JoshKnows UFN 73

**CaptChaos145** · 08-04-15, 11:35 AM

I like your idea with the over under with OSP & Glover. I like Max too.

I'm big on Dariush though. GL

**JIBBBY** · 08-04-15, 11:43 AM

OSP could knock out Glover early on or viiisa versa.. Both guys hit very hard.. That bet would make me a little nervous.. Hope you land it though Josh..

**JoshKnows46** · 08-04-15, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

OSP could knock out Glover early on or viiisa versa.. Both guys hit very hard.. That bet would make me a little nervous.. Hope you land it though Josh..

Both guys are durable, and glover likes to mix in takedowns with his striking, as does osp, osp will be too athletic for glover to start the fight, Did you see the punishment glover took against jon jones, so I don't worry about osp finishing him, and osp doesn't have cardio pass the first 2 rounds. Probable play glover by 4th round and 5th round finish as well.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-04-15, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I like your idea with the over under with OSP & Glover. I like Max too.

I'm big on Dariush though. GL

micheal Johnson will be able to keep the fight standing and dominate, southpaw vs southpaw favors johnson, Johnson is also good at getting right back up when taken down. Both guys are dangerous in there own way, but see this as a bad matchup for Dariush, though I'm very high on him. Gl cap.

**mirinquads** · 08-04-15, 12:58 PM

Glover was rocked against Bader and Maldonaldo. Getting up there in age. I think It will be OSP KO early or Glover submission Rds 3-4-5. Guess a sloppy decision is possible too.
Unibet actually lets you bet specific RD and finish which pays good

**JoshKnows46** · 08-04-15, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Glover was rocked against Bader and Maldonaldo. Getting up there in age. I think It will be OSP KO early or Glover submission Rds 3-4-5. Guess a sloppy decision is possible too.
Unibet actually lets you bet specific RD and finish which pays good

yes unibet and 5Dimes as well. He was rocked several times in the jones fight as well, guy is tough to finish, and great recovery time. Age is a bit of a worry though.

**Deceptakhan** · 08-04-15, 01:56 PM

I don't mind payin the chalk for the main fight to go to round 2

**PaperTrail07** · 08-04-15, 03:26 PM

High on Dariush As well...but MJ could get him.....tough call---if I had to---id lean MJ and not liek it lol

**bjpenn85** · 08-04-15, 03:41 PM

MJ should win this. How can he lose, hes beating edson barboza standing ENOUGH SAID!

**JIBBBY** · 08-04-15, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Glover was rocked against Bader and Maldonaldo. Getting up there in age. I think It will be OSP KO early or Glover submission Rds 3-4-5. Guess a sloppy decision is possible too.
Unibet actually lets you bet specific RD and finish which pays good

Yep Glover is slipping and so is his jaw and it shows in recent fights.. I'm actually going with this prop myself...

1037 Saint Preux wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+175

**JoshKnows46** · 08-04-15, 10:05 PM

Added:

Glover wins inside the 4th round +1200/ Holloway -180
$35 to win $672.78

Glover wins inside the 5th round +1900/ Holloway -180
$15 to win $451.67

**CaptChaos145** · 08-05-15, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

MJ should win this. How can he lose, hes beating edson barboza standing ENOUGH SAID!

Yes but this is a totally different matchup. MJ used an excellent game plan to fight Barboza... pressure him. Plus MJ had no fear of the TD cause Barboza doesn't go for them. Dariush presents different problems for MJ.

**CaptChaos145** · 08-05-15, 10:17 AM

I posted in another thread but I thought I would hit you guys up here too.

LIVE DOG: Bamgbose over Hall. The line has moved. You can get Bamgbose for +300 to +350. I know people that know both fighters. These same people are high on Bamgbose.

**bjpenn85** · 08-05-15, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Yes but this is a totally different matchup. MJ used an excellent game plan to fight Barboza... pressure him. Plus MJ had no fear of the TD cause Barboza doesn't go for them. Dariush presents different problems for MJ.

It was meant as a joke. I know that.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-06-15, 12:41 PM

OSP going to win in round 2...tko/KO --Glover will Gas and his punches will be in slow motion....

