UFC on FOX: VanZant Vs Waterson (December 17, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Locked and loaded.. Early start - prelims start in a couple hours.. GL fellas!!!

How I'm playing the first few fights.. All small stuff early on.. 50-100 no hedging..

Fight #1 - Bajan by decision...

Fight #2 - Sandaval by decision...

Fight #3 - Eddie Wineland by KO..

Fight #4 - Aldana by KO, U2.5...


UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Bojan
Velickovic
"Serbian Steel"
vs
Sultan
Aliev

SERBIA
Country
RUSSIA

14-3-1
Record
13-2-0

21%
KO/TKO
77%

57%
SUB
0%

21%
DEC
23%

72 in
Height
72 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

76 in
Reach
74 in

41 in
Leg Reach
40 in

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see all of these the same way. Not playing fight #2 though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Picks:
Bojan Velickovic Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Hector Sandoval Split Decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
Eddie Wineland Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Irene Aldana Round 1 TKO (Knee and Punches)
Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
James Moontasri Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Colby Covington Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mizuto Hirota Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Luis Henrique da Silva Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Punch)
Urijah Faber Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Paige VanZant Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Colby Covington ($8,900)
Bojan Velickovic ($8,600)
Mike Perry ($8,500)
Mizuto Hirota ($8,100)
Sage Northcutt ($8,000)
James Moontasri ($7,800)

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Luis Henrique da Silva ($9,000)
Eddie Wineland ($8,800)
Josh Emmett ($8,700)
Sage Northcutt ($8,000)
James Moontasri ($7,800)
Alan Jouban ($7,700)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Velickovic vs. Aliev
Velickovic (-135) 2.7u to win 2u
Velickovic/Aliev Draw (+6000) .1u

Fight #2: Sandoval vs. Serrano
No Bet

Fight #3: Wineland vs. Mizugaki
Wineland KO/TKO (+165) 1.5u
Wineland/Mizugaki Draw (+6500) .1u

Hedge:
Mizugaki Decision (+340) 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Smith vs. Aldana (DEBUT)
Aldana+Smith Under 2.5 (+150) 2u
Aldana ITD (+165) 2u
Aldana KO/TKO (+300) 1u

Hedge:
Smith Round 3 (+2550) .25u

Fight #5: Emmett vs. Holtzman
No Bet

Fight #6: Moontasri vs. Morono
Moontasri Decision (+444) .75u
Moontasri Round 2 (+600) .5u
Moontasri Round 3 (+1050) .25u
Moontasri Submission (+1275) 1u

Fight #7: Barberena vs. Covington
Barberena (+350) 1u
Barberena Round 2 (+1250) .25u
Barberena Round 3 (+2050) .25u

Hedge(s):
Covington Submission (+495) 1u
Covington Round 3 (+1075) .5u

Fight #8: Miller vs. Hirota
Hirota (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
Hirota Decision (+200) .5u

Fight #9: Henrique da Silva vs. Craig (DEBUT)
Henrique da Silva KO/TKO (+160) 1u
Henrique da Silva Round 2 (+425) .5u

Hedge(s):
Craig Submission (+435) .5u
Craig Round 1 (+600) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #10: Perry vs. Jouban
Perry (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Perry KO/TKO (+140) 1u
Perry Round 1 (+300) .5u

Hedge(s):
Jouban Decision (+475) .5u
Jouban Round 1 (+1575) .5u

Fight #11: Faber vs. Pickett
Faber Submission (+300) 3u

Fight #12: Gall vs. Northcutt
Northcutt (+120) 1u
Northcutt Scorecards = No Action (+155) 2u
Northcutt Submission (+1060) .5u

Hedge(s):
Gall Decision (+665) .5u
Gall KO/TKO (+1318) .5u

Fight #13: VanZant vs. Waterson
VanZant (-125) 2.5u to win 2u
VanZant (+100) 2u
VanZant+Waterson Under 4.5 Rounds (+140) 2u
VanZant ITD (+263) 1u
VanZant Round 3 (+1050) .5u
VanZant Split/Majority Decision (+1180) .25u
VanZant Round 4 (+1450) .25u
VanZant Round 5 (+2050) .25u

Hedge(s):
Waterson ITD (+456) 1u
Waterson KO/TKO (+1500) .25u
Waterson Round 3 (+1675) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Emmett/Da Silva (+117) 1u
Da Silva/Faber -3.5 (+135) 1.5u

