Bellator 170: Ortiz vs. Sonnen (January 21, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

had to laugh JIBBERS...meanwhile it's ZERO degrees and snowing and I'd go in a heartbeat LOL

Us natives are spoiled here in So Cal as it never rains or gets really cold, ever!!.. So when it drops below 60 degrees and rains heavily we never leave the house ..

Hell most of us don't even own a rain coat or umbrella.. People don't know how to drive in the rain either.. They see a huge deep puddle on the freeway they hit the gas and try to drive thru it because it looks like fun...

[PaperTrail07]

LMAO I believe it....a buddy of mine moved to vegas....when he moved back he drove like a penetrating idiot lol...full defrost and wipers in a slight drizzle LMAO....was hilarious......GET THERE JIBBBERS>....this is a SOLID event IMOO.......great bellator event..

Us natives are spoiled here in So Cal as it never rains or gets really cold, ever!!.. So when it drops below 60 degrees and rains heavily we never leave the house ..

Hell most of us don't even own a rain coat or umbrella.. People don't know how to drive in the rain either.. They see a huge deep puddle on the freeway they hit the gas and try to drive thru it because it looks like fun...

[Sanity Check]

Chael & Tito at the weigh ins

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chael with the grandpa gut

[UncleChael]

I can beat any man God ever made.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I can beat any man God ever made.

Especially Tito lol. Have Sonnen in a parlay for small but I wish he had looked better at weigh-ins

[PaperTrail07]

Tito does appear to care more---I think sonnen actually got to him w the wifey comment LOL...

Especially Tito lol. Have Sonnen in a parlay for small but I wish he had looked better at weigh-ins

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tito does appear to care more---I think sonnen actually got to him w the wifey comment LOL...

Yeah for sure

[JIBBBY]

Damn Tito looks ripped as shiiit.. Chael in decent shape but damn Tito looks jacked.. Nervous on my Chael bets now..

Still think Chael takes down Tito with clean doubles and puts Tito on his back round after round.. He is the superior wrestler and wrestling rules.. That will never change..

Tito's striking sucks as well and always did...

[Sanity Check]

Tito is my homey.

We got this.

[JIBBBY]

I do appreciate that Trump MAGA red hat that Tito wore at weigh ins!!! I almost want to root for him now

[Sanity Check]

At least someone will win no matter the outcome.

I'm surprised the line favors Chael so heavily.

He hasn't fought in years & the last time he fought he tested positive poisoning his body with every PED known to man.

Tito doesn't look injured & was beating McGeary easily until he got caught with that sub.

Line should be much closer.

[Rich Benjamins]

I bet big on Kato. Strikers seem to be dominating in MMA lately, and Kato should beat Gracie in this striker vs grappler match. Gracie hasn't fought an MMA fight in 7 years. Ring rust is having a strong effect on fighters as we've seen. Gracie wants to promote his Metamoris BJJ competition, so he's probably fighting to get some promotion there. We've seen a lot lately that if people fight for any reason other than they like to fight, they get beat badly. Everything points to a Kato TKO. Only risk is if Kato gets taken down a lot and Gracie lays on him. Kato should keep his distance and keep his jab in Gracie's face.

[JIBBBY]

^ No KO prop out for Kato Rich...

ITD prop does have better odds then the -330 straight play..

3209 Kato wins inside distance

-264

[Rich Benjamins]

Yea I think the odds are wrong. Sure Kato will probably get a KO, but to have it change that little is ignoring the possibility that there will be a lot of grappling and going the distance. Gracie will push to grapple.

^ No KO prop out for Kato Rich...

ITD prop does have better odds then the -330 straight play..

3209 Kato wins inside distance

-264

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA event write up and predictions..




