UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 (July 25, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

Gonna try to hammer out some prop plays tonight for value.. Will post thoughts on a few later on..



Is it just me or does anyone find value in the Gomi/Lauson 1.5 over at -140? Just thinking this fight goes a round and a half with ease anyways.... -140 is doable odds me tinks on a straight play with this...

Pending7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Takanori Gomi/Joe Lauzon Over 1½ -140*

[Killer_Demo]

Leaning underdog barao

[JoshKnows46]

Gonna try to hammer out some prop plays tonight for value.. Will post thoughts on a few later on..



Is it just me or does anyone find value in the Gomi/Lauson 1.5 over at -140? Just thinking this fight goes a round and a half with ease anyways.... -140 is doable odds me tinks on a straight play with this...

Pending7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Takanori Gomi/Joe Lauzon Over 1½ -140*

love it, see it going over and I got gomi winning by decision, lauzon is a smart fighter, he'll be hesitant of gomi's power in the first round, gomi takes the 1st by way of being the more aggressive fighter, guy that wins the 2nd round, wins the fight. Lauzon takes the 3rd or subs a slowed gomi in the 3rd. I like the value of gomi by desision. Lauzon pushes the pace of the fight in the 2nd and 3rd, depends on gomi's cardio if he wins or not.

[JIBBBY]

love it, see it going over and I got gomi winning by decision, lauzon is a smart fighter, he'll be hesitant of gomi's power in the first round, gomi takes the 1st by way of being the more aggressive fighter, guy that wins the 2nd round, wins the fight. Lauzon takes the 3rd or subs a slowed gomi in the 3rd. I like the value of gomi by desision. Lauzon pushes the pace of the fight in the 2nd and 3rd, depends on gomi's cardio if he wins or not.

Yep Josh...

IDK about Gomi winning the fight though but I certainly think he won't get KO'd in the first round and half by Joe when he still isn't gassed out yet. Joe doesn't really have heavy hands..

Joe is also a tough out early on, durable enough that he should make it thru 1.5 rounds himself.. Joe should fight long and Gomi probably keeps the fight standing.. Becomes a point contest thru the first 2 rounds if my best guess until someone gets tired, lazy and or taken down..

[JoshKnows46]

Yep Josh...

IDK about Gomi winning the fight though but I certainly think he won't get KO'd in the first round and half by Joe when he still isn't gassed out yet. Joe doesn't really have heavy hands..

Joe is also a tough out early on, durable enough that he should make it thru 1.5 rounds himself.. Joe should fight long and Gomi probably keeps the fight standing.. Becomes a point contest thru the first 2 rounds if my best guess until someone gets tired, lazy and or taken down..

you sure don't have to worry about joe Ko/Tko gomi, he only has one Tko lose in his 45 fights and that was to Myles jury. Joe is more of a volume puncher, and he can't stay in the pocket with gomi, he doesn't have the chin of jury, he'll need to be very cautious with his attacks, even more so early on. His best route to win is by sub late in the fight.

[GoGoGadget]

If you are betting Barao you might as well take him inside the distance.

I see this as TJs fight again, he has so many advantages over Barao. His quickness and lateral movement make Barao's kicks totally ineffective, TJ out kicked him. Barao likes to move forward and walk his opponent down. TJ won't let that happen, he is constantly in and out side to side changing stances and angles. I was really impressed with the variety of strikes he used in their first fight.

Barao's style looked the exact same VS Gagnon. Gagnon had some success in the fight but he wasn't moving like TJ would, Gagnon wasn't moving laterally he was in and out in front of Barao where Barao is comfortable. Barao has been successful with his style for so long he isn't going to be able to all of a sudden totally reinvent himself.

Barao has serious power and he could land a fight ending or changing shot, but if he doesn't TJ will dance around him and outpoint him and possibly finish him again. If it goes the distance TJ wins easy. His angles, quickness, movement, cardio and variety of strikes coming from all over will be the difference again.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Barao by KO is the most likely pathway to victory if he does win I think....Can't see him winning a decision against the quicker champ with the better cardio, and I don't see him submitting the wrestler TJ off his back either.. Probably cracks TJ on the chin with a lucky haymaker punch or lands a well timed knee if he does win the fight.. If Barao gets TJ hurt he'd probably rather pound him out on the ground rather then go for a sub win also..

So if you're on Barao consider this prop for better value.. I would if I were betting on him but I'm not.. May consider a little insurance with this.. Need to work out the numbers if I do..

