Can't wait for the Korean Zombie's return! I don't think Dennis will be able to keep him down if he does bring him to the ground. The standup goes to KZ. I can see a late submission victory for KZ, 3rd-4th round.
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Even though it's a 5 rounder I think Bermudez wins this by decision.. May still hedge with Zombie buy Sub or ITD though.. My take on the scrap..
Thinking Bermudez puts zombie on his back most of the fight.. Zombie is hard to finish. He's only been stopped twice in 17 pro fights and by KO....The smaller guys typically go the distance in big fights like this as well.. End result most likely is -
1011 Bermudez wins by 5 round decision +157
We've seen Bermudez get finished before and his 4 losses came by way of sub only one loss by KO....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065 So the sub hedge may be in order...
Zombie does have 8 of his 13 wins by sub.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chan-Sung-Jung-36155.. Couple by KO also.. Safe hedge is ITD, but likely could finish by SUB.. Doubt Zombie can with this fight by decision against the better wrestler..
1005 Sung Jung wins inside distance1035 Sung Jung wins by submission+281 +410 Comment -
I like bermudez on the points cap I think. I can't see zombie winning 2/5 roundsComment -
It's fight night from the BASH!!
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The zombie by submission for some actionComment -
Thanks for this link. I actually was thinking Milstead had a shot. His TDD has looked decent and Blaydes has been a bit sloppy in scrambles. While Blades is obviously more explosive, Milstead has that fighter attitude and a bit more grit on the feet I think. I could see him being able to grind a close decision by stuffing the TD. However, now that I watch this video you're right, too many strikes. Laying off.Comment -
In Punta cana at the bash..Will be watching the event with BIGDAY and everyone tonight!
Best of luck on the wagers tonight, fellas!Comment -
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UFC Fight Night 104: Bermudez vs. Sung Jung Picks:
Khalil Rountree Round 1 KO (Punch)
Alex Morono Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Tecia Torres Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Ricardo Lucas Ramos Round 3 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Chas Skelly Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Curtis Blaydes Round 2 TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Jessica Andrade Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Anthony Hamilton Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Ovince Saint Preux Round 1 KO (Punches)
Abel Trujillo Round 1 KO (Punches)
Alexa Grasso Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)Comment -
UFC FN 104: Bermudez vs. Sung Jung Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Alexa Grasso ($9,100)
Curtis Blaydes ($8,900)
Anthony Hamilton ($8,700)
Dennis Bermudez ($8,400)
Ricardo Lucas Ramos ($7,600)
Volkan Oezdemir ($7,000)
UFC FN 104: Bermudez vs. Sung Jung Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Jessica Andrade ($9,300)
Curtis Blaydes ($8,900)
Chas Skelly ($8,800)
Abel Trujillo ($8,100)
Ricardo Ramos ($7,600)
Felice Herrig ($7,100)Comment -
UFC Fight Night 104: Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Rountree vs. Jolly
Rountree/Jolly Draw (+7500) .2u
Fight #2: Morono vs. Price
Morono (+110) 2u
Morono Decision (+290) .5u
Morono Round 3 (+1050) .25u
Morono/Price Draw (+6500) .1u
Hedge:
Price Submission (+700) .25u
Fox Sports 1 Prelims:
Fight #3: Torres vs. Rawlings
Torres Decision (-126) 5.04u to win 4u
Torres -3.5 (+150) 3u
Torres Round 3 (+1350) .75u
Fight #4: Tanaka vs. Ramos (DEBUT)
Ramos (+175) 1u
Ramos Submission (+450) .5u
Ramos Decision (+750) .25u
Ramos/Tanaka Draw (+7000) .1u
Fight #5: Skelly vs. Gruetzemacher
Skelly Submission (+160) 1u
