JoshKnows Ufc 196: Mcgregor vs Diaz

[THE_RUDESTER]

Sup... I see you're still smashing. Good Luck this weekend.

[JoshKnows46]

Mcgregor/diaz over 85.5 significant strikes +170 risking $100
Mcgregor/diaz will touch gloves +430 risking $70
Mcgregor finishes in 3rd round +600 risking $250 more ($350 total)
Mcgregor finishes in 4th round +1000 risking $100

[JoshKnows46]

Ufc embedded part 3

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4KhFQdBK0Q4

[shabang]

my main bets are : mcgregor, holm, thatch, miranda,


mcgregor starts round 2, holm starts round 2, miller starts round 2, skelly starts round 2

will lay more down come fight time when we're in the thread talking about everything and via live betting.


anybody have the clip of diaz getting ko'd by thompson?

[bjpenn85]

Dont feel Latifi will land the early KO--Villante is better than that.....after that..i expect them to tie up and watch the pace SLOW way way down...After the first 2:30 it should be a cruise..

I have thought a little bit on what you said here, but i have come to the conclusion that even though this fight surpass round 1, i just done see how villante wins. Bad defence, pretty slow, bad cardio, can possible be taken down. Its just to much going against him here. All of those things i listed can be fight ending and factors that may lead villante to loose. "After 2.30, it should be a cruise", sounds fair at first glance, but i do think youre way off here. And how likely is it that 2.30 even shows up?. Latifi can just breath and people go to sleep. Latifi possibly pack the most powerful punch we have seen to date in the ufc.. Im not tell you that latifi is any world beater, but his power is something special. No follow up punches, just clock....faceplant, done.

[All_Or_Nothing]

my main bets are : mcgregor, holm, thatch, miranda,


mcgregor starts round 2, holm starts round 2, miller starts round 2, skelly starts round 2

will lay more down come fight time when we're in the thread talking about everything and via live betting.


anybody have the clip of diaz getting ko'd by thompson?

I would be careful about that Thatch wager. Good luck though.

[PaperTrail07]

What good wins does Latifi have? Oh Yeah....almost NONE....

I have thought a little bit on what you said here, but i have come to the conclusion that even though this fight surpass round 1, i just done see how villante wins. Bad defence, pretty slow, bad cardio, can possible be taken down. Its just to much going against him here. All of those things i listed can be fight ending and factors that may lead villante to loose. "After 2.30, it should be a cruise", sounds fair at first glance, but i do think youre way off here. And how likely is it that 2.30 even shows up?. Latifi can just breath and people go to sleep. Latifi possibly pack the most powerful punch we have seen to date in the ufc.. Im not tell you that latifi is any world beater, but his power is something special. No follow up punches, just clock....faceplant, done.

[PaperTrail07]

I agree he is strong.....that cant be looked past...guy is an ANIMAL.....but come on....GV is not going to get caught w that BS....Latifi has OK hands at best skill wise and is really not fast at all IMO......

I have thought a little bit on what you said here, but i have come to the conclusion that even though this fight surpass round 1, i just done see how villante wins. Bad defence, pretty slow, bad cardio, can possible be taken down. Its just to much going against him here. All of those things i listed can be fight ending and factors that may lead villante to loose. "After 2.30, it should be a cruise", sounds fair at first glance, but i do think youre way off here. And how likely is it that 2.30 even shows up?. Latifi can just breath and people go to sleep. Latifi possibly pack the most powerful punch we have seen to date in the ufc.. Im not tell you that latifi is any world beater, but his power is something special. No follow up punches, just clock....faceplant, done.

[PaperTrail07]

GV slows down the pace ---he COULD pick Latifi apart...

[PaperTrail07]

Again...I think Latifi is the fav ---but think GV has a shot unlike MOST who feel Latifi should be -400 ish...

[bjpenn85]

What good wins does Latifi have? Oh Yeah....almost NONE....

I agree, but what you forgot after entering enter on your little keyboard, for some reason, is that GV hasnt either fought and won against anyone. Comparatively GV is worse as they have one common opponent where GV won slightly, and latifi won by one punch KO. No follow up, just clock, face down, and done.

Point numero dos, Yes he is kind of fast, watch that dempsey fight, do you see the overhand right? I seriously needed three times to watch that punch. He got explosive takedowns as well. So he is quick, while GV is very slow, so the speed advantage is significant. But, im not sold on Latifi after round 1, cause he almost always finishes fight, so its a bit like nunes. Very good in the beginning, but hard to examine round 2 and round 3 due to lack of data. But....to go from the point to say, since Latifi may slow down, and perform worse, to say that villante will cruise its a tough sell in my book. -400 no... but def value at -180 up to maybe -220 IMO.

If Villante wins, he most likely wins by KO, maybe in the first or second round. But im not sure he can do enough to win a decision. Latifi got pretty good kicks as well, and they come really fast, and he can probably mix striking, legkicks and explosive takedowns to win two rounds, pretty clearly. So you cant like Villantes chances here. But, all fiights were you havent seen a guy go the full three rounds with good opposition is a liability, no doubt. So I understand where the skepticism come from.

