UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 (July 25, 2015)

[PaperTrail07]

Not that the amount of $$ he bets matters.....but he picks his spots and is usually on point....

[brooks85]

better get your fill

mid august til beginning of nov going to be painful waiting 2 weeks between events. At least there will be football.

[Sanity Check]

^good perspective...yeah, Jessy made Leslie Smith seem like Anderson Silva teeing off on a heavy bag

you sufficiently rained on my "free money"/"massive gift" parade...
"lamp-post+150, danger will robinson!"

I agree with you & think Duke will win.

But I can see why Phillips is the fav.

[JIBBBY]

better get your fill

mid august til beginning of nov going to be painful waiting 2 weeks between events. At least there will be football.

Yep Brooks.... The UFC events are slowing down. Bellator and WSOF will hopefully fill in those gaps..

Love football but absolutely dread betting on it.. I lose every year trying to pick em myself.. I'm cursed in that sport I tell thee... Will be looking to tail a proven winner off twitter in football again this year.. Saved my arse doing just that on the second half of last season...

[UncleChael]

Dillashaw + Cummings + Lauzon they're all gifts SBR.

[fitguy67]

random notes on the why/how of NFL being unbettable, and increasingly so with each year's incomprehensible "rule changes"...giving increasingly more discretion to the old-codger zebras to alter the game's outcome (for exampe, and especially: the ever-devolving micro-minutiae of what constitutes PI and what differentiates the offensive and defensive versions of it)...

with each passing season, the players' performances that you CAN cap have less and less to do with the final outcome of a typical game...i reckon it's the uncappable/volatile performance of the "officiating team" (including/especially the goddam "video review" litigations that proliferate over what are jokingly called "the last two minutes") that determine the game's result more than the sum total of all the players' performances

here are a few of my recent tweets on this...
____________

mercan"foot"ball has unfortunately turned into un-cappable series of overly-important/surprising-bad "calls", esp PI

NFL>>NBPIFDL (National "Bogus PI-Flag Drawing" League)...all refs Alzheimer-cert'd/Champs awarded OSCARS, not rings

ridiculously intricate rules
+fallible human officials
+teams/players milking the two above points
=unbettable/unwatchable excrement

________________

everything i said above applies to basketball as well...in both forms of aggravation/entertainment (hard to call them "sports" really) the last two minutes lasts a goddam hour of real life...

soccer, a truly beautiful game has always suffered from the referee holding the entire game's prospect in his hand (red cards and penalty kicks are like limb-amputations instead of slaps across the wrist)
____________

Hockey, baseball, rugby (if you like NFL...switch to NRL--aussie Rugby League...way better continuously-flowing action without all the pussified crap like "taking knees" instead of running the goddam ball), and volleyball are about only team-sports left where players' performances STILL largely decide the winner

whatever the sport, the less often the action is interrupted for a goddam whistle the better is the spectacle...and the better is the game for betting as well, as more of what you cap is allowed to actually dictate the event...with less arbitrary and downright stupid shit screwing with it

[UncleChael]

Joe Rogan: "You think TJ Dillashaw is ready for a title shot?".

[JIBBBY]

Dillashaw + Cummings + Lauzon they're all gifts SBR.

Tell it on the mountain Unc!!!

[JIBBBY]

^^ Fitguy the ref hater.. Lol.. Welcome to the world of sports and gambling..

There is some truth to what you say in your above post but it's nothing new.. However, you did leave out MMA in your rant.. Between the nervous ref and blind judging in MMA a fighter can get screwed just as fast..

I've seen a premature ref stoppage and a complete judging error happen in the past 2 mma events come to think of it.. I'm sure you saw them as well.. Cleary extremely bad calls blowing up big bets and sending what would be a potentially winning fighter to a disappointing and unfair loss...

I've been royally screwed and extremely lucky, benifited from good and bad judging and octagon ref'ing in the past.. I bitch and moan but it usually balances itself out over time..

