UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Mir (February 22, 2015)

[fitguy67]

^^ I read more complaining posts from self proclaiming gambling experts on this forum more then any other gambling forum... They whine about forum deficiencies, lack of fighter discussions, breakdowns, matchups, etc.. All the while these same complaining posters never actually contribute a single MMA discussion gambling post much like oddtodd just did..

I just read a short story post of complaints but not one sentence in that entire post from OddTodd was about the fights or any kind of fighter breakdown, betting value, etc.. on this upcoming event...

A waste of a read as far as I'm concerned... That's what I think OddTodd...

Lead by example oddtodd, post a pick, a breakdown, a fight matchup, contribute with substance, enlighten us all, etc..

In fairness, Jibs, re-read his second-last paragraph, where he gives a very good example of the the sorts of "off the radar" intel that we should be sharing around here...and we could/would be able to do this more if the cycle of sniping/retaliating would subside.

A very good recent example of this is CaptainChaos and Thor tipping us all off in technicolor of the value in Levin Makashvili (in a fight that unfortunately got cancelled...) based on their personal heavy exposure to the regional promotion in which both he and Felder--a guy who made a "surprise" mega-splash on his UFC debut a bit earlier--came from.

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I REALLY hate having to waste my reading and writing time trying to defend this place from the band of better-than-thou snots that love to disrupt what they have supposedly "left behind"...but if well-aimed retaliatory posts help to keep da' bastids at bay...and it buys some peace-time =frees up "thread space" for 'da guys who actually wanna talk fights, betting on fights, and betting in general...then it's worth the sacrifice of me at times lookin' as bad as the shit-disturbing sophists i'm forced into keypad-battle with...
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BTW Todd, this place'd improve a great deal if you would continue to post...you will notice that there's far less droll-smart-assery trying to squelch free discussion than there was just a few events back...so feel free to step into that vacuum...there's a ton of cards coming up with lots of "KnownGuy vs. OpponentX" fights just begging for "off the radar" stuff on "opponentX"...a few Felder-magnitude coups a year and this forum is definitely worth the time spent on it...particularly now that it's far less cluttered with pretentious movie-talk, inside jokes, and put-downs

[JIBBBY]

SBR is a wasteland Jibby. i here oddsbeast is taking sign ups. Might be a better place for you.

Sherdog forum is a wasteland.. I read and breeze through several betting forums regularly Sider just to pick up on key information.. I post on this forum 95% of the time with my picks and thoughts and will continue to do so.... I'm loyal like that and not going any where.....

RXforum for other sports, MMAbettingtips forum for MMA are just a few I look in on daily.

[Thor4140]

SBR is a wasteland Jibby. i here oddsbeast is taking sign ups. Might be a better place for you.

This used to be a nice place to post but ego's got in the way. At one time it was Posters against the books. Now it is poster against poster for some strange reason. Bunch of grudge holders and throw in some liars. We are all trying to beat the books but somehow this got lost somewhere. Guys thinking they are betting against each other for some douchy reason.

[phelios]

Sherdog forum is a wasteland.. I read and breeze through several betting forums regularly Sider just to pick up on key information.. I post on this forum 95% of the time with my picks and thoughts and will continue to do so.... I'm loyal like that and not going any where..... RXforum for other sports, MMAbettingtips forum for MMA are just a few I look in on daily.

Shedog is awful I agree. Check out Tapology. It's the only other mma site I read. Too bad this event only has one post over there.

[phelios]

This used to be a nice place to post but ego's got in the way. At one time it was Posters against the books. Now it is poster against poster for some strange reason. Bunch of grudge holders and throw in some liars. We are all trying to beat the books but somehow this got lost somewhere. Guys thinking they are betting against each other for some douchy reason.

The lines kept getting harder and harder to beat. Back in 2010 it was easy to get along because everyone was making money. I have a sick pregnant wife I have to take care of so I just browse SBR to blow off time while I read python programming tutorials.

[JIBBBY]

Shedog is awful I agree. Check out Tapology. It's the only other mma site I read. Too bad this event only has one post over there.

Tapology blows Sider.. I've been there and done that already and found very little useful information.. Many other MMA gambling forums with pages and pages of solid reads for the events that are more worthy of my time....

[phelios]

tapology is very good for following the asia mma scene in english. They have a better database than sherdawg

[fitguy67]

sider, a forum-ware question: how do you "condense" the posts you're quoting...removing all the carriage returns and spaces so that it takes up much less space...

u do this manually, or is there a more-efficient way?

[phelios]

yeah I do it auto with no script on firefox. Just turn off the javascript running from all the domains on this site

[Beelzebubzy]

The lines kept getting harder and harder to beat. Back in 2010 it was easy to get along because everyone was making money. I have a sick pregnant wife I have to take care of so I just browse SBR to blow off time while I read python programming tutorials.

You do codeacademy yet?

[phelios]

You do codeacademy yet?

no i will have to check that out. i just read the python website, forums and a lot of the documentation on http://scrapy.org/doc/ . Just trying to get my scraping better for the more advanced sites.

[fitguy67]

Sider, i just studied your take on the Adrade fight on the first 2 pages of this thread...and u have "typed" at least one convert over to the MarionReneau side...at the price+215 it's a no-brainer...

Andrade is definitely over-bought here (a good default "healthy suspicion" you should cultivate for most Brazilian fighters--whether fave or dog--when the cage is in Brazil...as it's practically a duty of citizenship for all Brazilians to at least put a token bet on each)...

