Hugo's Prop Picks

**CaptChaos145** · 04-29-16, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey guys, here are some props I like for fights coming up in the next few months. All are + odds and imo undervalued. Let me know what you think.

Tumenov Decision (+240)
Miocic / Werdum goes 5 round distance (+168)
Belfort in Rd 1 (+560)
Smith / Justino starts round 2 (+134)
Smith / Justino goes 3 round distance (+900)
Almeida wins by submission (+779)
Barao wins inside distance (+515)
Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO (+495)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 4 (+1900)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 (+2400)
Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 rd unanimous dec (+170)
Velasquez wins by 3 round decision (+272)

Like:
Belfort Rd 1 - worth a shot at those odds. If he doesn't finish Jacare fast Jacare should win.
Joanna - I like all of those. I think Claudia will be tired from all the TD attempts and Joanna can finish her late in the fight.

Don't like:
Werdum/Miocic by dec at those odds.
Cyborg should finish Smith in the 1st. Cyborg will be too big and strong and aggressive.
Barao inside the distance (3 rounder.) Not too bad at those odds.
Cain - I think he finishes or gets finished before the end of the fight.

Just my thoughts

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-29-16, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Like:
Belfort Rd 1 - worth a shot at those odds. If he doesn't finish Jacare fast Jacare should win.
Joanna - I like all of those. I think Claudia will be tired from all the TD attempts and Joanna can finish her late in the fight.

Don't like:
Werdum/Miocic by dec at those odds.
Cyborg should finish Smith in the 1st. Cyborg will be too big and strong and aggressive.
Barao inside the distance (3 rounder.) Not too bad at those odds.
Cain - I think he finishes or gets finished before the end of the fight.

Just my thoughts

If Belfort wins, I think it will be in the first round so it seems like value at those odds.

Love these Joanna bets I'm going to be big on them.

Maybe Over 2.5 would be a better play for the Werdum fight? I don't see that one finishing early.

Cyborg will be cutting to 140 and I think this will take some energy out of her. Smith is pretty tough, having only being finished once in her career due to a doctor stoppage.

Although Barao has lost a 2 of his last 3, the guy finishes fights and he gets a finish here way more than 20% of the time imo.

After losing to Werdum, I think Cain will come back and fight cautious, using his wrestling to cruise to a unanimous decision.

**Rich Benjamins** · 04-30-16, 09:19 AM

I like how you're taking the + odds bets.

I like the Tumenov decision and Velasquez decision.

I also think Barao and Jedrzejczyk go to decision. Barao is fighting a bigger man, tougher to take out. We saw that with the McGregor/Diaz fight.
Jedrzejczyk is fighting a tougher opponent than her last one, and the last fight went to a decision. The strawweights are very small so they don't hit as hard. But you are getting good odds, and that's for a reason, it's a long shot.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 04-30-16, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I like how you're taking the + odds bets.

I like the Tumenov decision and Velasquez decision.

I also think Barao and Jedrzejczyk go to decision. Barao is fighting a bigger man, tougher to take out. We saw that with the McGregor/Diaz fight.
Jedrzejczyk is fighting a tougher opponent than her last one, and the last fight went to a decision. The strawweights are very small so they don't hit as hard. But you are getting good odds, and that's for a reason, it's a long shot.

Rich:
I like the points that you made. I agree that the most likely outcomes in the Barao and Jedrzejczyk fights are decisions. However, Barao is a finisher and not having to make the tough cut down to 135 will give him more energy. Stephens is a tough guy to finish but I think Barao will come out with a point to prove and really swing for the fences. Also, odds on ITD (+515) are barely worse than Barao submission (+574) even though Barao KO/TKO is (+385).

My reasons for the Jedrzejczyk bets are similar to Josh's logic on Mighty Mouse finishing Cejudo late. Gadelha is smaller and has not had much experience in 5-round fights. Add to that their intense rivalry and Joanna's cardio advantage and you've got the recipe for a late round TKO.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-01-16, 04:48 PM

Mousasi Decision (+231)

**JIBBBY** · 05-01-16, 05:43 PM

Quick thoughts on half your props Hugo... Just my opinion...

