UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum (June 13, 2015)

[TheCalculator]

I'm big on Werdum. 3 units.

BOOOOOOOOOOOoooommm!!

[mirinquads]

[fitguy67]

My 5 pre-event plays, prices as of execution (all yesterday, except took Werdum weeks back, mid-May...would've been better if i had waited)

*rodriguez+187

*alvarez +150

*pendred +137

*werdum +400

everything to win 1u, except werdum to win 4u

*(perez-173 x collard -251)>>+120 (also played to win 1u)
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overall risking 3.765u in pursuit of 8u

just added

Hill +240 (SIA, also here at betpoints-book) to win a unit: risking 0.417u to win 1u
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overall: 6 wagers risking 4.182u in pursuit of 9u

4-2, +5.749u (vs. 4.182u risked/9u targeted)

*rodriguez+187>>>>>> +1

*alvarez +150>>>>>>> +1

*pendred +137>>>>>> +1

*werdum +400 (x4)>>> +4

*(perez-173 x collard -251)>>+120>>>>> -0.834

*Hill +240>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -0.417

[fitguy67]

can't fool mother nature (ie. laws of bio-physics helpful to understand counter-to-odds "surprise" results)

reach is real (eg. perez v. williams),

altitude is real, as it affects cardio, therefore training for a longer period directly b4 extreme-altitude fight is important (FW v. Cain)
____________
of course, these factors shift probabilities (NOT certainties) in the obvious direction...but we should never totally ignore these things if they run counter to our leaning...so, when you find yourself saying "yeah, but that won't matter..." a lot, be careful about putting too much money on where your mouth is

eg. Tito v. Shlemenko (guy with big size adv won)

eg. Jones v. DC (guy with huge reach adv won)

BUT Thatch v. Bendo (guy with big reach adv dramatically LOST here with much crow eaten as a result...as "experience in championship-length fights" trumped it...a factor that also appeared crucial in the recent DC vs. AJ fight)

[shabang]

Shut usp u pedo pic. hes legit.

shut up niga .. quit jockin' the pick bro

[Sykes]

shut up pedo.

[mirinquads]

werdum is slow as shit, his footwork is bad, his cardio is worse, you can't hit what you can't catch. and why the fk would cain even bother going into werdum's guard? he'll be looking to ''backpack'' him from side, working singles, mauling him, constant pressure, those lovely uppercut's he likes to throw when he's riding from side.

Where you at, Mr roll guy?



You're great at making me rolling on the floor laughing for sure.

Amateur.

[Thor4140]

Where you at, Mr roll guy?



You're great at making me rolling on the floor laughing for sure.

Amateur.

u think he is gonna eat some humble pie Miri or just come back with more insults on another fight coming up?

[Thor4140]

by the way i put a small wager on Melendez. He lost the fight. Those who think he won are just sore about their bets. He did absolutely nothing round two and three but show how bad of shape he is in and maybe ought to talk to NIck his buddie on how to be in shape. Pathetic performance after round one. I don't know who enjoys these high altitude fights. Makes most of them boring. And enuf of this pound for pound nonsense. I never thought Cain was this special to be called this. John Jones is pound for pound and nobody is a close 2nd.

Correction Weidman is a close second

[JIBBBY]

Congrats Werdum betters...

That was a big dog hit right there in the main event.. Reason to celebrate fooo sure!!!..


The fight didn't go the distance though which was the safe play and that was about the only thing I called right in that fight.... I'm still shocked with the final result..

Who would have thought Werdum had a better gas tank then Cain? Cain did win most of the 1st round early on, but he punched himself out, had the adrenaline dump and blew his wad. Cain never recovered and caught his wind after the 1st.. He looked drunk in the cage in the end..

The saying goes, a tired fighter is a beaten fighter..

[UncleChael]

Cain got played and so did I.

[JoshKnows46]

Congrats Werdum betters...

That was a big dog hit right there in the main event.. Reason to celebrate fooo sure!!!..


The fight didn't go the distance though which was the safe play and that was about the only thing I called right in that fight.... I'm still shocked with the final result..