Prop Parlays:
Covington+Barberena Starts Round 3/Da Silva+Craig Won’t Start Round 3 (+113) 2u
Miller Scorecards=No Action/Northcutt Scorecards=No Action(+342) .5u
Da Silva ITD/Perry KO/Faber+Pickett Goes Distance (+664) .25u
Da Silva KO/Jouban KO (+908) .5u
Wineland Decision/Aldana Decision (+1030) .25u
Emmett Decision/Moontasri/Faber Decision (+1206) .25u
Aldana Round 1/Perry Round 1 (+1587) .25u
Aldana+Smith Under 2.5/Emmett Decision/Moontasri ITD (+1893) .25u
Velickovic Decision/Sandoval Decision/Wineland KO (+2184) .25u
Miller Submission/Covington Submission (+2488) .25u
Covington Submission/Hirota Decision/Da Silva ITD (+3458) .25u
Moontasri Submission/Gall Submission (+3956) .1u
Perry ITD/Faber ITD/Northcutt ITD/VanZant ITD (+4449) .25u
Craig Submission/Miller Submission/Covington Submission (+13748) .1u
Moontasri Round 3/Covington Round 3 (+15500) .1u
Northcutt Submission/Waterson KO (+17914) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+328) 1u
Over 4.5 Fights End in Submission (+478) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+850) .5u
Perry+Jouban FOTN (+550) 1u
Sage Northcutt Wins Fastest Sub (+2500) .25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2575) .25u
Irene Aldana Wins Fastest KO (+3000) .5u

[KingHawkins]

Velickovic -160 (2.5x)
Moontasri -115 (2.5x)
Perry -130 (1x)
Northcutt +125 (1.5x)
PVZ -115 (3x)
PZV O 3.5 -245 Rnds (.5x)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looks like we like a lot of the same stuff King.

[JIBBBY]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Picks:
Bojan Velickovic Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Hector Sandoval Split Decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
Eddie Wineland Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Irene Aldana Round 1 TKO (Knee and Punches)
Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
James Moontasri Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Colby Covington Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mizuto Hirota Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Luis Henrique da Silva Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Punch)
Urijah Faber Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Paige VanZant Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Aggressive prop play.. I like.. I'm on alot of the same just more conservative.. GL!!!

[JIBBBY]

Like I said more conservative. ...

Fight #5 - Emmet by dec

Fight #6 - Moonstari straight

Fight #7 - Barberina straight.... Hedge with Covington by dec..

Fight #8 - Cole Miller straight

Fight #9 - Silva by ko/hedge Craig by sub

Fight #10 - Perry by ko..

[Shagdogy]

Like I said more conservative. ...

Fight #5 - Emmet by dec

Fight #6 - Moonstari straight

Fight #7 - Barberina straight.... Hedge with Covington by dec..

Fight #8 - Cole Miller straight

Fight #9 - Silva by ko/hedge Craig by sub

Fight #10 - Perry by ko..

Jibbs are these your picks or did you bet them? You confident enough in Miller to put your money behind him? I wasn't impressed at all by Hirota but betting on Cole Miller is just scary. I can't forgive him for that performance vs. Caceres.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbs are these your picks or did you bet them? You confident enough in Miller to put your money behind him? I wasn't impressed at all by Hirota but betting on Cole Miller is just scary. I can't forgive him for that performance vs. Caceres.

Yep they are all my personal picks.. Yes I bet them all as usual. . Just to lazy to copy and paste bets off 5dimes lately.. Sharing early since Hugo and I are pretty much on the same stuff.

Not super confident on Cole Miller but I think he will probably win.. He's a gamer and vet even though he is hit and miss. Asian fade theory in play for Jibs with this fight..

FS1



Cole
Miller
"Magrinho"
vs
Mizuto
Hirota
"Pugnus"

USA
Country
JAPAN

21-10-0, 1NC
Record
18-7-2

5%
KO/TKO
56%

71%
SUB
0%

24%
DEC
39%

73 in
Height
67 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

74 in
Reach
67 in

41 in
Leg Reach
40 in

[KingHawkins]

Looks like we like a lot of the same stuff King.

I like what I see in those bets (picks). Not too confident with Perry though. I might go over the top a little with Jouban. And I also forgot to add Pickett, I got him at +315 last night for $100. I knew my line was late to adjust though and I'd have a chance to freeroll a tiny bit when it did. Might ride some or most of it out though.

Regardless of the wagering, there are a few fights that should be really fun to see. And even better it starts soon so it ends earlier so I can still go out for a few hours tonight without missing any of the final fights (even though tonights main event is guaranteed to be pretty fkucing lame..... but yeah Good stuff on this thread as always, I for one really appreciate the input and analysis from all of the guys who really know this stuff intimately. Thanks! and I hope we all profit from this card.

[KingHawkins]

Any thoughts on Bernard "B-Hop" Hopkins vs. Joe "Who" Smith? I locked in some Smith by Dec +650 and parlayed a bit of same with PVZ for over 13 to 1. I hate to go against the great, but the value seems to be there.

[Shagdogy]

Velickovic -150, 5 units
Moontasri -112, 2 units
Holtzman +155, 1 unit
Serrano +105, 1 unit

Good luck everyone. Go Bojan!

[Rich Benjamins]

I see the fights likely going the same way. However, Sandoval showed bad takedown defense in his last fight, could be trouble against an olympic wrestler in Serrano. I just bet the over on that one.

Locked and loaded.. Early start - prelims start in a couple hours.. GL fellas!!!

