UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm (November 14, 2015)

[UncleChael]

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[JIBBBY]

Even though Big Foot is off the TRT now he did manage to win his last fight against Soa.. I had also thought that Big Foot was already off the TRT when he met Hunt in their first fight.. I guess I thought wrong..

Hunt has managed to go the distant or deep into the 2nd round in his last 6 fights. NO 1st ROUND FINISHES..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

I'm also thinking Big Foot can see Hunts punches coming like he did in the first fight.. He knows what to expect from Mark Hunt now in other words...

I'm gonna take a stab at the over in this fight.. Hunt at his age is slowing down and Big Foot is already slow.. It's probably gonna be a hugging contest for 3 rounds once both start to gas.. Sure a solid connect on either guys chin will send either to sleep early but I think it's worth the +160 on the over that neither lands.. If the fight gets out of the 1st round it's probably going the distance...

[Sanity Check]

Hunt has managed to go the distant or deep into the 2nd round in his last 6 fights. NO 1st ROUND FINISHES..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

Aye!

Count the number of 1st rd finishes here:

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Silva-12354

The number of times Bigfoot has been finished in the 1st round.

I think Bigfoot has finished @ round 1, in 5 out of his last 10 fights which works out to something like a 50/50 split.

[JIBBBY]

Aye!

Count the number of 1st rd finishes here:

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Silva-12354

The number of times Bigfoot has been finished in the 1st round.

I think Bigfoot has finished @ round 1, in 5 out of his last 10 fights which works out to something like a 50/50 split.

True Sanity, 50/50 in last 4 fights. Hey, but Hunt is certainly not easily finished in 1st rounds either. I still think there is good value in that +160 over.. I already placed the bet in for a benny... So let's see if that over sticks?

[JIBBBY]

Also threw the over bet in this 4 team parlay to win back over 10 times the return...

$50.00	$539.40	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/14/15 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Antonio Silva/Mark Hunt Over 1½ +160*
				Pending	11/14/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Uriah Hall -130* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
				Pending	11/14/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Jared Rosholt +105* <small>vs</small> Stefan Struve
				Pending	11/14/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Gian Villante -400* <small>vs</small> Anthony Perosh

[TPowell]

I loaded up against Big Foot last time out and I plan on doing so again. That was one of the worst HW fights I've ever watched and Silva has just been ravaged lately by age and health

[JIBBBY]

I'm thinking this Mexican Akbarh Arreola has a chance against Jake Mathews.. Odds are out of control on this fight.. 22 of his 23 wins have come ITD.. Jake might still be a little raw with only 9 pro fights also..

I do think Arreola's only chance of possibly beating Jake Mathews is ITD because I don't think he can win this fight by decision.. Jake is too good and shouldn't be out pointed in this one.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Akbarh-Arreola-6120

The win by sub prop is very tempting

1527 Arreola wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_155" size="4"> +1250

To cover all ends the ITD prop to me makes the most sense.. I thought this was worth a small shot anyways..

Pending11/14/15 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1505 Arreola wins inside distance +1050* <small>vs</small> Not Arreola inside distance

[JIBBBY]

I posted Part 1 in an earlier post.. This came out after so thought to post it up..

Part 2 event write up.. Decent read - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/10/9...-melbourne-mma

[JIBBBY]

Feeling generous today and feel like sharing.. I'm pretty confident most of these will hit..

These are all the best props for value in each prelim fight as I see it. These are the most likely outcomes for each fight IMO.. Yes, I derived at these props after heavily capping each fight and carefully considering each fighters main strength, recent trends and streaks... Tail at own risk as always.. I'm on each prop for 50 bucks a pop.. (8 props)


Pending11/14/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1605 Sobotta wins inside distance +217* <small>vs</small> Not Sobotta inside distance

Pending

11/14/15 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1721 Villante wins in round 1 +120* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Pending11/14/15 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1811 Vaculik wins by 3 round decision +170* <small>vs</small> Not Vaculik by 3 round decision

Pending11/14/15 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2129 Montgomery wins by TKO/KO -130* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Pending11/14/15 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2009 Walsh wins inside distance +170* <small>vs</small> Not Walsh inside distance

Pending11/14/15 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Moontasri wins inside distance +120* <small>vs</small> Not Moontasri inside distance

Pending11/14/15 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2233 Benoit wins by TKO/KO +350* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Pending11/14/15 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1505 Arreola wins inside distance +1050*

[BELM0NT]

ronda looked a little drained at weigh ins

[imadegen]

good value on bigfoot it'll be a slugfest

[JIBBBY]

It's on!!