That's sports betting pal..... Get use to it and roll with the punches.. Shiiit happens...

[JoshKnows46]

random notes on the why/how of NFL being unbettable, and increasingly so with each year's incomprehensible "rule changes"...giving increasingly more discretion to the old-codger zebras to alter the game's outcome (for exampe, and especially: the ever-devolving micro-minutiae of what constitutes PI and what differentiates the offensive and defensive versions of it)...

with each passing season, the players' performances that you CAN cap have less and less to do with the final outcome of a typical game...i reckon it's the uncappable/volatile performance of the "officiating team" (including/especially the goddam "video review" litigations that proliferate over what are jokingly called "the last two minutes") that determine the game's result more than the sum total of all the players' performances

here are a few of my recent tweets on this...
____________

mercan"foot"ball has unfortunately turned into un-cappable series of overly-important/surprising-bad "calls", esp PI

NFL>>NBPIFDL (National "Bogus PI-Flag Drawing" League)...all refs Alzheimer-cert'd/Champs awarded OSCARS, not rings

ridiculously intricate rules
+fallible human officials
+teams/players milking the two above points
=unbettable/unwatchable excrement

________________

everything i said above applies to basketball as well...in both forms of aggravation/entertainment (hard to call them "sports" really) the last two minutes lasts a goddam hour of real life...

soccer, a truly beautiful game has always suffered from the referee holding the entire game's prospect in his hand (red cards and penalty kicks are like limb-amputations instead of slaps across the wrist)
____________

Hockey, baseball, rugby (if you like NFL...switch to NRL--aussie Rugby League...way better continuously-flowing action without all the pussified crap like "taking knees" instead of running the goddam ball), and volleyball are about only team-sports left where players' performances STILL largely decide the winner

whatever the sport, the less often the action is interrupted for a goddam whistle the better is the spectacle...and the better is the game for betting as well, as more of what you cap is allowed to actually dictate the event...with less arbitrary and downright stupid shit screwing with it

mma is far harder then football, you can figure out which teams get the most fouls, and not bet said teams on the road when going against teams that are getting fewer flags... In mma your at complete mercy to the judges, and refs. I consistancy win at the pro level every year, had 2 down years at the college level. I don't find it any harder to handicap this sport. Lines are soft to start the season, so public usually rakes it in the first 3-4 weeks, they spend the rest of the season giving it back and reloading. It's a simple game to figure out.

fewer games then baseball and basketball, more meaningful games, 6 division games, makes it the easiest sport to bet, outside of mma this is the only sport I put my money on.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

christ Gomi +300 vs Lauzon? Is Lauzon really gonna blow Gomi out like Jury did? I see this playing out more like Gomi vs Sanchez or Danzig

[fitguy67]

^^ Fitguy the ref hater.. Lol.. Welcome to the world of sports and gambling..

There is some truth to what you say in your above post but it's nothing new.. However, you did leave out MMA in your rant.. Between the nervous ref and blind judging in MMA a fighter can get screwed just as fast..

I've seen a premature ref stoppage and a complete judging error happen in the past 2 mma events come to think of it.. I'm sure you saw them as well.. Cleary extremely bad calls blowing up big bets and sending what would be a potentially winning fighter to a disappointing and unfair loss...

I've been royally screwed and extremely lucky, benifited from good and bad judging and octagon ref'ing in the past.. I bitch and moan but it usually balances itself out over time..

That's sports betting pal..... Get use to it and roll with the punches.. Shiiit happens...

i was confining my last rant to TEAM sports...i'm equally pissed off with MMA officiating (in-cage and out)...

a few surprisingly easy-to-implement changes could improve things greatly...in order of importance...

