Bellator 170: Ortiz vs. Sonnen (January 21, 2017)

[Rich Benjamins]

Hehe. Yea I think it will be a slugfest, but think Ward can beat Semtex. He has looked good lately. We'll see, it will be an exciting fight either way.

Rich ya talked me into it.. Hedged just now... No need to get greedy.. Gonna up my ITD Daley bet by another $50.00 now as well..

$50.00

$325.00

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3107 Ward wins by 3 round decision +650* vs Not Ward by 3 round decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep I read ya Hugo... Still fighters say things and do other things in the cage.. If Ward gets cracked by Daley early on he may go into wrestling mode.. Gotta play it safe with the better wrestler and protect bank roll.. Daley is hard to finish.. At +650 it's a safe hedge..

We will see. BOL

[Unwritten Law]

Ward has looked good in recent fights but I think Daley will catch him early. He has the stand up mentality and it's either kill or be killed. Could go either way but I think Daley will catch him.

[Sanity Check]

MMAMANIA event write up and predictions..
205 lbs.: Tito Ortiz (18-12-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (28-14-1)
There was a point between 2006 and 2012 where if you had written off Tito Ortiz as a fighter, few people would have blamed you. His days of dominating the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight division in the early 2000's seemed long behind him as the long streak of losses mounted up, with only a surprising defeat of Ryan Bader at UFC 132 briefly put an end to his skid. Things continued downhill after that until UFC cut its losses and parted ways with "Huntington Beach Bad Boy," at which point he came to Bellator and won back-to-back decisions for the first time in almost a decade.
Despite losing a title fight against Liam McGeary in 2015, Ortiz has at least proven he can't be consigned to the ranks of MMA history just yet with his Bellator career, while Chael Sonnen went into self-imposed exile after a failed drug test in 2014 and then got slapped with a two-year suspension on top of that. While he has stayed busy running his mouth and taking grappling matches, "American Gangster" has done nothing since late 2013 to prove himself. And before he found himself on the outside looking in, he had already taken losses in three of his last four fights.
Now if we're cutting Sonnen any slack here, it should be noted those three losses came to Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Rashad Evans -- hardly a list of scrubs and nobodies. Stretch out his record to his last six fights and he's batting .500 with wins over Brian Stann, Michael Bisping and Shogun Rua, giving him career victories over three former and future champions. With 17 of 29 wins (58 percent) by decision he can out-wrestle anybody, putting that All-American pedigree from the University of Oregon to good use, but his 12 finishes (seven knockouts, five submissions) shouldn't be overlooked. He's also stayed healthier than Ortiz, who by his own admission blames his failures on his injuries.
To make a long story short, the outcome of this main event can be determined by who you feel has more left in the gas tank. Neither one is a spring chicken, but at 39 with three years off from full time competition, I have more confidence in Sonnen's reserves than the chronically hurt Ortiz despite his recent success. At 41, Ortiz is pushing past the point where it's a good idea to compete, but as so often happens to fighters later in their careers, his name value is more bankable than his fight record. He beat Alexander Shlemenko in a fight with a monstrous size difference, and he toppled a past his prime Stephan Bonnar, but we already know from past history that Sonnen can out-wrestle Ortiz. He will again.
Final prediction: Chael Sonnen defeats Tito Ortiz via unanimous decision

#1 When they say Chael has been active in grappling. What they really mean is Chael was submitted in grappling by Andre Galvao who would be welterweight or lightweight in MMA. Galvao weighed 190 lbs to Chael's 225 & still dominated him.



#2 Chael has 43 professional fights in MMA. Tito has 31 fights. Tito is 2 years older but someone could make a case that Chael having 12 more fights than Tito, has cut weight more times, and has more wear and tear on his body.

#3 Testing positive for PED's(steroids) also puts additional wear and tear on a person's body & health.

#4 Chael's last 3 wins are Brian Stann, Michael Bisping and Shogun. The Bisping fight was very close, many thought Bisping should have been awarded the win. Brian Stann and Shogun might not have had the best ground or sub games when they fought Chael. Its been 4 years since Chael has fought anyone relevent(unless being tapped by a 190 pound Andre Galvao is relevent). Tito has fought relevent fighters all this time.

#5 That last line about Chael outwrestling Tito 20 years ago, meaning Chael can outwrestle Tito now doesn't make much sense to me. Johny Hendricks beat Tyron Woodley in a wrestling match something like 10 years ago. But who would win a fight if they fought today?