Who would have thought Werdum had a better gas tank then Cain? Cain did win most of the 1st round early on, but he punched himself out, had the adrenaline dump and blew his wade. Cain never recovered and caught his wind after the 1st.. He looked drunk in the cage in the end..

The saying goes, a tired fighter is a beaten fighter..

Was surprising to see him get tired, i hoped for it, and thought it could happen but didnt expect it to happen, cus we never seen it happen before... but the signs were there that werdum could have the better gas tank, high altitude, and werdum had been living there for months, werdum's last fight against brown where it looked like he could fight a 5 round fight after the fight was over, and cain with a long layoff of over a year and a half...after watching this fight, it would seem his head movement and footwork greatly diminish after a long layoff, why jds caught him as well, i don't by into the injury excuses after the fight.

with that said, give cain one fight, then a rematch, and give me even odds or maybe even better if we are lucky, under perfect conditions i feel he can beat werdum 60% of to time, 6 out of 10 fights, Even though i'm a bigger fan of werdums, I'd take cain at even odds, or underdog odds...this is the clear number 1 and 2 guys in the division, they will only be able to beat each other.

[Bumdeal]

Even after a comprehensive beatdown of Cain, Werdum can't get any respect. This is similar reaction to when A Silva went down

[brooks85]

I look forward to the rematch but for now I'm just hoping we see cain back in the cage within a reasonable amount of time.

[JIBBBY]

I think the altitude played a big part in this event going so wrong for the mma betting masses and for MMA logic in general..

Must factor in the H20 bottles next high altitude event for sure!!!!.. I didn't take that seriously and you could clearly see some of the big name fighters gassing out when normally they don't...

Live and learn to earn....

Or am I just crying over spilt milk?

[Killer_Demo]

I think the altitude played a big part in this event going so wrong for the mma betting masses and for MMA logic in general..

Must factor in the H20 bottles next high altitude event for sure!!!!.. I didn't take that seriously and you could clearly see some of the big name fighters gassing out when normally they don't...

Live and learn to earn....

Or am I just crying over spilt milk?

Dana said 6 fighters puked backstage, a record number

[UncleChael]

Cain Velasquez will be back boys!!
I promise.

[mirinquads]

u think he is gonna eat some humble pie Miri or just come back with more insults on another fight coming up?

Probably gonna be ranting about Aldo's elite ground game in a couple of weeks, when he hopes people forgot about his last hilarious failure.

Fuken hell, almost starting to lean Mcgregor because of this clown.

[fitguy67]

Probably gonna be ranting about Aldo's elite ground game in a couple of weeks, when he hopes people forgot about his last hilarious failure.

Fuken hell, almost starting to lean Mcgregor because of this clown.

the guy also laid out very emphatic dogmatic cases for the virtual zero-percent chances for RDA vs. Pettis and for Joana vs. Esparza...then, as you observed, evaporates with not a hint of crow-eating until the next square-assed beat-down he over-sells...

he actually makes good conventional-wisdom-on-steroids points but ridicules anyone suggesting there may be any holes in his air-tight view that might warrant a stab on the other side...(i got pulled off RDA by this guy's convincing insistence that a one-way Pettis-stomp was inevitable...but luckily held firm on backing JJ against Esparza)

I'm big on free speech...and I really like reading EVERYyone's takes on fights, but to play the game properly we all gotta admit to "being wrong" (which is simply incorrectly "weighting" factors when you get right down to it...eg/ Thatch guys over-emphasized the huge reach advantage relative to the equally-huge "deep water" disadvantage) as the payment for our right to to take bows when "being right"...cuz it's the only way we keep from repeating the same "mistake" (eg. i learned from that Thatch loss to consider DC's recently-acquired "deep water" advantage sufficient to overcome Rumble's considerable physical advantages..."eating crow" over Thatch really helped to re-inforce that lesson and add it to my thought-game when considering other fights)

eating a little humble pie when called for will buy you forum-cred and at the same time step up your game cuz the remembrance of the taste'll be your friend the next time a fight comes up with elements in any way reminscent of that bet you were so sure about that ultimately bit you in the ass

[fitguy67]

^^nvm, DPD (duplicate-post dyslexia) strikes again^^