-Turmenov by decision might land but the Russian could maybe get the KO finish.. Gunnar is a bit over rated and I can see him getting tagged and finished perhaps.. I just like Turmenov on the straight myself.. At +240 though your decision play may be worth the shot.. It's a gamble though IMO.. Gunnars only pathway to victory IMO is by sub for a hedge..

- Belfort round 1 finish could hit and at +560 it might be worth a shot. We know Vitor comes out swinging in his fights.... Jacare could land and finish 39 year old Belfort himself as well. I'd lean more towards a safer bet at even odds "fight doesn't start the 2nd round" as either fighter could win this and probably will early on.. Belfort and Jacare have a lot of 1st round finishes between them both..

1138 Fight won’t start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_151" size="4"> -109

- Werdum and Stipe I don't think goes 5 rounds.. Betting the big guys to go the distance always makes me nervous. Stipe could get the KO, Werdum could get the sub or ko himself before the final bell.. I personally wouldn't play this at only +168

- Cyborg prop overs, while Smith is durable as hell and takes fights to decision mostly Cyborg is a wrecking ball and finishes most of her fights.. I'd lean towards Cyborg finishing Smith.. I do like you taking a shot at the "fight going the distance" at +900 but only because of those enormous odds.. GL..

I get back to the rest of your prop calls if you'd like me too.. Just don't have the time right now. I need to do a little research and dig a little deeper on those other props before I comment on them in other words...

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-01-16, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Quick thoughts on half your props Hugo... Just my opinion...

-Turmenov by decision might land but the Russian could maybe get the KO finish.. Gunnar is a bit over rated and I can see him getting tagged and finished perhaps.. I just like Turmenov on the straight myself.. At +240 though your decision play may be worth the shot.. It's a gamble though IMO.. Gunnars only pathway to victory IMO is by sub for a hedge..

- Belfort round 1 finish could hit and at +560 it might be worth a shot. We know Vitor comes out swinging in his fights.... Jacare could land and finish 39 year old Belfort himself as well. I'd lean more towards a safer bet at even odds "fight doesn't start the 2nd round" as either fighter could win this and probably will early on.. Belfort and Jacare have a lot of 1st round finishes between them both..

1138 Fight won’t start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_151" size="4"> -109

- Werdum and Stipe I don't think goes 5 rounds.. Betting the big guys to go the distance always makes me nervous. Stipe could get the KO, Werdum could get the sub or ko himself before the final bell.. I personally wouldn't play this at only +168

- Cyborg prop overs, while Smith is durable as hell and takes fights to decision mostly Cyborg is a wrecking ball and finishes most of her fights.. I'd lean towards Cyborg finishing Smith.. I do like you taking a shot at the "fight going the distance" at +900 but only because of those enormous odds.. GL..

I get back to the rest of your prop calls if you'd like me too.. Just don't have the time right now. I need to do a little research and dig a little deeper on those other props before I comment on them in other words...

My main play for that fight is Tumenov straight (4 units) but I think decision (1 unit) is slightly more likely than KO since Gunnar has a good chin. Should be fun to watch either way.

I see your point about the "Fight won't start round 2" bet but Vitor has all but one UFC victory in rd 1 (7/8) while Jacare has only half (3/6).

You might be right about Werdum/Stipe and perhaps I'll switch to something like over 2.5 or over 3.5. My logic was that in their entire careers, each man had only been finished once and I think they will come out more cautious since its a championship fight.

Hopefully Smith can at least make it out of the first round against Cyborg.

**JIBBBY** · 05-01-16, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

My main play for that fight is Tumenov straight (4 units) but I think decision (1 unit) is slightly more likely than KO since Gunnar has a good chin. Should be fun to watch either way.

I see your point about the "Fight won't start round 2" bet but Vitor has all but one UFC victory in rd 1 (7/8) while Jacare has only half (3/6).

You might be right about Werdum/Stipe and perhaps I'll switch to something like over 2.5 or over 3.5. My logic was that in their entire careers, each man had only been finished once and I think they will come out more cautious since its a championship fight.

Hopefully Smith can at least make it out of the first round against Cyborg.

Hugo a stat and numbers man I see..

I like that.. Really helps with prop play... You can grind and win over time playing just that...

