Bellator 143: Davis vs. Warren (September 25, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Spike, 9 p.m. ET
L.C. Davis vs. Joe Warren
Joey Beltran vs. Kendall Grove
Henry Corrales vs. Emmanuel Sanchez
Vinicius Queiroz vs. Ewerton Teixeira

Prelims, 6:30 p.m. ET
Dan Charles vs. Chase Gormley
Shawn Bunch vs. Darrion Caldwell
Gleristone Santos vs. John Teixeira
Jose Flores vs. Guillermo Gonzalez
Jared Chaffee vs. Guilherme Farias da Costa
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Bryce Meija
Dan Cervantes vs. Abram Torres
Saul Elizondo vs. Amador Ramos
Eduardo Bustillos vs. Steve Garcia

[JIBBBY]

Locky right on time!!!

Some Bellator props are up too...

<small>L.C. Davis vs Joe Warren - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Bellator 143 propositions</small>
Fri 9/25		3003 Davis / Warren goes 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> -190
10:30PM		3004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> +150
Fri 9/25		3005 Davis wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +305
10:30PM		3006 Not Davis inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -425
Fri 9/25		3007 Davis wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +414
10:30PM		3008 Not Davis by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -630
Fri 9/25		3009 Warren wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +370
10:30PM		3010 Not Warren inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -560
Fri 9/25		3011 Warren wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> -150
10:30PM		3012 Not Warren by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> +110
Fri 9/25		3013 Davis / Warren draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +13500
10:30PM		3014 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -40500

[JIBBBY]

Might try Davis straight up at +155... Joe Warren is getting up in age and LC Davis at 34 and winning 3 in row and 7 of his last 8 might simply out work Joey....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/LC-Davis-15208

[JIBBBY]

Rather then type it out, I'm liking this preview from MMAmania.. Think the predictions are spot on...http://www.mmamania.com/2015/9/24/93...ights-spike-tv

[Sanity Check]

Ewerton Teixeira has a 11-4 kickboxing record. 3 KO's in those 11 wins. 1 KO in his 3 MMA wins. He's never finished anyone good, all his KO finishes are against subpar competition. If Teixeira wins, I'm thinking it'll be by decision. They both haven't fought in 2 years, tough to say what will happen neither has fought recently.

IIRC, Joe Warren was winning his last fight up until he got submitted. He's shone good wrestling and cardio. I don't remember enough about LC Davis to guess how this fight goes. LC Davis is credited with being 5'8 @ 135. If he's big like Barao is at 5'8 he could have cardio issues Warren can capitalize on. Then again its only a 3 rd fight, not a 5 rder. Barao can go 3 hard rounds and LC Davis should be able to also. Its moreso when they have 5 round fights that they run into trouble.

Clueless on the other two fights. Clueless on all of them, if I'm going to be honest.

[JIBBBY]

This is more info on the fighters Sanity - Check the MMAmania link in my above post also.. I'll watch a few vids and make my final plays later..

http://combatpress.com/2015/09/bellator-143-warren-vs-davis-preview-and-predictions/



Kinda liking the Under 2.5 in this Kendall Grove/Beltran fight at +120.. Thinking either Kendall Grove gets the submission win or he gets knocked out.. Don't think either can make the 3 rounds.. Kendall Groves chin is suspect and Joey Beltran hits hard..

If the Joey Beltran wins by KO prop comes out and the odds are fat I may give that a shot also...

[the xx]

big on Teixeira, Davis, small on Bunch and Beltran

[the xx]

Quieroz's wrestling probably isnt good enough to take Teixeira down. Teixeira is great at distance, at least was in his kickboxing days, and should get a TKO.

LC Davis should be complete enough to fend off Joe Warren's one dimensional attack. Not sure Warren is even the better wrestler at this point. His chin is a ? too.

Expect Caldwell to beat Bunch but capped him in the -200 range myself so value play there.

I actually favor Beltran slightly over Grove. This is a fight that I want to stay away from but small bet on Beltran for perceived value.

Good luck to all

[Sanity Check]

This is more info on the fighters Sanity - Check the MMAmania link in my above post also.. I'll watch a few vids and make my final plays later..

http://combatpress.com/2015/09/bella...d-predictions/

I'm beginning to wonder about people who write reviews and predictions. Its almost like they have no common sense sometimes.

From the write up.

L.C. Davis is coming off of what is arguably the “Fight of the Year” against Hideo Tokoro. It was an absolutely amazing fight, and Davis deserves huge props for putting on a show and coming out with the victory.

Hideo Tokoro is 38 years old, he has a 32-28 record and is 2-5 in his last 7 fights. How do you give LC Davis props for defeating a guy way past his prime, who has a terrible record, who lost near to 70% of his fights over the last 4 years? On paper it looks like LC Davis is being fed cans to make himself look good. Davis in turn is a can being fed to Warren to make him look good because of all the time and money Bellator and viacom invested in promoting Warren & building him up. Maybe they're giving LC Davis more credit than he deserves to make Warren a -200 underdog rather than a -400 underdog. Then again I haven't seen LC Davis fight, maybe he is good?

