UFC 184: Rousey Vs Zingano (February 28, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano (for women's bantamweight title)
Holly Holm vs. Raquel Pennington
Jake Ellenberger vs. Josh Koscheck
Alan Jouban vs. Richard Walsh
Tony Ferguson vs. Yancy Medeiros

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Roan Carneiro vs. Mark Munoz
Roman Salazar vs. Norifumi Yamamoto
Dhiego Lima vs. Tim Means
Derrick Lewis vs. Ruan Potts

UFC Fight Pass, 7 p.m. ET
James Krause vs. Valmir Lazaro
Masio Fullen vs. Alexander Torres

[JIBBBY]

Rousey, Holm and Ellenberger are all locks.. The odds will reflect this unfortunately..

[fitguy67]

watch Zingano v. Tate

watch Rousey v. Tate, #2

honesly now, does it REALLY look like either one of the two headlining fighters
*has less than a 12% chance of beating the other, or alternately stated:
*doesn't even belong in the same cage with the other

I submit a solid "no" answer to both versions of this same question...

so, if you're looking for a cornerstone parlay leg (something i'd heavily discourage in general...but IF you are so inclined to beef up the payouts of several different parlays with a play you consider more of an investment than a proposition)...i'd suggest you disqualify Rousey as that sort of "squash play"

these odds would be appropriate for a Jones v. Hamill rematch...not for a battle between the only two broads in recent memory that noticeably out-toughed the very tough Tate...

don't get me wrong. Rousey deserves to be the favorite...but not nearly as big a favorite...Zingano is a much more live dog than the odds indicate...I'd gladly pay this sort of price for Rousey in a rematch with Caramouche...but NOT against an undefeated uber-tough broad like Zingano

so why not have some fun and plunk down a splash on 8-to-1 payout Zinger (perhaps in addition to ONE Rousey-containing parlay and/or a MOV-prop) and enjoy the fight with a combined lottery ticket/cheap hedge for any Rousey positions you may have/"option for future bragging rights" on being one of the few probability-savvy enough to actually buy a Zingano ticket (and not one of the many who just "thought about" it)...to be displayed prominently along with your Newton over Mo#1/Dillashaw over Barao/Broooks over Chandler tickets

[agendaman]

bragging rights are for losers real winners stay silent

[Ron_Paul_2012]

bragging rights are for losers real winners stay silent

Is that you Sider?

[fitguy67]

reading comprehension (including the recognition of something known as an "expression"...particularly when it's enclosed in quotation marks) is obviously going out of style...much more fun, i suppose, to fly off the handle and mindlessly type out a cfiche from the Oprah Network...

to clarify: "bragging rights" <>bragging...it is the "right" or the ability to correctly say "i told you so", should you choose to...not the saying of it

simply put, "rights" to do/say anything need not be exercised, so the person with clear "bragging rights" may easily be the quietest one in the room

______________

Ron, a few days ago, someone claiming to be Sideloaded did appear over "here", with a freshly-named account ("phelios" or similar)...and attempted (apparently successfully) to get hooked up to "there"...so, one more for the fan-club/think-tank/bitching-brigade

[Rubber Guard]

cat sucks and will get murked just like the rest.

womens mma sucks. If they arent one dimensional then they are zero dimensioal

[Iamcloud]

watch Zingano v. Tate

watch Rousey v. Tate, #2

Rousey was playing with Tate in that fight. She could have finished her under 1 min if she wanted to. She wanted to beat Tate up a bit because of all the ultimate fighter house drama but her striking sucked back then.

She has been 100% focusing on her striking lately(last 2 fights end by TKO,KO) and considering how explosive she is and how slow Zingano start she will knock her out in the first. I will bet on Rousey by KO (3.2). Zingano has heart but we have seen her rocked before. Rousey won't let her recover.

Rousey is just world class it doesn't matter what she decides to focus on she will become the best at it.

[mirinquads]

She knocks out boxing champions on the reg i hear.

[fitguy67]

Rousey was playing with Tate in that fight. She could have finished her under 1 min if she wanted to. She wanted to beat Tate up a bit because of all the ultimate fighter house drama but her striking sucked back then.