Recent stats and fighter trends apply big time in MMA and at the UFC level.. I sherdog every fighter records looking for recent trends when capping as I think that is just or even more important then judging last fight vids, style match ups or fighter feels... Combine all though and you figure out fight outcomes more times then not...Just follow the bread crumbs bud.. Good post!!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-03-16, 05:01 PM

Maia wins by submission (+150)
Browne wins inside the distance (+405)
Thompson wins inside the distance (+169)
Thompson wins in round 4 (+1650)
Thompson wins in round 5 (+2450)

**CaptChaos145** · 05-03-16, 09:13 PM

Is there a max prop bet limit on 5Dimes? I used to see josh make a lot of $100 prop bets but I don't recall him ever going over that amount.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-09-16, 11:27 PM

Barao ITD down to +177, glad I slammed it at +515.

**bjpenn85** · 05-09-16, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Barao ITD down to +177, glad I slammed it at +515.

You can outstrike stephans for a decision win, but you cant finish him. He was finished for 4 years ago against edwards, but that was a fluke. Most other losses he goes to dec.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-09-16, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

You can outstrike stephans for a decision win, but you cant finish him. He was finished for 4 years ago against edwards, but that was a fluke. Most other losses he goes to dec.

Although I agree that Stephens is hard to finish, there was massive value in this prop at +515. Barao has a ton of finishes and won't be making the tough cut down to 145. Add to that his submission skills and you have yourself a great bet.

**bjpenn85** · 05-10-16, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Although I agree that Stephens is hard to finish, there was massive value in this prop at +515. Barao has a ton of finishes and won't be making the tough cut down to 145. Add to that his submission skills and you have yourself a great bet.

Stephans does not get finished. Its like trying to bet against a diaz. Stephans is hard nosed and refuses to give up. He finished Bermudez in the 3.round. Guy doesnt give up. You can get +1500, still not worth a anything. These bets cut down on your profit. You should instead try to find things that are likely to happen. Stephans inside or KO is better. Stephans wasnt finished by pettis or cerrone. But you believe mini barao going to do anything to him? I think youve totally lost it. Even diaz was finished by a head kick, flukes happens, apart from that the rule of thumb is that stephans doesnt get finished. Just look at sherdog, it has literally no chance of hitting. Its pretty shocking that you can just visit a page for evidence of the bet beeing a brutally bad bet, and you still somehow landed on the wrong conclusion. Speechless..

**omalley21** · 05-10-16, 11:33 AM

Did they cancel your barao itd +515?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-10-16, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by omalley21

Did they cancel your barao itd +515?

Nope, it's still up as of now.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-11-16, 08:09 PM

Cerrone Submission (+450)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-30-16, 04:04 PM

2 Team Parlay:+171
Cruz by Decision (-165)
Jones/Cormier Over 4.5 Rounds (-145)

**bjpenn85** · 05-30-16, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Stephans does not get finished. Its like trying to bet against a diaz. Stephans is hard nosed and refuses to give up. He finished Bermudez in the 3.round. Guy doesnt give up. You can get +1500, still not worth a anything. These bets cut down on your profit. You should instead try to find things that are likely to happen. Stephans inside or KO is better. Stephans wasnt finished by pettis or cerrone. But you believe mini barao going to do anything to him? I think youve totally lost it. Even diaz was finished by a head kick, flukes happens, apart from that the rule of thumb is that stephans doesnt get finished. Just look at sherdog, it has literally no chance of hitting. Its pretty shocking that you can just visit a page for evidence of the bet beeing a brutally bad bet, and you still somehow landed on the wrong conclusion. Speechless..

It feels good to be a ganstah.....

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-31-16, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

It feels good to be a ganstah.....

Good call

**bjpenn85** · 05-31-16, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Good call

Thanks. But it doesnt feel like a good call, more an ecperience thing. After losing time and time again, betting on fighters that supposedly should win by KO that never does, or betting on people getting finished that are impossible to finish you learn. This weekend in particular people thought miranda would get the KO of camozzi, neglecting the fact that camozzi doesnt get finished by strikes, he simply doesnt. Sherdogs mma record are very helpful capping a fighters tendency to last a the distance. If a fighter doesnt get finished, its something mentally or physically that makes him capable of lasting. Then you should never make youself believe you have found a whole in this theory. For younger inexperienced fighters it may not be true, but for people like nate diaz, stephens, camozzi etc having fought years and years in the ufc, without getting finished? - Theres a f reason.

