JoshKnows UFN 73

[JoshKnows46]

Glover has a much greater chance of winning a decision. OSP's output is low, he's a counter puncher through and through. An athlete like OSP can't just all of a sudden have 'worked on his cardio' and have cardio to go 5 rounds. Some people's bodies are just not build for that, no matter how much they run on a treadmill. You can't replicate the stress of being in a real fight either, that shit will wear on your too, especially when you're the less experienced guy.
Glover slimmed down for this fight too, so if anything i believe more in his cardio for sure.

I still have OSP +140 and +175, mostly due to value. Not sure what I will do here yet.

I agree completely, but I give osp a better shot at a decision then I do of him finishing glover. That's what I'm saying. You got nice numbers on osp, you have a chance to win some change regardless by betting glover after weigh-ins, are go a little more risking and betting glover after the 1st round, I believe osp will be more effective in the 1st round because of his movement and physical advantages, possible the 2nd.

[PaperTrail07]

all the sudden worked on cardio? ...Been a main goal of his and the last 2 fights ended in the first....so sure doubt that he has improved his cardio LOL...why--no reason but sure--he will gas...you can change your body...look at Kevin Casey as an example...guy had too much muscle mass and was gassing...slimmed down and worked on cardio and VOILA...The site I mainly use has OSP -105 and Glover -115....I am going to hope OSP moves to a bigger + and take it, otherwise i will just play OSP small as I know what your saying and I respect others opinions...

Glover has a much greater chance of winning a decision. OSP's output is low, he's a counter puncher through and through. An athlete like OSP can't just all of a sudden have 'worked on his cardio' and have cardio to go 5 rounds. Some people's bodies are just not build for that, no matter how much they run on a treadmill. You can't replicate the stress of being in a real fight either, that shit will wear on your too, especially when you're the less experienced guy.
Glover slimmed down for this fight too, so if anything i believe more in his cardio for sure.

I still have OSP +140 and +175, mostly due to value. Not sure what I will do here yet.

[PaperTrail07]

Gl to you too sir.....not against anyone hitting a bet-----UNLESS I am on the other side...-----a fight this debatable has me questioning betting it lol

I agree completely, but I give osp a better shot at a decision then I do of him finishing glover. That's what I'm saying. You got nice numbers on osp, you have a chance to win some change regardless by betting glover after weigh-ins, are go a little more risking and betting glover after the 1st round, I believe osp will be more effective in the 1st round because of his movement and physical advantages, possible the 2nd.

[JoshKnows46]

To stop the fight inside the distance:
give osp 5% chance
give glover 70% chance

Fight goes the distance 25% of the time...

If it goes to decision:
give osp 40% chance
give glover 60% chance

most likely outcome is glover by stoppage, sub or Ko, if it goes to decision, osp still loses on lack of volume, unless he can create some takedowns, osp's movement, youth and atletisim should get him through the first 2 rounds, but from the 3rd to 5th, his lack of striking skill will show itself as his movement slows. Glover finishes in the 4th.

[JoshKnows46]

Gl to you too sir.....not against anyone hitting a bet-----UNLESS I am on the other side...-----a fight this debatable has me questioning betting it lol

Im not putting much on a side either, only $50 on glover so far, split between 4th and 5th round finishes. I love the over 1.5 rounds however, believe the over 1.5 rounds is the best play on this entire card.

[mirinquads]

all the sudden worked on cardio? ...Been a main goal of his and the last 2 fights ended in the first....so sure doubt that he has improved his cardio LOL...why--no reason but sure--he will gas...you can change your body...look at Kevin Casey as an example...guy had too much muscle mass and was gassing...slimmed down and worked on cardio and VOILA...The site I mainly use has OSP -105 and Glover -115....I am going to hope OSP moves to a bigger + and take it, otherwise i will just play OSP small as I know what your saying and I respect others opinions...

I'm not saying he won't have improved cardio, I'm sure he will (almost can't get worse, lylz) what i'm saying is that I don't think OSP will ever be able to go 5 rounds of full on action without gassing, no matter how much he trains his cardio.

OSP actually looked better than usual, and Glover as well. This might be a pretty good scrap.

[getlucky2win]

To stop the fight inside the distance:
give osp 5% chance
give glover 70% chance

Fight goes the distance 25% of the time...

If it goes to decision:
give osp 40% chance
give glover 60% chance

if u really think those are the percentages u must have a ton bet on this fight. gl but i thnk ur numbers are off

[latarianmilton]

Why the over? Both are monster punchers, both have been knocked out plus they are easy to hit.
I think the Bader fight gave people the wrong impression, both guys were wary of each other. This is gonna be a lot like Shogun vs OSP, Glover is gonna pressure then a quick exchange and someone getting sparked. I don't think OSP is gonna run from the exchanges.

