JoshKnows Ufc 200

[JoshKnows46]

"3 years ago today, I began my crusade to take all you bums from 5 figure paydays to multi seven figure paydays.*
And not even a thank you."

Mcgregor +100/-110/-115/-125/-130/-135 risking $6250
Mcgregor wins in the 3rd +975 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 4th +1375 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 5th +2075 $100
Mcgregor wins by sub +2640 $100
Mcgregor wind by ko/tko +160 $100

[Pimp178]

"Mcgregor wins in the 3rd +975 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 4th +1375 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 5th +2075 $100"
MMmmm Interesting you go with McGregor on the late rounds, why is that Josh. You think Diaz Would fade faster then **, Or taking a chance ?

[JoshKnows46]

"Mcgregor wins in the 3rd +975 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 4th +1375 $100
Mcgregor wins in the 5th +2075 $100"
MMmmm Interesting you go with McGregor on the late rounds, why is that Josh. You think Diaz Would fade faster then **, Or taking a chance ?

I'm betting it the same way I bet it the first time, exept for 20 more units, feel mcgregor is too smart to come in with a terrible gameplan twice, I saw him brutalizing the body and legs in the first 2 rounds, and using more counters, letting diaz pressure him early, and finishing a less mobile diaz in the 3rd, i feel that's exactly what he'll do this time around. He rushed in and became a head hunter the first fight without istablishing his range. He was attacking the body till diaz hit him with a vicious body punch and he stopped after that, he mentioned this, he was notable gassed on his stool after the first, I have a good eye for when a guy is gassed, I believe that body punch attributed to this as he Quinced when it landed, also he had it in his mind that he was gonna finish late 1st, which I knew was more than wishful thinking, when it didn't come through that also took the winds out his sail. If a guy is close to finishing in the 1st, but doesnt, he goes on to lose over 80 percent of the time, recent examples are lombard, mcgregor, and junior against Daniel kelly, it gives the opp a huge boost in confidents and also deflates the other guy that couldn't finish, I believe mcgregor feel victim to this because he felt he hit diaz with his best shots, hell have a smarter more calculated gameplan the second time around. I also believe his ground game isn't bad as others think, and he will shoot for take downs in this fight, he was already finished and checked out mentally before he shot for the takedown in the 2nd. I feel he opens up in the 3rd once he takes away dias movement, threw injuring the body and legs of diaz. 2nd experience at this weight class, He has all the skills to make this a very easy fight for himself, the odds in the first fight are much more accurate then the odds currently up for the 2nd fight.

[bjpenn85]

I'm betting it the same way I bet it the first time, exept for 20 more units, feel mcgregor is too smart to come in with a terrible gameplan twice, I saw him brutalizing the body and legs in the first 2 rounds, and using more counters, letting diaz pressure him early, and finishing a less mobile diaz in the 3rd, i feel that's exactly what he'll do this time around. He rushed in and became a head hunter the first fight without istablishing his range. He was attacking the body till diaz hit him with a vicious body punch and he stopped after that, he mentioned this, he was notable gassed on his stool after the first, I have a good eye for when a guy is gassed, I believe that body punch attributed to this as he Quinced when it landed, also he had it in his mind that he was gonna finish late 1st, which I knew was more than wishful thinking, when it didn't come through that also took the winds out his sail. If a guy is close to finishing in the 1st, but doesnt, he goes on to lose over 80 percent of the time, recent examples are lombard, mcgregor, and junior against Daniel kelly, it gives the opp a huge boost in confidents and also deflates the other guy that couldn't finish, I believe mcgregor feel victim to this because he felt he hit diaz with his best shots, hell have a smarter more calculated gameplan the second time around. I also believe his ground game isn't bad as others think, and he will shoot for take downs in this fight, he was already finished and checked out mentally before he shot for the takedown in the 2nd. I feel he opens up in the 3rd once he takes away dias movement, threw injuring the body and legs of diaz. 2nd experience at this weight class, He has all the skills to make this a very easy fight for himself, the odds in the first fight are much more accurate then the odds currently up for the 2nd fight.