...

If Tito wins, I'll think about doing some type of prediction website.

I wouldn't mind making predictions for 6 months to a year to see what my win / loss would look like.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Chael looks like shit

[Unwritten Law]

Jibbby, you coming out to The Forum, what's up? I'm heading up there around noonish. Rain is canceled! Get ready for the fights!

[Rich Benjamins]

Look at this interview of Ralek Gracie:

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/01/bellator-170s-ralek-gracie-mma-return-is-about-coming-back-to-my-roots-coming-to-terms-with-myself

In the comments below, they say he's just fighting to pay off his debts that his Metamoris BJJ competition failed and he hasn't paid some of the grapplers. He says in the interview that he doesn't train as hard as he fights -

Your training is supposed to be just as hard as the fighting, right? I mean, not hard sparring but you need to train so the fight ends up being fun.

Every fighter that comes back to fight because they "have to" or from a long layoff invariably looks bad. Meek, Gagnon, Rousey, Koscheck, etc.

[Rich Benjamins]

LOL:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBYmZsUjSFE

[turbozed]

Look at this interview of Ralek Gracie:

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/01/bellator-170s-ralek-gracie-mma-return-is-about-coming-back-to-my-roots-coming-to-terms-with-myself

In the comments below, they say he's just fighting to pay off his debts that his Metamoris BJJ competition failed and he hasn't paid some of the grapplers. He says in the interview that he doesn't train as hard as he fights -

Your training is supposed to be just as hard as the fighting, right? I mean, not hard sparring but you need to train so the fight ends up being fun.

Every fighter that comes back to fight because they "have to" or from a long layoff invariably looks bad. Meek, Gagnon, Rousey, Koscheck, etc.

He signed with Bellator literally a couple of days after his own family, Ryron and Rener, sent an email out to their network of affiliates saying "don't do business with Ralek." Check it out: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/10/2...ek-eddie-bravo

"Ralek has engaged in dishonest and fraudulent activity, and continues to do so despite our repeated efforts to guide him," the email reads. "We have decided to terminate all business relations with Ralek and Metamoris."

Email was on 10/19/2016 and he signed with Bellator on 10/26/2016. I think it's safe to assume that the two are related and Ralek is picking up a check in exchange for letting the promo use his Gracie name.

The only question now is whether Kato is worth a -300 bet with a questionable ground game. He is a Kudo champion but, in Kudo, all you need to do is stall on the ground for 30 seconds to force a standup. Training BJJ with Hatsu Hioki might not be enough. I'll prob put a few bucks on Kato anyway since the Ralek angle is just too compelling.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby, you coming out to The Forum, what's up? I'm heading up there around noonish. Rain is canceled! Get ready for the fights!

Seriously thinking about it since it's gonna be delayed on Spike.. No live betting options either...

Gonna call a few buds in a few and see if I can get one to go with me.. We'll see..

Enjoy the event Unwritten, how are your seats? You up close?

[JIBBBY]

Chael looks like shit

He's still the better wrestler.. Tito is a shitty striker too.. I think you still gotta go with the better wrestler since Tito is a shitty striker.. Tito will gas out faster then Chael too..

I do think Chael will hold his own standing and get the better of Tito on the ground if he hasn't lost all his MMA skills yet..

[Rich Benjamins]

Nice detective work, Turbozed. We've seen over and over again, when a guy comes back to fight for some reason that pushes him to do it, even though he doesn't really want to, he gets his ass kicked. Fighters should fight because they like it, or they want to reach their full potential and challenge themselves. All other reasons suck.

He signed with Bellator literally a couple of days after his own family, Ryron and Rener, sent an email out to their network of affiliates saying "don't do business with Ralek." Check it out: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/10/2...ek-eddie-bravo



Email was on 10/19/2016 and he signed with Bellator on 10/26/2016. I think it's safe to assume that the two are related and Ralek is picking up a check in exchange for letting the promo use his Gracie name.

The only question now is whether Kato is worth a -300 bet with a questionable ground game. He is a Kudo champion but, in Kudo, all you need to do is stall on the ground for 30 seconds to force a standup. Training BJJ with Hatsu Hioki might not be enough. I'll prob put a few bucks on Kato anyway since the Ralek angle is just too compelling.

[Sanity Check]

LOL:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBYmZsUjSFE

I see Kevin Casey, Muhammad Ali's son in law grappling in there.