205 lbs.: Tito Ortiz (18-12-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (28-14-1)

There was a point between 2006 and 2012 where if you had written off Tito Ortiz as a fighter, few people would have blamed you. His days of dominating the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight division in the early 2000's seemed long behind him as the long streak of losses mounted up, with only a surprising defeat of Ryan Bader at UFC 132 briefly put an end to his skid. Things continued downhill after that until UFC cut its losses and parted ways with "Huntington Beach Bad Boy," at which point he came to Bellator and won back-to-back decisions for the first time in almost a decade.
Despite losing a title fight against Liam McGeary in 2015, Ortiz has at least proven he can't be consigned to the ranks of MMA history just yet with his Bellator career, while Chael Sonnen went into self-imposed exile after a failed drug test in 2014 and then got slapped with a two-year suspension on top of that. While he has stayed busy running his mouth and taking grappling matches, "American Gangster" has done nothing since late 2013 to prove himself. And before he found himself on the outside looking in, he had already taken losses in three of his last four fights.
Now if we're cutting Sonnen any slack here, it should be noted those three losses came to Anderson Silva, Jon Jones and Rashad Evans -- hardly a list of scrubs and nobodies. Stretch out his record to his last six fights and he's batting .500 with wins over Brian Stann, Michael Bisping and Shogun Rua, giving him career victories over three former and future champions. With 17 of 29 wins (58 percent) by decision he can out-wrestle anybody, putting that All-American pedigree from the University of Oregon to good use, but his 12 finishes (seven knockouts, five submissions) shouldn't be overlooked. He's also stayed healthier than Ortiz, who by his own admission blames his failures on his injuries.
To make a long story short, the outcome of this main event can be determined by who you feel has more left in the gas tank. Neither one is a spring chicken, but at 39 with three years off from full time competition, I have more confidence in Sonnen's reserves than the chronically hurt Ortiz despite his recent success. At 41, Ortiz is pushing past the point where it's a good idea to compete, but as so often happens to fighters later in their careers, his name value is more bankable than his fight record. He beat Alexander Shlemenko in a fight with a monstrous size difference, and he toppled a past his prime Stephan Bonnar, but we already know from past history that Sonnen can out-wrestle Ortiz. He will again.
Final prediction: Chael Sonnen defeats Tito Ortiz via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Paul Daley (38-14-2) vs. Brennan Ward (14-4)

Paul "Semtex" Daley was set to face Derek Anderson at Bellator 163, but erring on the side of caution Bellator and the Mohegan Athletic Commission pulled him from the fight following a hard weight cut. He did make the weight, though, for whatever that's worth, which may have earned him enough grace with Bellator to be rebooked for a later date at the same weight with Brennan Ward. "Irish Bad Boy" is more than happy to accept the challenge with three knockouts and two rear-naked choke submissions in his last six bouts, his only loss in that span a shocker to "Cyborg" Santos.
Ward is almost unrepentant in the fact he wants to be a throwback fighter, eschewing technique and discipline and wanting to bang it out with his opponents. Although that has paid many dividends in his MMA career to date with 64 percent of his wins coming by knockout, I strongly recommend he rethink that strategy against Daley, a ferocious power striker with 28 of 38 MMA wins (73 percent) coming by knockout, and a similarly sterling record in kickboxing. Ward can throw down and out-strike most of his foes, but based on his track record I think that's going to backfire here in a big way.
Final prediction: Paul Daley wins via first round knockout


185 lbs.: Ralek Gracie (3-0) vs. Hisaki Kato (7-2)

What do you make of Metamoris founder Ralek Gracie? His record seems impressive at a cursory glance, but his last win dates back to 2010. Given he's a first-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu you might expect more than a unanimous decision over an aging Kazushi Sakuraba, who was already 41 at the time and hasn't won a single fight since. That doesn't really compare to Kato, who has has nine fights over the same span and won 77 percent of them ... all by knockout. Kato has something in common with Ward -- he'll risk it all to get the finish and pop the crowd. While I can't take any fighter with the last name Gracie lightly, Kato just needs to avoid going to the ground to get the job done.
Final prediction: Hisaki Kato wins via first round technical knockout


145 lbs.: Georgi Karakhanyan (26-6-1) vs. Emmanuel Sanchez (13-3)