This is my thoughs exactly, its the opposite of what everyone believe is happening, but the advantage is mcregors. He now know everything he needs. He just need to tighten up is cardio. Dont gass himself out. He know he cant just KO diaz in the first round and that diaz taked a punch well. Only one problem though, is it wishful thinking? The fight will probably end up exactly like last time, diaz finishes mcregor but maybe in later rounds, or mcregors will adjust and finish diaz in the later rounds. Maybe the over is the best bet here, and not one fighter to win..

[Pimp178]

Fair enough, I might Stay Away from this one since I like Nate and I know McGregor it's not going to go at him the same way and gas himself out like you said. Might have to live bet this one, since I was thinking McGregor 1,2 then Nate 3,4. That's if McGregor does not go at him, cause I think Nate It's going to catch him like he did. Good insight though I do think McGregor is going to try to get the sub, since he has shit to prove. keep it up man.

[CaptChaos145]

You guys are insane. Nate has too much volume and his beard is too strong to be beat by this guy. McGregor try to sub? Nate's ground game is levels above McGregors.

You guys are getting caught up in the hype. Conor was tired after the 1st round against Mendes - watch the fight - watch him. His genetics may be playing a big role in his cardio. Conor has fought one 3 round fight in his career.

Every fighter Nate lost to has a better ground game than McGregor.

Not only will Nate win he will win easily.

Oh and Conor does not throw round house kicks which are the kicks that slow Nate down. Conor throws a lot of side and spinning kicks. He won't be able to punish the legs like Bendo or RDA.

Conor also beat a lot of guys mentally before the fight even started. Nate not only doesn't fold under that stuff but he now has a lot of confidancs going into the 2nd fight... oh and he'll have a lot of time to prepare. Horrible matchup for Conor!!!

[Ultimatemeatball]

I agree with the McGregor pick that he should win early but Diaz is tough as nails, clearly has more heart, length, stamina, and won last time with literally no training camp whatsoever. People forget MCGregor was also fading in the Mendes fight. That being said, I do believe Conor is the more intelligent fighter and he will come in with a calculated game plan vs the same old Diaz (victorious) with a full camp. The value here is with Conor.

[JoshKnows46]

You guys are insane. Nate has too much volume and his beard is too strong to be beat by this guy. McGregor try to sub? Nate's ground game is levels above McGregors.

You guys are getting caught up in the hype. Conor was tired after the 1st round against Mendes - watch the fight - watch him. His genetics may be playing a big role in his cardio. Conor has fought one 3 round fight in his career.

Every fighter Nate lost to has a better ground game than McGregor.

Not only will Nate win he will win easily.

Oh and Conor does not throw round house kicks which are the kicks that slow Nate down. Conor throws a lot of side and spinning kicks. He won't be able to punish the legs like Bendo or RDA.

Conor also beat a lot of guys mentally before the fight even started. Nate not only doesn't fold under that stuff but he now has a lot of confidancs going into the 2nd fight... oh and he'll have a lot of time to prepare. Horrible matchup for Conor!!!

You know i strongly disagree with everything you just said, We shall see...good luck captain

[CaptChaos145]

This is my thoughs exactly, its the opposite of what everyone believe is happening, but the advantage is mcregors. He now know everything he needs. He just need to tighten up is cardio. Dont gass himself out. He know he cant just KO diaz in the first round and that diaz taked a punch well. Only one problem though, is it wishful thinking? The fight will probably end up exactly like last time, diaz finishes mcregor but maybe in later rounds, or mcregors will adjust and finish diaz in the later rounds. Maybe the over is the best bet here, and not one fighter to win..

Diaz is a volume machine and he won't let up and Conor will get hit a lot in the process. Line should be -350 Diaz!

[CaptChaos145]

Pros and Cons of Nate & Conor

size - Nate
grappling - Nate
striking volume - Nate
cardio - Nate
toughness - Nate
chin - Nate
submissions - Nate
sub defence - Nate
reach - Nate
kicks - Conor
durability - Nate
experience - Nate

Conor would need to clip Nate like Josh Thompson did. It's his only way to win.

