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Was hoping to get Covington -3.5 at around (+100), since it opened at (+125) against Meunier (a fight with a similar moneyline, ITD, and decision props). It would have been one of my biggest bets ever at those odds. At (-175) I still like it, but not quite as much. Provided he doesn't get KO'ed early Covington should win this fight easily and will have a good chance at getting a finish.
Means should win as well but will have to avoid Homasi's power, especially early.Comment -
so much for conor being an ''amazing'' trashtalker, and quick witted. stealing lines from scarface and 2-pac's hit em up? really now son?
that shit is embarassing.Comment -
Nate has over 20 fights and 10 years in the ufc.. You think Conner can make up for that in 1 camp? Hell noComment -
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Plekz shut the penetrate up about the negative comments bud literally every single comment I've read from you is negative lol, how hard can you be on somebody's nuts for a fight Jesus Nate Diaz is a cool guy but it's blatantly obvious you're just hating on mcgregor now , how can you hate on a guy who would literally fight Brock lesnar if they asked, has never turned down a short noticed fight something you can't say for a ton of fighters, is easily a top 3 trash talker in the UFC but somehow he's not a true fighter and has terrible trash talk game
you're so delusional its hurts to read ... Guy said 3 things penetrate the Diaz brothers and I'm ready to fight ... Don't think he was trying to impress you with his trash talk dudes hilarious saying he was in fear for his life I know a ton of people who thought that was entertaining . Hope you got a huge can of air for your bets this weekend loser
and Hugo I'll have to check props on Covington I like him to win for sure though , I got a few different 2 fight parlays going that I really likeComment -
it's also blatantly obvious that you'd drop and suck conor's c'ck if he asked you to, since you've made excuses for every single part of his persona that paints him in a negative light. what sort of fanboy crush are you carrying for the man? i'm not even a diaz fan in terms of style, but i respect him because what he portrays is who he is, and he embraces it.
he isn't trying to play a character on tv, like the very apparently fake conor. and why the fck would you respect someone arrogant enough to step up a fight someone who'd weigh as much as brock lesnar? there's no respect in that, that's just being dumb bordering on ignorance.
could liken it with icarus who flew to close to the sun.
and it was very apparent that he stole lines verbatim from scarface and hit em up, in the way he phrased it. better if you just accept it that your hero rips other peoples material (and actually reherses it)Last edited by plekz; 08-19-16, 10:59 AM.Comment -
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Few things to think about tonight/tomorrow:
Lim-1st time back to the states since 2013..Last loss was to Magny-(on same card)-who has 4 fights since..
Lobov--They hand picked a guy for him to beat IMO-RIGHT?
Magny-last 3 wins over (Erik Silva, Gastelum, Lombard)-Does Larkin Bring anything those guys didn't?
Garbrandt-We all expect a W----Is the -560 too much?
Means-Is there any reason to think he does not cruise to a victory?
Can Rumble keep cool after round 1 if he does not finish?--The is Glover Tex---not Bader or Manuwa...
Thoughts?Comment -
Lim: I like the under best for this bout. Both guys have good power and will likely stand-and-bang
Lobov: Neither guy is very good. Lobov is probably the worst FW on the UFC roster coming into this fight but Avila has lost twice on the regional circuit. Both guys seem pretty tough so I'm playing fight goes to decision.
Garbrandt: He should win but the price is ridiculous. This is a dog-or-prop spot. I like the value on Mizugaki + Decision for small
Means: Should win as well but the juice is too much to lay. Maybe look at Means R2 and R3 props since Homasi has been finished in 4/5 losses and all were in the 2nd and 3rd round.
Rumble: Tex very tough to finish but Rumble has ridiculous power. If Tex can get away from his tendency to take shots in order to land, I think he can use his wrestling and jitz to get the win.Comment -
Rooting for Takeya, but Cody could go for the kill early to try to one up Dom when he finished Takeya in the 1st. Same common opponent and he won't take chances this fight going the distance. So I really expect Cody to go all-in once he tags Takeya, and his only chances are to survive Cody's onslaught which many haven't been able to do. Under 1.5 might be a good play at plus +130 odds. Or Cody by KO -149 is better than laying the huge chalk at -500.Comment -
Diaz Scorecards = No Action is back up to (+123). I think that's the best bet available for that fightLast edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-19-16, 03:33 PM.Comment -
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I think the jap has a little value for TKO at +1100 they say Cody has a glass jawComment -
McGregor-Diaz Analysis and Pick...
Well, personally I hope Nate breaks this fuuckers legs. However, it's been a long time since I placed anything other than a recreational-sized wager with my heart.
Connor was a consensus -400 five months ago at the first fight bell. Checking my three online books, 5dimes give the best odds on Connor at -125... that's 375 points lower than the same fighters odds only 5 months ago!
The best odds for Nate are +115.
There is TREMENDOUS value on Connor for this fight. As much as I hate to say it.
The smart play here is McGregor -125 for 2 units.Comment -
yup, uh huh. full camp, got it. first time I've heard of this full camp theory from a Nate supporter. astounding break down.Originally Posted by BetweenHerCheeks
Mcgregor hit Nate flush with two round houses and one huge kick in the same spot....NATE JUST LAUGHED AT HIM...wtf do you think Nate's gonna do to him with a full camp?