1037 Barao wins by TKO/KO <input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+455

[GoGoGadget]

That stoppage was hilarious, no strikes were getting through at all. Stoppage due to strikes to the arm.

[JIBBBY]

Some props to consider -

- If you are on Miesha Tate this prop might work.. Both of these girls are durable and love to go the distance.. Even odds almost with this prop as opposed to the straight -210 Miesha play...

1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_33" name="radiox" type="radio">-105

- Miller by submission is a gamble but he could realistically win that way with his ground.. Fight probably goes the distance. This prop is +400 though..

1531 Miller wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_114" name="radiox" type="radio">+400

- Ben Saunders wins by KO most likely if he is to win.. Was hoping for more value though with this prop.. Straight play on Ben is even odds now..

1633 Saunders wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_133" name="radiox" type="radio">+220

For value but long shots I saw these. This is all small betting stuff below in my mind...

1033 Dillashaw wins in round 5

<input id="radiox" value="M1_15" name="radiox" type="radio">+1600 (Last fight he won in round 5)

1133 Tate wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_44" name="radiox" type="radio">+926 (She gave Rhonda Rousey fits standing. Ground pound out maybe, fight probably goes the distane though)

1307 Gomi wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_67" name="radiox" type="radio">+600 (fireball sticks and moves and wins 2 rounds to 1)

1327 Gomi wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_77" name="radiox" type="radio">+1375 (Crazy long shot, he rocks Lauson and takes the neck on the ground)

1427 Lawlor wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_94" name="radiox" type="radio">+900 (Folds standing and gives up the neck on the ground, not likey to land though)

1529 Castillo wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_113" name="radiox" type="radio">+585 (Could land something standing as that is his strength so it's always a possiblity)

1627 Robertson wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_130" name="radiox" type="radio">+755 (get's lucky and sinks something in while rolling)

1729 Caraway wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_149" name="radiox" type="radio">+786 (lucky punch lands or pound out on the ground)

1829 Krause wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_167" name="radiox" type="radio">+600 (lands on Cruickshank period)

1927 Holbrook wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_184" name="radiox" type="radio">+285 (Most likely way for him to win if he does, all of his wins are by submission)

2031 Duke wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_205" name="radiox" type="radio">+760 (Locks in a sub of sub kind late)

2129 Steele wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_221" name="radiox" type="radio">+710 (The brother gets lucky and lands a haymaker)

[fitguy67]

comparing the prices of the Lauzon/Gomi (-365/+305) and Cummings/Steele(-320/+260)

you'd think that the former was surer to be the squash match with fewer reasonable paths to a dog-W than the latter

but it sure as hell seems that Cummings is the more likely to stomp/Steele less likely to surprise...and thus the better parlay fodder if you're in the market for some of that
_________
when you got two flambouyant guys like Lauzon/Gomi with lots of mileage (and all that that implies..."flashes of past brilliance" randomly toggling with the tendency to "instantly age" etc.) the "who knows WTF'll happen" index rises...

so no scenario in mind at all for this one...just the spidey sense that it's closer to a coin-flip (clearly weighted for Lauzon...but by quite a bet less than indicated by these odds)...the standard "dog or pass" situation...

[JoshKnows46]

Some props to consider -

- If you are on Miesha Tate this prop might work.. Both of these girls are durable and love to go the distance.. Even odds almost with this prop as opposed to the straight -210 Miesha play...

1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_33" name="radiox" type="radio">-105

- Miller by submission is a gamble but he could realistically win that way with his ground.. Fight probably goes the distance. This prop is +400 though..

1531 Miller wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_114" name="radiox" type="radio">+400

- Ben Saunders wins by KO most likely if he is to win.. Was hoping for more value though with this prop.. Straight play on Ben is even odds now..

1633 Saunders wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_133" name="radiox" type="radio">+220

For value but long shots I saw these. This is all small betting stuff below in my mind...