She has been 100% focusing on her striking lately(last 2 fights end by TKO,KO) and considering how explosive she is and how slow Zingano start she will knock her out in the first. I will bet on Rousey by KO (3.2). Zingano has heart but we have seen her rocked before. Rousey won't let her recover.

Rousey is just world class it doesn't matter what she decides to focus on she will become the best at it.

spot on there...Cat has great cardio...but she just didn't get the "8-9-10" speed settings...explains why she can (and did vs. Tate and especially Nunes) look like crap early in fights...to date, her chin/mental-toughness have gotten her through to the deeper water, where and when her opponents lose those upper speed-settings and her "7" is plenty explosive enough

good observation...never a good game plan to RELY on "weathering the initial storm"...I still think there's way too much blind parlay-buying here, treating this as another Rousey vs doesn't-matter....making Zingano's "slim" seem like "none"...giving bettors a cheap 0.125u shot at a unit...if this were "vs Caramouche#2" the odds would look much the same but it would't be "worth a shot" at all...it'd be a donation to the book...here, vs. Zingano, THIS low-price ticket IS worth a shot

is THIS shot likely to win? hell no...but i set its small chance to win (based on "weathering the early explosiveness"...and taking it from there...) at considerably higher than the tiny % (here 11.11% at 5d's +800) that the price says it needs to be to make buying tickets like this (including Dillashaw v Barao, Brooks v Chandler, and Newton v Mo...AS WELL AS the majority of similar "good bets" that failed to thrill us with a surprise win).

_____________________

I perceive a ticket on Zingano here very much akin to the next spin of a monthly 4-number double-zero roulette promo that'll pay, say 9-to-1 instead of the fair no-edge payout of 8.5-to-1.
Value?...of course!...a huge 5.88% ROI over the long haul
Likely to win the very next spin?...of course not! (you've got less than a 10.53% chance of cashing on any one spin)...
But you'd be stupid to not line up there once a month religiously and place the largest bet you can sensibly afford and keep doing so as long as the promo exists.

Cat's my latest in a long line of +800-or-more ML-tickets on the MMA/OBF (over-bought favorites) promo...a good one like this seems to pop up about once a month...most of them of course are losers when considered as individual bets...but enough have been--and will continue to be--winners...to make this little habit of mine more than worthwhile.

[fitguy67]

had to bump this...lest it get forever lost among a sea of sacrelicious "appreciation" threads...and this is the next event on the horizon

[JIBBBY]

This event is in my hood.. Staples Center, Los Angeles, California..

Hard to bet against the arm bar queen. If I make a play on this crazy odds garbage I will consider the Rousey submission prop myself... No way I'm taking Rousey straight at those odds even in a parlay..

Sat 2/28

1039 Rousey wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_429" name="radiox" type="radio">-178

Side note flip side - You just know those odds are gonna jump up for Rhonda Rousey as we draw closer to fight time.. I'd suggest if any of dreamers plan on betting with Zingano straight, a wise one might wait...

[JIBBBY]

Next up!!!!

Jake Ellenberger and Tony Ferguson I like as the -200 favorites.. Placed...

Haven't liked what I've seen from Mark Munoz in recent fights so as a dog play I will roll the dice with Roan Carneiro at +250.. Placed...

[Thor4140]

Next up!!!!

Jake Ellenberger and Tony Ferguson I like as the -200 favorites.. Placed...

Haven't liked what I've seen from Mark Munoz in recent fights so as a dog play I will roll the dice with Roan Carneiro at +250.. Placed...

Jibby Jake is finished. U can see it in his eyes.

[Thor4140]

The UFC is bending over backwards to prop up Cat. I never saw a girl who almost losses every fight being this propped up. If Rousey stuns her in the first round this fight is over. Cat has no shot. Im more interested in Holly Holms fight. Now that is who i would like to see fight Rousey. Not some propped up girl who pulls out fights by the skin of her teeth.

[JIBBBY]

Jibby Jake is finished. U can see it in his eyes.

