UFC 184: Rousey Vs Zingano (February 28, 2015)

[iceman02]

What do u guys think about betting on all the underdogs

[mirinquads]

What do u guys think about betting on all the underdogs

Brilliant.

[PaperTrail07]

Gotta go 4-5 cards before you can call it dumb lol...I still love how a judge gave the fight to Kongo LOL

Brilliant.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

over 1.5 rousey (+140)

[UncleChael]

over 1.5 rousey (+140)

I don't think so bro.

[UncleChael]

What do u guys think about betting on all the underdogs

You're a week too late.

[BIGDAY]

It's fight day!!

[shabang]

meh, not feeling this card.. Have a couple of parlays open but thats it

[shabang]

over 1.5 rousey (+140)

I like the over and the fight goes to 2nd round props as well

[fitguy67]

What do u guys think about betting on all the underdogs

not ALL of them...

i have, however, isolated 7 of them that are worth a pop

Torres
Lima
Salazar
Tibau
Koscheck
Pennington
Zingano

and have put on two small-stake/potentially-hi-payout round-robins (collections of all possible combinations of parlays of a given size)...

21 as 2-leg parlays: 1u / +10.66u (best case if all were to hit...not bloody likely, but would have said the same last Sunday as well)

35 as 3-leg parlays: 1u / +36.74u (see above)

if 0-1 fighters win...full 2u stake lost (as not even one of the 56 parlays hit)
if 2 fighters win...you'll lose most of your stake as just one measley 2-leg parlay will hit
if 3 fighters win...you'll generally be in the "break even" region as 3 of your 2-leggers and 1 of your extra-hi payout 3-leggers will hit
if 4-6 fighters win...there'll be exponentially increasing degrees of wonderfulness
if ALL 7 fighters (not bloody likely, that's why round-robins are a much more sustainable way of making plays like this than one 7-legger..here there are lots of lesser lottery prizes to churn back into the project's bank)...anyhow u'd win about 47u (ie. 23.5x whatever you paid for both tickets)

(of course, for any number of winning dog-fighters, the $-impact will depend on exactly WHICH fighters they were, as the parlay payouts, especially for the 3-leggers, vary greatly)

go small, and enjoy the structured lottery ticket you've fashioned from a select sublet of dog-priced ML's..then enjoy the card and your lottery-ticket (which gives you a small chance to win big)...best to think of the total stake involved as a sunk "cover charge"...and any payouts that come from it in the same way you'd be happily surprised by hitting something nice when the door prizes are picked from a drum

____________________

i actually EXPECT Torres, Salazar, Tibau, and Pennington to win...and the remainder to have been worth the shot at the prices they were, say two days ago...
unfortunately lots of last-minute "i'm gonna parlay ALL dogs as a result of what happened last weekend" behavior has driven ALL dogs up as a group lately...so the payouts for taking such a lottery-ticket flier as i outline above has dropped considerably...payouts would have been MUCH better, especially on the 3-leggers just 48 hours ago

but just for the cheap entertainment value of it, I said "fukkit"and bit anyhow at current "overvalued dog" prices...note to self: from now on, lock into these lottery-tickets shortly after opening...and consider adding a bit more later if the payout's sweetened appreciably
___________
good luck to all, whatevery and however you play the card

[JIBBBY]

Dogs are gonna fail in this event.. Wishful thinking for another dog sweep going into this one I believe..

Although I do think Roan Carneiro has a shot against Mark Munoz... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Roan-Carneiro-2886

294423356-1

2/23/15 12:32am

Pending

2/28/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Roan Carneiro +250* <small>vs</small> Mark Munoz

[Beelzebubzy]

Jibbby how much got on Ronda tonight

[fitguy67]

I like the over and the fight goes to 2nd round props as well

the over 1.5 rounds at +137 is one of the best "thanks for the plus money" contrarian plays on the card...books and public are treating this like "Rousey v. WhoCares? or "Rousey v. Caramouche2"...

if you're looking for a replay of the "hip-toss plus school-yard bully punches" we saw in her last fight...you better just watch her last fight again...this is a much higher-calibre fighter than anyone she's faced before...but god, Zingano can NOT affort her usually slow "get beat up to warm up" start or she will be end up another early victim...and there'll be no-one left for her but a super-fight with Mighty-Mouse coming up in weight

[shabang]

the over 1.5 rounds at +137 is one of the best "thanks for the plus money" contrarian plays on the card...books and public are treating this like "Rousey v. WhoCares? or "Rousey v. Caramouche2"...

if you're looking for a replay of the "hip-toss plus school-yard bully punches" we saw in her last fight...you better just watch her last fight again...this is a much higher-calibre fighter than anyone she's faced before...but god, Zingano can NOT affort her usually slow "get beat up to warm up" start or she will be end up another early victim...and there'll be no-one left for her but a super-fight with Mighty-Mouse coming up in weight

lol @ mightymouse (I hear he's pretty lonely haha) How about cyborg? She dominated last night..don't even know what to think about it since it was just a bar beating inside of an octagon..Looked wild, but dominating and powerful. Zingano always gets ****** up then always comes back..It's like she has a mental fight to win before she can win the physical fight..she is slow at starting because of this, but tough..I'm hoping she makes it to round 2 at least..I even think we might be in for a surprise..(hitting rounds 4-5)

On the other hand ronda is super fast at starting so if zingano can survive the storm early on then we might have a good fight...Anybody think ronda gasses if this hits the later rounds? Ronda is pretty much unknown and untested in deep waters.

