UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie (February 04, 2017)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Her ITD at -115 isn't too bad. No way Hill can survive on the ground against Andrade

I took the Under 2.5 for a few units. Pretty much the same price and it covers the possibility that Hill gets a finish. 4 of Andrade's 5 career losses are by stoppage

**TPowell** · 02-02-17, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I took the Under 2.5 for a few units. Pretty much the same price and it covers the possibility that Hill gets a finish. 4 of Andrade's 5 career losses are by stoppage

lose the last half of round 3 stoppage win for Andrade though. I'll have to look at it again. May take fight doesn't go distance instead

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

lose the last half of round 3 stoppage win for Andrade though. I'll have to look at it again. May take fight doesn't go distance instead

Yeah I don't see either of them getting a late stoppage but who knows. To this point none of their combined 15 finishes have come in Round 3 or later.

**turbozed** · 02-02-17, 02:19 AM

Am I the only one not liking what they see in Skelly? His best win was when he got knocked down early against Souza but still pulled out a submission victory. Other than that fight he hasn't looked very resilient and everything he does seems labored. He clearly has the grappling advantage over Gruetz who looks like he has more 'grits' than skill in any particular area. But mental toughness and constant pressure may be enough here. Seems like he's got a better than +400 chance of surviving round 1 and then grinding out round 2 and 3 for a decision win. Not sure by how much though.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Am I the only one not liking what they see in Skelly? His best win was when he got knocked down early against Souza but still pulled out a submission victory. Other than that fight he hasn't looked very resilient and everything he does seems labored. He clearly has the grappling advantage over Gruetz who looks like he has more 'grits' than skill in any particular area. But mental toughness and constant pressure may be enough here. Seems like he's got a better than +400 chance of surviving round 1 and then grinding out round 2 and 3 for a decision win. Not sure by how much though.

Remember this is in Texas so Gruetz will really have to win rounds decisively to get the judge's nod. This might be a good spot to live bet him after R1 if you like his chances

**turbozed** · 02-02-17, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

When people see the size difference on the scales, Hamilton will be (-240)

Why is this line even somewhat close? Hamilton should outweigh him by 25+ lbs and has 5" of height on him. Hamilton is a strong heavyweight, whereas Fortuna has lost decisions to big middleweights.

I don't see how Fortuna wins here unless a submission lands in his lap. Even the submissions he has are against opponents with losing records in regional events (except for one opponent who was 8-5). He has no KO/TKO victories.

Edit: Commentator in one of Ortega's fights in 2014 mentioned that he walks around at 240, so maybe the weight may not be 25+ lbs after all. These small circuit commentators do not sound very knowledgable or trustworthy, so take it with a grain of salt.

**turbozed** · 02-02-17, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Remember this is in Texas so Gruetz will really have to win rounds decisively to get the judge's nod. This might be a good spot to live bet him after R1 if you like his chances

Didn't even occurred to me to live bet this one. Thanks for the tip!

**rsynweap84** · 02-02-17, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Really rooting for female John Lineker this weekend (Jessica Andrade) but no way am I laying (-550) on her

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I took the Under 2.5 for a few units. Pretty much the same price and it covers the possibility that Hill gets a finish. 4 of Andrade's 5 career losses are by stoppage

Yea since she went 115 from 135 she don't leave em to decisions, she beat holy piss outta Penne, and Calderwood became a pretzel. Problem was she wasn't big enough to hang with the other 135's. That said at 115, she doesn't look any different, so she just man-handles dem other gals. Heck her opponent this fight even said it, she wants Joanna, but this will be harder than that fight. Andrade has both avenues to victory, ground and stand-up goin for her.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Didn't even occurred to me to live bet this one. Thanks for the tip!

No problem. Live betting also covers for the possibility that Skelly gets the early finish.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by rsynweap84

Yea since she went 115 from 135 she don't leave em to decisions, she beat holy piss outta Penne, and Calderwood became a pretzel. Problem was she wasn't big enough to hang with the other 135's. That said at 115, she doesn't look any different, so she just man-handles dem other gals. Heck her opponent this fight even said it, she wants Joanna, but this will be harder than that fight. Andrade has both avenues to victory, ground and stand-up goin for her.