Skelly/Gruetzemacher Draw (+7500) .1u
Fight #6: Blaydes vs. Milstead
Blaydes ITD (+100) 2u
Blaydes Round 2 (+475) .5u
Blaydes Round 3 (+1000) .25u
Blaydes/Milstead Draw (+7500) .1u
Hedge:
Milstead KO/TKO (+450) 1u
Main Card:
Fight #7: Andrade vs. Hill
Andrade+Hill Under 2.5 (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
Andrade KO/TKO (+465) 1u
Hedge:
Hill Submission (+2150) .25u
Fight #8: Hamilton vs. Fortuna (DEBUT)
Hamilton -3.5 (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
Hamilton Decision (+314) .5u
Hedge:
Fortuna Submission (+415) .25u
Fight #9: Saint Preux vs. Oezdemir (DEBUT)
Saint Preux+Oezdemir Under 1.5 (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Saint Preux (+170) 1u
Saint Preux Submission (+450) .5u
Fight #10: Vick vs. Trujillo
Trujillo (-105) 5.25u to win 5u
Trujillo KO/TKO (+290) 1u
Trujillo Round 1 (+350) .5u
Trujillo Round 2 (+650) .25u
Trujillo/Vick Draw (+7000) .3u
Hedge(s):
Vick Decision (+343) 1u
Vick Submission (+385) 1.5u
Fight #11: Grasso vs. Herrig
Grasso -3.5 (-130) 5.2u to win 4u
Grasso Decision (+101) 7.5u
Grasso KO/TKO (+360) 1u
Grasso Round 3 (+1225) 1u
Hedge(s):
Herrig Submission (+925) 1.5u
Herrig Round 1 (+1125) .5u
Fight #12: Bermudez vs. Sung Jung
Bermudez (-150) 4.5u to win 3u
Bermudez -5.5 (+120) 1u
Bermudez/Jung Draw (+7000) .3u
Hedge(s):
Sung Jung Submission (+450) .5u
Sung Jung KO/TKO (+841) .25u
Straight Parlays:
Torres+Rawlings Over 2.5/Grasso (-124) 1u to win .81u
Hamilton/Grasso (+106) 2u
Skelly/Blaydes (+113) 2u
Torres+Rawlings Over 2.5/Grasso -3.5 (+140) 2u
Prop Parlays:
Torres Decision/Grasso Decision (+260) .5u
Morono SNA/Torres SNA/Trujillo SNA (+459) 1u
Torres -3.5/Saint Preux+Oezdemir Under 1.5/Bermudez+Jung WGD (+727) .25u
Ramos ITD/Skelly ITD/Blaydes ITD (+1198) .25u
Trujillo KO/Grasso Decision/Bermudez Decision (+1634) .25u
Andrade Round 1/Hamilton Round 1/Saint Preux+Oezdemir Under 1.5 (+2026) .25u
Jolly+Rountree Under 1.5/Price Submission/Torres Decision (+2253) .25u
Gruetzemacher Decision/Milstead ITD (+3102) .25u
Ramos Submission/Milstead KO (+3200) .25u
Trujillo Decision/Grasso KO (+3567) .25u
Saint Preux Submission/Vick Submission/Sung Jung Submission (+13238) .1u
Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+146) 1.25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+377) .75u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1053) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3200) .25uComment -
My card is finished. Think I'm gonna catch a nap before the Louisville game. Pretty heavy on ML parlays on this card. Need Blaydes, Hamilton, Torres, and Skelly to come through. I laid one of the bigger bets I'll lay on Blaydes at -200 as well. Need Andrade ITD as wellComment -
Will wait until closer to time but if Roundtree gets below -140 (-145 at 5D right now), I think I'll toss a unit on him as well.Comment -
Prelims I got nailed down like this - Hedging a bunch on this card with prop play.. Don't trust the fighters that much in each match up..
Fight #1 - Roundtree by KO/ Hedge Jolly by Sub
Fight #2 - Price Straight/ Hedge Morono by Dec
Fight #3 - Torres by Dec
Fight #4 - Tanaka by Dec/ Hedge Ramos by Sub
Fight #5 - Skelly ITD
Fight #6 - Blaydes by KO
This is the best I could come up with and let's see how these stick and play out???
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Tanaka/Ramos seems destined for a split if it goes the distanceComment -
Rountree's takedown defense and ground game are suspect.
His last two fights he got taken down and dominated.
His last fight was in november 2016, about 3 months ago.
I don't know if 3 months is enough time to learn to wrestle, not get taken down and not get subbed.
Rountree with only 6 fights seems to suggest he doesn't have much experience.
Jolly seems to have good wrestling and a good ground game.
I got small on Jolly. I think he'll go for the takedown. If he gets it, he wins the fight.