[CaptChaos145]

I agree with the McGregor pick that he should win early but Diaz is tough as nails, clearly has more heart, length, stamina, and won last time with literally no training camp whatsoever. People forget MCGregor was also fading in the Mendes fight. That being said, I do believe Conor is the more intelligent fighter and he will come in with a calculated game plan vs the same old Diaz (victorious) with a full camp. The value here is with Conor.

Conor can certainly come in with a better game plan but what is that exactly? He said he loaded up on his punches too early. Guess what? Those punches did not slow Nate down. Nate however will continue to throw a ton of volume and slow Conor down and break him. Watch the Nate Diaz/Marcus Davis fight. That is how this fight will play out!

[Bert102]

Mcgregor by submission has to be the biggest sucker bet I have heard.. mcg has one submission win against a bum belt. His 3 losses have been to submission.

[Ty$]

You guys are insane. Nate has too much volume and his beard is too strong to be beat by this guy. McGregor try to sub? Nate's ground game is levels above McGregors.

You guys are getting caught up in the hype. Conor was tired after the 1st round against Mendes - watch the fight - watch him. His genetics may be playing a big role in his cardio. Conor has fought one 3 round fight in his career.

Every fighter Nate lost to has a better ground game than McGregor.

Not only will Nate win he will win easily.

Oh and Conor does not throw round house kicks which are the kicks that slow Nate down. Conor throws a lot of side and spinning kicks. He won't be able to punish the legs like Bendo or RDA.

Conor also beat a lot of guys mentally before the fight even started. Nate not only doesn't fold under that stuff but he now has a lot of confidancs going into the 2nd fight... oh and he'll have a lot of time to prepare. Horrible matchup for Conor!!!

I agree 100% ... These guys are too big of fans not to bet on him... So many mac fanboys out there it's sickening... 209 mofos

[Droz37]

Pros and Cons of Nate & Conor

size - Nate
grappling - Nate
striking volume - Nate
cardio - Nate
toughness - Nate
chin - Nate
submissions - Nate
sub defence - Nate
reach - Nate
kicks - Conor
durability - Nate
experience - Nate

Conor would need to clip Nate like Josh Thompson did. It's his only way to win.

I think this fight is going to be longer as Connor will most likely learn from his mistakes in the first fight and pace himself and hope to slow Nat but for the reasons you stated CaptChaos, I'm going for Nate this time, IMO I think this fight will be pretty close but one or the other will get the best of the other ITD.

I'm on Nate

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think this fight is going to be longer as Connor will most likely learn from his mistakes in the first fight and pace himself and hope to slow Nat but for the reasons you stated CaptChaos, I'm going for Nate this time, IMO I think this fight will be pretty close but one or the other will get the best of the other ITD.

I'm on Nate

I think the over is a safe play here as well.

[JoshKnows46]

Sucks, don’t it – the moment you realize you don’t know shit? I know it's hard for you all to wrap your peasized heads around this outcome after seeing the first fight, I know you can't visualize this next fight happening like it will,who could blame you. I know you've all been waiting to sell your homes to bet on diaz, I know this is a mighty big nasty pill to swallow but if you Invest in diaz, swallow it you most certainly will....You can breathe, you can blink, you can cry. Hell you’re all going to be doing that.

[PaperTrail07]

Same guy that was almost 5:1 favorite is -130 VS the same guy......has this EVER happened before?

[JoshKnows46]

Same guy that was almost 5:1 favorite is -130 VS the same guy......has this EVER happened before?

Werdum vs cain is the closest one I can think of, off the top of my head

[Hugo de Naranja]

Same guy that was almost 5:1 favorite is -130 VS the same guy......has this EVER happened before?

Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn. Edgar was +600 in the first fight and was +250 in the immediate rematch.

[JoshKnows46]

Barao dillashaw, and rousey and the preachers daughter when that happens.

[PaperTrail07]

For sure....Good Examples I couldnt think of anything even close----

[Ty$]

So what will the excuse be when Conor loses again???

[Ty$]

Conor has great striking but when the fight gets tough he checks the fuk out. He has ZERO HEART compared to Nate. You can't teach that shit !!!