1033 Dillashaw wins in round 5

<input id="radiox" value="M1_15" name="radiox" type="radio">+1600 (Last fight he won in round 5)

1127 Eye wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_41" name="radiox" type="radio">+1405 (She does have one submission win. lol)

1133 Tate wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_44" name="radiox" type="radio">+926 (She gave Rhonda Rousey fits standing. Ground out)

1231 Barboza wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_61" name="radiox" type="radio">+854 (He does have 1 sub win and is Brazilian purple belt.. lol)

1307 Gomi wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_67" name="radiox" type="radio">+600 (fireball sticks and moves and wins 2 rounds to 1)

1327 Gomi wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_77" name="radiox" type="radio">+1375 (Crazy long shot, he rocks Lauson and takes the neck on the ground)

1427 Lawlor wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_94" name="radiox" type="radio">+900 (Folds standing and gives up the neck on the ground)

1529 Castillo wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_113" name="radiox" type="radio">+585 (Could land something standing as that is his strength so it's always a possiblity)

1627 Robertson wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_130" name="radiox" type="radio">+755 (get's lucky and sinks something in while rolling)

1729 Caraway wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_149" name="radiox" type="radio">+786 (lucky punch lands or pound out on the ground)

1827 Krause wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_166" name="radiox" type="radio">+870 (Not sure how this could happen)

1927 Holbrook wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_184" name="radiox" type="radio">+285 (Most likely way for him to win if he does, all of his wins are by submission)

2033 Duke wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_205" name="radiox" type="radio">+940 (Pound out on the ground)

2129 Steele wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_221" name="radiox" type="radio">+710 (The brother gets lucky and lands a haymaker)

Ben could also win by sub, he has a very active guard, smarter play is to bet him inside the distance, instead of the Ko prob.

[JoshKnows46]

comparing the prices of the Lauzon/Gomi (-365/+305) and Cummings/Steele(-320/+260)

you'd think that the former was surer to be the squash match with fewer reasonable paths to a dog-W than the latter

but it sure as hell seems that Cummings is the more likely to stomp/Steele less likely to surprise...and thus the better parlay fodder if you're in the market for some of that
_________
when you got two flambouyant guys like Lauzon/Gomi with lots of mileage (and all that that implies..."flashes of past brilliance" randomly toggling with the tendency to "instantly age" etc.) the "who knows WTF'll happen" index rises...

so no scenario in mind at all for this one...just the spidey sense that it's closer to a coin-flip (clearly weighted for Lauzon...but by quite a bet less than indicated by these odds)...the standard "dog or pass" situation...

both dogs have equal bite, lauzon is higher because his name is more well known. Neither of these fights will be a whip out, both close fights that go to the judges most likely. I'm on both dogs

[JIBBBY]

That stoppage was hilarious, no strikes were getting through at all. Stoppage due to strikes to the arm.

Gotta love Herb Dean...

He's got his own website if ya wanna get a good laugh..http://herbdean.com/

Found himself a good looking white woman as it seems.. Wonder what his pay is now for working as basically the head ref in the UFC? That man has made some bad calls in the past but I guess no one is perfect..

[JIBBBY]

Ben could also win by sub, he has a very active guard, smarter play is to bet him inside the distance, instead of the Ko prob.

True I thought about that but most of Bens wins are coming by way of KO lately as he does have 9 wins by Ko and only 6 wins by submission on his record.. Kenny Roberson has been Ko'd before and never sub'd out as a pro also. Ben has a big height and reach advantage going in as well if he can keep the fight standing.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Saunders-10339

Like I said I don't like the value on the KO prop and probably shouldn't have even posted it up now that I think about it.. Thanks for check Josh... My bad..

If anything Kenny Roberson has a chance at a submission win.. 9 wins by way of submission in his 15 pro fight wins.. That's why I mentioned him in my small prop plays above as a possibility..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kenny-Robertson-31978

1627 Robertson wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_130" size="4"> +755

[UncleChael]

Some props to consider -

1827 Krause wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_166" name="radiox" type="radio">+870 (Not sure how this could happen)

When Cruickshank gets hit in that body, gasses shoots for a takedown and gets triangle choked by THE JAMES KRAUSE!

[JIBBBY]

I edited post #149 and changed up a few my prop ideas after closer review.. Just wanted to clear that up as i reconsidered the likely fight out comes as being more important then the value of the prop in some of them.....

Like to keep my posts on the up and up win or lose... No trickery with Jibs...

[UncleChael]

I'll put my neck out on the line and tell you Edson is gonna win and it's a pick-em.

I lied again.

[Killer_Demo]

My 2 plays for this card,

Barao +185, 2-units to win 3.7-units
Tate -195, 1.95 units to win 1-unit

[JIBBBY]

This really is a tough card to try and pick winners, like many mentioned in this thread alot of these fights are basically coin tosses.. Mostly all the middle fights on this card really could go one way or the other...