Queiroz could look for the takedown, but his efforts will be too little, too late. Teixeira will already be in control and well on his way to securing a TKO victory.

Teixeira has never KO'ed anyone good. All his KO wins are against cans. Either they have inside info on Teixeira where Teixeira has been wrecking people in the gym, or they're missing the fact that he isn't a knockout artist. K-1 experience could be hugely overrated. There are K-1 kickboxers that move to MMA who are outstruck and knocked out by people who lack professional kickboxing experience. The idea that a K-1 kickboxer will move to MMA and knock everyone out usually doesn't work. Just look at Pat Barry, Alistair Overeem, Joe Schilling, etc etc.

Alistair Overeem is an elite K-1 kickboxer. He got KO'ed by Ben Rothwell, Antonio Silva and Travis Browne. Teixeira being from K-1 might not mean very much in the grand scheme of things.

[mirinquads]

Those writeups are as terrible as Davis defensive wrestling.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Well Sanity and Miri in case you didn't notice I often bet against the write up link predictions that I post up.. I just get bits and pieces of factual information on the fighters and apply that to the capping process... Just another tool are the write ups.. They can't hurt unless you blindly tail at times...

The MMAmania link I posted above is pretty solid though... Some of the youtube prediction vids are ok also..

I'd say watching the fighters last fight videos and taking a hard look at their sherdog/Wiki records and trends is the best way to go.. Compare fighting styles like we do.. However, you can gather training info, injury updates, and other abstract fighter info from the writer predictions links... They typically explain why they are making the pick which helps you decide whether they are lost and full of shiit or are onto something...

Just my take and that's why I post them up... Just another capping tool...

[JIBBBY]

Locked and loaded all bets in!!! Let's get ready to rumble


Going with LC Davis, Joey Beltran, Sanchez and Teixiera.. Also the " Beltran win inside the distance prop and the under.. Let's see what sticks in these pending bets below..

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

9/25/15 10:30pm Bellator Fighting 3001 L.C. Davis +140* <small>vs</small> Joe Warren

$100.00

$240.00

Pending

9/25/15 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3105 Beltran wins inside distance +240* <small>vs</small> Not Beltran inside distance

$52.20	$193.90	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/25/15 9:30pm Bellator Fighting 3202 Emmanuel Sanchez -175* <small>vs</small> Henry Corrales
				Pending	9/25/15 9:00pm Bellator Fighting 3301 Ewerton Teixeira +200* <small>vs</small> Vinicius Queiroz

$100.00

$120.00

Pending

9/25/15 10:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Joey Beltran/Kendall Grove Under 2½ +120*

11 of 16 wins have come by KO for Joey just for the record.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joey-Beltran-21219

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

so Beltran inside the distance?

[JIBBBY]

so Beltran inside the distance?

Kendal Grove has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kendall-Grove-10126

Brett Cooper knocked out Grove and I figure Beltan fights aggressive and probably hits harder then Brett Cooper.. I think either Beltran gets the KO win early or loses late by submission.. Worth a shot at those odds anyways was my thinking at +240.. (Most likely path to victory for Beltran if he wins is by KO and not be decision or Submission)

Beltran is nothing special though so you never know but he does have the better chin and hits harder.. Good enough for me..

[Unwritten Law]

I like Grove in this one. I guess it really depends if he's able to take Beltran down at will, if he does, he will win. Also, leaning Sanchez and Warren/Davis over 2.5.

[Sanity Check]

Queiroz vs Teixeira could be interesting. Queiroz moved from Team Nogueira to Kings MMA and is training with Werdum, RDA and those guys. He hasn't fought in 2 years due to knee issues and not wanting to return until his knees were 100%. Couldn't find info on Teixeira. He was Junior Dos Santos' training partner so he could be at Nova Uniao, unless he moved somewhere else. It'll be interesting to see how much he's improved over the past few years.

Beltran and LC Davis could be good calls. Joe Warren said he lost all his sponsors after his last loss and this fight is a must win. He's also said he's working on his punching power and going to try and knock LC Davis out. Probably the worst gameplan imaginable for someone with a suspect chin. If Warren wrestles I think he'll win. If he tries to brawl, I think LC Davis could catch him with a decent shot and maybe finish.

If I remember right, Kendall Grove has issues with both his knees, can't remember if he had surgery to fix his knees or not. Those knee issues could be the reason Grove has so much trouble with wrestlers like Halsey and hasn't done as well as people expected him to. Joey Beltran has been training with Brandon Halsey for awhile now. Beltran might be able to wrestle Grove with success if Grove has suspect knees. Beltran might also beat Grove standing.

[JIBBBY]

Well that dog didn't bark.. Teixeira had a chance if he could keep the fight standing.. He could not... Busted up my small 50 buck parlay.. Oh well... Just a fan in this next fight now...

[Sanity Check]

High fight IQ by Queiroz. 2-3 years in MMA usually isn't enough to learn to wrestle and defend subs like a pro.

Corrales looked completely out of his league in his last Bellator fight. He built up a winning record fighting in smaller organizations against smaller name competition. Let's see how he looks in his 2nd fight in the big leagues.

