UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie (February 11, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

I think Miller is a value bet (small) at the price of +375.

De Randamie is super explosive and she will be able to take Holly's punches. I think Holly needs to take this 1 to the ground. I lean De Randamie.

I don't think Miller can win this fight in any area... It is fighting though and anything can happen.. Maybe Miller can land a KO punch early on, or catch DP with something by chance on the ground after rocking him standing...

Those are long shots though.. DP looking really good in fights lately.. Prop odds are fat though on both of these... May consider hedging with one of these..

1427 Miller wins by submission

+1200

1429 Miller wins by TKO/KO

+1390

I see it going the other way though..

1409 Poirier wins inside distance

+105

1433 Poirier wins by TKO/KO

+220

[Hugo de Naranja]

The Under is attractive too. Don't see this one going 15 mins

[TPowell]

McCall fight is tough. Fighting the best male strawweight in the world. Guy is quick, aggressive, and a fantastic wrestler. A little worried that McCall will get frustrated not being the quicker guy. Not laying the money on a guy making his debut though. Might take McCall if the price hits 140 or so

[JIBBBY]

The Under is attractive too. Don't see this one going 15 mins

Probably lands I agree Hugo...

1404 Fight won’t go 3 round distance

-130

[Sanity Check]

Everyone looks good in open workouts. Even a washed up BJ Penn had people believing his magic tricks for the public. Brunson will steamroll the GOAT.

If Brunson were training at JacksonWink, maybe.

From the UFC embeddeds it looks like Brunson is training himself out of an MMA gym he recently opened.

Not sure if his skills will be up to his usual standard.

Check out some of his interview talking about his injuries. His body is messed up. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to get the job done but I would read carefully.

How banged up is Uncle Creepy?

Jarred Brooks last 3 opponents:



Jun Nakamura has the only winning record.

Jun Nakamura's last 3 opponents:

[Shagdogy]

McCall fight is tough. Fighting the best male strawweight in the world. Guy is quick, aggressive, and a fantastic wrestler. A little worried that McCall will get frustrated not being the quicker guy. Not laying the money on a guy making his debut though. Might take McCall if the price hits 140 or so

You're giving Brooks a LOT of credit. See Sanity's post... his wins don't hold a candle to McCall's competition. Also, I have to disagree that Brooks is all that quick, particularly when you consider how much better McCall's footwork is. I only find this fight tough due to the layoff. Without that factor I would be hammering McCall. But two years leads to so much unknown. You have no clue what McCall is gonna have in this fight.

[Sanity Check]

All I could find on Uncle Creepy's injuries.

"I broke my hand in Brazil with Santos. On that same hand, I broke it so badly that I've had three surgeries. My hand is deformed. It doesn't close. It doesn't open. So yea, that was an ongoing thing. I also tore my hip and groin real bad. So a torn hip and groin, I had three surgeries on my hand, and then I had two fights in between there, and then I tore everything in my shoulder. The last surgery that I had was my shoulder. Four torn bicep tendons, two labral tears, and fully torn rotator cuff, and a partially torn bicep muscle."

"I was going to retire. I had given up probably four months ago. I was over it. I was like okay I'm done. This isn't working. Even though I'm training my arm's not working. It still gives me a lot of problems but I was already used to fighting one handed because my hand wasn't working. So now I just have an arm that doesn't work."

I also have two bulging disks in my neck that affect that arm of course. I also fractured and dislocated that elbow back in high school. So that arm, whatever. It's just an arm. That's the bad side I guess. It still works. I can still beat the shit out of people with it.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/7/19...uries-mma-news

Its hard to tell how severe injuries are.

Steve Bosse broke his right hand 12 times.

But he's still knocking people out with it.

[TPowell]

You're giving Brooks a LOT of credit. See Sanity's post... his wins don't hold a candle to McCall's competition. Also, I have to disagree that Brooks is all that quick, particularly when you consider how much better McCall's footwork is. I only find this fight tough due to the layoff. Without that factor I would be hammering McCall. But two years leads to so much unknown. You have no clue what McCall is gonna have in this fight.

He's easily the best 115'er in the world right now from everything I've saw. Hard to believe he isn't faster than McCall

[terpkeg]

Brooks is a high level wrestler and legit prospect. Creepy talking about injuries and being a single dad and needing to change gyms. Light weight fighting is young man game. Writing on the wall here

[Sanity Check]

He's easily the best 115'er in the world right now from everything I've saw. Hard to believe he isn't faster than McCall

Does Brooks fight at 115 normally?

That means he's moving up to 125 for his fight with Ian McCall?

[Shagdogy]

Does Brooks fight at 115 normally?

That means he's moving up to 125 for his fight with Ian McCall?