This should be a wild ride anyways trying to bet this card from top to bottom.. I will try!!! The people that are betting one or two fights only might be the smart ones, like Killer Demo above..
GL to all anyways...



Weigh ins coming up - Curious to see what Barao looks like, if he can even make weight? If he's sloppy looking or ripped..

[Sanity Check]

Some things I've noticed.

#1 Ben Saunders might have zero take down defense. He's also been dominated by wrestlers in the past.

#2 Andrew Holbrook is a golden gloves amateur boxer in addition to his great wrestling and sub game.

#3 Jessica Eye only has 1 real loss on her record. A lot of people thought she deserved the decision win over Alexis Davis.

[JoshKnows46]

Some things I've noticed.

#1 Ben Saunders might have zero take down defense. He's also been dominated by wrestlers in the past.

#2 Andrew Holbrook is a golden gloves amateur boxer in addition to his great wrestling and sub game.

#3 Jessica Eye only has 1 real loss on her record. A lot of people thought she deserved the decision win over Alexis Davis.

ben saunders will be taken down in this fight, he'll also get the finish inside the distance by sub or ko, you can't just not bet a fighter becuase he can get taken down when there is drastic skill advantages and your getting nearly even money, i knew cain could takedown werdum, i knew mendes would take down mcgregor, saunders is worlds better on the feet and better on the ground. your getting great odds becuase of saunders lack of takedown defense, if he had even decent takedown defense the odds would be stupid high for this fight, bet him inside the distance to get him at Plus money.

andrew holbrook should win, but its on 2 weeks notice, was hoping for +200 or round abouts, but at these odds, its a pass for me.

Look at jessica eyes comp she's faced, its easy to look good standing, her takedown defense is horrible though, and she doesn't have the striking power to hurt tate in any shape or form, she'll lose a decision at best, but more likely she'll be submitted before the final bell rings, there isnt any advantage she holds over tate, none, this is a steal at -200. Tate will batter her with punches on the feet, and bewilder with sub attempts on the ground, in a way it is similar to the lietes/bisping fight on the feet, but Tate has taken down great wrestlers before and eye has zero takedown defense, Tate is active on the ground. This is a big jump up in comp for eye, and a stylistic mismatch.

[Sanity Check]

ben saunders will be taken down in this fight, he'll also get the finish inside the distance by sub or ko, you can't just not bet a fighter becuase he can get taken down when there is drastic skill advantages and your getting nearly even money, i knew cain could takedown werdum, i knew mendes would take down mcgregor, saunders is worlds better on the feet and better on the ground. your getting great odds becuase of saunders lack of takedown defense, if he had even decent takedown defense the odds would be stupid high for this fight, bet him inside the distance to get him at Plus money.

andrew holbrook should win, but its on 2 weeks notice, was hoping for +200 or round abouts, but at these odds, its a pass for me.

Look at jessica eyes comp she's faced, its easy to look good standing, her takedown defense is horrible though, and she doesn't have the striking power to hurt tate in any shape or form, she'll lose a decision at best, but more likely she'll be submitted before the final bell rings, there isnt any advantage she holds over tate, none, this is a steal at -200. Tate will batter her with punches on the feet, and bewilder with sub attempts on the ground, in a way is similar to the lietes/bisping fight on the feet, but Tate has taken down great wrestlers before and eye has zero takedown defense, Tate is active on the ground. This is a big jump up in comp for eye, and stylistic mismatch.

Its one thing for Ben Saunders to submit someone like Chris Heatherly who has been finished inside the first round of every UFC fight they ever had. Its another thing for Ben Saunders to submit a veteran like Kenny Robertson. As long as Robertson doesn't make a fundamental mistake, he isn't likely to be subbed from the bottom. Being on the bottom and working for a submission could also decrease Saunder's KO power and end his chances for a finish via strikes. Saunders could gas out his arms and legs trying for triangles and other subs. Also remember, Saunders didn't submit Joe Riggs. Joe Riggs injured his neck slamming Saunders, that finish was more unintentionally self inflicted than anything.

