UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs. Dos Santos (April 10, 2016)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 2 p.m. ET
Ben Rothwell vs. Junior Dos Santos
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis
Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou
Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
Jan Blachowicz vs. Igor Pokrajac
Maryna Moroz vs. Cristina Stanciu

FOX Sports 1, noon ET
Zak Cummings vs. Nicolas Dalby
Damir Hadzovic vs. Mairbek Taisumov
Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez
Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak

UFC Fight Pass, 10:30 a.m. ET
Lucas Martins vs. Robert Whiteford
Cyril Asker vs. Jared Cannonier
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Bojan Velickovic

[JoshKnows46]

Works done, ready to see these lines, and murder some openers...

[Killer_Demo]

A ton of HW fights and HW prospects on this card. Big boy card

[Deceptakhan]

lines come out monday morning you think?

[JoshKnows46]

lines come out monday morning you think?

Some lines already out today at euro books, could be soon. There's ways of knowing when lines will drop within the hour they are dropped, but openers are easily moved, so I don't want too much competition on opener lines, to say on a website like this, would cut too much into my yearly profit.

[JIBBBY]

Big Ben Rothwell line staying steady, moving up a tiny bit... I got it at -110 on 5d when the line first came out.. Currently at -115 now...

<small>UFC Fight Night 86 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sun 4/10		1001 Ben Rothwell		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> -115	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o1½ -145
4:00PM		1002 Junior dos Santos		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -105	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u1½ +125

[JIBBBY]

This is the next event up and still there are no lines out.. Other events have more lines out. Strange happenings!!!!

This is a decent event too.. I guess no one is a big hurry with still 2 weeks to wait..

[JoshKnows46]

This is the next event up and still there are no lines out.. Other events have more lines out. Strange happenings!!!!

This is a decent event too.. I guess no one is a big hurry with still 2 weeks to wait..

They probable didn't know half these guys well enough to put out accurate lines and needed extra time to put a number next to the names.

[JIBBBY]

They probable didn't know half these guys well enough to put out accurate lines and needed extra time to put a number next to the names.

IDK? I think everyone knows who Gabriel Gonzaga and Derrick Lewis are.. I'm really curious as to what that line might be? Nothing out on any of my books yet.....

Other fighters not well known though good point..

[JoshKnows46]

IDK? I think everyone knows who Gabriel Gonzaga and Derrick Lewis are.. I'm really curious as to what that line might be? Nothing out on any of my books yet.....

Other fighters not well known though good point..

lewis is favored by -150 at euro books.

[GoBlue77]

well if junior gets worked over again he should just retire. seeing his face beat to hell is becoming the norm.

[JIBBBY]

lewis is favored by -150 at euro books.

Yep that sounds about right.. Thanks..

[JoshKnows46]

Yep that sounds about right.. Thanks..

i lean to black beast, but the number is spot on at -150, becuase gonzaga is washed up, but black beast has horrible take down defense, and gonzaga is good at setting up his takedowns....its probable gonna be ko black beast 1st or 2nd round or gonzaga sub 1st round, or i'll do black beast straight, with gonzaga sub hedge or gonzaga 1st round finish hedge.... i may end up just betting both first round finishes.....this is a tough card to bet straight wagers, gonna have to get creative outside of a few matchups, they have a bunch of fighters that can flake out, and they have some fighters that could lose early but have the better cardio, and could win in the 3rd. with the ferguson card coming up, which is stacked with great options for betting top to bottom, i'd advise others to take it easy with this card...i have 3 straights i like, and the rest of the card, i'll get creative with props and such, as i can see angles for both sides, and clear paths for both sides, plus its a mostly big man card, so you can have some surprise Ko's thrown in.

[JoshKnows46]

great card for live betting, have some guys that will finish in the 3rd and by dec, if they don't get stopped early..and some guys I want to see how they do with the wrestling in the 1st round, and unknown guys, so books will surely post some terrible live bet numbers to take advantage of, so do yall homework before hand.

[JIBBBY]

^^Derrick Lewis by KO, Derrick Lewis 1st round when the props come out... Gonzaga is a total can these days... He looked like pure garbage in his last fight against that big Russian stiff Eirokhin...



Only shot Gonzaga has is to put Derrick Lewis on his back as then it could be his fight to win.. Gonzaga is very top heavy coming in at max weight (260) and he is a Brazilian black belt.. Still Gonzaga is painfully slow, has weak takedowns, his wrestling sucks, and he gasses out fast.. The Black Beast isn't a cardio machine either but I think he has a better gas tank then Gonzaga and will keep the fight standing long enough to get the Ko..

[JoshKnows46]

^^Derrick Lewis by KO, Derrick Lewis 1st round when the props come out... Gonzaga is a total can these days... He looked like pure garbage in his last fight against that big Russian stiff Eirokhin...