[fitguy67]

two long-shot "method of victory" lottery-ticket props i like

koscheck SUB+939
pennington SUB +1250

there has been movement on both of these since yesterday when i first got interested in them...they've both shortened at least 20% since then, when Pennington,SUB was +1550 and Koscheck was 1250...

neither worth more than a quarter-unit

[brooks85]

what rogan see here? 29m15s mark

http://youtu.be/JDJCoHxbbo0?t=29m15s

[Demonata]

This card is annoying. I like Koscheck though to win.

[fitguy67]

lol @ mightymouse (I hear he's pretty lonely haha) How about cyborg? She dominated last night..don't even know what to think about it since it was just a bar beating inside of an octagon..Looked wild, but dominating and powerful. Zingano always gets ****** up then always comes back..It's like she has a mental fight to win before she can win the physical fight..she is slow at starting because of this, but tough..I'm hoping she makes it to round 2 at least..I even think we might be in for a surprise..(hitting rounds 4-5)

On the other hand ronda is super fast at starting so if zingano can survive the storm early on then we might have a good fight...Anybody think ronda gasses if this hits the later rounds? Ronda is pretty much unknown and untested in deep waters.

Rousey's brilliance to date means two questions have yet to be answered...

*gas tank...how will her execution hold up as a fight really lengthens...as you point out, we've never seen her in R4 or beyond...(I suspect the answer is WELL, meaning it won't be worse--and likely better--than any opponent)

*what happens if she gets hurt: nobody ever knows that with a dominant-to-this-point fighter...eg. Jones was able to take it when he got hurt--and badly--for the first time against Gus, but it's a completely different thing dominating a fight from start to finish vs. really getting in a "give and take" scrap...

here's where we know Zingano gets an "A"...the ability to "take a licking and still keep ticking"...IF she can hurt Ronda for the first time (as Gus did to Jones)...things can get VERY interesting...either Ronda rises to the occasion, falls apart or something in between...but nobody knows until it happens...

we know Zingo has both chin and heart...but Rousey's excellence to date means we've never had a chance to see what happens if she gets hurt and/or taken deep...does she have the sort of chin and heart required to persevere in the hurtin' game if/when the going gets tough?...we really don't know if she's a "fair weather" fighter like Cormier (who wilted in his first MMA fight where it wasn't all one-way hurtin')...or an "all conditions" fighter like Jones who's twice now "dug deep" and "done what's necessary" to win in the face of hardship (when up till those two fights he never really had to)...

i hope Zingano starts strong for a change...and we get to answer these questions...hopefully she's the Gustaffson that Jones "needed"...and Rousey is the Jones that, to that point had just squashed everyone...
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i'm kinda' jazzed about this fight...I hope (and honestly think) it won't be the squash match everyone is expecting

[UncleChael]

Zingano won't last a minute!

[fitguy67]

Zingano won't last a minute!

stupid me for over-complicating something so simple

to liven up this thread, how's about we put on a little betpoints wager on the prop

Rousey wins in Round 1, -120
Any other result, +120

the 5d odds now are -125/-120...i've just removed the book's take

you keep saying Rousey squashes this bug in a minute...you'll get five times that in this proposition

Rousey wins before R2 begins i ship you 200pts...it R2 starts u ship me 240...

we're both pro-status so we can settle as soon as the fight's settled...

whaddya' say pal?

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby how much got on Ronda tonight

Beelz how much do you have on Rhonda?

I have 0 on a straight play.. However, I do like a few of the Rousey under round bets and did play those...

[UncleChael]

stupid me for over-complicating something so simple

to liven up this thread, how's about we put on a little betpoints wager on the prop

Rousey wins in Round 1, -120
Any other result, +120

the 5d odds now are -125/-120...i've just removed the book's take

you keep saying Rousey squashes this bug in a minute...you'll get five times that in this proposition

Rousey wins before R2 begins i ship you 200pts...it R2 starts u ship me 240...

we're both pro-status so we can settle as soon as the fight's settled...

whaddya' say pal?

I'll give you 500 bet points if she doesnt squash her, bud.

[UncleChael]

Also playing Richard Walsh and Josh Koscheck for my dogs.

[fitguy67]

I'll give you 500 bet points if she doesnt squash her, bud.

fair enough...the Rowdy one gets a full five minutes to squash the poor Cat into road-kill

if she does, i ship u 200, if not...u ship me 500

good luck to both of us with the real-world/real money bets...

sure we're on lotsa da same faves: krause, ferguson, and lewis to squash all the potts in his octagonal kitchen

[shabang]

on krause

[JIBBBY]

Judging already shaky in the first bout.. Rogan called it with the one judge...

[Demonata]

Lets go krause. Anybody have a stream?

[JIBBBY]

Krause starting to slow I think he's gonna get stopped in round 2 or 3...

[Demonata]

I say 1-1

[imadegen]

ellenberger koshcheck over 1.5 rounds @ -175.

[JIBBBY]

Krause took the shots and hung in.. Tough fight to score..

Maybe Krause gets it...

[Demonata]

I give krause the win 2-1

[Demonata]

Bullshit.

[JIBBBY]

Derrick Lewis and the under for I...

[Demonata]

If derrick lewis loses i swear.