[JIBBBY]

High fight IQ by Queiroz. 2-3 years in MMA usually isn't enough to learn to wrestle and defend subs like a pro.

Corrales looked completely out of his league in his last Bellator fight. He built up a winning record fighting in smaller organizations against smaller name competition. Let's see how he looks in his 2nd fight in the big leagues.

You got that right Sanity.. Thought the kicking might be the difference in that fight with those lower leg kicks landing on Queiroz bad knees.. Not the case, his reconstructed knees held up..

[JIBBBY]

That judging was funny ... That dog hunted... One judge 30-27 the other 30-27 for the other fighter.. Bellator is a trip Cabron..



Big plays coming up.. Let's keep the Mexican flavor going.. Joey time!!!

[Sanity Check]

Things could get crazy if both competent judges have a split. The 3rd wheel captain insano judge could throw things into bizarro mirror world with those 30-27 Cathal Pendred verdicts. My stream isn't the best, did Corrales really do well enough to pitch a shutout?

Does anyone know if Grove had surgery to repair his knees? Have to think Beltran takes this if Grove has fought injured for the past 5+ years.

[JIBBBY]

Things could get crazy if both competent judges have a split. The 3rd wheel captain insano judge could throw things into bizarro mirror world with those 30-27 Cathal Pendred verdicts. My stream isn't the best, did Corrales really do well enough to pitch a shutout?

Does anyone know if Grove had surgery to repair his knees? Have to think Beltran takes this if Grove has fought injured for the past 5+ years.

It was tight every round but I had it 29-28 Sanchez myself.. 30-27 for each fighter was crazy judging.. 3rd judge still got it wrong IMO.. Gotta love Bellator judging.. They all see something different... Lulz....

[JIBBBY]

Kendal Grove on his horse in this fight so far.. This is not good after a round.. Both these fighters suck... Oh well...

Never seen a Hawaiian run in a fight, not even Kendal Grove up until this point...

[Killer_Demo]

Beltran sucks lol. His punching is horrible

[Sanity Check]

Kendal Grove on his horse in this fight so far.. This is not good after a round.. Both these fighters suck... Oh well...

Never seen a Hawaiian run in a fight, not even Kendal Grove up until this point...

lol yeah. Kendall has been training with Michael Bisping. Maybe its not hard to see the influence with Kendall constantly running away like how Bisping does.

I have it 1-1. Whoever wins the 3rd takes it.

[Sanity Check]

BOOM. Damn.

You can tell, there's no way Kendall learned that from Bisping.

[JIBBBY]

Joey got knocked out and it went over... lol... I'm done... Can't buy a win tonight with Bellator.. LC Davis please to save face...

[Sanity Check]

Alrite. Need Warren to finish my parlay. This is usually where the judges screw me.

Joey got knocked out and it went over... lol... I'm done... Can't buy a win tonight with Bellator.. LC Davis please to save face...

Good! Either way someone will win.

[Unwritten Law]

Bellator has been brutal. Will save it for UFC tomorrow, bright and early for me!

[JIBBBY]

Ohhh shit that fight went under.. Thank God.. I thought it went over.. That was a gift thank you....

That helps stop the bleeding..

Wager Won

329824151-1

$100.00

$120.00

Win

9/25/15 10:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Joey Beltran/Kendall Grove Under 2½ +120*

[Sanity Check]

Ohhh shit that fight went under.. Thank God.. I thought it went over.. That was a gift thank you....

That helps stop the bleeding..

Wager Won

329814151-1

$100.00

$120.00

Win

9/25/15 10:00pm Bellator Fighting 3101 Joey Beltran/Kendall Grove Under 2½ +120*

Right on!

Now we can see if Joe Warren (with a potentially glass jaw) gameplanning a firefight with his opponent goes better than someone in a glass house throwing stones.

[JIBBBY]

I'm on the opposite side of the fence with this fight Sanity.. Going with the beast LC Davis.. Best man wins...

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

9/25/15 10:30pm Bellator Fighting 3001 L.C. Davis +140* <small>vs</small> Joe Warren

[JIBBBY]

First round LC Davis got wrassle focked. Over looking decent now for some of you guys if he can repeat that in the second.... LC Davis could still land something solid standing if Warren starts to gas...

[JIBBBY]

Right on!

Now we can see if Joe Warren (with a potentially glass jaw) gameplanning a firefight with his opponent goes better than someone in a glass house throwing stones.

Good work Sanity.. Wrasslers rule and you called that and I didn't.. UFC tomorrow night when the real money starts flying.

[Sanity Check]

Good work Sanity.. Wrasslers rule and you called that and I didn't.. UFC tomorrow night when the real money starts flying.

Joe Warren is like a mini Ben Askren. He'll win the man hugger lifetime achievement award errytime.

I'm bummed there's only 10 fights tomorrow. Looks like the Kid Yamamoto fight got scrapped. Sometimes, the UFC's foreign cards are more predictable than their USA cards. Hopefully things will go better tomorrow for everyone.