble-and a Phil Davis Lay and Pray).....I just don't see
Jared Cannonier being added to that list......check the W for Glover now.....

**PaperTrail07** · 02-09-17, 04:31 PM

10000% agree....I really just cant see JC winning the fight honestly....

Originally posted by TPowell

Glover is easily the play. He's been KO'd once since his pro debut in 2002.... by the hardest hitter in MMA probably, Rumble. My problem is that Cutelaba took Cannonier down like 6 times in that fight. If he can do that, Glover will dominate him in the wrestling and grind him out easily. If you take Cannonier, you are betting on the stray chance he lands a bomb. That is his only path to victory. I hit Glover at -180 for a huge play myself and have him in a parlay with Jacare as well.

**TPowell** · 02-09-17, 04:32 PM

I feel very confident about the Miller/Poirier fight as well. I took the fight doesn't go the distance (-130). I feel like Poirier is DOMINANT against anyone that isn't an elite level striker with power (McGregor and Johnson). You have to be able to be a quick and clean counter puncher to take Dustin out and I don't see Miller doing that. Dustin should be able to piece him out pretty easily but if the fight hits the ground, Miller could find a sub or he may land a crazy KO punch since Dustin's chin isn't great but its probably good enough here.

**TPowell** · 02-09-17, 04:33 PM

I put some on Lentz +250 just for value but who knows. I can't see Mak finishing him and those type of fights are always tough to judge when you have 2 grinding style fighters.

**TPowell** · 02-09-17, 04:36 PM

Last thing I have, for those people thinking Boetsch even has a punchers chance against Jacare, keep in mind that Romero tagged him and couldn't get him out of there. Jacare's chin is very solid IMO. Some people may disagree but the guy has heart and anybody that survives that type of shot from Romero can't have a horrible chin. If Boetsch doesn't get the finish, he can't win. I have Jacare ML in a parlay and Jacare ITD in one as well. I like to think eventually Jacare's speed catches Boetsch on the feet and he locks up a sub/finishes with GnP

**TPowell** · 02-09-17, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Not trying to shit on Silva but he's a reflex fighter who never learned orthodox defense and the reflexes aren't there anymore.

yep, Brunson should be highly motivated after that embarrassment last fight. He'll probably shoot at some point if he doesn't get an early KO. Silva's TDD is awful and he doesn't really work off his back either

**UncleChael** · 02-09-17, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Silva rolls over in his grave after he goes unconscious... He'll retire after this fight as well is my prediction.. He should anyways if gets brutally KO'd..

The dude is gonna be 42 years old now in a couple months. That's too old as it's a young mans sport.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anderson-Silva-1356

Brunson is a young buck and is probably gonna knock his head off alla Chris Weidman style.....

Haha yeah right... Brunsons going to be sleeeeping

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I feel very confident about the Miller/Poirier fight as well. I took the fight doesn't go the distance (-130). I feel like Poirier is DOMINANT against anyone that isn't an elite level striker with power (McGregor and Johnson). You have to be able to be a quick and clean counter puncher to take Dustin out and I don't see Miller doing that. Dustin should be able to piece him out pretty easily but if the fight hits the ground, Miller could find a sub or he may land a crazy KO punch since Dustin's chin isn't great but its probably good enough here.

I'm taking DP ITD myself.. I think Jim Miller is a tough dude that can take a good beating but if DP starts peppering Miller standing that's gonna spell trouble.... Miller Time isn't gonna happen if Jimmy starts to become a punching bag.....

DP probably either by KO or Sub at some point is what I'm thinking..

**JIBBBY** · 02-09-17, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Last thing I have, for those people thinking Boetsch even has a punchers chance against Jacare, keep in mind that Romero tagged him and couldn't get him out of there. Jacare's chin is very solid IMO. Some people may disagree but the guy has heart and anybody that survives that type of shot from Romero can't have a horrible chin. If Boetsch doesn't get the finish, he can't win. I have Jacare ML in a parlay and Jacare ITD in one as well. I like to think eventually Jacare's speed catches Boetsch on the feet and he locks up a sub/finishes with GnP

Tim gets rolled in this fight... Jacare ITD is the safe play since Jacare is a beast on the ground but those odds are shit on that prop..

1209 Souza wins inside distance

-240

Souza round 1 finish is doable for the odds...

1221 Souza wins in round 1

+100

The one I like for odds is this - Jacare can bang now and a KO win isn't out of the question.. I think there is value in this prop so I had to try it.. Jacare did just lite up Vitor standing.. 1st round KO.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ronaldo-Souza-8394

Pending

2/11/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1233 Souza wins by TKO/KO +547* vs Any other result

Jacare seems very comfortable standing these days is safe to say!!!..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-09-17, 05:53 PM

Yup I played the Souza KO/TKO prop for 1.5u. Was expecting (+400) and liked it even at those odds.

**firekillex** · 02-09-17, 06:01 PM

jacare is easily top 3 185er on the planet .. boetsch has 1% chance maximum imo

tough prop though jacare will probably want a finish to claim his title shot and he can end the fight by tko/ko or sub but id lean submission after hurting boetsch on the feet

also see glover getting a solid tko in his fight

toughest fight to call right now for me is silva/brunson because it comes down to which anderson and which brunson we see in this fight ... if brunson comes in super aggressive he will be knocked out, if he plays the wresting game he could grind out a decision

**Sanity Check** · 02-09-17, 06:03 PM

This is a bad man doing bad man things.

I don't think Brunson will know what hit him.

**Shagdogy** · 02-09-17, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Creepy also seems like more of a name than a consistent winner at this point.

McCall's losses to Mighty Mouse, Benavidez, and Lineker are worth 10x more than the wins that Jarred Brooks has. If McCall was fighting on the normal 5-6 month layoff, I would have no reservations. Even with the two year layoff he's had, I have McCall capped as a solid fav. He has been in there with the best. He's very skilled. I think he can frustrate Brooks with his movement and variety. His two year layoff definitely makes me nervous to pull the trigger though.

**Unwritten Law** · 02-09-17, 06:16 PM

Everyone looks good in open workouts. Even a washed up BJ Penn had people believing his magic tricks for the public. Brunson will steamroll the GOAT.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-09-17, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

McCall's losses to Mighty Mouse, Benavidez, and Lineker are worth 10x more than the wins that Jarred Brooks has. If McCall was fighting on the normal 5-6 month layoff, I would have no reservations. Even with the two year layoff he's had, I have McCall capped as a solid fav. He has been in there with the best. He's very skilled. I think he can frustrate Brooks with his movement and variety. His two year layoff definitely makes me nervous to pull the trigger though.

Check out some of his interview talking about his injuries. His body is messed up. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to get the job done but I would read carefully.