****replace the 4 indirect judging criterion with ONE direct judging criterion=damage infliction...a judge must simply ask themselves the WIRHBTR question "who'd i rather have been that round" (more on judging below)...bottom line is real fighting is fundamentally NOT a beauty contest...it's a damage contest...that's the trouble with the 4 sub-criteria: they take the focus off the goal of the techniques one employs=damage...and somehow, if you aren't careful makes it a contest not to INFLICT damage but to DEMONSTRATE skills related to it


***allow/encourage the 10-10 when the answer to WIRHBTR question is not clear (forcing these dolts to "guess" is behind the lion's share of SMH decisions)...if it's not clear to you as a judge who won that round, the 10-10 is the best score to give...judge's should have to be able to justify, on the basis of a palpable net-difference in damage-infliction...and not be forced to fukkin "guess"...cuz when forced to guess, they always take the safe route and give a 10-9 to the fave, figuring it at least gives them "company" on the guess...

**allow/encourage the 10-9, 10-8, hell even 10-7 (eg. Maynard over Frankie in R1 of their second fight should be the judge-training example for this extreme score...)...a judge's job is to EVALUATE (evaluate what was covered in the first point: DAMAGE, son...not 4 overlapping/subsidiary/often conflicting "criteria")...not just hit one of two 10-9 buttons...it you're REALLY glad you weren't B that round, strongly consider giving B an 8 or in very rare cases, even an 7

before leaving judging, let me demonstrate exactly what i mean by looking at 2 of BigRig Hendrick's most important recent fights, where the official result would have CLEARLY been 100% had my proposed single-criterion been in effect

on the basis of DAMAGE, these are the clear results that should have been registered:

Condit clearly beat Hendricks, despite being on the bottom for much of the fight...demonstrating the ability to take a man down and let him up counts zero in the damage-infliction department

Hendricks clearly beat GSP
__________________

*finally, for chrissakes replace the existing "definition" of a grounded fighter from whatever the fukk the mishmash is...and make it dead simple...hinging on/requiring that to be grounded a fighter must have "at least one knee" flush on the mat...PERIOD...

current bullshit where a STANDING fighter can bend over and touch the mat with his fukking fingertips and become immune from knees blows chunks...you wanna be safe from knees, then you gotta legitimately give up position and really ground yourself by dropping to a knee

__________

these are the surprisingly-simple elements to the way forward...
alas, i'm but a theoretician...not an activist...
so i close this word blizzard with a prayer

please MMA...develop and institutionalize some common sense along the above-suggested lines so that i might win more of the bets i should win...and lose more of the bets i should lose...and my bankroll (and blood-pressure) swing less violently on their way to heaven

[JIBBBY]

christ Gomi +300 vs Lauzon? Is Lauzon really gonna blow Gomi out like Jury did? I see this playing out more like Gomi vs Sanchez or Danzig

This fight I did second guess a bit, but initially I thought Joe to have the grappling advantage, home court, youth and maybe even cardio on his side.. He does have the slight reach and height over Gomi.. Asian fade is something I considered as well.. I saw that Asian fade thing go into full effect in the Rani Yayha fight..

Hey but Joe is certainly beatable with 10 losses and he has been KO'd 4 times before, so the fire ball kid could possibly stick and move and land a bomb at some point with 13 of his 35 wins coming by way of KO.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Takanori-Gomi-425

Gomi did just get steam rolled by Miles Jury like ya said Locky... My final thinking is that Gomi at age 36 hasn't evolved much in the sport and perhaps his best days in the cage are behind him now.. Gotta think Joe pulls out this win somehow, if not on the ground he probably hangs standing and eeeks out a decision. The one thing about Joe though is that he is a tough kid and always comes to fight.......http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joe-Lauzon-4923

-300 is nuts though I can't lie.. I'm stuck on Joe but it might not be a bad play to go with Gomi if the odds slip some more..

[JIBBBY]

i was confining my last rant to TEAM sports...i'm equally pissed off with MMA officiating (in-cage and out)...

a few surprisingly easy-to-implement changes could improve things greatly...in order of importance...