Only shot Gonzaga has is to put Derrick Lewis on his back as then it could be his fight to win.. Gonzaga is very top heavy coming in at max weight (260) and he is a Brazilian black belt.. Still Gonzaga is painfully slow, has weak takedowns, his wrestling sucks, and he gasses out fast.. The Black Beast isn't a cardio machine either but I think he has a better gas tank then Gonzaga and will keep the fight standing long enough to get the Ko..

yea i know, i saw that gonzaga fight, and it was painful to have to rewatch it last week, gonzaga can still sub lewis, and his wrestling doesn't suck, he can take lewis down easily if he chooses to. he is a washed up can, but this is a winnable match-up for gonzaga. ****styles make fights***this fight is a MUST hedge fight, regardless of what side your on.

[JIBBBY]

yea i know, i saw that gonzaga fight, and it was painful to have to rewatch it last week, gonzaga can still sub lewis, and his wrestling doesn't suck, he can take lewis down easily if he chooses to. he is a washed up can, but this is a winnable match-up for gonzaga. ****styles make fights***this fight is a MUST hedge fight, regardless of what side your on.

I was thinking hedge with the Gonzaga sub as well that's why I mentioned Gonzaga's ground game credentials.. If he gets the fight to the ground it's his best chance to win for sure.. Derrick Lewis doesn't have the best take down defense either but like I said when Lewis is fresh I think he keeps the fight standing or gets back up to his feet if taken down.. Gonzaga looked like he was in slow motion and fighting scared against that Russian.. He gassed fast as well..

I think DL taps that chin early on.... I think he sends Gonzaga packing and right out of the UFC with the KO win.....

I don't think Gonzaga can do this to Derrick Lewis anyways..

[JoshKnows46]

I was thinking hedge with the Gonzaga sub as well that's why I mentioned Gonzaga's ground game credentials.. If he gets the fight to the ground it's his best chance to win for sure.. Derrick Lewis doesn't have the best take down defense either but like I said when Lewis is fresh I think he keeps the fight standing or gets back up to his feet if taken down.. Gonzaga looked like he was in slow motion and fighting scared against that Russian.. He gassed fast as well..

I think DL taps that chin early on.... I think he sends Gonzaga packing and right out of the UFC with the KO win.....

I agree with all this, i'll have a little more invested in lewis, but gonzaga has around a 40% chance as the odds implied probability suggests, no real value in the line, its spot on with lewis winning 60% at -150, i was hoping for even odds, but no such luck.

[JIBBBY]

I agree with all this, i'll have a little more invested in lewis, but gonzaga has around a 40% chance as the odds implied probability suggests, no real value in the line, its spot on with lewis winning 60% at -150, i was hoping for even odds, but no such luck.

That's why you turn to the props for better value if you feel there is no value in the straights.. Take Lewis by KO or ITD as those are his most likely pathways to victory outside of a decision win which is highly unlikely.. Odds should probably be close to even for the KO prop when it comes out..

[JoshKnows46]

That's why you turn to the props for better value if you feel there is no value in the straights.. Take Lewis by KO or ITD as those are his most likely pathways to victory outside of a decision win which is highly unlikely.. Odds should probably be close to even for the KO prop when it comes out..

ko and itd wont be much different than the straight wager price on lewis, as the sportsbooks know that is the most likley only outcome to his victory as well, that's why i mentioned i'll likely be on the 1st round finish for both guys.....it'll only be like a 20 point diffrence itd, around -130, and probable -125 for the ko. If it somehow makes the second, I'll live bet black beast depending how he handles the wrestling and how gonzagas moving.

[Mxs1332]

I was thinking hedge with the Gonzaga sub as well that's why I mentioned Gonzaga's ground game credentials.. If he gets the fight to the ground it's his best chance to win for sure.. Derrick Lewis doesn't have the best take down defense either but like I said when Lewis is fresh I think he keeps the fight standing or gets back up to his feet if taken down.. Gonzaga looked like he was in slow motion and fighting scared against that Russian.. He gassed fast as well..

I think DL taps that chin early on.... I think he sends Gonzaga packing and right out of the UFC with the KO win.....

I don't think Gonzaga can do this to Derrick Lewis anyways..

Hmm got me thinking that Mitrone maybe in line to become Champ of Bellator. Interesting...

[JIBBBY]

^^ Depends on which Mitroine shows up?.. Sometimes he fights aggressive and kicks ass and other times he fights cautious and gets his ass beat.. http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/3/14...h-bellator-mma

Meat head should beat big ole fat Tony Johnson the current Bellator HW champ but ya never know? Big boy is Tony Johnson.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Johnson-41069

[Ty$]

Jus a note I train with Timothy Johnson and he's been looking solid.. wrestler base w improved boxing ... Should do very well against a mostly jiu jitsu guy. Im saying Tim by TKO

[Killer_Demo]

^^ Depends on which Mitroine shows up?.. Sometimes he fights aggressive and kicks ass and other times he fights cautious and gets his ass beat.. http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/3/14...h-bellator-mma

Meat head should beat big ole fat Tony Johnson the current Bellator HW champ but ya never know? Big boy is Tony Johnson.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Johnson-41069

Thats what jibb looks like after he flaps his gums

[mirinquads]

Jus a note I train with Timothy Johnson and he's been looking solid.. wrestler base w improved boxing ... Should do very well against a mostly jiu jitsu guy. Im saying Tim by TKO

Which camp?