[JoshKnows46]

if u really think those are the percentages u must have a ton bet on this fight. gl but i thnk ur numbers are off

No only have 35 on glover 4th round finish, and 15 bucks on 5th round finish, I was gonna wait till after weighins to get a better price on glover, but believe I can live bet it after the first or 2nd round and get a better price. Planning to put 250 on glover after the first, and 250 on glover after the 2nd. Think osp's movement can give him some problems for the first 1.5 rounds of the fight, osp is very active In the first 2 rounds, but he throws arm punches and wears himself out, his lack of head movement and striking defense will be a huge problem for him from the 2nd round till glover finishes him. Osp relies heavily on his physical tools, he doesn't have the technique yet for this step up in comp, or the cardio to go 5 hard rounds as glover proved he had when he got the living hell beat out of him vs jones for 5 rounds, no one else in the division could have took that punishment, he's a tough sob.

[JoshKnows46]

Why the over? Both are monster punchers, both have been knocked out plus they are easy to hit.
I think the Bader fight gave people the wrong impression, both guys were wary of each other. This is gonna be a lot like Shogun vs OSP, Glover is gonna pressure then a quick exchange and someone getting sparked. I don't think OSP is gonna run from the exchanges.

Glover and osp are both good at using striking to set up takedowns, one May go this route, glover hasn't been stooped by sub or Ko in 13 years, since his first pro fight, osp throws one or two punches at a time, not enough to finish glover. I believe osp's movement and athletsim will allow him to survive 2-3 rounds, till his cardio gives way and glover takes over. Think we see a good bit of clinch work, pushing each other against the cage, both guys are very durable , IMO this fight easily sails into the 3rd round.

[getlucky2win]

if u thnk osp has only 5pct chance of winning itd. u should bet some props

[JoshKnows46]

if u thnk osp has only 5pct chance of winning itd. u should bet some props

Not osp in the distance at -184 is a outstanding bet, but I don't see him winning a dec either, so I will put my money on the better fighter at plus odds and maximize my profit on the dollar. I'll maximize Even more by betting him after the 1st round. I'm risking a sure thing for a better profit, if glover comes out and wins the first round I cost myself a couple hundred, but I lose nothing. Small risk, but I feel I have a good read on how this fight will unfold, so I'll wait to get glover at +200 or more after the 1st round.

[UncleChael]

10 minutes with OSP will be too much for Glover Texeira..

[JoshKnows46]

Small stabs on dogs that I believe to be overly priced, think one can pull through for us.

Herrera +400/Brunson -420/holloway -180
$30 to win $258.89

Christodoulou +625/Brunson -420/holloway -180
$15 to win $199.44

[JoshKnows46]

10 minutes with OSP will be too much for Glover Texeira..

Nope, only worry I have is osp's lack of head movement. Osp is a bad bet my friend.

[getlucky2win]

Not osp in the distance at -184 is a outstanding bet, but I don't see him winning a dec either, so I will put my money on the better fighter at plus odds and maximize my profit on the dollar. I'll maximize Even more by betting him after the 1st round. I'm risking a sure thing for a better profit, if glover comes out and wins the first round I cost myself a couple hundred, but I lose nothing. Small risk, but I feel I have a good read on how this fight will unfold, so I'll wait to get glover at +200 or more after the 1st round.

josh dont know shit

[JoshKnows46]

josh dont know shit

Why would you say that? Teach me something then, how do you see this fight playing out? Then after the fights over, you can tell me who's your daddy...please inform me genius lol

[getlucky2win]

sorry. maybe 500 is a big percentage of your bankroll. has nothing to do with how i see the fight playing out. are u familiar with kelly?

[JoshKnows46]

sorry. maybe 500 is a big percentage of your bankroll. has nothing to do with how i see the fight playing out. are u familiar with kelly?

Yes I am, I don't follow any rules or laws about betting kid, I make my own rules, I'm my own man, I bet this fight as I see fit to bet it, I only live by 3 rules in life: eat twat, smoke pot, and smile alot!!

Just sit back, relax and enjoy the show, you'll be shown how the rules don't apply to everyone, Josh Knows. I'm exceptional, I've been profitable for the last 5 years in mma, and the last 15 years in the nfl/ncaafb doing things my way.

