Future Fights Thread

[Hugo de Naranja]

Definitely... we're all here to win. We help each other if we post ahead of time and we can see where we are each strong. I've only really been good about this for the past 5 cards, and I've won on 4 of them. I know there will be ups and downs but since I've recommitted to doing MMA right, I've had a good run.

In the interest of starting 2017 off right, what are some of your basic, most successful guidelines? A couple rules to live by for me:
* Never chase bets during a card. Get all bets in ahead of time and see what happens.
* Never bet fights solely on wikipedia research and MMA-math. Watch tape. Set your own line. Bet value.
* When you watch old fights, trust your eyes, even if you disagree with everyone else here. Trust what you see and make YOUR play.

What do you guys do that's successful for you? I'm gonna be in Vegas for this first fight card... gotta start off strong!

I like all your guidelines.

For me,
* Don't bet favorites that are (-200) or more straight. Use parlays if you really like big favorites.
* Be open to all different types of props available. Sometimes obscure props like method of victory, round props, or even full card props offer great value.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i just enjoy giving my insight on fights here and talking mma, not here for any glory or anything tbh... i actually sell some of my picks to people so i dont really give out picks here i just say who i like before the card and my thoughts of the fights usually before i look at the stats or anything like that just by the eye test... In my experience i like picking 2-5 fights max each card that i like and going with my strongest intuitions i dont like betting every fight on the card because theres so many new fighters each card some ive never had the time to even watch or have only seen 1-2 times which isnt enough data for me , but i agree people who boast and talk crap saying they bet somebody after the fight has happened is annoying , say who you like before the fight if you want to say your opinion after the fact or you just look stupid... Plenty of people think they know mma and betting but its not about making money on one card when theres dozens a year, its about making a solid ROI yearly and enjoying the sport we love for me imo

cheers to a solid 2016, hopefully more money comes 2017

Good point Fire. Best of luck this year.

[firekillex]

Good point Fire. Best of luck this year.

youre basically the only guy on here that i constantly agree with on your points hugo so cheers to that haha buddy
added a bit more to my points, but ya overall ill stick here and talk mma/future matchups can never get bored of that

i usually put early leans on who i like in the threads , sometimes just forget haha i just dont like throwing all my bets out there i can be superstitious

[Hugo de Naranja]

youre basically the only guy on here that i constantly agree with on your points hugo so cheers to that haha buddy
added a bit more to my points, but ya overall ill stick here and talk mma/future matchups can never get bored of that

i usually put early leans on who i like in the threads , sometimes just forget haha i just dont like throwing all my bets out there i can be superstitious

Good points on the betting calculator. That's an important aspect of my capping as well.

[Shagdogy]

In my experience i like picking 2-5 fights max each card that i like and going with my strongest intuitions i dont like betting every fight on the card because theres so many new fighters each card some ive never had the time to even watch or have only seen 1-2 times which isnt enough data for me

This is the one area where I've found that I can find the best value on straight bets... there's so many new fighters that if you can do a little research ahead of time you can find some lines that aren't very sharp on the lesser known undercard guys.

Another situation that is always helpful are the guys who get picked up off of "Looking for a Fight" series or come in with some pre-packaged popularity like CM Punk. You always get a good line against those guys very early in their careers because so many people are willing to believe the hype.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is the one area where I've found that I can find the best value on straight bets... there's so many new fighters that if you can do a little research ahead of time you can find some lines that aren't very sharp on the lesser known undercard guys.

Another situation that is always helpful are the guys who get picked up off of "Looking for a Fight" series or come in with some pre-packaged popularity like CM Punk. You always get a good line against those guys very early in their careers because so many people are willing to believe the hype.

Yeah I've faded most everyone from that show with some success.