Casey also has a rap career. Ralek and him must be collabing on some level.

So far, I have to say, Clint Hester is the only person in MMA I've heard with a song I'd consider buying off i-tunes.

[JIBBBY]

Kato is the call as he's gonna knock his head off... 1st round ko..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see Kevin Casey, Muhammad Ali's son in law grappling in there.

Casey also has a rap career. Ralek and him must be collabing on some level.

So far, I have to say, Clint Hester is the only person in MMA I've heard with a song I'd consider buying off i-tunes.

There's footage of Akon Gracie (Kevin Casey) grappling in that awful music video

[turbozed]

Nice detective work, Turbozed. We've seen over and over again, when a guy comes back to fight for some reason that pushes him to do it, even though he doesn't really want to, he gets his ass kicked. Fighters should fight because they like it, or they want to reach their full potential and challenge themselves. All other reasons suck.

Thanks bro. Just trying to make sense of this fight. There's still the off chance that Kato gets caught with a submission. I don't know if Ralek has it in him to wrestle Kato down to the mat and impose the ground game on his terms. The last piece of the puzzle is whether Kato has any decent counter wrestling or TDD. There's not enough footage out there to tell unfortunately.

It looks like Kato will have a weight advantage though. Here he talks about cutting from 94kg (207 lbs)

ASIA MMA: What is your average walk around weight?

Kato: 94.
ASIA MMA: Did you drop much weight for Kudo?
Kato: I drop. It’s weight plus height divisions, and I’m fighting under 2oo centimeters so I need to drop to 85 kg. This time I have to cut to 84, so it’s quite the same. I’m thinking about my health. I don’t want to drop too much. I have to think about my life after fighting. I’m not planning to drop to 77, I prefer to be more natural. They should do it like in boxing where you’re only allowed to recover a few pounds.
ASIA MMA: Your train grappling at Alive, so I assume you train in the gi?
Kato: Sure of course. At Alive sometimes I participate in gi, sometimes I participate in grappling

Ralek's weight is listed as 190 lbs on Wikipedia and he just weighed-in at 183.9. So Kato seems like he'll be the bigger guy by 10-15 lbs at least.
It seems too obvious that Ralek here is just picking up a check and is going to go out there to get slaughtered (my guess is he gets crumpled by a body shot). Would think it would be more chalk than -300 but maybe the Gracie name still holds some value among bettors? Or maybe something fishy is going on.

[Rich Benjamins]

I doubt there's anything fishy going on. I think odds makers don't think Kato is reliable enough to make him a bigger favorite than -300. Gracie is also a world class BJJ grappler.

Thanks bro. Just trying to make sense of this fight. There's still the off chance that Kato gets caught with a submission. I don't know if Ralek has it in him to wrestle Kato down to the mat and impose the ground game on his terms. The last piece of the puzzle is whether Kato has any decent counter wrestling or TDD. There's not enough footage out there to tell unfortunately.

It looks like Kato will have a weight advantage though. Here he talks about cutting from 94kg (207 lbs)



Ralek's weight is listed as 190 lbs on Wikipedia and he just weighed-in at 183.9. So Kato seems like he'll be the bigger guy by 10-15 lbs at least.
It seems too obvious that Ralek here is just picking up a check and is going to go out there to get slaughtered (my guess is he gets crumpled by a body shot). Would think it would be more chalk than -300 but maybe the Gracie name still holds some value among bettors? Or maybe something fishy is going on.

[JIBBBY]

^^^If some of you guys think Gracie can take down Kato early on then this is the best odds for an upset bet on 5dimes. No submission prop available...

No chance Gracie wins a decision against Kato anyways.. Highly doubt the fight even gets out of the 1st round.

3205

Gracie wins inside distance

+353

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^^If some of you guys think Gracie can take down Kato early on then this is the best odds for an upset bet on 5dimes. No submission prop available...

No chance Gracie wins a decision against Kato anyways.. Highly doubt the fight even gets out of the 1st round.

3205

Gracie wins inside distance

+353

That's how I played it since we know very little about Kato's TDD or his defensive game off his back.

[JIBBBY]

That's how I played it since we know very little about Kato's TDD or his defensive game off his back.

I have no play on this fight still.. I don't like the stiff odds on Kato ITD at -240. I don't wanna gamble on a Gracie sub either even at +353.. All the odds are garbage with this fight IMO..