[PaperTrail07]

Anderson is a quility win IMO.....I'd respect that KO more but Demp has ben KO'd in his last 3/4 fights...and you kinda nailed what I'm saying....after round 1 Latifi slows down and GV COULD take over...not saying he will but Im just looking for him to make it past 2:30 of the second round....not put on the performance of a lifetime...I could see 29-28 GV after Latifi completely gasses in round 1....could it go the other way...100%...

I agree, but what you forgot after entering enter on your little keyboard, for some reason, is that GV hasnt either fought and won against anyone. Comparatively GV is worse as they have one common opponent where GV won slightly, and latifi won by one punch KO. No follow up, just clock, face down, and done.

Point numero dos, Yes he is kind of fast, watch that dempsey fight, do you see the overhand right? I seriously needed three times to watch that punch. He got explosive takedowns as well. So he is quick, while GV is very slow, so the speed advantage is significant. But, im not sold on Latifi after round 1, cause he almost always finishes fight, so its a bit like nunes. Very good in the beginning, but hard to examine round 2 and round 3 due to lack of data. But....to go from the point to say, since Latifi may slow down, and perform worse, to say that villante will cruise its a tough sell in my book. -400 no... but def value at -180 up to maybe -220 IMO.

If Villante wins, he most likely wins by KO, maybe in the first or second round. But im not sure he can do enough to win a decision. Latifi got pretty good kicks as well, and they come really fast, and he can probably mix striking, legkicks and explosive takedowns to win two rounds, pretty clearly. So you cant like Villantes chances here. But, all fiights were you havent seen a guy go the full three rounds with good opposition is a liability, no doubt. So I understand where the skepticism come from.

[PaperTrail07]

Im making an argument for the over 1.5 not the GV win .....

I have thought a little bit on what you said here, but i have come to the conclusion that even though this fight surpass round 1, i just done see how villante wins. Bad defence, pretty slow, bad cardio, can possible be taken down. Its just to much going against him here. All of those things i listed can be fight ending and factors that may lead villante to loose. "After 2.30, it should be a cruise", sounds fair at first glance, but i do think youre way off here. And how likely is it that 2.30 even shows up?. Latifi can just breath and people go to sleep. Latifi possibly pack the most powerful punch we have seen to date in the ufc.. Im not tell you that latifi is any world beater, but his power is something special. No follow up punches, just clock....faceplant, done.

[bjpenn85]

Anderson is a quility win IMO.....I'd respect that KO more but Demp has ben KO'd in his last 3/4 fights...and you kinda nailed what I'm saying....after round 1 Latifi slows down and GV COULD take over...not saying he will but Im just looking for him to make it past 2:30 of the second round....not put on the performance of a lifetime...I could see 29-28 GV after Latifi completely gasses in round 1....could it go the other way...100%...

Again, youre cheating. Did he actually win that fight, except from the KO? Against tom lawler he won before he got Koed, so that would be a valid argument. But he got Koed so you didnt use that argument.

In the anderson fight he was minutes from losing a 30-27, again, somehow you forget shit and typing enter.

Stop, think, post.

Anything else we agree on, no doubt.

[bjpenn85]

Im making an argument for the over 1.5 not the GV win .....

Both sluggers, fight should see a 7 minutes and 30 sec? more than 50% the times. GV is probably pretty hesitant to strike with latifi though so may happen but...the odds isnt doing you favours. Of all the odds listed on this event, is this really something youre willing to put money down for? Im not sure i understand the willingness to take those risk. Then you should maybe not bet it at all. This card is actually decent for betting, you should invest otherwise IMO

[PaperTrail07]

End Results mean EVERYTHING to me so yeah, your right....a fight you were winning mean nothing if you lost IMO....but for sure....GL this weekend...

Again, youre cheating. Did he actually win that fight, except from the KO? Against tom lawler he won before he got Koed, so that would be a valid argument. But he got Koed so you didnt use that argument.

In the anderson fight he was minutes from losing a 30-27, again, somehow you forget shit and typing enter.

Stop, think, post.

Anything else we agree on, no doubt.

[PaperTrail07]

Thanks for the input....I understand nobody likes this bet liek I do....guess we will see .....again GL this card....my biggest bet is Silva/Taleb over 1.5 -145....I just think unless Latifi lands the Kill shot in 2:30 that it goes the distance...I know it CRAZY thinking...