Yup. I think she is the worst matchup for JJ.

**poloman** · 02-02-17, 11:09 AM

I do think so too

**JIBBBY** · 02-02-17, 11:40 AM

I'm not really excited for this card for some reason.. Average fights, too many chicks fighting.. Not my favorite fighters. Bermudez and OSP are maybe the best scraps on the card but what ever...

I'll still play it from bottom to top but it's a favorite heavy card IMO.. Not alot of value on the straights.. Prop play and O/U's I will be playing mostly myself.. Still it's MMA and the UFC..

**Snowball** · 02-02-17, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Why is this line even somewhat close? Hamilton should outweigh him by 25+ lbs and has 5" of height on him. Hamilton is a strong heavyweight, whereas Fortuna has lost decisions to big middleweights.

More like a full 60 pounds. UFC needs to add an upper weight class to mens, just like it does with
women who get stuck in the 115-135 gap.

**firekillex** · 02-02-17, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

More like a full 60 pounds. UFC needs to add an upper weight class to mens, just like it does with
women who get stuck in the 115-135 gap.

all they need is to keep LHW 205, add cruiserweight 225 then heavyweight 265 limit
if they added a super HW there would be 5 people in that division lol

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 03:23 PM

All props have been posted for this card.

**Sanity Check** · 02-02-17, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Am I the only one not liking what they see in Skelly? His best win was when he got knocked down early against Souza but still pulled out a submission victory. Other than that fight he hasn't looked very resilient and everything he does seems labored. He clearly has the grappling advantage over Gruetz who looks like he has more 'grits' than skill in any particular area. But mental toughness and constant pressure may be enough here. Seems like he's got a better than +400 chance of surviving round 1 and then grinding out round 2 and 3 for a decision win. Not sure by how much though.

Just know that Chas Skelly was injured going into his fight with Darren Elkins.

Skelly also broke his foot or sustained some serious injury(I don't remember) when he fought Kevin Souza and still won the fight.

**Rich Benjamins** · 02-02-17, 04:29 PM

I won a 10 fight parlay the last card. Here's my crazy parlay for his card:

2/2/17 4:25pm	$5.00	$1,911.07	Pending	12 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Dennis Bermudez -200* vs Chan Sung Jung
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Alexa Grasso -300* vs Felice Herrig
				Pending	2/4/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Abel Trujillo -110* vs James Vick
				Pending	2/4/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ovince Saint Preux -340* vs Volkan Oezdemir
				Pending	2/4/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Anthony Hamilton -190* vs Marcel Fortuna
				Pending	2/4/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jessica Andrade -525* vs Angela Hill
				Pending	2/4/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Adam Milstead +210* vs Curtis Blaydes
				Pending	2/4/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Chas Skelly -270* vs Chris Gruetzemacher
				Pending	2/4/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Ricardo Lucas Ramos +150* vs Michinori Tanaka
				Pending	2/4/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Tecia Torres -280* vs Bec Rawlings
				Pending	2/4/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Niko Price -125* vs Alex Morono
				Pending	2/4/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Khalil Rountree -155* vs Daniel Jolly

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I won a 10 fight parlay the last card. Here's my crazy parlay for his card:

2/2/17 4:25pm	$5.00	$1,911.07	Pending	12 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Dennis Bermudez -200* vs Chan Sung Jung
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Alexa Grasso -300* vs Felice Herrig
				Pending	2/4/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Abel Trujillo -110* vs James Vick
				Pending	2/4/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ovince Saint Preux -340* vs Volkan Oezdemir
				Pending	2/4/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Anthony Hamilton -190* vs Marcel Fortuna
				Pending	2/4/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jessica Andrade -525* vs Angela Hill
				Pending	2/4/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Adam Milstead +210* vs Curtis Blaydes
				Pending	2/4/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Chas Skelly -270* vs Chris Gruetzemacher
				Pending	2/4/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Ricardo Lucas Ramos +150* vs Michinori Tanaka
				Pending	2/4/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Tecia Torres -280* vs Bec Rawlings
				Pending	2/4/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Niko Price -125* vs Alex Morono
				Pending	2/4/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Khalil Rountree -155* vs Daniel Jolly

Could see this hitting. Best of luck

**turbozed** · 02-02-17, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Just know that Chas Skelly was injured going into his fight with Darren Elkins.