[firekillex]

cant disagree with that statement shagy. Betting is just betting against the public, since the public is basically giving the final odds at the end of the day and the bookie is just shaving off the extra off the lines... aka when a pick em is -110 each theyre getting the -10 regardless of winner . And i agree on the point that betting against big hyped up names is usually profitable since the public throws a crap load of money blindly tailing them when they havent even watched them fight. Always good to make small tinkers in your strategies but if youre making profit long term dont fix whats not broken imo.. But im always open to hearing new strategies and points as well gotta be open to new things or youll be left in the past just like mma in general as a sport

[PaperTrail07]

Key for me is to not chase.....Bad event turns HORRIBLE QUICK

I like all your guidelines.

For me,
* Don't bet favorites that are (-200) or more straight. Use parlays if you really like big favorites.
* Be open to all different types of props available. Sometimes obscure props like method of victory, round props, or even full card props offer great value.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Key for me is to not chase.....Bad event turns HORRIBLE QUICK

Yeah I've seen people do that before and get crushed.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Caraway pulls out against Rivera due to an injury.

[firekillex]

Caraway pulls out against Rivera due to an injury.

Lolll must've pulled his vagina .. hopefully they don't give him somebody easy after this he's a notorious opponent picker and always goes for easier matchups .. surprised he even took this one tbh

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lolll must've pulled his vagina .. hopefully they don't give him somebody easy after this he's a notorious opponent picker and always goes for easier matchups .. surprised he even took this one tbh

Yeah damn. Wonder if Rivera will get a short notice replacement or they'll scrap it entirely.

[firekillex]

Yeah damn. Wonder if Rivera will get a short notice replacement or they'll scrap it entirely.

still some time , doubt any big name would step up to face a guy like that though
i was hoping he could beat caraway get a top 4 guy then possibly challenge for a title soon... dude has a ton of talent like to see how hed fair with the big names him versus lineker would be crazy in the future

[Hugo de Naranja]

still some time , doubt any big name would step up to face a guy like that though
i was hoping he could beat caraway get a top 4 guy then possibly challenge for a title soon... dude has a ton of talent like to see how hed fair with the big names him versus lineker would be crazy in the future

Yeah for sure. Lineker against pretty much any top 15 BW excites me. I'd especially like to see him against Rivera, Assuncao, Almeida etc.

[firekillex]

Yeah for sure. Lineker against pretty much any top 15 BW excites me. I'd especially like to see him against Rivera, Assuncao, Almeida etc.

i like him vs almeida most next tbh, assuncao vs sterling is coming up and i doubt rivera would want to take a guy outside the top 10 so fight will probably be scraped.. man i dont like caraway at all what a bum

[Broxbomber]

2017 Scoring Changes - 10-8 Rounds and Draws

Very good discussion going on. Ego is being put aside and people are working together and showing respect. Good to see.

What are people's thoughts on the new scoring criteria for 10-8 rounds? I believe that they will occur more often which could lead to more draws being scored than in the past. I believe that there may be value in going for draws during live betting. Odds for a draw on Bet365 are typically about +6600 which is a huge return for very little risk.

Here is a fantastic article explaining the rule changes for scoring 10-8 rounds. Lots of great insight on the new scoring.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/1/2/14142858/2017-unified-rules-10-8-judging-criteria-explained-hinds-bell-mma-interview

Thoughts?

[Hugo de Naranja]

i like him vs almeida most next tbh, assuncao vs sterling is coming up and i doubt rivera would want to take a guy outside the top 10 so fight will probably be scraped.. man i dont like caraway at all what a bum

I think I'd take JL pretty big against Almeida. He can out-brawl anyone.

[Shagdogy]

^^ First thing that comes to mind is that this will favor guys who are good at taking the back with their BJJ, and smothering lay and pray wrestlers. Neither one is especially exciting so I can't say I'm really in favor of a guy winning 10-8 if he takes someone's back, puts in a body triangle, and rides out 3.5 minutes of the round failing to secure 45 RNC attempts. Or, for example, Chael Sonnon vs. Anderson Silva in their first fight probably woulda won a couple rounds 10-8 from inside of Silva's guard. No thanks. 10-9 will do for me in those situations.