[TPowell]

what about Struve? I really dislike the goofy rooster_eater but this should be a layup against Rosholt. He's fought bums his entire career. He was finished by Alexey in round one. Alexey's similar to Struve in a few aspects. Both have great submission games and both have a sizable length advantage over Rosholt. I just can't see Rosholt winning this fight unless he keeps Struve grounded for the vast majority of 3 rounds.

[TPowell]

I can't argue your logic..

My deal is - I bet larger on the straight wins.. I then bet very small with the props with value.. I don't often load up on prop bets unless it's a lock..

For example - I'll probably bet $200 on Rosholt to win straight up at +118, and then bet another $50 on the prop "win by decision" at the +175..

So now if Rosholt wins the fight and not by decision and I lose the prop I still walk away with a nice win because of the larger straight win bet..

Struve has a decent guard and you just know Rosholt is gonna work for take downs and get them all fight long.. He should man handle Struve in this fight.. Most likely Rosholt wins the fight and by decision unless Struve lands a bomb on the chin late or locks up a lucky submission which is not likely to happen..

Outside chance Rosholt could finish Struve with the ground and pound also but that's not likely to happen because of Struve's long guard...

I can't pick out what is most wrong with this post.

[Thor4140]

have this funny feeling the first time Holly is in any kind of trouble we see a quick stoppage where Rhonda gets a gift.

[Wrigley]

Holm is overated look at holm last fight, this will be over in under a minute once rousey gets her on the ground, Holm was fighting a old lady her last fight and it went the distance.

[JIBBBY]

I can't pick out what is most wrong with this post.

Well TPow if ya can't pick out what is wrong with the post then perhaps you shouldn't post about it at all then..

[JIBBBY]

have this funny feeling the first time Holly is in any kind of trouble we see a quick stoppage where Rhonda gets a gift.

I gotta disagree Thorster,

Holly has had a ton of big fight experience outside of MMA so I don't think she gets rattled when rocked or hurt.. She's a tough girl and comes back fighting harder and more determined from what I've seen....

I'm actually not convinced she'll tap in an armbar either in a championship fight... Rhonda might snap it...

[JIBBBY]

what about Struve? I really dislike the goofy rooster_eater but this should be a layup against Rosholt. He's fought bums his entire career. He was finished by Alexey in round one. Alexey's similar to Struve in a few aspects. Both have great submission games and both have a sizable length advantage over Rosholt. I just can't see Rosholt winning this fight unless he keeps Struve grounded for the vast majority of 3 rounds.

We've seen Rosholt get KO'd before against Alex Olienik 3 fights ago when he began to gas out.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jared-Rosholt-76763

Struve's reach and punching accuracy is a concern for sure but you gotta think the Rosholt wrestling will be the difference in this fight..

My money is on Rosholt in this one.. Am concerned about him being KO'd late though.. Thinking of a small hedge play for insurance -

1433 Struve wins by TKO/KO +245*

To go along with this -

$100.00

$180.00

Pending

11/14/15 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision +180* <small>vs</small> Not Rosholt by 3 round decision

and the straight win play I have pending -

Pending11/14/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Jared Rosholt +105* <small>vs</small> Stefan Struve

[TPowell]

We've seen Rosholt get KO'd before against Alex Olienik 3 fights ago when he began to gas out.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jared-Rosholt-76763

Struve's reach and punching accuracy is a concern for sure but you gotta think the Rosholt wrestling will be the difference in this fight..

My money is on Rosholt in this one.. Am concerned about him being KO'd late though.. Thinking of a small hedge play for insurance -

1433 Struve wins by TKO/KO +245*

To go along with this -

$100.00

$180.00

Pending

11/14/15 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision +180* <small>vs</small> Not Rosholt by 3 round decision

look at the level of competition though. Struve is EASILY the best fighter he's ever faced. I have my doubts that Rosholt will be able to keep him on the ground

[BIGDAY]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!!

[Kermit]

Wonder how much weight she cuts? 30 pounds?

[JIBBBY]

^ Half dead zombie look for sure..

I gotta say body wise Rhonda only looks good to me after weight cuts.. She's got a thick mid section normally with small and that combination reminds me of dude otherwise...

She's got that fat gene inside her just waiting to bust out...

[mirinquads]

Ronda is huge for the division.

Chubby Ronda reminds me of how i picture your body looking JIbbby, no homo.

[Kermit]

Wonder how much weight she cuts? 30 pounds?

[Wrigley]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!!

Rhonda ready to kick her a$$ look at the weigh in Rhonda with game face on, Holm playing cute girl

[JIBBBY]

Ronda is huge for the division.

Chubby Ronda reminds me of how i picture your body looking JIbbby, no homo.

In your dreams pal.. Built like a solid rock over here. I'm not a chubby chaser either by the way

I'm ready to get this Card rolling!!! Let's get this people!! I've got over 20 bets pending across the board...