I may take a pass we'll see.. If I do play this fight it will probably be the Under 1.5 at -240.. I think that's the safest bet.... Either the KO comes early or the sub comes early.. $240 to win $100..

Still tough odds to swallow..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have no play on this fight still.. I don't like the stiff odds on Kato ITD at -240. I don't wanna gamble on a Gracie sub either even at +353.. All the odds are garbage with this fight IMO..

I may take a pass we'll see.. If I do play this fight it will probably be the Under 1.5 at -240.. I think that's the safest bet.... Either the KO comes early or the sub comes early.. $240 to win $100..

Still tough odds to swallow..

Yup I've got that under in a parlay too

[JIBBBY]

#1 When they say Chael has been active in grappling. What they really mean is Chael was submitted in grappling by Andre Galvao who would be welterweight or lightweight in MMA. Galvao weighed 190 lbs to Chael's 225 & still dominated him.



#2 Chael has 43 professional fights in MMA. Tito has 31 fights. Tito is 2 years older but someone could make a case that Chael having 12 more fights than Tito, has cut weight more times, and has more wear and tear on his body.

#3 Testing positive for PED's(steroids) also puts additional wear and tear on a person's body & health.

#4 Chael's last 3 wins are Brian Stann, Michael Bisping and Shogun. The Bisping fight was very close, many thought Bisping should have been awarded the win. Brian Stann and Shogun might not have had the best ground or sub games when they fought Chael. Its been 4 years since Chael has fought anyone relevent(unless being tapped by a 190 pound Andre Galvao is relevent). Tito has fought relevent fighters all this time.

#5 That last line about Chael outwrestling Tito 20 years ago, meaning Chael can outwrestle Tito now doesn't make much sense to me. Johny Hendricks beat Tyron Woodley in a wrestling match something like 10 years ago. But who would win a fight if they fought today?

...

If Tito wins, I'll think about doing some type of prediction website.

I wouldn't mind making predictions for 6 months to a year to see what my win / loss would look like.

Good points Sanity.. Still like Chael's wrestling and top control advantage in this fight.. Tito isn't exactly a submission master either and especially not off his back..

Chael's standup is probably just as good or should I say just as bad as Tito's.. Could be a stale mate standing.. Tito is slow, no head movement, and is methodical with his striking.. Both have pretty good chins.. Tito gasses out quickly as well in recent fights from what I saw..

Tito is more likely to injure during the fight also..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 170: Sonnen vs. Ortiz Picks:
Derek Anderson Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Emmanuel Sachez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Hisaki Kato Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Paul Daley Round 1 KO (Punch)
Chael Sonnen Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bellator 170: Sonnen vs. Ortiz

Main Card:

Anderson vs. Campos
Campos Decision (+385) .5u

Sanchez vs. Karakhayan
Sanchez (+125) .5u
Sanchez/Karakhayan Draw (+5000) .1u

Kato vs. Gracie
Gracie ITD (+365) .5u

Ward vs. Daley
Daley (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Daley -3.5 (+125) .5u
Daley Decision (+1018) .25u

Sonnen vs. Ortiz
Sonnen Submission (+640) .25u

Hedge:
Ortiz KO/TKO (+1000) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Kato+Gracie Under 1.5/Campos+Anderson Over 1.5 (+116) 1u
Ward+Daley Under 1.5/Sonnen (+140) 1u

[Sanity Check]

Good points Sanity.. Still like Chael's wrestling and top control advantage in this fight.. Tito isn't exactly a submission master either and especially not off his back..

Chael's standup is probably just as good or should I say just as bad as Tito's.. Could be a stale mate standing.. Tito is slow, no head movement, and is methodical with his striking.. Both have pretty good chins.. Tito gasses out quickly as well in recent fights from what I saw..

Tito is more likely to injure during the fight also..

Tito has subs from the bottom. If you can find the Tito vs Lyoto Machida fight, Tito comes very close to submitting Machida with a triangle off his back.

As for the rest, we'll see soon enough.

Here. Tito nasty triangle from the bottom.

https://fat.gfycat.com/AllLivelyAzurevase.webm

[JIBBBY]

Tito has subs from the bottom. If you can find the Tito vs Lyoto Machida fight, Tito comes very close to submitting Machida with a triangle off his back -- if I'm remembering right. Tito has been dangerous off his back, with submissions for a long time. He usually doesn't spend enough time on his back to show it, since he's usually on top.