"Insane" Georgi Karakhanyan is on a mission of late after snapping a two-fight losing streak against Daniel Weichel and Pat Curran and putting together a two-fight win streak against Bubba Jenkins and Kirill Medvedovsky. While the aforementioned Weichel may have a better claim for No. 1 contender at present with three straight wins, Karakhanyan could move into a tie by doing the same thing Weichel did -- defeating "El Matador" Emmanuel Sanchez. At that point they'd either have to face each other or A.J. McKee to break the logjam, but Sanchez hasn't lost two fights in a row in his entire career and may not be ready to start now.
Here's the tale of the tape on this key divisional bout. Sanchez is only 26, 5'9" and has a solid 71" wingspan. He's a grinder of a fighter with 12 of 13 wins by either submission or decision (five of the former, seven of the latter). Karakhanyan is 31, 5'8" and is giving up some distance with a 68" reach. The best way for Karakhanyan to negate those advantages is follow the blueprint Weichel laid down -- strike when necessary and secure takedowns as the opportunities open up. With 53 percent of his wins (14 of 26) by submission, Karakhanyan has the ground game advantage as well, but Sanchez has yet to tap out in a fight. Like almost every Sanchez fight, this one will be a close battle.
Final prediction: Georgi Karakhanyan wins via split decision


155 lbs.: Derek Campos (17-6) vs. Derek Anderson (14-2, 1 NC)

Our final bout of the main card pits two long time veterans of Bellator's Lightweight division against each other in a contest where only one can earn a third straight win; except, of course, in the unlikely event this goes to a draw and they meet two new opponents. Even if that happens they'd just have to do it again at a later date so that someone can move up the ladder toward Michael Chandler, though if Anderson has an advantage it's that he's never faced "Iron" Mike before and Campos already lost to him via rear-naked choke, so Campos may need to do more to prove he's ready for a rematch.
Campos' advantage is his diverse tool kit with a nearly equal number of wins by knockout, submission and decision (five-five-seven) while "Barbaric" Anderson is normally a finisher (11 of 14 by either knockout or submission), but has gone to a decision in his last two fights. The tale of the tape may help here, though, as Anderson is 6'0" and has a 74" reach, while Campos is significantly smaller at 5'9" with a 68" reach. As much as I respect Campos' long tenure and signature wins over guys like Estevan Payan and Melvin Guillard, it's hard to ignore the mismatch here.
Final prediction: Derek Anderson wins via submission

[Unwritten Law]

Tito getting the treatment he used to act when he fought Ken Shamrock. Now that he's older and in his 40's, he probably understands how Ken was at that time. Funny how the script is flipped back on Tito.

[JIBBBY]

Tito getting the treatment he used to act when he fought Ken Shamrock. Now that he's older and in his 40's, he probably understands how Ken was at that time. Funny how the script is flipped back on Tito.

When I think of 2 guys fighting at 40 years old in the Octagon I think injury.. Wouldn't be surprised if one of them blow out a knee or pop a shoulder and dislocate it.. Mainly thinking this could happen to the 41 year old Tito Ortiz since he has been injury prone in the past....

Chael has done some grappling tourneys and what not while not fighting in the cage.. He's stayed healthy and tuned up when rolling and grappling.. So I expect Chael to immediately shoot and try and get Tito down.. His take downs and wrestling should still be reasonably up to par one would think..

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Us natives are spoiled here in So Cal as it never rains or gets really cold, ever!!.. So when it drops below 60 degrees and rains heavily we never leave the house ..

Hell most of us don't even own a rain coat or umbrella.. People don't know how to drive in the rain either.. They see a huge deep puddle on the freeway they hit the gas and try to drive thru it because it looks like fun...

I did not know white people could run so fast.

[Rich Benjamins]

Another thought on Kato/Gracie. Gracie is a BJJ fighter, not an MMA fighter. The way the sport has evolved, they know how to exploit a straight BJJ specialist. I hope Kato's coaches guided him the right way.

[JIBBBY]

I did not know white people could run so fast.

You obviously missed these last Olympics Diggity..

Most white boys can't jump but some of us can run

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Jibby, you're west coast right?

How are you watching this event sinse Spike doesnt want to show the Bellator fights until 9pm?

[JIBBBY]

Jibby, you're west coast right?

How are you watching this event sinse Spike doesnt want to show the Bellator fights until 9pm?

Live stream if delayed.. This event is taking place on the west coast though, never even considered it being delayed.. Thanks for the heads up..

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Live stream if delayed.. This event is taking place on the west coast though, never even considered it being delayed.. Thanks for the heads up..