[getlucky2win]

nice rules. math is for nerds anywayz. u have any wk 1 bets? i bet alot of teasers. couldnt wait for nfl. had to bet some canadian football

[JoshKnows46]

nice rules. math is for nerds anywayz. u have any wk 1 bets? i bet alot of teasers. couldnt wait for nfl. had to bet some canadian football

First, don't bet teasers in the nfl, point spreads 6.5 or lower rarely come into effect, which means if you believe a dog of 6.5 can cover the spread, there's around a 88% chance they will also win straight up, if you think the favorite will win, don't worry about laying the points, the spread doesn't matter till you get to -7 and over. Don't bother with teasers, play dog Mls on the dogs you like, and take a good look at divisional home dogs, and teams traveling across time zones for the early 12 o'clock games, teams that lose their center the week before are usually good fades, pay attention to the strengths of the offensive and defensive lines, that is were games are won and lost, bet against public perception when you get a favorable line against a hot team, bet against teams when they have a divisional game the week before and week after, it's called a sandwich game or a letdown game as the game in between the divisional games is less meaningful, bet against teams on short weeks expecially when they have to travel, say they play Sunday night, then again on Thursday.... That's just some things to look for, Absolutly stay away from all parlays and teasers when betting on the nfl.... I only bet one game so far, it's New Orleans +3, I'd wait closer to the actual game if you r gonna tail, could have injurys to either side in a months time. I'm also on New Orleans to with the NFC south, conference championship and the Super Bowl for 500 each, they win the NFC south easily, 500 to win 1050, with that 1050 I'll be free rolling to win another 9,000+ and 22,000+, Greenbay will be the only other team in the hunt for homefield advantage through out the playoffs in the nfc.

[bjpenn85]

Small stabs on dogs that I believe to be overly priced, think one can pull through for us.

Herrera +400/Brunson -420/holloway -180
$30 to win $258.89

Christodoulou +625/Brunson -420/holloway -180
$15 to win $199.44

I also go for herrera, and especially after that weigh in. Ray Borg didnt look to good. Herrera looks very stellar and i dont think its a coincidence ufc match him up with Borg, I do think the UFC think highly of him.

[JoshKnows46]

I also go for herrera, and especially after that weigh in. Ray Borg didnt look to good. Herrera looks very stellar and i dont think its a coincidence ufc match him up with Borg, I do think the UFC think highly of him.

Completly agree, should be a very good scrap, Herrera just needs to watch out for the rnc.

[JoshKnows46]

added:

Watson / Camozzi FOTN award winner +800 $50 to win $400
Mcmann / Nunes FOTN award winner +1675 $25 to win $418.75
Glover/ OSP FOTN award winner +500 $15 to win $75

[JoshKnows46]

Willie gates is up to +1000 by Ko/Tko at 5 dimes, I had to add another $100 on that, if any of you have a account with 5dimes, I'd suggest putting a min of $50 on this prob.

Added:
Willie Gates by Ko/Tko +1000 $100 to win $1000

[KingHawkins]

I love this value on a Gates KO. I had to grab some at +950 (5D)

[bjpenn85]

Willie gates is up to +1000 by Ko/Tko at 5 dimes, I had to add another $100 on that, if any of you have a account with 5dimes, I'd suggest putting a min of $50 on this prob.

Added:
Willie Gates by Ko/Tko +1000 $100 to win $1000

sometimes youre very off. I dont know exactly how you think. Youre def wrong on underdogs..but youre good with favourites. But you def need to slow down on underdogs. You heavily overvalue underdogs that suck. Like dominick steele, now gates, and next time, whoevere. I say this sincerely out of...love or something, not of criticisms.

[bjpenn85]

321481916

8/8/15 8:57pm

$198.75

$198.75

Wager Won

321183279-1

$15.00

$183.75

Win

8/8/15 8:30pm Props Fighting 1825 Ortiz wins in round 3 +1225* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Any other result

...ops..look at this laser sharp wager.

[JoshKnows46]

sometimes youre very off. I dont know exactly how you think. Youre def wrong on underdogs..but youre good with favourites. But you def need to slow down on underdogs. You heavily overvalue underdogs that suck. Like dominick steele, now gates, and next time, whoevere. I say this sincerely out of...love or something, not of criticisms.

Not always, hit werdum for $400 to win $1200, no one is gonna hit a high percentage of underdogs, or even 50 percent, that isn't the goal, and isn't needed to profit on them. Gates had a stupid gameplan, he trains with good wrestlers and has solid takedown defense but he desided to throw body kicks, which allowed him to get wrestle ****** because of easy takedowns, and that gassed him, should have stuck to just his hands like Johnson did, still think it was a solid wager for the price, just poor fighter iq and a short notice that I didn't know about unfortunately.

[bjpenn85]

Not always, hit werdum for $400 to win $1200, no one is gonna hit a high percentage of underdogs, or even 50 percent, that isn't the goal, and isn't needed to profit on them. Gates had a stupid gameplan, he trains with good wrestlers and has solid takedown defense but he desided to throw body kicks, which allowed him to get wrestle ****** because of easy takedowns, and that gassed him, should have stuck to just his hands like Johnson did, still think it was a solid wager for the price, just poor fighter iq and a short notice that I didn't know about unfortunately.

fair enough. you cant hit them all.

[capone1899]

I posted in another thread but I thought I would hit you guys up here too.

LIVE DOG: Bamgbose over Hall. The line has moved. You can get Bamgbose for +300 to +350. I know people that know both fighters. These same people are high on Bamgbose.

Who were "these people" because that was the biggest beat down of the card