[PaperTrail07]

I will have to agree -to a point....def does not get stronger as the fight goes like some fighters...

Conor has great striking but when the fight gets tough he checks the fuk out. He has ZERO HEART compared to Nate. You can't teach that shit !!!

[Ty$]

I will have to agree -to a point....def does not get stronger as the fight goes like some fighters...

Also where I come from if you "inefficiently used your energy" ITS CALLED GASSING ... Has to put a spin on all words .. He gases and has no heart. The 2 most important things to a fighter.

[bjpenn85]

Conor has great striking but when the fight gets tough he checks the fuk out. He has ZERO HEART compared to Nate. You can't teach that shit !!!

To fight with a nate diaz pace in a fight isnt done during a training camp. Its not about 02max, its about being fight efficient. And that can take years. You can reach a high 02max fast, but that doesnt necessarily mean you can run like a marathan runner with the same 02 max as yourself.

Nate diaz will probably nate diaz mcregor in the later rounds by doing what he always does, and its hard to picture mcregor with such a quick turnaround be able to go two more rounds full throttle with diaz. In a 5 round fight diaz has the advantage. And when diaz first get going, he usually dont stop if you dont have the wrestling to stop him. Mcregor doesnt have the cardio to wrestlefakk diaz for as many rounds he needs to win. This is actually a very hard matchup for mcregor, if he wins, i just dont know what to say about his persona. What he has done so far is amazing, but if he comes back and finish nate diaz, i might personally go backstage and blow him off.

[CaptChaos145]

Sucks, don’t it – the moment you realize you don’t know shit? I know it's hard for you all to wrap your peasized heads around this outcome after seeing the first fight, I know you can't visualize this next fight happening like it will,who could blame you. I know you've all been waiting to sell your homes to bet on diaz, I know this is a mighty big nasty pill to swallow but if you Invest in diaz, swallow it you most certainly will....You can breathe, you can blink, you can cry. Hell you’re all going to be doing that.

Josh Nate has more ways to win:

Nate can win by: TKO with strikes in volume (which would have happened if he didn't "shoot" in their 1st fight,) submission, break Conor.

Conor can win by: Clipping Nate with a kick or punch and following up. Both are not likely.

Diaz can take it. He's been hit a lot more by bigger guys.

It's almost important to see that Conor does well when it's 1 way traffic. He hasn't faced adversity well and he does break & quit. He just did it. Nate never breaks or quits.

Keep in mind... I like Conor. I enjoy watching him fight and I enjoy listening to him. I just don't see how he wins. Personally I think this fight is delaying the inevitable. he doesn't wanna fight Frankie. If he loses to Nate again it will be at 170 (2 weight classes above 145.) Now Aldo is fighting Frankie and if Aldo beats Frankie then Conor won't have to fight him again in quite some time. heck he may never fight Frankie if Frankie loses to Aldo.

Imo this is a calculated move by Conor and the people betting on Conor are taking the bate. Conor is a sucker bet!

IF Conor wins if will be because he caught Nate. He will not submit him and he will not beat him down. That is highly unlikely.

[CaptChaos145]

Same guy that was almost 5:1 favorite is -130 VS the same guy......has this EVER happened before?

Rousey was between 12-1 & 8-1 over Holm and that line would have been close if they rematched.

We were all believing in Conor's skills. I didn't wanna touch Nate to win this fight the 1st time around. How could you? Conor was on a roll, finishing guys, talking like Mohamed Ali and backing it up, showing a bit of invinsibility, and Nate had no camp. Now we know he can be beat and Nate has the tools to do it.

Yeah Conor is saying he will conserve his energy but Nate will still be coming right after him. If Conor eases up on his punches Nate will be able to take them even better.

[CaptChaos145]

Sucks, don’t it – the moment you realize you don’t know shit? I know it's hard for you all to wrap your peasized heads around this outcome after seeing the first fight, I know you can't visualize this next fight happening like it will,who could blame you. I know you've all been waiting to sell your homes to bet on diaz, I know this is a mighty big nasty pill to swallow but if you Invest in diaz, swallow it you most certainly will....You can breathe, you can blink, you can cry. Hell you’re all going to be doing that.