**bjpenn85** · 05-31-16, 01:54 AM

experience.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-31-16, 03:54 PM

Cruz by Unanimous Decision (+105)

**firekillex** · 05-31-16, 10:06 PM

+105 is a great price for cruz by decision, thought there would be a lot more juice on that

could be play of the night

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-31-16, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

+105 is a great price for cruz by decision, thought there would be a lot more juice on that

could be play of the night

The decisionator!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-02-16, 06:06 PM

Added a unit on Cruz UD (+115)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-02-16, 06:29 PM

Ortega by Submission (+145)

**Ty$** · 06-02-16, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey guys, here are some props I like for fights coming up in the next few months. All are + odds and imo undervalued. Let me know what you think.

Tumenov Decision (+240)
Miocic / Werdum goes 5 round distance (+168)
Belfort in Rd 1 (+560)
Smith / Justino starts round 2 (+134)
Smith / Justino goes 3 round distance (+900)
Almeida wins by submission (+779)
Barao wins inside distance (+515)
Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO (+495)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 4 (+1900)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 (+2400)
Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 rd unanimous dec (+170)
Velasquez wins by 3 round decision (+272)

How'd all those turn out then?? Haha

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-09-16, 05:33 PM

Zingano Inside the Distance (+239)
Lineker Decision (+318)
D. Johnson Inside the Distance (+145)

**CaptChaos145** · 06-10-16, 12:22 PM

I have a shot at this. Wish me luck!

$5.87	$499,456.13	Pending	9 Team Parlay
				Win	5/8/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1027 Overeem wins in round 2 +450* vs Any other result
				Win	5/14/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Souza wins inside distance -178* vs Not Souza inside distance
				Win	5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1531 Maia wins by submission +150* vs Any other result
				Win	5/14/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1221 Justino wins in round 1 -155* vs Any other result
				Cancelled	6/4/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 9999 Rockhold wins in round 3 +900* vs Any other result
				Win	6/4/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision
				Pending	7/8/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1033 Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 +2400* vs Any other result
				Pending	7/9/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Aldo wins by 5 round decision +255* vs Not Aldo by 5 round decision
				Pending	7/9/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Tate wins inside distance -145* vs Not Tate inside distance

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-10-16, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I have a shot at this. Wish me luck!

$5.87	$499,456.13	Pending	9 Team Parlay
				Win	5/8/16 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1027 Overeem wins in round 2 +450* vs Any other result
				Win	5/14/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Souza wins inside distance -178* vs Not Souza inside distance
				Win	5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1531 Maia wins by submission +150* vs Any other result
				Win	5/14/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1221 Justino wins in round 1 -155* vs Any other result
				Cancelled	6/4/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 9999 Rockhold wins in round 3 +900* vs Any other result
				Win	6/4/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision
				Pending	7/8/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1033 Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 +2400* vs Any other result
				Pending	7/9/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Aldo wins by 5 round decision +255* vs Not Aldo by 5 round decision
				Pending	7/9/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Tate wins inside distance -145* vs Not Tate inside distance

Looking great bud! Let's get this Jedrzejczyk round 5!

**JIBBBY** · 06-10-16, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Looking great bud! Let's get this Jedrzejczyk round 5!

That's the real long shot in that parlay.. I'm rooting for Capt to hit this though.. It would miraculous!!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 06-10-16, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

That's the real long shot in that parlay.. I'm rooting for Capt to hit this though.. It would miraculous!!!

Yup. KO/TKO definitely has a better chance of hitting but you can't hit a 100,000:1 parlay without a bit of luck. Any thoughts on the last few props I posted?

**CaptChaos145** · 06-10-16, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

That's the real long shot in that parlay.. I'm rooting for Capt to hit this though.. It would miraculous!!!

That parlay payout is a little deceiving though. The Rockhold bet was cancelled cause it was supposed to be his fight with Weidman. Since that bet is withdrawn the payout would be approximately $50k on the 8 remaining bets on the parlay.