****replace the 4 indirect judging criterion with ONE judging criterion...damage infliction...a judge must simply ask themselves the WIRHBTR question "who'd i rather have been that round" (more on judging below)...bottom line is real fighting is fundamentally NOT a beauty contest...it's a damage contest...that's the trouble with the 4 sub-criteria: they take the focus off the goal of the techniques one employs=damage...and somehow, if you aren't careful makes it a contest not to INFLICT damage but to DEMONSTRATE skills related to it


***allow/encourage the 10-10 when the answer to WIRHBTR question is not clear (forcing these dolts to "guess" is behind the lion's share of SMH decisions)...if it's not clear to you as a judge who won that round, the 10-10 is the best score to give...judge's should have to be able to justify, on the basis of a palpable net-difference in damage-infliction...and not be forced to fukkin "guess"...cuz when forced to guess, they always take the safe route and give a 10-9 to the fave, figuring it at least gives them "company" on the guess...

**allow/encourage the 10-9, 10-8, hell even 10-7 (eg. Maynard over Frankie in R1 of their second fight should be the judge-training example for this extreme score...)...a judge's job is to EVALUATE (evaluate what was covered in the first point: DAMAGE, son...not 4 overlapping/subsidiary/often conflicting "criteria")...not just hit one of two 10-9 buttons...it you're REALLY glad you weren't B that round, strongly consider giving B an 8 or in very rare cases, even an 7

before leaving judging, let me demonstrate exactly what i mean by looking at 2 of BigRig Hendrick's most important recent fights, where the official result would have CLEARLY been 100% had my proposed single-criterion been in effect

on the basis of DAMAGE, these are the clear results that should have been registered:

Condit clearly beat Hendricks, despite being on the bottom for much of the fight...demonstrating the ability to take a man down and let him up counts zero in the damage-infliction department

Hendricks clearly beat GSP
__________________

*finally, for chrissakes replace the existing "definition" of a grounded fighter from whatever the fukk the mishmash is...and make it dead simple...hinging on/requiring that to be grounded a fighter must have "at least one knee" flush on the mat...PERIOD...

current bullshit where a STANDING fighter can bend over and touch the mat with his fukking fingertips and become immune from knees blows chunks...you wanna be safe from knees, then you gotta legitimately give up position and really ground yourself by dropping to a knee

**allow

Can't argue your points of rule change. I agree Fit.. There are several more rules that I believe would benifit the sport if changed..

- I would start with accidental cuts or early fight stoppages due to accidental injury going to the judges scoring cards after a round.. Even the Illegal if accidental blow and the fighter can't continue it should then go to the cards...

- Maybe implement some kind of instant replay like in other sports.. Perhaps over ride a refs decision to stop a fight some how if the judgement call was clearly incorrect..

Etc.. etc...

[JoshKnows46]

christ Gomi +300 vs Lauzon? Is Lauzon really gonna blow Gomi out like Jury did? I see this playing out more like Gomi vs Sanchez or Danzig

Should be closer to even money, if I knew if gomi's cardio was good enough to go a hard 3 rounds, I'd take him by decision, Lauzon wouldn't be a guy I'd put in a parlay. Lauzon is tough, and the kid fights for your money, so I don't like betting against him, but I might have to here.

[fitguy67]

i hit Gomi at +210 yesterday...cuz i see it as far far closer to a fun to watch coin-flip that unfolds between what's left of two RockemSockemRobots than the skewed line implies

[JoshKnows46]

i hit Gomi at +210 yesterday...cuz i see it as far far closer to a fun to watch coin-flip that unfolds between what's left of two RockemSockemRobots than the skewed line implies

Agreed, shoulda waited till last minute, joe is a well known name to casuals and is a huge fan favorite, which was a huge part of why the line was so high to start with, won't be surprised to see the line go over +400...it will be a close decision either way, only thing that worries me with gomi is cardio, and fighter iq compared to joe, when it comes to putting the stamp on these close rounds, but gomi by decision is almost at +600, so I'm gonna put something on it. There's alot of toss ups on this card with question marks on both sides that I'm staying away from, but this one your getting paid to play. It's better then risking ur money on either side of the duke fight, miller fight, vilante fight, ramsey fight, or caraway fight, those are all coin flips without the reward worthy of the risk. This is a coin flip your getting 3-6 times your money, same risk as betting on either side of any of those fights.