Both sluggers, fight should see a 7 minutes and 30 sec? more than 50% the times. GV is probably pretty hesitant to strike with latifi though so may happen but...the odds isnt doing you favours. Of all the odds listed on this event, is this really something youre willing to put money down for? Im not sure i understand the willingness to take those risk. Then you should maybe not bet it at all. This card is actually decent for betting, you should invest otherwise IMO

[PaperTrail07]

Have to assume he will be for atleast the first round right? ---Every person that thinks this is a bad bet thinks latifi will win in uner 2:30...I dont

Both sluggers, fight should see a 7 minutes and 30 sec? more than 50% the times. GV is probably pretty hesitant to strike with latifi though so may happen but...the odds isnt doing you favours. Of all the odds listed on this event, is this really something youre willing to put money down for? Im not sure i understand the willingness to take those risk. Then you should maybe not bet it at all. This card is actually decent for betting, you should invest otherwise IMO

[bjpenn85]

Have to assume he will be for atleast the first round right? ---Every person that thinks this is a bad bet thinks latifi will win in uner 2:30...I dont

This is the main reason to bet on this fight the way you do. Psychology, adjustments.

[bjpenn85]

End Results mean EVERYTHING to me so yeah, your right....a fight you were winning mean nothing if you lost IMO....but for sure....GL this weekend...

Well, if someone loses and loses and loses, it doesnt matter that you in periods won. But when someone just smashes, or wins every round, and then with a couple of mintues left wins, you cant be go ohhhh knew that would happen, now im def betting on this guy again, right? If someone loses big, it should leave a stain. Jeremy stephans on the other hand...he fakkin wins in fight where he loses clearly on all judges scorecards but then lands a fight ending blow. But stephans you should never bet straight though.

[bjpenn85]

loses every round, just to clear that up.

[JoshKnows46]

Have to assume he will be for atleast the first round right? ---Every person that thinks this is a bad bet thinks latifi will win in uner 2:30...I dont

I'd like to mention that latifi can knock out Villante just as easy in the bottom half of the first, as he can in the first 2:30 lol

[All_Or_Nothing]

I'd like to mention that latifi can knock out Villante just as easy in the bottom half of the first, as he can in the first 2:30 lol

Josh. Are you a little concerned about Gian not moving forward? Latifi does better against fighters that move forward. Also Gian staying on the outside & using his superior reach to jab & leg kick Ilir.

[TPowell]

Josh. Are you a little concerned about Gian not moving forward? Latifi does better against fighters that move forward. Also Gian staying on the outside & using his superior reach to jab & leg kick Ilir.

That's possible but even if he does that, he'll have to stop the takedowns from Latifi as well.

[JoshKnows46]

Josh. Are you a little concerned about Gian not moving forward? Latifi does better against fighters that move forward. Also Gian staying on the outside & using his superior reach to jab & leg kick Ilir.

No because latifi decides were the fight takes place, if gian goes that route, it won't be long before he's on his back, eating punches.

[All_Or_Nothing]

I like taleb at plus money, he just needs to make it out the first round, maybe I'll hedge with silva by sub or the 1st round prop, or maybe I'll just wait to bet taleb live after the 1st. taleb by dec possibly. Silva's off the roids.

Silva was off the roids when he fought vs Magny. The fight was close & ended in a split decision. Magny is a beast with much skill. Silva can win a decision & most likely will. I like the over 1.5

[JoshKnows46]

Silva was off the roids when he fought vs Magny. The fight was close & ended in a split decision. Magny is a beast with much skill. Silva can win a decision & most likely will. I like the over 1.5

silvas still off the roids, by his shrunken body....you can get him at a good price by dec at +477 if you like it, me personally i'd rather have the guy with the better cardio, who decides where the fight takes place at +325, +280 currently. silva can win a dec, but its unlikely, if you believe its more likely, then you can make bank on it, good luck.

[plekz]

That's possible but even if he does that, he'll have to stop the takedowns from Latifi as well.

You need combinations and feints to set up those takedowns, unless you wanna get knocked the fk out. Laitifi doesn't lead, which is why in all his losses he's been picked apart due to his inability to collapse space on his own.

[JoshKnows46]

You need combinations and feints to set up those takedowns, unless you wanna get knocked the fk out. Laitifi doesn't lead, which is why in all his losses he's been picked apart due to his inability to collapse space on his own.

latifi has a solid chin, he can shoot in on this cat, and get him down without setting it up.

[plekz]

latifi has a solid chin, he can shoot in on this cat, and get him down without setting it up.

So why hasn't he in the past? If it's that easy, why does has all his losses come the same way?

[Sanity Check]

anybody have the clip of diaz getting ko'd by thompson?

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Nunes finishes in round 1 +350 $250 to win $875
Nunes finishes in round 2 +600 $50 to win $300
Nunes wins by sub +529 $50 to win $264.50

[JoshKnows46]

In this video, Mcgregor says he'd like to dominate him on the ground, and nate's ground game is overrated, sounds like he wants to jump on a sub after he hurts diaz in the stand-up, i'm gonna take a stab at this, because this isn't the first time i hear him talking about subbing nate in a short period since the fight was announced, he probable focused alot on his ground game in the lead up to fight with rda and wants to put it to use in some fashion.

Added:
Mcgregor by sub +2500 $50 to win $1250

[JoshKnows46]

[UncleChael]

McGregor is a little bitch just like Nate Diaz pointed out.