Yup. He's small.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Speed kills I agree, but experience and veteran skill can compensate.....

Uncle Creepy is still a legit UFC veteran so keep that in mind.. Tough call to fade Creeps in this one but then again Brooks is undefeated and I can't knock anyone for placing their money on an undefeated fighter at the UFC level.. Stiil this guy is making his UFC deput and hasn't fought anyone remotely as good as Creepy..... Like Sanity pointed out in the above post..

Tough fight to go after hard betting wise I think... I'm playing it conservative myself but leaning Creepy as the slight dog....


UFC 208 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Barclays Center - Brooklyn, New York - FS1

Sat 2/11		1801 Jarred Brooks		-135	o2½ -225
7:30PM		1802 Ian McCall		+115	u2½ +185

Ian
McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
vs
Jarred
Brooks
"The Monkey God"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

13-5-1
Record
12-0-0

31%
KO/TKO
17%

23%
SUB
42%

46%
DEC
33%

65 in
Height
63 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

64 in
Reach
67 in

37 in
Leg Reach
0 in

[Shagdogy]

Sasaki at +400 or is great value. I mean, yes, the most likely outcome is Reis is successful with his tight BJJ and gets his back and rides to a decision or RNC. However, Reis was dropped like a sack of potatoes by Ortiz (he recovered quickly) and he is getting up in age. Getting a younger, bigger, reckless/fearless fighter at +400 or better is worth a try IMO.

[GoBlue77]

the spider is rocking the dad bod these days i see. looking at odds i love brunson. public will be all over silver plus odds. but still, i hate betting against the spider. want to see weigh ins still and chew on it more

[Hugo de Naranja]

6 foot tall Justin Willis couldn't make 265. Tybura/Glover parlay becomes Glover ML. Fookin bum

[MMANick]

Creepy at plus odds, I have to play it.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I like most all of the favorites but I do think Lentz is a live dog.

Any opinions on the totals?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like most all of the favorites but I do think Lentz is a live dog.

Any opinions on the totals?

Like unders in Souza, Poirier, Brunson, and Glover fights, in that order

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Like unders in Souza, Poirier, Brunson, and Glover fights, in that order

I agree on the Jacare under for sure...I think he will just steamroll. He is pissed off and wants that title shot and wants to leave no doubt so he doesn't get hosed or put on the back burner again.

I could definitely see the others going under as well but not as confident as the Jacare one.

What are some of your other strong picks for this card, OJ?

[MMANick]

Sasaki at +400 or is great value. I mean, yes, the most likely outcome is Reis is successful with his tight BJJ and gets his back and rides to a decision or RNC. However, Reis was dropped like a sack of potatoes by Ortiz (he recovered quickly) and he is getting up in age. Getting a younger, bigger, reckless/fearless fighter at +400 or better is worth a try IMO.

You and I have better striking than Sasaki. His striking is as bad as I've ever seen.

[PaperTrail07]

Live Dog ....agree.......been on so many fights like him that will come up short.....you do take him, I suggest it's + POINTS

I like most all of the favorites but I do think Lentz is a live dog.

Any opinions on the totals?

[Thor4140]

i always load up on the technically better striker but my goodness Holly hits like a butterfly so this wild type of fighting may succeed here. I'll pass.

[Thor4140]

the spider is rocking the dad bod these days i see. looking at odds i love brunson. public will be all over silver plus odds. but still, i hate betting against the spider. want to see weigh ins still and chew on it more

That isn't the dad bod that is the Brazilian bod minus the roids. Mistic Mac said it was a way of life over there and he was dead on. Every last one of them was on roids. Shogun looks like shit and heck Machida who didn't even look like he was on roids got pinched. These Brazilians and their roids make the Russians blush.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have made a lot of $$$ fading Holm in her past two fights. Think GDR gets the win (and finish) but I'm not loading up.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree on the Jacare under for sure...I think he will just steamroll. He is pissed off and wants that title shot and wants to leave no doubt so he doesn't get hosed or put on the back burner again.

I could definitely see the others going under as well but not as confident as the Jacare one.

What are some of your other strong picks for this card, OJ?

Don't think it's a great card for betting but a few spots I have are:
LaFlare Decision
Reis Under
Brown ML + Sub
Souza R1/R2 + KO
Brunson ML + WGD (hedged with Anderson ITD)

[PaperTrail07]

PEAVY.....Mak is on another level....Lentz t rex arms wont be crafty enough to catch his chi.....he will roll lentz 30-27 around the board

[PaperTrail07]

I've you ever take a bet from me, let is be Glover Tex lol...

