UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie (February 11, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

See Lentz/Makhachev as somewhat similar to Elkins/Skelly. I've got a small play on the more OG grinder but Makhachev is a legit prospect.

[PaperTrail07]

Awesome , Will do for sure....I ALWAYS post up at Legassi for the fights and I will 100% not miss the next bash....even got the passport even though I couldn't make this one---got it out of the way....

My fav plays are Glover ITD -105-and -160 hit when open (5X)
Souza Inside Distance -240
Mak ITD +343
Mak Round 2: +825
Mak Round 3 : +1450

I might be going for march Madness as well so If I do, Ill shoot you a PM.....

I see this as a parlay card...don't want 1 fight costing me a F load of $$ going 4-1 and losing....hence the Inside the distance...
The forward moves of Maka...I just cant see a fight where he does not end it...

I will play a buncha fav parlays....with those plays as my main...

alright, maybe I'll lay off Lentz..I really don't like betting against these Russian fighters anyhow..they are a different breed.

What are your top plays for the event, Paper?

It was a shame you missed the bash, it was a great time. I was looking forward to watching the UFC event with you and BIGDAY! Barring something unforeseen, I'm planning on going to the next one so hopefully you can make it! Next time you hit up Vegas, if you remember hit me up a bit beforehand and I might be able to make it. As it stands, I'm planning on going March 10-12 and then again sometime during the WSOP for some poker tournies.

[PaperTrail07]

Lentz-if he hangs in there-is going to get absolutely peppered up w strikes....he will not be the one walking forward here boys

See Lentz/Makhachev as somewhat similar to Elkins/Skelly. I've got a small play on the more OG grinder but Makhachev is a legit prospect.

[PaperTrail07]

Fights I am personally staying away from:

Silva Brunson--Too Many Unreadable aspects IMO (motivation ect)
Miller/Porier-Lines seems right---don't like either side that the line given...(possibly miller by dec +650 for action)
Brown Vs Belal...-Good matchup-Good Watch-TOUGH CALL
Mcall Brooks: McAll has the skill but is not motivated (EVER)-so lean brooks but no bet
LaFlare Carn-Line seems legit....Like Laflare but not at that price...Carn By Dec +550 maybe....

Thoughts on these?

[DSSCA]

$500 on Glover at -165

I like some of the points about Glover's inability to take big shots these days and I re thought my play a bit.

Grabbed The Killa Gorilla @ +170 after line movement and was able to play both sides and 100% guarantee profit. Always down for that 👍🏼

[PaperTrail07]

Everyone likes free $.................inability to take big shots......(again....the man was hit so hard he dropped BEFORE his tooth....I think everyone has an inability to get hit with a penetrating truck to the face LOL).....+170 on a 9-1 fighter who went 7-0 PRO IN ALASKA>.....and all their top talent down there....

I like some of the points about Glover's inability to take big shots these days and I re thought my play a bit.

Grabbed The Killa Gorilla @ +170 after line movement and was able to play both sides and 100% guarantee profit. Always down for that 

[DSSCA]

Glover is easily the play. He's been KO'd once since his pro debut in 2002.... by the hardest hitter in MMA probably, Rumble. My problem is that Cutelaba took Cannonier down like 6 times in that fight. If he can do that, Glover will dominate him in the wrestling and grind him out easily. If you take Cannonier, you are betting on the stray chance he lands a bomb. That is his only path to victory. I hit Glover at -180 for a huge play myself and have him in a parlay with Jacare as well.

Trust me, I can understand this play BUT I know Cannonier is watching footage and getting a game plan. He is progressing quickly and with "newer" fighters, you see a lot of growth quickly. Especially in a younger athletic heavyweight. This could be the official coming out party for Cannonier. I played both sides to avoid making a mistake and playing the "celebrity".

Cannonier and The Barbarian for a sick parlay 😉🤑🙈

[DSSCA]

Ended up playing a small parlay on Allen, Brooks, Muhammad, Cannonier and Laflare. $25 to win $369

[JIBBBY]

You and I have better striking than Sasaki. His striking is as bad as I've ever seen.

I agree.. The call is Wilson Reis and probably by decision if I had to guess. Those straight odds are brutal...



Wilson
Reis
vs
Ulka
Sasaki

BRAZIL
Country
JAPAN

21-6-0
Record
19-3-2

0%
KO/TKO
11%

48%
SUB
53%

52%
DEC
37%

64 in
Height
70 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

65 in
Reach
71 in

36 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[Shagdogy]

I like Creepy but this logic sounds a lot like Moraga had against little Pettis

I was big on Pettis in that fight. Way different scenario in that Pettis had fought in the UFC against UFC level guys for a long time. Brooks has to deal with the first timer octagon jitters against a guy who has fought them all. Also, he's undersized. And Moraga was on short notice unlike McCall who is on two year layoff. If McCall wasn't such a question mark due to the long absence I would be all about him in this fight.