[Sanity Check]

Gomi is a tough call.

If he's still training in the united states at AKA I might give him a chance.

If he's training in japan, I think most people would expect Lauzon to beat him.

[UncleChael]

I want that monster within Barao to come out and meet KILLASHAW at the door!!!

[nanderson1134]

I wish they would showing scorecards during the fight, to the fighters.

[fitguy67]

^yeah, that's one they could do right away...

the scores posted for ALL to see on the scoreboard...corner, media, and fans...

___________

still gotta get the judging focused on one sensible criterion, in place of the current mishmash of 4 criteria...

and gotta get the judges to stop guessing with 10-9s by allowing/encouraging the "pass" 10-10 when they really aren't sure...

and gotta get them evaluating (not just picking a winner for) each round with increased use of 10-8/even lower when appropriate...

and still gotta repair two badly broken rules:
*the definition of a grounded fighter's gotta be changed to require "at least one knee" PERIOD...ain't on a knee?: be prepared for knees
**DROP THE STUPID BAN ON VERTICAL ELBOWS

[PaperTrail07]

For sure...watch the 12-6....ok going 11-5 lol...and te grounded fighter rule is a known joke...the fighters play fuckn games w that rule...

[JIBBBY]

I don't think Barao has gotten any faster since last fight. I just don't see what changes he could make to counter the speed and technique of TJ in this second fight? That first fight was a clinic..

[fitguy67]

PT gets it......

'nother annoying thing is the trend to interpret ANY TOUCHING of the fence as "grabbing"...there's a huge fukking differerence and you can tell instantly when something "sticks" instead of comes off as it should...there's no need to constantly tell the fighters "don't grab the fence" just because the fight happens to be located at/on/near it...if your bum can be against the fence without grabbing it...so can your hand

they're now starting to get equally over-douchey about "grabbing with the toes"...again, huge freakin' difference from that part of the body touching the fence and using that body part to actually "grab"...and it's instantly visible...

no need to constantly Aunt-Martha the fighters against "grabbing"...emphasize it all you want in the dressing room BEFORE the fight...but when the fight starts...let 'em fight, unless one of the bastids actually intentionally grabs (which you and everyone else will see in an instant via the laws of physics...then blow the whistle and warn/deduct as appropriate)

the other thing i hate now is this constant constant constant "watch the back of the head" while the dude's obviousy NOT anywhere near the back of the head...the part you're not allowed to strike is just a very few square inches...but anytime someone hits anything other than face it's the same goddam 6 words repeated over and over

cover all the rules you're sticky about in technicolor in the dressing room, then shut up till u see an actual violation or clear intention to violate...

don't know why i'm in such a ranty mood last few days...

the BIG ones tho' are the needed judging overhaul, the simple change to the grounded-def'n, and dropping the ban on vertical (aka. "12-to-6") elbows

[GoGoGadget]

12 to 6 elbows from the mount would be brutal. Catching the point of the elbow with full force to the eye socket would not be good.

[mirinquads]

12 to 6 elbows from the mount would be brutal. Catching the point of the elbow with full force to the eye socket would not be good.

Dude.. A 11-5 elbow or whatever does the EXACT same thing. As long as you put a slight angle on it, it's suddenly legal, which is what makes the rule so stupid.

[GoGoGadget]

Dude.. A 11-5 elbow or whatever does the EXACT same thing. As long as you put a slight angle on it, it's suddenly legal, which is what makes the rule so stupid.

Yes the rule is stupid. Why don't fighters use the 11-5 elbow from top position though? seems like it would be a devastating strike and easy to slip through the guard.