As for the rest, we'll see soon enough.

Well let's go by the numbers then..

Chael has lost 8 times in 42 fights by Submission a bunch of them by neck chokes..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chael-Sonnen-4112

Tito has 4 sub wins in 30 fights.. All neck choke wins.. No triangle chokes or any off his back..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tito-Ortiz-158

3027 Ortiz wins by submission

+970

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tito has subs from the bottom. If you can find the Tito vs Lyoto Machida fight, Tito comes very close to submitting Machida with a triangle off his back.

As for the rest, we'll see soon enough.

Here. Tito nasty triangle from the bottom.

https://fat.gfycat.com/AllLivelyAzurevase.webm

Was that clip from the 90s?

[Sanity Check]

Well let's go by the numbers then..

Chael has lost 8 times in 42 fights by Submission a bunch of them by neck chokes..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chael-Sonnen-4112

Tito has 4 sub wins in 30 fights.. All neck choke wins.. No triangle chokes or any off his back..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tito-Ortiz-158

3027 Ortiz wins by submission

+970

Tito might be mad at Chael.

If he wins it might be by TKO or decision.

Chael's last 3 losses by TKO.

I think Chael's opponents usually want to punch him in the face.

No one wants to submit Chael, as far as I know.

They want to punch him in the face as much as possible.

Was that clip from the 90s?

2008.

[JIBBBY]

On an NFL side note I hit these futures earlier in the year.. Only ones I have pending.

I think Atlanta and New England end up in the Super Bowl with New England winning it so I think I'm focked with all of these, just thought to share..

I'm trying to think how I can arb out on some of them, any ideas? Maybe I should have posted this in the NFL section never mind..

$20.00

$370.00

Pending

12/15/16 8:25pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI - Green Bay Packers +1850*

$20.00

$210.00

Pending

12/15/16 8:25pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI - Pittsburgh Steelers +1050*

$30.00

$738.00

Pending

9/8/16 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI matchup - New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +2460

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tito might be mad at Chael.

If he wins it might be by TKO or decision.

Chael's last 3 losses by TKO.

I think Chael's opponents usually want to punch him in the face.

No one wants to submit Chael, as far as I know.

They want to punch him in the face as much as possible.


2008.

Agreed. Tito KO/TKO (+1000) seems like good value

[Hugo de Naranja]

On an NFL side note I hit these futures earlier in the year.. Only ones I have pending.

I think Atlanta and New England end up in the Super Bowl with New England winning it so I think I'm focked with all of these, just thought to share..

I'm trying to think how I can arb out on some of them, any ideas? Maybe I should have posted this in the NFL section never mind..

$20.00

$370.00

Pending

12/15/16 8:25pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI - Green Bay Packers +1850*

$20.00

$210.00

Pending

12/15/16 8:25pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI - Pittsburgh Steelers +1050*

$30.00

$738.00

Pending

9/8/16 8:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI matchup - New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +2460

Maybe take Pats to win SB at plus money and parlay Pats/Falcons for the conference games?

[JIBBBY]

Maybe take Pats to win SB at plus money and parlay Pats/Falcons for the conference games?

Hugo you are a sharpie, I like it... Was kinda thinking along those same lines just now trying to figure it out. I actually forgot I had these bets pending and just checked this morning. So I got less then 24 hours to figure it out.. Your suggestion is really the only way to arb out.. Thanks HUGO I'll crunch the numbers!!!

[Unwritten Law]

Decent seats, come out Jibbby just arrived near the Forum pregaming at my buddy's place. Eat then head out around 2pm.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo you are a sharpie, I like it... Was kinda thinking along those same lines just now trying to figure it out. I actually forgot I had these bets pending and just checked this morning. So I got less then 24 hours to figure it out.. Your suggestion is really the only way to arb out.. Thanks HUGO I'll crunch the numbers!!!

Best of luck buddy!

[JIBBBY]

Decent seats, come out Jibbby just arrived near the Forum pregaming at my buddy's place. Eat then head out around 2pm.

I'm gonna take a pass.. Couldn't get any of my boys to head out with me.. They are all busy since the sun came out and it's Saturday.. I'm good kicking at home watching this anyways.. Still trying to get some last minute bets in..

Enjoy the show Unwritten maybe in the future we hook up sometime at another Bellator event.. They always seem to be held here is So Cal.. I've been to a few..