Kos was finished before Jake.. It's been years since Kos even stepped into the cage.. Jake finishes Kos standing as he's been the more active fighter and has fought top competition in his last 3 losses.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Ellenberger-13068

The Kos of 5 years ago I would take over Jake Ellenhamburger... Today I gotta go with Jake!!!!

[fitguy67]

Next up!!!!

Jake Ellenberger and Tony Ferguson I like as the -200 favorites.. Placed...

Haven't liked what I've seen from Mark Munoz in recent fights so as a dog play I will roll the dice with Roan Carneiro at +250.. Placed...

agree...there's value in them thar' faves...

as for locking it in early...i'm with you there, too...even tho early-bird shopping sometime leads to , it far more often leads to ...prices will def see-saw as prices always do, but i'd be surprised to see either of these close softer than what they are now...

the "wait till weigh in" tactic should be seen as more of a form of micro-managing the positions you've taken earlier (includding the default "nul" position you'd expect to have on the bulk of the card where nothing leaps out at you value-wise)...the weigh-in price-blips allow a second opportunity to "add" a bit to to a position taken earlier...or to sneak into a few new minor "action" positions/fliers...or even to to toatally re-evaluate your existing position (allowing you to "add more, get out of or even to reverse completely" as you deem appropriate...such as was common during the recent Gastelum situation...all sorts of jockeying...cool and fun, to be sure, but not nearly as important to your long-term success as the far more deliberate thinking and shopping you should have done well before the weigh-in)...

kudos on isolating two strong (aka. "clearly"under-price--to you, the only one that's important to your $-making efforts--that word "perceived" always has to go in there, unless you're the actual supreme commander of the universe...one man's under-priced is another man's over-priced...and vive la difference, otherwise you'd have no-one's money to take) faves...and to shopping for/locking them in early

[JIBBBY]

^^ Well Fitguy I was thinking of waiting to place on the Tony Ferguson fight as I'm not sure which way that line might go.. I did figure the Ellenberger and Munoz line would probably only go one way...

It's almost a gamble to place early in itself though in some match up scenarios when thinking of which way a line might move....

[plekz]

Next up!!!!

Jake Ellenberger and Tony Ferguson I like as the -200 favorites.. Placed...

Haven't liked what I've seen from Mark Munoz in recent fights so as a dog play I will roll the dice with Roan Carneiro at +250.. Placed...

After seeing the Castillo fight it's very hard to justify Ferguson as a -200, makes alot more sense to play an over on that fight as a parlay leg instead since i do not see Ferguson KO'ing or subbing Tibau and i don't see Tibau doing it to Ferguson either, either Ferguson will be able to volume strike by keeping his range or Tibau will make it ugly with lots of clinching and cage humping.

And Ellenberger v Kos i wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole, a guy past his prime vs a mental midget? yeah, no thanks.

[JIBBBY]

After seeing the Castillo fight it's very hard to justify Ferguson as a -200, makes alot more sense to play an over on that fight as a parlay leg instead since i do not see Ferguson KO'ing or subbing Tibau and i don't see Tibau doing it to Ferguson either, either Ferguson will be able to volume strike by keeping his range or Tibau will make it ugly with lots of clinching and cage humping.

And Ellenberger v Kos i wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole, a guy past his prime vs a mental midget? yeah, no thanks.

I like the over in the Tibau fight as well.. Good eye Plekz!!!! At -135 no need to parlay that up.. I hit it....

Pending2/28/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Gleison Tibau/Tony Ferguson Over 2½ -135*

[Thor4140]

Kos was finished before Jake.. It's been years since Kos even stepped into the cage.. Jake finishes Kos standing as he's been the more active fighter and has fought top competition in his last 3 losses.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Ellenberger-13068

The Kos of 5 years ago I would take over Jake Ellenhamburger... Today I gotta go with Jake!!!!

my bad i thought Jake was fighting someone else. I wouldn't take either in this fight. Maybe a lean to Kos

[JIBBBY]

Looking at the O/U's for this card I think a parlay play with the Derrick Lewis Under might be worth a shot. That line already moved from -185 to -190 on 5Dimes... As of late Derrick Lewis is basically a one round fighter..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derrick-Lewis-59284



Pending2/28/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Ruan Potts/Derrick Lewis Under 1½ -185*

[JIBBBY]

Thinking about how to play this Rousey/Zingano fight? Came up with this -

First off I give Zingano 0 chance to win.. The hype is on for Zingano but I think she gets smoked.. If I do play this fight I'm gonna play Rousey wins in round 1 and round 2 props... Bet accordingly on both for best return.... What do you guys think?