[Thrilla]

What are your thoughts on Ben Nguyen vs Ryan Benoit?

[mirinquads]

nGUYEN is better in the pocket and a better striker in general, better defensively. But Benoit has heart for days, and is durable.. Nguuyen caught a couple of TKO's early in his career.. Hard fight to bet, but went with Nguyen when he was the dog.

[Sanity Check]

what about Struve? I really dislike the goofy rooster_eater but this should be a layup against Rosholt. He's fought bums his entire career. He was finished by Alexey in round one. Alexey's similar to Struve in a few aspects. Both have great submission games and both have a sizable length advantage over Rosholt. I just can't see Rosholt winning this fight unless he keeps Struve grounded for the vast majority of 3 rounds.

Struve fought Stipe Miocic who has a division 1 amateur wrestling background. That's probably the closest Struve has come to facing a wrestler like Rosholt. I can't remember if Stipe used his wrestling or tried to get Struve down in that fight. Things could be different now that Struve had his heart surgery.

Struve's takedown defense looked good from what little I remember of his fight with Big Nog. Struve is known for having good jits off his back with a lot of subs in his career, even if Rosholt does manage to get him down. Struve should probably be the favorite but I can't say I've paid much attention to what Rosholt has been doing. If his wrestling is good and Struve is still suffering complications from the heart surgery he had, there might be a decent chance ofr him pulling the upset.

I doubt Rosholt can stand with Struve and have a chance. Struve is just too big and good at using his reach. He gets a lot of leverage off his strikes also, looks like.

[JIBBBY]

nGUYEN is better in the pocket and a better striker in general, better defensively. But Benoit has heart for days, and is durable.. Nguuyen caught a couple of TKO's early in his career.. Hard fight to bet, but went with Nguyen when he was the dog.

Good luck Mirster with that... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Nguyen-8183

I'm going in the other direction.. Ben Nyugen has been KO'd 4 times in his pro MMA career and while he's more experienced and maybe the more technical striker of the two I give Ryan Benoit a real punchers chance at the KO in this one.. Ryan Benoit has 7 KO victories in his 8 pro fight wins and has real power in his hands....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ryan-Benoit-48566

$50.00

$175.00

Pending

11/14/15 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2233 Benoit wins by TKO/KO +350* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[Sanity Check]

I got Nguyen but can't remember seeing him fight and have no idea how good or bad he is.

Nguyen's last win is over Alptekin Ozkillic who has a good wrestling background. If I remember right, Benoit is a wrestler similar to Alptekin. Benoit's was down 2 rounds against Sergio Pettis in his last fight up until Pettis decided to stand in the pocket and trade left hooks with Benoit.

I'm guessing Nguyen has the more technical stand up and will be able to finish Benoit or edge out a decision. But can't remember seeing Nguyen fight so I could be wrong on that.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Sanity you're betting fights that you don't even know or remember what the fighters are like? That's gutsy man!!!

I guess you gotta go with the favorite when betting like that.. I'll give ya that much bud!! GL...

You've been red hot lately so I can't knock your betting logic...

[VinagreSantos]

I think a bigger southpaw fighter cause a lot of trouble in the beginning of the fight but once Ronda adjusts ( and she usually adjusts very well) she´s going to press Holly. Ronda is a pressure fighter and Holly usually don´t strike moving backwards but Coach Wink could develop something for this situation too.
Another thing is that an orthodox vs southpaw stance better suits single legs than double legs..so i kind of see Holly trying to single leg Ronda just to make her think.
Unfortunately ( i´m an Holly fan), i think after Ronda adjusts to the distance diferential she´s going to get Holly into the clinch and will win with knees on the body.

[TPowell]

Struve fought Stipe Miocic who has a division 1 amateur wrestling background. That's probably the closest Struve has come to facing a wrestler like Rosholt. I can't remember if Stipe used his wrestling or tried to get Struve down in that fight. Things could be different now that Struve had his heart surgery.

Struve's takedown defense looked good from what little I remember of his fight with Big Nog. Struve is known for having good jits off his back with a lot of subs in his career, even if Rosholt does manage to get him down. Struve should probably be the favorite but I can't say I've paid much attention to what Rosholt has been doing. If his wrestling is good and Struve is still suffering complications from the heart surgery he had, there might be a decent chance ofr him pulling the upset.

I doubt Rosholt can stand with Struve and have a chance. Struve is just too big and good at using his reach. He gets a lot of leverage off his strikes also, looks like.

upset? The fight is basically a pickem. I agree it would be an upset and if you think it would be, why not take Struve? I just can't see how this line isn't Struve -180 or so