Skelly also broke his foot or sustained some serious injury(I don't remember) when he fought Kevin Souza and still won the fight.

Did not know this, thanks for the info!

**richie360** · 02-02-17, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'm not really excited for this card for some reason.. Average fights, too many chicks fighting.. Not my favorite fighters. Bermudez and OSP are maybe the best scraps on the card but what ever...

I'll still play it from bottom to top but it's a favorite heavy card IMO.. Not alot of value on the straights.. Prop play and O/U's I will be playing mostly myself.. Still it's MMA and the UFC..

100% agree. Will be live betting mainly. It is the UFC though and anything possible! Let's hope for some great fights! Also women's MMA has come on leaps and bounds, I use to dread the female fights but recently they are starting to deliver a lot more finishes.

**Rich Benjamins** · 02-02-17, 07:54 PM

Thanks, those are all of the fighters who i think have the best chance of winning their fights.

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Could see this hitting. Best of luck

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 08:24 PM

This is the card of enormous men and tiny women

**rsynweap84** · 02-02-17, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I won a 10 fight parlay the last card. Here's my crazy parlay for his card:

2/2/17 4:25pm	$5.00	$1,911.07	Pending	12 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Dennis Bermudez -200* vs Chan Sung Jung
				Pending	2/4/17 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Alexa Grasso -300* vs Felice Herrig
				Pending	2/4/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Abel Trujillo -110* vs James Vick
				Pending	2/4/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ovince Saint Preux -340* vs Volkan Oezdemir
				Pending	2/4/17 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Anthony Hamilton -190* vs Marcel Fortuna
				Pending	2/4/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Jessica Andrade -525* vs Angela Hill
				Pending	2/4/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Adam Milstead +210* vs Curtis Blaydes
				Pending	2/4/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Chas Skelly -270* vs Chris Gruetzemacher
				Pending	2/4/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Ricardo Lucas Ramos +150* vs Michinori Tanaka
				Pending	2/4/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Tecia Torres -280* vs Bec Rawlings
				Pending	2/4/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Niko Price -125* vs Alex Morono
				Pending	2/4/17 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Khalil Rountree -155* vs Daniel Jolly

I only got 1 problem with this...and it's Rountree.

Truth be told both these guys suck, I mean these guys are dumpster fire quality fighters next to just about any others in the UFC. However, when I look at Rountree he's just a blazing pile o sh!t...at least Jolly made a very capable Cirkunov work for 5 minutes on the ground before going out by TKO. Sh!tpile Rountree on the other hand had 0 answer to Sanchez, and while landing a dangerous punch on Pedro, had an utter look of horror when Pedro wrapped him up and took him down immediately afterwords. With good reason, because he has literally no ground game whatsoever. Bad as Rountree is tho, it might only take one punch on Jolly, but if he can't connect before the takedown I can't see Rountree taking it.

**Rich Benjamins** · 02-02-17, 09:26 PM

I wouldn't bet on the Rountree/Jolly fight except in a parlay. I think you're right about him. But Jolly isn't that great at takedowns, he mostly looks to keep it standing. Rountree is a superior standup fighter and should win the standup game and possibly get a 1st round KO.

**rsynweap84** · 02-02-17, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I wouldn't bet on the Rountree/Jolly fight except in a parlay. I think you're right about him. But Jolly isn't that great at takedowns, he mostly looks to keep it standing. Rountree is a superior standup fighter and should win the standup game and possibly get a 1st round KO.