Don't think it's a great card for betting but a few spots I have are:
LaFlare Decision
Reis Under
Brown ML + Sub
Souza R1/R2 + KO
Brunson ML + WGD (hedged with Anderson ITD)

[Hugo de Naranja]

I've you ever take a bet from me, let is be Glover Tex lol...

Have him straight for small and in a parlay with Rudeboy. Had you in mind when I placed those. Glover seems better everywhere and after watching more tape, I think he'll be too much for JC. However, his tendency to sometimes stand-and-bang it out when a wrestling gameplan would be a safer and better path to victory is keeping me away from going too big.

[PaperTrail07]

Lentz has the ability to talk down fighters that fade....do agree there....but that's not the situation here IMO

[PaperTrail07]

For sure---he knows big wins get title shots....calling a 1st round tko....guy is a hunter in the ring.....

Have him straight for small and in a parlay with Rudeboy. Had you in mind when I placed those. Glover seems better everywhere and after watching more tape, I think he'll be too much for JC. However, his tendency to sometimes stand-and-bang it out when a wrestling gameplan would be a safer and better path to victory is keeping me away from going too big.

[Thor4140]

McCall's losses to Mighty Mouse, Benavidez, and Lineker are worth 10x more than the wins that Jarred Brooks has. If McCall was fighting on the normal 5-6 month layoff, I would have no reservations. Even with the two year layoff he's had, I have McCall capped as a solid fav. He has been in there with the best. He's very skilled. I think he can frustrate Brooks with his movement and variety. His two year layoff definitely makes me nervous to pull the trigger though.

I like Creepy but this logic sounds a lot like Moraga had against little Pettis

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Live Dog ....agree.......been on so many fights like him that will come up short.....you do take him, I suggest it's + POINTS

word, thanks for looking out buddy

Don't think it's a great card for betting but a few spots I have are:
LaFlare Decision
Reis Under
Brown ML + Sub
Souza R1/R2 + KO
Brunson ML + WGD (hedged with Anderson ITD)

appreciate it, Hugo. I respect your opinion a lot, you really know your MMA.

PEAVY.....Mak is on another level....Lentz t rex arms wont be crafty enough to catch his chi.....he will roll lentz 30-27 around the board

I have not placed any wagers yet. In all honesty, I need to do a little more research on Mak. All I know is that Lentz usually has a path to victory by grinding out a decision or potential submission.

Even though I watch every event and feel like I'm knowledgeable about the sport, with the frequency of events and all the fighters on the roster I tend to confuse certain fighters with other ones(mainly Brazilians and Russians). Sometimes I see a name and think it is someone and then see their picture and I'm like "Oh, that guy". That did not used to be the case years ago but nowadays I need to be careful before submitting a wager.

[PaperTrail07]

Your not alone.....my buddy always ask's is Silva is fighting....sure....there's one on almost every card lol

Makhachev is an absolute STUD>....sleeper....sambo champ like Khabib....Just tosses around good strong wrestler like its nothing....while his list of accomplishments is short in the UFC.. the fighters know this is a top top guy... All jokes aside-Id take him to beat McGregor...

word, thanks for looking out buddy

appreciate it, Hugo. I respect your opinion a lot, you really know your MMA.

I have not placed any wagers yet. In all honesty, I need to do a little more research on Mak. All I know is that Lentz usually has a path to victory by grinding out a decision or potential submission.

Even though I watch every event and feel like I'm knowledgeable about the sport, with the frequency of events and all the fighters on the roster I tend to confuse certain fighters with other ones(mainly Brazilians and Russians). Sometimes I see a name and think it is someone and then see their picture and I'm like "Oh, that guy". That did not used to be the case years ago but nowadays I need to be careful before submitting a wager.

[PaperTrail07]

https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Adriano_Martins_vs_Islam_Makhachev_Full_Fight_UFC_192/10110359

Amazing counter by Martins....I see the fight the same way without any counter ability from Lentz....

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Your not alone.....my buddy always ask's is Silva is fighting....sure....there's one on almost every card lol

Makhachev is an absolute STUD>....sleeper....sambo champ like Khabib....Just tosses around good strong wrestler like its nothing....while his list of accomplishments is short in the UFC.. the fighters know this is a top top guy... All jokes aside-Id take him to beat McGregor...

alright, maybe I'll lay off Lentz..I really don't like betting against these Russian fighters anyhow..they are a different breed.

What are your top plays for the event, Paper?

It was a shame you missed the bash, it was a great time. I was looking forward to watching the UFC event with you and BIGDAY! Barring something unforeseen, I'm planning on going to the next one so hopefully you can make it! Next time you hit up Vegas, if you remember hit me up a bit beforehand and I might be able to make it. As it stands, I'm planning on going March 10-12 and then again sometime during the WSOP for some poker tournies.