[JIBBBY]

Got AXS going on tonight if anybody wants a warm up for tomorrows card.. Thinking favorites myself...

AXS Fighting

LFA 3 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4001 Ryan Spann		+190
10:00PM		4002 Trevin Giles		-270
LFA 3 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4101 Jon Kirk		+400
10:00PM		4102 Brendan Allen		-600
LFA 3 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4201 Alex Black		+130
10:00PM		4202 Thanh Le		-170

[DSSCA]

I'm already on Allen in a parlay 👍🏼💪🏼

[JC2008]

Where's the crack at, yo?!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lentz-if he hangs in there-is going to get absolutely peppered up w strikes....he will not be the one walking forward here boys

After watching a bit more tape on both guys and seeing how bad Lentz looked at weigh-ins I'm switching my pick. Bought back on my Lentz action with Makhachev -3.5. Hopefully I don't get middled by a close decision but I now agree that Mak-and-cheese takes this pretty convincingly.

[JIBBBY]

I'm already on Allen in a parlay 

Allen was a no brainer.. Youth prevailed against the sloppy Mexican Journeyman.. 2 favorites down one to go..

Need Giles here... First round ifffy on the cards so far..... Giles looks raw but seems to be the better wrestler..

[turbozed]

Got AXS going on tonight if anybody wants a warm up for tomorrows card.. Thinking favorites myself...

AXS Fighting

LFA 3 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4001 Ryan Spann		+190
10:00PM		4002 Trevin Giles		-270
LFA 3 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4101 Jon Kirk		+400
10:00PM		4102 Brendan Allen		-600
LFA 3 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino - Lake Charles, Louisiana - AXS
Fri 2/10		4201 Alex Black		+130
10:00PM		4202 Thanh Le		-170

Results in this video:

Looks like Giles won by split decision so bad value there. Allen dominated and Le finished his opponent early in first round.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ze favorites win again

[PaperTrail07]

Yup. Lentz will hang and people will be surprised his chin holds. But he will take an absolute beating tonight

[Hugo de Naranja]

Silva vs. Brunson is a fight that has been extremely divisive among cappers. Seems destined to end up with one side telling the other "I told ya so"

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie Picks:
Ryan LaFlare Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Rick Glenn Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Jarred Brooks Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Islam Makhachev Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Wilson Reis Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Randy Brown Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Dustin Poirier Round 1 KO (Punches)
Glover Teixeira Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ronaldo Souza Round 1 Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Derek Brunson Round 1 KO (Punches)
Germaine De Randamie Round 2 TKO (Knee and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Jacare Souza ($9,500)
Islam Makhachev ($8,800)
Randy Brown ($8,400)
Germaine De Randamie ($8,200)
Jarred Brooks ($8,100)
Jim Miller ($6,900)

Risk: 1u

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie Draftkings 10x Booster Lineup:
Dustin Poirier ($9,300)
Islam Makhachev ($8,800)
Glover Teixeira ($8,700)
Randy Brown ($8,400)
Jarred Brooks ($8,100)
Tim Boetsch ($6,700)

Risk: .4u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: LaFlare vs. Carneiro
LaFlare Decision (+103) 2u
LaFlare/Carneiro Draw (+6500) .1u

Fight #2: Nover vs. Glenn
No Bet

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: McCall vs. Brooks (DEBUT)
Brooks Scorecards = No Action (+115) 2u
Brooks ITD (+300) .5u
McCall/Brooks Draw (+6000) .1u

Hedge:
McCall Round 3 (+1800) .25u

Fight #4: Lentz vs. Makhachev
Makhachev Decision (+105) 1u
Makhachev -3.5 (+130) 2.5u
Makhachev ITD (+343) .5u
Makhachev Submission (+818) .25u
Makhachev Round 3 (+1300) .25u
Lentz/Makhachev Draw (+6000) .1u

Hedge:
Lentz (+175) 2u

Fight #5: Reis vs. Sasaki
Reis+Sasaki Under 2.5 (+130) 2u
Reis Submission (+660) 2u

Hedge:
Sasaki ITD (+780) .25u

Fight #6: Brown vs. Muhammad
Brown (-135) 2.7u to win 2u
Brown ITD (+260) .5u
Brown Decision (+303) .25u
Brown Submission (+700) .25u
Brown/Muhammad Draw (+6000) .1u

Hedge:
Muhammad Round 3 (+2050) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Poirier vs. Miller
Miller (+250) 2u
Miller KO/TKO (+1390) .25u
Miller Round 1 (+1600) .25u
Poirier/Miller Draw (+6000) .1u

Hedge:
Poirier KO/TKO (+240) 2u

Fight #8: Teixeira vs. Cannonier
Teixeira (-220) 1u to win .45u
Teixeira+Cannonier Under 1.5 (+100) 1u

Fight #9: Souza vs. Boetsch
Souza+Boetsch Under 1.5 (-140) 1.4u to win 1u
Souza Submission (-105) 2.1u to win 2u
Souza Round 1 (+100) 2u
Souza Round 2 (+475) .75u
Souza KO/TKO (+547) 1.5u