Josh Nate has more ways to win:

Nate can win by: TKO with strikes in volume (which would have happened if he didn't "shoot" in their 1st fight,) submission, break Conor.

Conor can win by: Clipping Nate with a kick or punch and following up. Both are not likely.

Diaz can take it. He's been hit a lot more by bigger guys.

It's important to see that Conor does well when it's 1 way traffic. He hasn't faced adversity well and he does break & quit. He just did it. Nate never breaks or quits.

Keep in mind... I like Conor. I enjoy watching him fight and I enjoy listening to him. I just don't see how he wins. Personally I think this fight is delaying the inevitable. he doesn't wanna fight Frankie. If he loses to Nate again it will be at 170 (2 weight classes above 145.) Now Aldo is fighting Frankie and if Aldo beats Frankie then Conor won't have to fight him again in quite some time. heck he may never fight Frankie if Frankie loses to Aldo.

Imo this is a calculated move by Conor and the people betting on Conor are taking the bate. Conor is a sucker bet!

IF Conor wins if will be because he caught Nate. He will not submit him and he will not beat him down. That is highly unlikely.

[Deceptakhan]

The Diaz bros have literaly morphed there bodies from competing in so many triathlons since they were teens. There lung capacity and heart stregth( actual heart) are on another level. I don't know if you would be able to get on their level even with an entire year devoted to improving your cardio, it's almost unfair....

[Unwritten Law]

Diaz definitely has more ways to win, by sub or KO. McGregor's only chance is to win by KO. McGregor would be a fool to try to take Nate down. He will put himself in a triangle so I doubt he'll attempt it. Only way he goes in Nate's guard is if he rocks him but that's still risky against an ace like Nate. Gonna be a fun fight to watch and my money will be on Nate. He'll KO Conor this time.

[JoshKnows46]

Josh Nate has more ways to win:

Nate can win by: TKO with strikes in volume (which would have happened if he didn't "shoot" in their 1st fight,) submission, break Conor.

Conor can win by: Clipping Nate with a kick or punch and following up. Both are not likely.

Diaz can take it. He's been hit a lot more by bigger guys.

It's important to see that Conor does well when it's 1 way traffic. He hasn't faced adversity well and he does break & quit. He just did it. Nate never breaks or quits.

Keep in mind... I like Conor. I enjoy watching him fight and I enjoy listening to him. I just don't see how he wins. Personally I think this fight is delaying the inevitable. he doesn't wanna fight Frankie. If he loses to Nate again it will be at 170 (2 weight classes above 145.) Now Aldo is fighting Frankie and if Aldo beats Frankie then Conor won't have to fight him again in quite some time. heck he may never fight Frankie if Frankie loses to Aldo.

Imo this is a calculated move by Conor and the people betting on Conor are taking the bate. Conor is a sucker bet!

IF Conor wins if will be because he caught Nate. He will not submit him and he will not beat him down. That is highly unlikely.