Hope they have an ambulance on site and a good trauma center nearby
5 bills on Nate...will wait right before fight when all of Connor's assplay brothers start pounding him
You fuucking dumbass, Nate practically rolled outta bed a few days before the fight with no training and a gut and beat that Irish kunt into submission. Nate's gonna kill him with a camp.Comment -
UFC 202 Picks:
Alberto Uda Rd 1 TKO
Colby Covington Round 2 Submission
Neil Magny Unanimous Decision
Randa Markos Unanimous Decision
Chris Avila Unanimous Decision
Raquel Pennington Unanimous Decision
Cody Garbrandt Unanimous Decision
Tim Means Rd 2 TKO
Hyun Gyu Lim Rd 1 TKO
Donald Cerrone Unanimous Decision
Anthony Johnson Unanimous Decision
Nate Diaz Unanimous DecisionLast edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-19-16, 08:00 PM.Comment -
UFC 202 Plays:
Fight #1: Uda vs. Vettori (DEBUT)
Uda (+150) 1.5u
Uda Scorecards = NA (+155) 1.5u
Uda KO/TKO (+435) .5u
Fight #2: Covington vs. Griffin (DEBUT)
Covington -3.5 (-175) 4.375u to win 2.5u
Covington/Griffin Under 2.5 Rounds (+150) 1u
Covington ITD (+239) 1u
Covington Round 3 (+1000) .25u
Hedge(s):
Griffin KO/TKO (+760) .5u
Griffin KO/TKO (+870) .25u
Griffin Round 1 (+1050) .25u
Fight #3: Magny vs. Larkin
Fight Goes Distance (-180) 3.9u to win 2u
Magny (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
Magny Round 3 (+1475) .5u
Fight #4: Markos vs. Casey
Markos Dec (+152) 2u
Markos Round 3 (+1600) .25u
Hedge:
Casey ITD (+355) 1u
Fight #5: Lobov vs. Avila (DEBUT)
Fight Goes Distance (+115) 1u
Avila (+110) 1u
Avila Decision (+316) .5u
Hedge:
Lobov Decision (+470) .5u
Fight #6: Pennington vs. Phillips
No Play
Fight #7: Garbrandt vs. Mizugaki
Mizugaki (+400) 1u
Mizugaki (+450) .5u
Mizugaki Decision (+740) .25u
Hedge:
Garbrandt Decision (+251) 1u
Fight #8: Means vs. Homasi (DEBUT)
Means Round 2 (+400) .75u
Means Round 3 (+700) .5u
Hedge:
Homasi Sub (+1455) .25u
Fight #9: Lim vs. Perry (DEBUT)
Lim ITD (-136) 1.36u to win 1u
Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
Hedge:
Perry KO/TKO (+510) .5u
Fight #10: Cerrone vs. Story
Cerrone (-150) 4.5u to win 3u
Fight Goes Distance (-145) 2.9u to win 2u
Cerrone -3.5 (+120) .5u
Cerrone Decision (+219) .5u
Hedge(s):
Story KO/TKO (+620) .5u
Story KO/TKO (+670) .25u
Fight #11: Johnson vs. Teixeira
Fight Goes Distance (+250) .5u
Texeira Decision (+670) .25u
Teixeira ITD (+416) .625u
Teixeira Round 2 (+975) .25u
Teixeira Round 3 (+1500) .375u
Hedge:
Johnson Decision (+570) 1u
Fight #12: Diaz vs. McGregor II
Diaz Scorecards = No Action (+122) 5u
Diaz ITD (+170) 2.5u
Fight Starts Round 3 (-112) 2.24u to win 2u
Fight Goes Distance (+310) 1u
Fight Goes Distance (+350) 1u
Diaz Decision (+1044) 1u
Diaz Unanimous Decision (+1400) .5u
Hedge(s):
McGregor Round 2 (+675) 1.25u
McGregor Round 3 (+1075) .75u
McGregor Decision (+524) .25u
McGregor Decision (+630) .25u
McGregor Unanimous Decision (+855) .25u
Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+136) 1u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+361) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1036) .375u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3250) .125uLast edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-19-16, 08:01 PM.Comment -
UFC 202 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Hyun Gyu Lim ($11,100)
Cody Garbrandt ($10,300)
Donald Cerrone ($10,000)
Nate Diaz ($9,200)
Raquel Pennington ($9,200)Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 08-19-16, 08:01 PM.Comment -
Very creative play here.. I like it hugo.. That's taking prop hedging to a whole new level. A bunch of others I see too...
.....
Fight #1: Uda vs. Vettori (DEBUT)
Uda (+150) 1.5u
Uda Scorecards = NA (+155) 1.5u
Uda KO/TKO (+435) .5u
GL!!!
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Thanks man. Haven't heard too many people picking Uda so we'll see how this one works out.Comment -
Weigh ins live...
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What did you end up playing for this event?Comment -
That's not a hedge bet but it's good structured prop betting for value overall is what I ment to say for that bet... I'm starting see the value in the Scorecards= NA props..
I play a couple of those props which each card now and have been hitting those along with you.... Hugo you brought those to my attention thanks bud!!
I liked this one a lot and played it with you when you first mentioned it a week ago..
Diaz Scorecards = No Action (+122)Comment -
Sure man. Hoping we both kill this event!That's not a hedge bet but it's good structured prop betting for value overall is what I ment to say for that bet... I'm starting see the value in the Scorecards= NA props..
I play a couple of those props which each card now and have been hitting those along with you.... Hugo you brought those to my attention thanks bud!!
I liked this one a lot and played it with you when you first mentioned it a week ago..
Diaz Scorecards = No Action (+122)Comment -
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Somebody give me the story on gyu lim vs Perry ...Comment -
Cowboy & Diaz looks like the play though .. Should be a fun one
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