Hedge:
Boetsch KO/TKO (+890) .75u

Fight #10: Brunson vs. Silva
Brunson (-130) 3.9u to win 3u
Brunson+Silva Under 1.5 (+125) 1u
Brunson Decision (+300) .5u
Brunson/Silva Draw (+7500) .1u

Hedge:
Silva ITD (+176) 1u

Fight #11: Holm vs. De Randamie
De Randamie Scorecards = No Action (-149) 1.49u to win 1u
De Randamie (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
De Randamie KO/TKO (+280) 1u
De Randamie/Holm Draw (+5500) .1u

Hedge(s):
Holm Decision (+250) 1u
Holm Unanimous Decision (+405) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Souza+Boetsch WGD/Brunson+Silva WGD (-111) 2u to win 1.8u
McCall+Brooks GD/Makhachev+Lentz GD (+105) 1u
LaFlare+Carneiro Over 2.5/McCall+Brooks Over 2.5 (+118) 1u
Brown/Teixeira (+153) 1u
Poirier+Miller Under 2.5/Souza+Boetsch Under 1.5 (+209) .5u
Poirier+Miller Under 2.5/Souza+Boetsch Under 1.5/Brunson+Silva Under 1.5 (+644) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Poirier+Miller WGD/Teixeira ITD/Souza Round 1 (+523) .25u
Makhachev -3.5/Reis+Sasaki Under 2.5/Brown (+701) .25u
Laflare -3.5/Glenn Decision/Brooks Decision (+980) .25u
Poirier Round 1/Brunson KO (+1125) .25u
Boetsch KO/Brunson+Silva WGD/De Randamie (+2069) .25u
Poirier KO/Silva KO/De Randamie KO (+5202) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+260) 1.25u
Wilson Reis Fastest Submission (+400) .25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+732) .5u
Jared Cannonier Fastest KO (+1025) .25u
Glenn+Nover FOTN (+1100) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+2625) .25u

[JIBBBY]

Was watching the UFC tonight show yesterday.. Damn Mesha Tate is bulking up after retiring, not all muscle either..... She may end up being a porker like Rhonda Rousey now that she stops training daily....

Cup Cake Tate soon to be Pound Cake Tate maybe?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Best of luck to everybody today. I'll be at the event so I probably won't be posting much. Looking to live bet Anderson and Poirier if either loses R1.

[JIBBBY]

Best of luck to everybody today. I'll be at the event so I probably won't be posting much. Looking to live bet Anderson and Poirier if either loses R1.

Enjoy Hugo!!!

So you live NY an east coast man!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Enjoy Hugo!!!

So you live NY an east coast man!!

I'm originally from CO but I've lived here for a few years. Looking to move back out West sometime soon though

[JIBBBY]

First 6 fights for me.... $100 a bet on average as usual.. Just typing it out this go around..

1) Laflare by Dec

2) Glenn by KO/Hedged with Nover by Dec

3) Creepy by Dec/ hedged with Brooks Scorecards = No Action (+115)

4) Makhackev by Dec.. Small play by Submission also..

5) Reis by Dec

6) Brown straight play..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bitchh ass Ian McCall pulls out at the last minute again!! Retire already you bastard. I think that means all my decision full card props are no action. Not sure about FOTN

[Hugo de Naranja]

Switching up DK Lineups accordingly since I had Brooks in them but WOW penetrate that guy

[Shagdogy]

Wow. Unreal that McCall is out again. With that info... here's my leans. I'll post plays later.

Laflare, Brown, Texiera, Nover, De Randamie, in that order.

Over 1.5 in Silva/Brunson. Reis by sub.

[UncleChael]

Post #1 TELL EM UNCLECHAEL SENT YAH... #TheIRONLADY #ANDNEW

[Kermit]

Bitchh ass Ian McCall pulls out at the last minute again!! Retire already you bastard. I think that means all my decision full card props are no action. Not sure about FOTN

That sucks. I wonder if he'll ever fight again?

[yisman]

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/ian-mccall-pulled-from-ufc-208-fight-with-jarred-brooks-cancelled-021117

Ian McCall will no longer fight at UFC 208 after falling ill on Friday, which has forced him out of his bout with Jarred Brooks. UFC officials confirmed that McCall was taken to the hospital with gastrointestinal issues and later deemed medically unable to compete upon the doctor’s recommendation.

[Thor4140]

I was big on Pettis in that fight. Way different scenario in that Pettis had fought in the UFC against UFC level guys for a long time. Brooks has to deal with the first timer octagon jitters against a guy who has fought them all. Also, he's undersized. And Moraga was on short notice unlike McCall who is on two year layoff. If McCall wasn't such a question mark due to the long absence I would be all about him in this fight.

point taken. I actually never thought Moraga was anything special. Creepy i do think is solid