3 months might not be enough time for Khalil to learn to wrestle.Comment -
Fight #7 - Andrade ITD
I'm really not confident on how to bet the Hamilton/Fortuna fight and Trujillo/Vick fights.. Those 2 fights have me twisted for days now... While you think Hamilton and Trujillo have the power and should knock out their opponents both have a knack for going to decision and holding on when gassed if they can't get the KO early.
Hamilton has a huge weight advantage, he will give up speed and could get sub'd out by Fortuna whom does have a good submission game.... If Hamilton gasses I could see him getting choked out maybe late in the fight.
Trujillo blasts away early then gasses and holds on in fights, Vick probably wins a decision if he doesn't get KO'd early on is what I'm thinking.. Vick could possibly finish late as well....
So I'm reluctantly gonna play those 2 fights like this -
Fight #8 - Hamilton by KO/ Hedge Fortuna by Sub.
Fight #9 - Trujillo by KO/ Hedge Vick by Decision.Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-04-17, 04:21 PM.Comment -
Jibby, Trujillo went vegan at start of 2016. His cardio seems much better. Won the 3rd round to win a decision in his last fight against Rinaldi. Think he catches Vick along the way and may be able to just wrestle as wellComment -
TPow after reading this thread it REALLY looks like you did your homework going into this event.. GL BUDDY!! .
Yep I'm on Trujillo to finish, too late I already placed the hedge with Vick by Decision... You could be right with Trujillo. Like I said I didn't like the action on this fight from day 1.. I should have passed..
I actually don't like this event at all for betting...I capped it best I could and am rolling with it though.. If I was ever gonna pass on a UFC event this would have been it just for the record.. Too many fights could either go to decision or finish IMO.. Hard to even find hedge plays on these fights..Comment -
I think there's a little value on Vulkan. OSP likes to fight slow but he will have to deal with Vulkan's pressure. I also think most of OSP's best attributes are in strength and athleticism and not actually fight skill. I have him as a favorite but I don't think he finishes Vulkan which means he's gonna have his cardio tested to win decision. Cardio looked pretty awful vs. Manuwa. Not convinced Vulkan will win but I think he's got a much better shot than the odds imply.Comment -
MU Chan Sung Jung (Chan Sung Jung vrs Dennis Bermudez) +169 MU Abel Trujillo (James Vick vrs Abel Trujillo) +101 MU Anthony Hamilton (Marcel Fortuna vrs Anthony Hamilton) -215 MU Jessica Andrade (Angela Hill vrs Jessica Andrade) -525 MU Curtis Blaydes (Adam Milstead vrs Curtis Blaydes) -336 MU Chas Skelly (Chris Gruetzemacher vrs Chas Skelly) -300 MU Tecia Torres (Bec Rawlings vrs Tecia Torres) -387 MU Alex Morono (Alex Morono vrs Niko Price) -110 Risking: $217.52 To Win: $8308.98 Comment -
A lot of confusion on the Trujillo/Vick fight in here... I think Trujillo takes it. Vick really only threatens with volume and time. He doesn't have as much offense as Trujillo. I don't see Trujillo being willing to stand in front of Vick because he will have such a speed advantage. He will be outside or inside but not right in Vick's range. Assuming his cardio is improved like his last fight, he should be able to win with the more varied offense, mixing up landing strikes, clinch, and a few takedowns.Comment -
Should have pulled the trigger on Roundtree earlier. -145 to -170 in like an hour. Roundtree ITD is around even money though and the KO line is +120. Leaning towards pulling the trigger on the KO line at +119. I really like Jolly after listening to him but he doesn't have any business at this level of MMA right now IMO. Just starting to register with me. I'm not sure he's capable of subbing a guy even as limited on the ground as Roundtree.Comment -
I have a hard time calling Vick vs Trujillo cuz I know Vick will use his reach advantage and run the entire fight.
Trujillo has KO power, counters well and is aggressive.
But if Vick outlands him, he could pitter pat his way to a W on points with pillow punches.Comment -
My hedge for my enormous Blaydes money is Milstead by decision at +925. Amazing line. Blaydes was only finished by NGANNOU due to doctor stoppage (his eye was badly swollen). Hard to see him being finished and +925 is a GREAT hedge. I'm also going to put a unit on the OVER 1.5 and fight going the distance at +180. Blaydes could finish Milstead on the ground with GnP but both guys are pretty tough and unless Blaydes goes for it early, the 1.5 should hit at leastComment