**JoshKnows46** · 08-06-15, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

OSP going to win in round 2...tko/KO --Glover will Gas and his punches will be in slow motion....

what makes you think that?, osp is the one with cardio problems, he'll be gassed from the 3rd round on, glover hasn't been stopped since 2012, by the 3rd round he will be completely in control of this fight. He has the better striking, grappling, experience, cardio and duribility... Osp only has power and atletisim on his side, but as I said that will only be for the first couple rounds. Glover stops him late or he wins a desision. This is the healthiest glover has been in a while, according to him. Osp would have lost to both jon jones and Phil Davis as well, he wouldn't have lasted even 2 rounds with jon jones, much less 5, I believe you should watch more film on these guys before u place your bets. Osp throws hard, but he doesn't have the combinations and striking defense, nor chin of glover, nor cardio to go 3 rounds much less 5.

**JIBBBY** · 08-06-15, 01:28 PM

^^^ Josh

OSP went the distance with Bader in a 5 rounder last year. Looked good to go against Cummins the entire time in his most recent fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842

Even though Glover stated he's in the best shape of his life going into this fight I believe OSP will match him for cardio in this 5 rounder if need be.. Glover Tex is usually the one looking punch drunk, breathing hard and pretty gassed out near the end of recent fights.....

**JoshKnows46** · 08-06-15, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^^ Josh

OSP went the distance with Bader in a 5 rounder last year. Looked good to go against Cummins the entire time in his most recent fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842

Even though Glover stated he's in the best shape of his life going into this fight I believe OSP will match him for cardio in this 5 rounder if need be.. Glover Tex is usually the one looking punch drunk, breathing hard and pretty gassed out near the end of recent fights.....

Jibby he didn't gas out in the jon jones fight, he got the living hell beat out of him, that's what that was.in the Phil fight he was carrying Davis's weight the whole fight, he's more comfortable trading punches, a wrestling match will be more taxing in his body. Glover can fight this fight with osp all night, this is the kinda style he thrives against, osp is more along the lines of a maldando or rampage. More so a younger rampage, he throws power but only throws one or two punches at a time, it's a bad style matchup against glover. Are you really impressed by a quick knockout of shogun and Cummings, neither guy has near the duribility or striking of glover. Not that it pertains to this fight but How do you believe osp would have looked against Phil Davis and jon jones. Your getting good line value on glover here because of two loses against tough matchups in jones and Davis and osp beating on a old shogun and Patrick freakin Cummings, come on now, think about it... The line isn't based on skill, it's based on the publics recent memory of the two, don't waste your money on osp, he doesn't have the skill to take out glover or the skill to win a decision. You see glover as fading, I just see a guy that went against two stylistically bad matchups. Even if your right, and I'm wrong, even a declined glover can beat a up incoming osp. The over 1.5 rounds is the best play on the board, but glover takes him out late.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-06-15, 03:28 PM

Added:

Gates wins inside the distance +545 $100
Hall wins inside the distance -128 $500
Hall wins in round 1 +200 $50

**bjpenn85** · 08-06-15, 03:43 PM

wiillie gates looks dangerous. Im not on dustin ortiz this weekend. Probably a smart bet, because if it goes the distance i doubt gates is the one that getting his hand raised.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-06-15, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

wiillie gates looks dangerous. Im not on dustin ortiz this weekend. Probably a smart bet, because if it goes the distance i doubt gates is the one that getting his hand raised.

I disagree, if Ortiz survives the fight, then he loses a decision. What makes you think gates loses a decision? I don't find ortiz's wrestling to be that good and he's completly outmatched in the stand-up. You should put a little sumthin sumthin on gates.

**bjpenn85** · 08-07-15, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

I disagree, if Ortiz survives the fight, then he loses a decision. What makes you think gates loses a decision? I don't find ortiz's wrestling to be that good and he's completly outmatched in the stand-up. You should put a little sumthin sumthin on gates.

Then you should instead place a bet on gates straight instead of losing out on profit if gates wins by decision.Im not sold on gates yet.

**bjpenn85** · 08-07-15, 11:02 AM

After watching more tape of gates im more or less confident he will lose. Line is off anyway so probably a decent bet.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Then you should instead place a bet on gates straight instead of losing out on profit if gates wins by decision.Im not sold on gates yet.

No, because Ortiz is in that much of a disadvantage striking, I might add 100 more inside distance Ortiz has very poor striking defense, and gates has a 5 inch reach advantage, if the fight goes as I see it, there's no reason to bet gates straight. It's safer yes, but it not worth the 200 you would lose in value.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

After watching more tape of gates im more or less confident he will lose. Line is off anyway so probably a decent bet.