I also really wish that there was discussion of 10-10 rounds in the new rules as well. Fighters keep getting better and better which means there will be more evenly matched fights and they will have harder times putting each other away because they are so evenly skilled. I hate it when it's only a 3 round fight and the two fighters come out dead even in round one, but every judge feels like they have to award SOMEONE the round 10-9. They are so hesitant to use 10-10.

[Broxbomber]

^^ First thing that comes to mind is that this will favor guys who are good at taking the back with their BJJ, and smothering lay and pray wrestlers. Neither one is especially exciting so I can't say I'm really in favor of a guy winning 10-8 if he takes someone's back, puts in a body triangle, and rides out 3.5 minutes of the round failing to secure 45 RNC attempts. Or, for example, Chael Sonnon vs. Anderson Silva in their first fight probably woulda won a couple rounds 10-8 from inside of Silva's guard. No thanks. 10-9 will do for me in those situations.

I also really wish that there was discussion of 10-10 rounds in the new rules as well. Fighters keep getting better and better which means there will be more evenly matched fights and they will have harder times putting each other away because they are so evenly skilled. I hate it when it's only a 3 round fight and the two fighters come out dead even in round one, but every judge feels like they have to award SOMEONE the round 10-9. They are so hesitant to use 10-10.

While I agree with the 10-10 round scoring, the point that I was hoping to focus on was the probability of draws occurring when 10-8 rounds have occurred. I think it is a prime opportunity during live betting when a 10-8 round has been scored, but the fight is starting to turn the other way (fight A blows his load trying finish fighter B in the first round, fighter A gets a 10-8 round, but fighter A is gassed coming out in the second round). I know it is a pretty specific situation, but one that is fairly visible during the fight.

I live bet Cejudo vs Benavitez as a draw at +6600 after the point deduction for the low blow (10-8 round) as the math works for a draw when a 10-8) round is scored. Even though it lost, I felt great about the bet as my $25 bet would have paid $1600 (or something like that). You only need to be right 3% of the time after seeing a 10-8 round turn into a draw to make a very good profit.

Hopefully this is coming out clear, and not some rambling.

[Hugo de Naranja]

While I agree with the 10-10 round scoring, the point that I was hoping to focus on was the probability of draws occurring when 10-8 rounds have occurred. I think it is a prime opportunity during live betting when a 10-8 round has been scored, but the fight is starting to turn the other way (fight A blows his load trying finish fighter B in the first round, fighter A gets a 10-8 round, but fighter A is gassed coming out in the second round). I know it is a pretty specific situation, but one that is fairly visible during the fight.

I live bet Cejudo vs Benavitez as a draw at +6600 after the point deduction for the low blow (10-8 round) as the math works for a draw when a 10-8) round is scored. Even though it lost, I felt great about the bet as my $25 bet would have paid $1600 (or something like that). You only need to be right 3% of the time after seeing a 10-8 round turn into a draw to make a very good profit.

Hopefully this is coming out clear, and not some rambling.

I like the idea. Unfortunately, the book I use doesn't allow live-betting draws. I'll probably pre-fight more draws though.

[getlucky2win]

Ufc needs to change scoring. Old system they adopted from boxing doesn't work well

[firekillex]

While I agree with the 10-10 round scoring, the point that I was hoping to focus on was the probability of draws occurring when 10-8 rounds have occurred. I think it is a prime opportunity during live betting when a 10-8 round has been scored, but the fight is starting to turn the other way (fight A blows his load trying finish fighter B in the first round, fighter A gets a 10-8 round, but fighter A is gassed coming out in the second round). I know it is a pretty specific situation, but one that is fairly visible during the fight.
Hopefully this is coming out clear, and not some rambling.

makes sense, books would probably catch on after a few cards but could be solid to exploit this for a few cards

id like to see some changing of the scoring system though, its more about racking up points in a fight now then actually winning the fight ... you can win 2 rounds by the slimest margin ever and get absolutely mauled for a round and still come out with the win which doesnt always make sense .. I liked the pride judging system more but if scoring is changed the fighters strategies would change as well.. I also dont like how much a takedown is scored for when either A the opponent pops right back up or B the guy is on bottom landing much cleaner / harder shots then the guy ontop .. the judges have been getting better at this lately though, example the neil magny vs johnny hendricks fight last weekend was a prime example how the judges are getting better