How I'm playing the first few fights.. All small stuff early on.. 50-100 no hedging..

Fight #1 - Bajan by decision...

Fight #2 - Sandaval by decision...

Fight #3 - Eddie Wineland by KO..

Fight #4 - Aldana by KO, U2.5...


UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Bojan
Velickovic
"Serbian Steel"
vs
Sultan
Aliev

SERBIA
Country
RUSSIA

14-3-1
Record
13-2-0

21%
KO/TKO
77%

57%
SUB
0%

21%
DEC
23%

72 in
Height
72 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

76 in
Reach
74 in

41 in
Leg Reach
40 in

[KingHawkins]

terrible fight, Aliev will somehow probably get it with a pathetic performance.

[Shagdogy]

I'm dying watching this fight. Went big on Velickovic and IMO he's clearly better but Aliev is doing nothing but smother. Aliev has done no damage whatsoever, but gonna win anyway. Ugh. Damn. Spent the whole camp in Russia and comes in covered in acne... wonder what meds this guy was using to come back from his layoff? I'm bitter about it. Damn.

[rsynweap84]

terrible fight, Aliev will somehow probably get it with a pathetic performance.

More horrible from Bojan, never could get up let alone tried, can't bash Aliev for using his advantage.

[Shagdogy]

More horrible from Bojan, never could get up let alone tried, can't bash Aliev for using his advantage.

Watch Aliev's past fights and Bojan's... Bojan is good at scrambles and moving, and Aliev usually gets moved around on top and doesn't keep top position as easy. Didn't happen today though. I'm saying... after 2 years in Russia this guy comes back physically stronger?

[KingHawkins]

he did more damage and was more active from the bottom than Aliev did/was from the top.... neither did much.... lame ass fight

[Shagdogy]

he did more damage and was more active from the bottom than Aliev did/was from the top.... neither did much.... lame ass fight

Hard to work your BJJ when a roided cyborg is laying on you.

[rsynweap84]

Watch Aliev's past fights and Bojan's... Bojan is good at scrambles and moving, and Aliev usually gets moved around on top and doesn't keep top position as easy. Didn't happen today though. I'm saying... after 2 years in Russia this guy comes back physically stronger?

Der ya go bro, if someone loses by decision it's there fault, just like Diaz in his 2nd conor fight, doesn't matter bout his stats at the end, which actually were better overall, leave it decision...get fukk3d!

UFC judges are retards, always have been, always will be. Period.

[Shagdogy]

Der ya go bro, if someone loses by decision it's there fault, just like Diaz in his 2nd conor fight, doesn't matter bout his stats at the end, which actually were better overall, leave it decision...get fukk3d!

UFC judges are retards, always have been, always will be. Period.

One judge had 29-28 for Bojan. He seemed to realized Alieve did no damage. The other two 30-27. Oh well. These losses are what money management is for, right? Even if I lose it all... don't want to, but can live. Looks like I'm about to be 0-2 with Serrano.

[rsynweap84]

$1.25	$108.55	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Win	12/17/16 3:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Sultan Aliev +140* vs Bojan Velickovic
				Pending	12/17/16 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1933 Aldana wins by TKO/KO +220* vs Fight not a draw
				Pending	12/17/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2033 Wineland wins by TKO/KO +275* vs Any other result
				Pending	12/17/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2107 Sandoval wins by 3 round decision +205* vs Not Sandoval by 3 round decision

[JIBBBY]

Eddie by KO.. Easy money right there.. ... Asian fade theory holds true once again..

[Sanity Check]

$1.25	$108.55	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Win	12/17/16 3:30pm UFC Fighting 2201 Sultan Aliev +140* vs Bojan Velickovic
				Pending	12/17/16 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1933 Aldana wins by TKO/KO +220* vs Fight not a draw
				Pending	12/17/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2033 Wineland wins by TKO/KO +275* vs Any other result
				Pending	12/17/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2107 Sandoval wins by 3 round decision +205* vs Not Sandoval by 3 round decision

Nice calls.

You only need 1 more.

[Rich Benjamins]

Nice 1, Jibbs! Asian fade is a lock

Eddie by KO.. Easy money right there.. ... Asian fade theory holds true once again..

[rsynweap84]

Nice calls.

You only need 1 more.

I kno, but I just hate that it's girls, and its a debut...whhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?!?

[JIBBBY]

Fox tv this works ... Need the under 2.5 in this next chick fight..

[Sanity Check]

I parlayed Aldana ML with Atlanta Falcons ML on sunday for lols.

[UncleChael]

Finally a chick fight that I actually wanna watch fight.. Great 1st round.

[rsynweap84]

Ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaccccccccccccccccccccccc ccccccccccccccccccccccccccc!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sanity Check]

Leslie Smith got round 1 but she is slowing down more than Aldana.

[Ty$]

All I'm saying is Barberena by decision +800 and Hugo which post are your plays bro???

[Ty$]

Aldana looking like trash against a turd