Watch tape on Ortiz. No reason he should be anywhere close to this big a favorite against willie. It's a bet as much against Ortiz as it is for gates.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 12:41 PM

Added:
Gates wins by Tko/Ko +675 $50
Gates +350 $50

Brunson -400/Holloway -180/Watson over 2.5 rounds -250
$500 to win $861.11

**PaperTrail07** · 08-07-15, 12:58 PM

OSP as his cardio on point right now...that is where I think Glover will lose...his cardio...I agree OSP would have lost both of those as well....but i think Glover just gets caught and goes down TKO....OSP's cardio is good to go....

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

what makes you think that?, osp is the one with cardio problems, he'll be gassed from the 3rd round on, glover hasn't been stopped since 2012, by the 3rd round he will be completely in control of this fight. He has the better striking, grappling, experience, cardio and duribility... Osp only has power and atletisim on his side, but as I said that will only be for the first couple rounds. Glover stops him late or he wins a desision. This is the healthiest glover has been in a while, according to him. Osp would have lost to both jon jones and Phil Davis as well, he wouldn't have lasted even 2 rounds with jon jones, much less 5, I believe you should watch more film on these guys before u place your bets. Osp throws hard, but he doesn't have the combinations and striking defense, nor chin of glover, nor cardio to go 3 rounds much less 5.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-07-15, 12:59 PM

100%....OSP need to avoid the 1st round KO and hes good....keep the distance

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^^ Josh

OSP went the distance with Bader in a 5 rounder last year. Looked good to go against Cummins the entire time in his most recent fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842

Even though Glover stated he's in the best shape of his life going into this fight I believe OSP will match him for cardio in this 5 rounder if need be.. Glover Tex is usually the one looking punch drunk, breathing hard and pretty gassed out near the end of recent fights.....

**PaperTrail07** · 08-07-15, 01:01 PM

Love that Hall -128....that is a steal.....I also think that Camozzi beats Watson...I cant imagine a 5th loss in a row for him...this is his keep your job fight and i think he will do enough to edge out a decision...

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Love that Hall -128....that is a steal.....I also think that Camozzi beats Watson...I cant imagine a 5th loss in a row for him...this is his keep your job fight and i think he will do enough to edge out a decision...

I agree, slight lean to camozzi, but I'm only betting the over 2.5 rounds.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

100%....OSP need to avoid the 1st round KO and hes good....keep the distance

So osp will do what men like maldando, rampage, and jon jones couldn't do?... OSP WILL NOT STOP GLOVER!!. Osp is similar to a young rampage, he has power but doesn't throw more than one or two punches at a time, Glover will Absolutely take this kid to school in the stand-up.

**PaperTrail07** · 08-07-15, 01:40 PM

Yes he will.....he is super pumped to be fighting in Nashville and i just think he brings it and gets the W....cardio is on point and his heart agility will be enough

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

So osp will do what men like maldando, rampage, and jon jones couldn't do?... OSP WILL NOT STOP GLOVER!!. Osp is similar to a young rampage, he has power but doesn't throw more than one or two punches at a time, Glover will Absolutely take this kid to school in the stand-up.

**JoshKnows46** · 08-07-15, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Yes he will.....he is super pumped to be fighting in Nashville and i just think he brings it and gets the W....cardio is on point and his heart agility will be enough

Its gonna be a good fight because of him fighting a home, but the value is with glover at even money though, line is set on public perception of the two, Glover is the more skilled fighter, osp could possible win a decision if his cardio is improved and he can keep up the pace he usually has for the first 2 rounds. I have bets on glover to win in the 4th and 5th. Was planning on playing him straight for 250
after the weighins/line movement, but I might wait to make a play on glover live after the first 2 rounds, haven't decided yet how to play it,. Believe we'll have good odds on glover after the 2nd, to either make a play on glover or if your backing osp, to hedge a little, might have a better idea were osp's cardio is at by the end of the 2nd, could have a bit of a adrenalin dump fighting in the main event in front of his home. Good luck with ur bets.

**mirinquads** · 08-07-15, 03:38 PM

Glover has a much greater chance of winning a decision. OSP's output is low, he's a counter puncher through and through. An athlete like OSP can't just all of a sudden have 'worked on his cardio' and have cardio to go 5 rounds. Some people's bodies are just not build for that, no matter how much they run on a treadmill. You can't replicate the stress of being in a real fight either, that shit will wear on your too, especially when you're the less experienced guy.
Glover slimmed down for this fight too, so if anything i believe more in his cardio for sure.

I still have OSP +140 and +175, mostly due to value. Not sure what I will do here yet.