Yeah I checked... 9pm on Spike.

They always do this with Bellator fights. I dont know why?

[JIBBBY]

Yeah I checked... 9pm on Spike.

They always do this with Bellator fights. I dont know why?

Yep they did that for a previous Bellator event recently and I was scrabbling with others on SBR to find a live stream and we couldn't find one.. Finally the Bellator website started streaming live with no sound..

I do think this Bellator event will be covered by all the normal stream sites this go around since it's a larger venue and in prime time here in the States.

[Unwritten Law]

Cost more money for Bellator to broadcast it live I suppose. Bellator is notorious for tape delays which is why they will never beat UFC ratings.

[Unwritten Law]

Sonnen is now up -210 despite Tito looking ripped. They must have inside knowledge Chael will prevail.

Daley and Ward is almost at a pick'em - Daley slightly the favorite.

Kat remains a 3-1 favorite and the under 1.5 is still juiced up -245.

[JIBBBY]

AXS on now.. Not to late to make a few bucks on the favorites..

$100.00	$66.20	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/20/17 11:59pm AXS Fighting 4002 Mike Richman -245* vs Lazar Stojadinovic
				Pending	1/20/17 11:59pm AXS Fighting 4102 Chico Camus -555* vs Darrick Minner

[JIBBBY]

Sonnen is now up -210 despite Tito looking ripped. They must have inside knowledge Chael will prevail.

Daley and Ward is almost at a pick'em - Daley slightly the favorite.

Kat remains a 3-1 favorite and the under 1.5 is still juiced up -245.

Yep my bets are in on the Daley fight.. Going with Daley and by KO no hedge after all..

$50.00

$55.50

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3109 Daley wins inside distance +111* vs Not Daley inside distance

$120.00

$100.00

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm Bellator Fighting 3102 Paul Daley -120* vs Brennan Ward

[Rich Benjamins]

GL Jibbs. I like Ward though.

Yep my bets are in.. Going with Daley and by KO no hedge after all..

$50.00

$55.50

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3109 Daley wins inside distance +111* vs Not Daley inside distance

$120.00

$100.00

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm Bellator Fighting 3102 Paul Daley -120* vs Brennan Ward

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep my bets are in on the Daley fight.. Going with Daley and by KO no hedge after all..

$50.00

$55.50

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3109 Daley wins inside distance +111* vs Not Daley inside distance

$120.00

$100.00

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm Bellator Fighting 3102 Paul Daley -120* vs Brennan Ward

I played it similarly

[JIBBBY]

GL Jibbs. I like Ward though.

I was originally on Ward as well but the more I thought about this match up the more I thought it would remain standing and be a slug fest.. Daley can bang and probably has the better chin.. Had to go with Daley by KO in the end..

Hey but if Ward can fight a smart fight and take Daley down he probably wins by decision.. I thought about hedging Ward by decision at +650 and still might.. We'll see, I'm gonna sleep on it..

3107 Ward wins by 3 round decision

+650

[JIBBBY]

Rich ya talked me into it.. Hedged just now... No need to get greedy.. Gonna up my ITD Daley bet by another $50.00 now as well..

$50.00

$325.00

Pending

1/21/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3107 Ward wins by 3 round decision +650* vs Not Ward by 3 round decision

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was originally on Ward as well but the more I thought about this match up the more I thought it would remain standing and be a slug fest.. Daley can bang and probably has the better chin.. Had to go with Daley by KO in the end..

Hey but if Ward can fight a smart fight and take Daley down he probably wins by decision.. I thought about hedging Ward by decision at +650 and still might.. We'll see, I'm gonna sleep on it..

3107 Ward wins by 3 round decision

+650

Ward has said repeatedly that he will stand and trade rather than using his wrestling. He wants to put on a show for the fans and will make this a brawl.

[JIBBBY]

Ward has said repeatedly that he will stand and trade rather than using his wrestling. He wants to put on a show for the fans and will make this a brawl.

Yep I read ya Hugo... Still fighters say things and do other things in the cage.. If Ward gets cracked by Daley early on he may go into wrestling mode.. Gotta play it safe with the better wrestler and protect bank roll.. Daley is hard to finish.. At +650 it's a safe hedge..