its highly unlikely Mcgregor ever fights at featherweight again, he's a multi millionaire, and that weight cut isn't healthy for him...diaz/mcgregor likely have a 3rd fight, money grab for everyone involved, diaz has a huge fan base himself, 3rd fight before either aldo or edgar get a crack at him, and when they do, it will probable be at 155, not 145. the masses want to see him fight diaz/lawlar/gsp/rda, he ran threw the featherweight division, and knocked out the best in the division in 13 seconds, theres nothing more for him left at 145, his stock cant get any higher, can only go down by fighting at that weight again, he is about the money, the diaz brothers are about the money, best thing that could have happen for all partys was mcgrgeor losing the first match-up.....Mcgregor has the better kick boxing, and wrestling, he desides where the fight takes place, he was hurt to the body and shot a sloppy takedown in the 2nd, he fought like a idiot, that wont happen twice, more leg kicks, more kicks and punches to the body, more counters, more takedowns, less head hunting,more combinations and volume, not underestimating diaz like the first time, where it was laughably to me and anyone with a clue when he predicted a 1st round finish, both guys are gonna be more confident, mcgrgeor will be more motivated, diaz will be less motivated, its pays for him to lose this fight, it pays very well for him to lose this fight...watch how mcgrgeor fought in every other fight, then watch how he fought in that fight, was a completely diffrent fighter in there, was a fighter that believed his hype, that believed he could ko a diaz in the first, a guy that never fought at 170, a guy that thought he had more energy becuase he didnt have the drastic weight cut...you think diaz's ground game is LEVELS better, its better, but mcgrgeor can control him from top position, as other have, he showed this at the end of the 1st round, your basing your opinion off mcgregor giving up his neck, so he could make more money at ufc 200, and not have a extended layoff by taking more punisment, yes that shows lack of heart, but he was already a beatin man when his prediction didnt come to reality, he was rocked from a punch becuase he was rushing a finish becuase he felt he was gassed and needed to finish, he even said coming out of the 1st to diaz, i can do this all day, he was bluffing, he knew he was done, i knew he was done, i laughed when he said that....your basing that on how mcgrgeor looked in his first fight at a new weight class, a new experience, something he never did before, your basing that off a gassed mcgrgeor, but did you see the first round, it was a poorly fought first round for mcgrgeor and he still took the round, i believe he will make the necessary adjustments, pick diaz apart and not look for the knockout by the end of the 1st, i believe this line should look closer to what it was the first fight,instead of close to even money, based on both guys skill sets, i believe i'm getting value, as you believe you're getting value. I can't make you see it the way i see it, i'm telling you he fought like he never fought before, nothing like himself, if you could see that, then you wouldn't be so confident in diaz, he didnt fight to his potential, neither did diaz, but his shots landed better, he was the better man that night, take nothing away from him, but there was many new aspects that mcgrgeor never fought against, was a bad spot, but mcgerger wins this fight 8 out of 10 fights under IDEAL circumstances, guys have off nights under less then ideal circumstances, on short notice, he was prepared for a completly different fighter, rda is nothing similar to diaz. i'm just rambling thoughts together, i don't know what else to tell you, i cant make you see fights the way i do, i can't make you watch as much film as I watch, i can't make you think like i think, or KNOW what I know, there's only one me.

[JoshKnows46]

BTW the diaz's brothers and mcgregor are 3 on my top 10 favorite fighters, i like real fighters, i like that real shit, i have no favoritism to either guy, both have made me a ton of money, and i enjoy watching both guys over almost anyone else currently in the ufc, they could fight 5 times over, and id be alright with that.

[bjpenn85]

BTW the diaz's brothers and mcgregor are 3 on my top 10 favorite fighters, i like real fighters, i like that real shit, i have no favoritism to either guy, both have made me a ton of money, and i enjoy watching both guys over almost anyone else currently in the ufc, they could fight 5 times over, and id be alright with that.

I agree with one thing, youre not biased. You come into a matchup and are totally sold on alvarez winning a 3 round decision against pettis, and then weeks after jumping on pettis over barboza like a little slut. Or with diaz over johnson, but then now all over mcregor against diaz. So youre clearly not biased. Thats a fact.

But, i dont understand your arguments in favour of mcregor other than that diaz should loose this fight of financial reasons. Diaz is made for cardio, mcregor is not, isnt that enough facts to break down this fight? Mcregor isnt finishing diaz, especially not after seeing that he first time around failed to do so. So either guy is not getting Koed early, and who does that favour? Not mcregor. To win over diaz you need to out volume the guy on the feet, or......wrestle to avoid beating him up on the feet, cause out voluming diaz is impossible.Nobody in the ufc has outvolumed diaz, of those who beat diaz like RDA, Henderson, Rory Macdonald, DYK they all pressed cheat code and wrestled him. Everybody knows you dont stand and trade with diaz. But completely disregarding that fact, la la la here comes me , im irish and proud i can KO you out on the feet - WRONG dude...fakking wrong.

If mcregor cant last two rounds, youre selling me that he can win a 5 rounder, tough sell...

[Pinocchio]

I don't think McGregor is going to win necessarily, but the only bet that makes sense based on return on the dollar is McGregor by decision.