[Shagdogy]

Jus a note I train with Timothy Johnson and he's been looking solid.. wrestler base w improved boxing ... Should do very well against a mostly jiu jitsu guy. Im saying Tim by TKO

Anxious to see this line come out cause I personally think TJ wins comfortably. He has better power, he's more active, and has better cardio. Only chance Tybur has in my opinion is to sub TJ from bottom, or work some slick BJJ out of bottom position and either sweep or get to his back. TJ hasn't been subbed since 2011 though and I think he'll have the better gas tank, making it real hard for Tybur to threaten much off his back. TJ will beat him up on the feet or from top position. I also like the over if it's set at 1.5.

One question, if you really train with TJ... How's his takedown defense in the clinch? Tybura has decent trips and takedowns from body lock and generally rides guys like a backpack until he drags them down. If he can be successful at that, and get on top, he has a chance. I just don't see it. I think there will be value on TJ when this line comes out.

[Ty$]

Yes I really train with him have since his first fight. I was there when got tapped by kimura and was dominating til then. He's a former D2 wrestler so I think his wrestling should be better also his jiu jitsu is super improved. I agree if he gets beat could be by sub. But all he's been working is sprawl n brawl more less and sub D. We train in Fargo ND at The Academy of Combat Arts. I also fought and trained w Pablo Garza for years before he moved. I'm fairly new to betting but have had some hella good luck.

[mirinquads]

Yes I really train with him have since his first fight. I was there when got tapped by kimura and was dominating til then. He's a former D2 wrestler so I think his wrestling should be better also his jiu jitsu is super improved. I agree if he gets beat could be by sub. But all he's been working is sprawl n brawl more less and sub D. We train in Fargo ND at The Academy of Combat Arts. I also fought and trained w Pablo Garza for years before he moved. I'm fairly new to betting but have had some hella good luck.

Sounds good man, anyone else notable trains there? Timothy is a giant, seems to be quite huge and hard to handle.

[Shagdogy]

If he keeps it standing he will have a sizable power advantage and will beat up Tybura... His strikes are just pitter patter.

Sprawl n brawl is good. I thought even against Rosholt his TDD against shots from the outside was plenty good. Even his clinch work was strong, it just seemed to be a bit of sloppiness or over aggressiveness that would get him reversed and put in bad positions. If he cleans it up a littl for this fight I think he walks through Tybura. Only has to avoid one weapon.

[Ty$]

If he keeps it standing he will have a sizable power advantage and will beat up Tybura... His strikes are just pitter patter.

Sprawl n brawl is good. I thought even against Rosholt his TDD against shots from the outside was plenty good. Even his clinch work was strong, it just seemed to be a bit of sloppiness or over aggressiveness that would get him reversed and put in bad positions. If he cleans it up a littl for this fight I think he walks through Tybura. Only has to avoid one weapon.

I agree ... He's been working on cardio a lot too ... I'm sure I'm biased but he should get the W.. Right now he's our only guy in the UFC... One other guy that's close signed to legacy

[SlightLean]

Has anyone looked at the Dalby - Cummings fight at all?
Feel like there could be some value with Cummings +140-150 since hes a tough out and could grind out a dec or sub and has a good chin. Haven't seen enough of Dalby's fights though.

[AliMMA]

Has anyone looked at the Dalby - Cummings fight at all?
Feel like there could be some value with Cummings +140-150 since hes a tough out and could grind out a dec or sub and has a good chin. Haven't seen enough of Dalby's fights though.

I have spoke with Dalby a couple of times, he trains tough year round, and had a good fight in Dublin a while back, still young as well, will take on more and improve more between fights! Dalby by dec or TKO!!

[Shagdogy]

Has anyone looked at the Dalby - Cummings fight at all?
Feel like there could be some value with Cummings +140-150 since hes a tough out and could grind out a dec or sub and has a good chin. Haven't seen enough of Dalby's fights though.

I like Dalby to win this fight. He has the much better striking from range. Better kicks. Smart about scoring with takedowns late in rounds. But the biggest advantage he will have is his pace and cardio. Cummings will be a tough test. If he plays the bully and uses his size advantage to push forward he will probably have some success, but Dalby's chin has shown to be durable and he can make the clinch work difficult for Cummings. The deeper this fight goes, Dalby's cardio will be too much for Cummings and he will land more from range and probably find success with a few takedowns late in the fight to seal it. Dalby by dec. is what I'm thinking. I only see -190 for Dalby currently though, and for me at those odds its a no play right now.

[CaptChaos145]

Yes I really train with him have since his first fight. I was there when got tapped by kimura and was dominating til then. He's a former D2 wrestler so I think his wrestling should be better also his jiu jitsu is super improved. I agree if he gets beat could be by sub. But all he's been working is sprawl n brawl more less and sub D. We train in Fargo ND at The Academy of Combat Arts. I also fought and trained w Pablo Garza for years before he moved. I'm fairly new to betting but have had some hella good luck.

TJ showed a lot of heart in the Rosholt fight. If that fight went 5 rounds I think he would have won.

[JIBBBY]

So this is the next UFC event.. Let the capping begin!!!