My rule would just be no downward elbows leading with the point from top position, everywhere else you can throw any bow.

[JIBBBY]

Bleacher reports complete guide for this event.. Last minute thoughts to consider perhaps with this read...

......

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2528345-dillashaw-vs-barao-a-complete-guide-to-ufc-on-fox-16

[mirinquads]

Yes the rule is stupid. Why don't fighters use the 11-5 elbow from top position though? seems like it would be a devastating strike and easy to slip through the guard.

My rule would just be no downward elbows leading with the point from top position, everywhere else you can throw any bow.

I suppose fear of being penalized, even though everything other than a straight 12-6 is legal.

[TPowell]

guys, Barao comes back re-energized. The first fight with TJ was his 3rd fight in 8 months. He needs time for his body to heal. As evidence, a 3 month turn-around earlier in his career against Jorgy went the full 3 round.

[JIBBBY]

The only fight we as a group haven't discussed yet on any thread is the Ramsey Nijem 9-5 vs Andrew Holbrook 9-0 fight... Anyone have a strong feeling on this match up?

<small>UFC on Fox 16 - Lightweight 3 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - UFC Fight Pass </small>
Sat 7/25		1901 Andrew Holbrook		<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> +120	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o1½ -145
5:00PM		1902 Ramsey Nijem		<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> -140	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u1½ +125

I hate betting against undefeated fighters but I did in this one.. Problem is Andrew Holbrook hasn't fought anyone yet in his 9 wins.. Heck, sherdog doesn't even have a picture of him up yet because he's such an unknown.. All his wins are by submission though, chokes and armbars.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrew-Holbrook-78384

Bleacher Report on this fight - (copy and paste)

Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass
Andrew Holbrook brings his unblemished record into the UFC for a stiff test against Ramsey Nijem. He was having a solid 2014 with back-to-back wins over Justin Edwards and Beneil Dariush but suffered a TKO setback against Carlos Diego Ferreira.
Lightweight is the deepest division in all of MMA, and Holbrook could establish himself as another solid 155-pounder with a win.
Nijem is one of the most underrated lightweights in the UFC. The victory over Dariush is the best on his record, and that is his only signature victory. If he wants to make a move toward the top 15, it will start with Holbrook.
This is a pick 'em fight, and I'll pick Nijem. He has been fighting better competition and performed well enough. This represents too much, too soon for Holbrook.
Prediction: Nijem defeats Holbrook by decision.

======================================== =====================

I'm only betting on the favorite Nijem myself because of his experience, level of competition he has fought to date.. His TD defense is decent..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ramsey-Nijem-36963 Nijem has been armbar'd and neck choked before in 2 of his losses and that worries me a bit..

This fight is a little sketchy to bet on in my mind.. This undefeated Andrew Holbrook fellow is surely a ground guy from this vid below.. This guy Head he is fighting is garbage....

May hedge with the "Holbrook wins by Sub" prop when it comes out...

[TPowell]

Another thing to consider. TJ was certainly MUCH more familiar with Barao before the first fight than vice versa. That idiot Faber got pounded by him twice, so I'm sure TJ got some great info from him before the fight. Somebody posted my thoughts earlier honestly. If Barao looks good at weigh-ins, he would be a steal at 2 to 1

[Sanity Check]

Andrew Holbrook is being mentored to some degree by Chris Lytle and his coach.

He could have decent all around skills.

[mirinquads]

guys, Barao comes back re-energized. The first fight with TJ was his 3rd fight in 8 months. He needs time for his body to heal. As evidence, a 3 month turn-around earlier in his career against Jorgy went the full 3 round.

He also had his teeth fixed, all new and shiny. Maybe that will give him the confidence and self belief to overcome the turbo manlet, TEE JAY? Give me your thoughts Tpowell.

[nanderson1134]

Cant wait to see the main event. I think we are going to get a 5 round war, split decision for tj