I don't remember much about Jessica Eye's takedown defense. Eye has to know that Miesha's only chance to win is taking it to the ground. She's probably spent the last 3 months working on her takedown defense and footwork to ensure Miesha never gets close enough to reach for a takedown, and that if she does get the clinch that she doesn't get Eye down. When Eye throws punches, it looks to me as if she moves her hips and is always prepared to stuff the takedown. I think Eye has looked more impressive than Miesha Tate, recently. Miesha had a lackluster win over Rin Nakai. And her win over Sara McMann was just Tate being lucky that McMann had absolutely nothing off her back and Tate got lucky with reversing position on a takedown. Tate moved from Team Alpha Male and is training at XTreme Couture in Vegas. She never seems to stay in one place long enough to actually learn something and is constantly jumping around. So yeah, I have Jessica Eye via decision. Every decent striker Miesha Tate has fought rocked her badly. Cat Zingano did it. Julie Kedzie did it. Sara McMann did it. Maybe Jessica Eye will take it one step further and get the finish.

[JoshKnows46]

This really is a tough card to try and pick winners, like many mentioned in this thread alot of these fights are basically coin tosses.. Mostly all the middle fights on this card really could go one way or the other...

This should be a wild ride anyways trying to bet this card from top to bottom.. I will try!!! The people that are betting one or two fights only might be the smart ones, like Killer Demo above..
GL to all anyways...



Weigh ins coming up - Curious to see what Barao looks like, if he can even make weight? If he's sloppy looking or ripped..

It truly doesn't matter what barao looks like at the weigh ins, he has no means to win this fight, fight will be contested on the feet again, and he's completely outmatched. it will be a continuation of the last fight. what do the barao bettors see happening diffrently, and why?

[JIBBBY]

It truly doesn't matter what barao looks like at the weigh ins, he has no means to win this fight, fight will be contested on the feet again, and he's completely outmatched.

I agree Joshster with him being outmatched, I was thinking more in terms of how long the fight might last based off his looks more then anything else.. If Barao looks sloppy and struggles to make weight he probably gets smoked in this fight early on and it goes under.. If he's in great shape, ripped and makes the weight easily then maybe he could go the distance and then the over hits.....

Cardio gage more or less is what I'm trying to say.....

[Killer_Demo]

This really is a tough card to try and pick winners, like many mentioned in this thread alot of these fights are basically coin tosses.. Mostly all the middle fights on this card really could go one way or the other...

This should be a wild ride anyways trying to bet this card from top to bottom.. I will try!!! The people that are betting one or two fights only might be the smart ones, like Killer Demo above..
GL to all anyways...



Weigh ins coming up - Curious to see what Barao looks like, if he can even make weight? If he's sloppy looking or ripped..

Good luck Jibbby

[JoshKnows46]

Its one thing for Ben Saunders to submit someone like Chris Heatherly who has been finished inside the first round of every UFC fight they ever had. Its another thing for Ben Saunders to submit a veteran like Kenny Robertson. As long as Robertson doesn't make a fundamental mistake, he isn't likely to be subbed from the bottom. Being on the bottom and working for a submission could also decrease Saunder's KO power and end his chances for a finish via strikes. Saunders could gas out his arms and legs trying for triangles and other subs. Also remember, Saunders didn't submit Joe Riggs. Joe Riggs injured his neck slamming Saunders, that finish was more unintentionally self inflicted than anything.

I don't remember much about Jessica Eye's takedown defense. Eye has to know that Miesha's only chance to win is taking it to the ground. She's probably spent the last 3 months working on her takedown defense and footwork to ensure Miesha never gets close enough to reach for a takedown, and that if she does get the clinch that she doesn't get Eye down. When Eye throws punches, it looks to me as if she moves her hips and is always prepared to stuff the takedown. I think Eye has looked more impressive than Miesha Tate, recently. Miesha had a lackluster win over Rin Nakai. And her win over Sara McMann was just Tate being lucky that McMann had absolutely nothing off her back and Tate got lucky with reversing position on a takedown. Tate moved from Team Alpha Male and is training at XTreme Couture in Vegas. She never seems to stay in one place long enough to actually learn something and is constantly jumping around. So yeah, I have Jessica Eye via decision. Every decent striker Miesha Tate has fought rocked her badly. Cat Zingano did it. Julie Kedzie did it. Sara McMann did it. Maybe Jessica Eye will take it one step further and get the finish.

eye has been taken down 77% of the time since entering the ufc, and she hasn't even fought anyone yet know for wrestling, miesha just dominated a ex Olympic wrestler, and held her own with ronda grappling as well, its wishful thinking at best to think eyes takedown defense has improved that much in only 3 months, she doesn't try to get back to her feet once takendown either or make any attempts at submissions, she's basically fukkeed as soon as this hits the mat, just like mcmann and it will without a doubt hit the mat. i also don't believe she holds a advantage on the feet either, this will be all tate, as long as it lasts.