[Hugo de Naranja]

makes sense, books would probably catch on after a few cards but could be solid to exploit this for a few cards

id like to see some changing of the scoring system though, its more about racking up points in a fight now then actually winning the fight ... You can win 2 rounds by the slimest margin ever and get absolutely mauled for a round and still come out with the win which doesnt always make sense .. I liked the pride judging system more but if scoring is changed the fighters strategies would change as well.. I also dont like how much a takedown is scored for when either a the opponent pops right back up or b the guy is on bottom landing much cleaner / harder shots then the guy ontop .. The judges have been getting better at this lately though, example the neil magny vs johnny hendricks fight last weekend was a prime example how the judges are getting better

pride rules ftw!

[Shagdogy]

pride rules ftw!

Yup. And I'd love to see 10min first round.

[getlucky2win]

Old school rules. No rounds. No weight divisions. No eye gouging. No fish hooks. That is all

[Hugo de Naranja]

Old school rules. No rounds. No weight divisions. No eye gouging. No fish hooks. That is all

Rizin is kind of like this lol.

[firekillex]

Rizin is kind of like this lol.

Rizin the freak show , that'll never happen when the UFC is trying to be a legitmate sport
Japan is the only place that'll hold a 6 foot + hulk tranny with a 4 inch clit vs a 65 year old wrestler grandma

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rizin the freak show , that'll never happen when the UFC is trying to be a legitmate sport
Japan is the only place that'll hold a 6 foot + hulk tranny with a 4 inch clit vs a 65 year old wrestler grandma

That fight was fuckingg hilarious

[firekillex]

That fight was fuckingg hilarious

Lmaoooo she literally looks like the fckin hulk.... then another poor soul comes out and challenges her
cyborg would maul her imo , terrible stand up but she's just way to big

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jacare to fight Boetsch at UFC 208 in Brooklyn. Are any other SBR posters going to be there? I'm bummed that we're not getting Holloway/Aldo but it should still be a decent card.

[firekillex]

Jacare to fight Boetsch at UFC 208 in Brooklyn. Are any other SBR posters going to be there? I'm bummed that we're not getting Holloway/Aldo but it should still be a decent card.

Wtf does the UFC have against jacare ?? Dude should be fighting for a title and he's fighting boetsch lol jeeze that's terrible matchmaking imo.. he's just gonna starch him like camozzi x2

sucks Holloway / Aldo isn't happening that would be fireworks

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wtf does the UFC have against jacare ?? Dude should be fighting for a title and he's fighting boetsch lol jeeze that's terrible matchmaking imo.. he's just gonna starch him like camozzi x2

sucks Holloway / Aldo isn't happening that would be fireworks

I think this will be a tune-up for Jacare and then he'll get Rockhold when he comes back from injury. Holloway/Aldo will hopefully happen sometime in the next few months though.

[PaperTrail07]

Said the same thing for along time now......when they put him up against Romero I knew how they felt about him....its like they want someone who can speak English lol....

Wtf does the UFC have against jacare ?? Dude should be fighting for a title and he's fighting boetsch lol jeeze that's terrible matchmaking imo.. he's just gonna starch him like camozzi x2

sucks Holloway / Aldo isn't happening that would be fireworks

[PaperTrail07]

I bet if you asked him behind the scenes lol he is honored to be mentioned with Souza LOL.....guy is fading BAD and he knws he is lucky to have a job LOL....the Samman Win kept him around.....RIP

Wtf does the UFC have against jacare ?? Dude should be fighting for a title and he's fighting boetsch lol jeeze that's terrible matchmaking imo.. he's just gonna starch him like camozzi x2

sucks Holloway / Aldo isn't happening that would be fireworks

[Hugo de Naranja]

Said the same thing for along time now......when they put him up against Romero I knew how they felt about him....its like they want someone who can speak English lol....

That's possible haha