1025 Rousey wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> -115

1027 Rousey wins in round 2

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +425

[bjpenn85]

Zingano is a very slow fighter in the first round, while rousey is muhammed ali in comparison. Zingano is an even slower fighter than evan dunham in the first round. Price looks ok, but i wouldnt be willing to wager a lot. This is cats most important fight, maybe shes able to make a few adustments, but shes probably getting finished. Who knows maybe in round 4, shes as tuff as tate. Rousey inside and round 2. small on round 3 and 4. If cats loses in the first round like all the others, i dont know what to say..i mean you have seen a kazillion people do that and you cant withstand 5 minutes as a prof fighter beeing ranked nr 2 in the world. You go hang up right now!

[Kermit]

Rousey should be -5000

[Hollafront]

Thinking about how to play this Rousey/Zingano fight? Came up with this -

First off I give Zingano 0 chance to win.. The hype is on for Zingano but I think she gets smoked.. If I do play this fight I'm gonna play Rousey wins in round 1 and round 2 props... Bet accordingly on both for best return.... What do you guys think?

1025 Rousey wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> -115

1027 Rousey wins in round 2

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +425

Where did you come up with that?

[JIBBBY]

Where did you come up with that?

Perhaps the under u1½ -165 might work out better in this fight.. I think Rhonda is gonna finish fast that's all..

Just was looking for a way to bet this fight logically for risk vs reward.. Throwing ideas up that's all..

[UncleChael]

I think Cat will last at least 20 seconds.

[Thor4140]

I think Cat will last at least 20 seconds.

so i take it non of u guys are buying into the fake hype from the UFC machine

[Beelzebubzy]

Thinking about how to play this Rousey/Zingano fight? Came up with this -

First off I give Zingano 0 chance to win.. The hype is on for Zingano but I think she gets smoked.. If I do play this fight I'm gonna play Rousey wins in round 1 and round 2 props... Bet accordingly on both for best return.... What do you guys think?

1025 Rousey wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> -115

1027 Rousey wins in round 2

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +425

So he has Ronda in Rounds 1 and 2 at +159?
Am I do the math correctly?

[PunisherIND]

Thinking about how to play this Rousey/Zingano fight? Came up with this -

First off I give Zingano 0 chance to win.. The hype is on for Zingano but I think she gets smoked.. If I do play this fight I'm gonna play Rousey wins in round 1 and round 2 props... Bet accordingly on both for best return.... What do you guys think?

1025 Rousey wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> -115

1027 Rousey wins in round 2

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +425

sure, play those two at net odds of -264

or you can just take fight wont start round 3 at -255

keep up the good work, jibbbz.

[PunisherIND]

So he has Ronda in Rounds 1 and 2 at +159?
Am I do the math correctly?

+310

(+425 subtract -115)

[Beelzebubzy]

+310

(+425 subtract -115)

. Im a paultard.

[Fred The Hammer]

I hate Rousey so I'm not exactly neutral here but Cat is just as tall w/broad shoulders and a wide base/ass and she's pretty athletic too. Rousey has 15 lbs on fight night over someone like Tate who is a smaller woman w/big that serve no purpose in MMA. I think Cat can hang with her if she can start a little faster somehow

[JIBBBY]

sure, play those two at net odds of -264

or you can just take fight wont start round 3 at -255

keep up the good work, jibbbz.

Thank you Pun for the calculations.. Close enough odds when comparing and not a total fail when all considered... A minor fail ya bastard..

Won't start round 3 it is if I want to cover the 2 rounds and pick Rousey.. Zingano isn't Mesha Tate and she ain't gonna last...