Good points on saunders. we'll see, he's known fr highlight reel Knockouts, i'm comfortable with my money on him, kid fights for your money the whole way, and every round starts on the feet... killa b said he's looking to take his head highlander style, and i believe him

[JoshKnows46]

Sanity check, the over 2.5 rounds is at +100, might be a better play then putting your money on Robertson. Protect your self from the judges.

[Killer_Demo]

Barao barely made weight

[GoGoGadget]

Barao barely made weight

He looked good at weigh ins IMO and kept his weight in check this time around.

[JIBBBY]

He looked good at weigh ins IMO and kept his weight in check this time around.

Barao did make the weight and looked good at weigh ins.. TJ might have to earn this one now....

[GoBlue77]

worst predictions ever

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/7/24/9027521/ufc-on-fox-16-predictions-preview-analysis-dillashaw-barao-chicago-mma

[GoBlue77]

eye has been taken down 77% of the time since entering the ufc, and she hasn't even fought anyone yet know for wrestling, miesha just dominated a ex Olympic wrestler, and held her own with ronda grappling as well, its wishful thinking at best to think eyes takedown defense has improved that much in only 3 months, she doesn't try to get back to her feet once takendown either or make any attempts at submissions, she's basically fukkeed as soon as this hits the mat, just like mcmann and it will without a doubt hit the mat. i also don't believe she holds a advantage on the feet either, this will be all tate, as long as it lasts.

Good points on saunders. we'll see, he's known fr highlight reel Knockouts, i'm comfortable with my money on him, kid fights for your money the whole way, and every round starts on the feet... killa b said he's looking to take his head highlander style, and i believe him

sorry kiss your Tater money goodbye

[GoGoGadget]

worst predictions ever
http://www.mmamania.com/2015/7/24/90...ao-chicago-mma

I don't get their Barao by decision, that has to be one of the least likely outcomes IMO. TJ's output is so high, if Barao wins it will be by stoppage.

[Sanity Check]

eye has been taken down 77% of the time since entering the ufc, and she hasn't even fought anyone yet know for wrestling, miesha just dominated a ex Olympic wrestler, and held her own with ronda grappling as well, its wishful thinking at best to think eyes takedown defense has improved that much in only 3 months, she doesn't try to get back to her feet once takendown either or make any attempts at submissions, she's basically fukkeed as soon as this hits the mat, just like mcmann and it will without a doubt hit the mat. i also don't believe she holds a advantage on the feet either, this will be all tate, as long as it lasts.

Good points on saunders. we'll see, he's known fr highlight reel Knockouts, i'm comfortable with my money on him, kid fights for your money the whole way, and every round starts on the feet... killa b said he's looking to take his head highlander style, and i believe him

My thing about Jessica Eye is, if she's been taken down 77% of the time in the UFC. How is it that she hasn't lost a fight in 4 years(barring the controversial Alexis Davis decision)? That's what I don't get.

I think Sara McMann is similar to Brock Lesnar in that she really doesn't like getting punched in the face. McMann had Miesha almost finished in the 1st round. Once Miesha started to land punches and kicks, McMann freaked out and didn't know how to deal with it. Finally in the 3rd round Miesha got lucky reversing a takedown and McMann had no clue how to fight off her back. Miesha layed and prayed to a decision win. I think it was more lack of preparation on the part of McMann than it was Miesha being good at what she does.

It looks like Jessica Eye has a win over Carina Damm who is Rodrigo Damm's sister. Carina Damm might be a black belt in brazilian jiu jitsu if not a world champion. This might not be the first time Jessica Eye fights a high level wrestler/grappler.

Well, that's cool man. At least no matter who wins those fights someone here will benefit either way.

Sanity check, the over 2.5 rounds is at +100, might be a better play then putting your money on Robertson. Protect your self from the judges.

Thx for the tip bro.

I don't get their Barao by decision, that has to be one of the least likely outcomes IMO. TJ's output is so high, if Barao wins it will be by stoppage.

Barao's cardio isn't as good as TJ's.

If Barao wins it could be by pacing himself, throwing 10 kicks and 10 punches every round, and winning on points. Similar to what Thales Leites did against Michael Bisping on the last UFC card.

[fitguy67]

lotta really good bet-applicable backnforth in this thread

i just placed a two-dog flier (duke+145*felder+110) @ +415 that just "feels" like it has way better than the 20% chance of cashing that i'm paying for here