Aye I that's how I'm playin' this fight, Jolly isn't great at takedowns, but Rountree isn't great at stopping them either. Jolly doesn't mind gettin' in the clinch and fighting, though I don't know I'd reccomend it, but if he does close distance he won't have trouble gettin' him down. Still, Rountree did almost KO Pedro, so the power is there, but after round 1 if he had to work at all, he's gonna be gassed. At least the props are workable though.

Sat 2/4

2105 Jolly wins inside distance

+245

Rountree wins by TKO/KO

+105

Rountree wins in round 1

+175

I think these are they way this fight shapes up, think money can be made here.

**Sanity Check** · 02-02-17, 11:35 PM

Vegas Dave has some super bowl $$$ contests going ^ info in description.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-02-17, 11:38 PM

Thinking Oezdemir might miss weight. He has to cut 35 pounds in 2 weeks

**Rich Benjamins** · 02-02-17, 11:42 PM

Isn't Vegas Dave broke after betting $1 million on Tate against Nunes? What an ignorant bet that was.

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Vegas Dave has some super bowl $$$ contests going ^ info in description.

**TPowell** · 02-03-17, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Thinking Oezdemir might miss weight. He has to cut 35 pounds in 2 weeks

curious about that myself. Hate laying that price on OSP though. Hands always low and such but OSP could easily kill him on the ground

**TPowell** · 02-03-17, 01:50 AM

Anybody know much about Daniel Jolly? Short notice debut against Misha Cirkunov in September 2015 and hasn't even been SCHEDULED to fight since then. Couple different possibilities IMO

1. Jolly has been waiting for a really good matchup for him
2. Jolly isn't training full time (has another job) and just wanted to get on this Texas card since he lives/trains in Texas

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-03-17, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

curious about that myself. Hate laying that price on OSP though. Hands always low and such but OSP could easily kill him on the ground

Yeah absolutely no value on OSP ML. I'd say play the dog, a prop or pass

**TPowell** · 02-03-17, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Yeah absolutely no value on OSP ML. I'd say play the dog, a prop or pass

Thought about OSP ITD to be honest. SUB price is +400 which isn't bad either.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-03-17, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Thought about OSP ITD to be honest. SUB price is +400 which isn't bad either.

Yeah I took OSP R1 and Sub but couldn't fault you for talking the ITD.

**TPowell** · 02-03-17, 02:26 AM

Just saw that Jolly spent time at American Top Team for this fight and they'll be cornering him which is a BIG step up from Gracie Barra Woodlands. Listening to this 30 min. interview now with him. Apparently he was a D1 RB at Colorado in college. Spent around 8 weeks at ATT and stayed in the dorms there as well. Talks about his wife taking on a lot of financial burdens to help him train which is a great sign. Says he's not naive to think you can only be half in and expect to do well. Had a major knee surgery that kept him out this long. I don't like the fact that he doesn't have a REAL MMA background and has that Kuk Sool Won background though. Doesn't cut much weight to get down to 205 either. Says he averages around 215-220 normally at his worst. Guy is the whitest sounding black guy ever and for a D1 athlete from Texas, is VERY chill and laid back.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-03-17, 03:13 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Just saw that Jolly spent time at American Top Team for this fight and they'll be cornering him which is a BIG step up from Gracie Barra Woodlands. Listening to this 30 min. interview now with him. Apparently he was a D1 RB at Colorado in college. Spent around 8 weeks at ATT and stayed in the dorms there as well. Talks about his wife taking on a lot of financial burdens to help him train which is a great sign. Says he's not naive to think you can only be half in and expect to do well. Had a major knee surgery that kept him out this long. I don't like the fact that he doesn't have a REAL MMA background and has that Kuk Sool Won background though. Doesn't cut much weight to get down to 205 either. Says he averages around 215-220 normally at his worst. Guy is the whitest sounding black guy ever and for a D1 athlete from Texas, is VERY chill and laid back.

Thanks for the info. Dude legit sounds like Urkle