[phelios]

Sider, u "typed" at least one convert over to the MarionReneau side...at the price+215 it's a no-brainer...

It really is. Faria had value too. She lost a split decision in Poland but at +212 there was value.

[JIBBBY]

UFC weigh ins..

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-Weighin-Results-Bigfoot-Silva-Frank-Mir-Official-82237

Frank Mir looks fit... Houston we have lift off!!!!

[Crassus]

Frank Mir at 261. He's gonna be wayyy more athletic guys.

[fitguy67]

Frank Mir at 261. He's gonna be wayyy more athletic guys.

Mir at 261 pounds...and at +260 payout!!!

about a minute after i typed this, plunged to +248...would expect it to keep moving in that direction till fight-time

[fitguy67]

It really is. Faria had value too. She lost a split decision in Poland but at +212 there was value.

gotta love the deep-discount prices that exist NOT because goods are known to be of poor quality...but simply because not much is known to the majority of bettors about the quality of the goods...

even sharp cappers have this "no news is bad news" or "if they haven't gotten onto my radar yet, can't be very good" approach...it's why a little digging always pays in the long run...

i like to listen to podcasts with an ear toward which debuting fighters are being auto-slagged with little/no reasoning apart from the assumption that even the very best from a lesser promotion must be mediocre at best in the UFC

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before the last card, on TheMMA-Analysis podcast no-one gave Levin Makashvili a chance because no-one knew where "that other Georgia" was and his name sounds like "my cack is schmelly"...the prevalence of such a lazy attitude of discounting what you don't know much about explained much of the kid's nearly +300 payout...fight unfortunately cancelled, but i expect the same mechanism to undervalue him when he's re-scheduled...and is fueling at least some of the current "Andrade vs. non-Brazilian MarionWho?" pricing

[Crassus]

Mir at 261 pounds...and at +260 payout!!!

about a minute after i typed this, plunged to +248...would expect it to keep moving in that direction till fight-time

Hope you're right, gonna pound that Bigfoot ML and ITD.

[JIBBBY]

TJ Waldburger fight cancelled.. One of my larger plays too.. ..

[snapperman2]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/2832930-excel-based-tutorial-web-scraping.html

no i will have to check that out. i just read the python website, forums and a lot of the documentation on http://scrapy.org/doc/ . Just trying to get my scraping better for the more advanced sites.

Maybe you would be interested in this thread on scraping with Visual Basic and Excel:

[Educ8d Degener8]

Mir

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[oddtodd]

I just read a short story post of complaints but not one sentence in that entire post from OddTodd was about the fights or any kind of fighter breakdown, betting value, etc.. on this upcoming event...

A waste of a read as far as I'm concerned... That's what I think OddTodd...

Lead by example oddtodd, post a pick, a breakdown, a fight matchup, contribute with substance, enlighten us all, etc..

I will be posting more detailed analysis, breakdowns and thoughts for upcoming cards. Hopefully starting with 184. If I'm going to post about a specific fight, i'd like to watch the last 3 fights of both competitors and see if I feel value on either side or on any prop before just hitting the keyboard and providing possibly false or misleading beliefs and I didnt have much time leading into this card.. I guess my post was born out of frustration as I hoped someone had done the work for me and I can steal a few more ideas for bets.

I am not looking to wow anyone with my insights and gambling genius and yes my first post was delivered with a little too much grandeur. The forum critiques (not that ive found much better ones for any other sport) could prove to only alienate rather than inspire. However, the goal is a simple one, we can't do this alone and I'm not sure how helpful the current format is for turning a profit.. Jibby, I do appreciate the direction and information pooling that you do provide and there is enough information here to keep me coming back along with a few other sources.

I believe in qualitative analysis with regard to MMA betting. I want to see if anyone agrees or disagrees with the qualities or deficits of a fighter that I think will effect a certain match up. When simple picks are accompanied with a detailed record it can be a good indicator about the quality of the pick.. but what if the reasons someone with a fantastic track record provides for a pick immediately strike you as misguided or are incompatible with your view on that fight? Both parties can learn from such a discussion.

Briefly, for this card:

The fight that has me the most intrigued is Barboza vs Johnson.. I feel that Johnson has quite a bit of value at his current odds (around 2.6) given how his confidence and accuracy has been part of the recipe to defeat Barboza in the past. If you can take what Barboza is doling out.. he's pretty hittable. Far more dropable in my opinion than Johnson and unlike Castillo, MJ finishes people pretty reliably with GNP after he drops them. MJs worst aspect is his horrible bottom game, but I assume Edson will bypass this fault entirely either by his own volition or an inability to capatalize on it.

Barboza skills are pretty obvious, but MJ has never been stopped by strikes and I can only remember seeing him dropped by a punch once (against Castillo). However, Barboza's damage often comes to the body or legs which seems to end peoples night without preference. Still I would actually be more suprised with a Barboza finish that a Johnson one. Currently, Sportsinteraction has MJ by KO at 4.49 (+349) and I will be playing that as I think theres even more value than with the straight line.

For the rest of this card, I fell in love with the favorites. I have taken Khabilov, Alcantara (as well as by sub and will likely make a play on him in rd 1 as well as he always comes storming out of the gates), Macario and Cody Gibson on a combination of parlays and individual bets. Unfortunately, I bet these earlier in the week based off of instinct, a few notes from earlier fights and pasting stuff together from some of the more detailed posters on Sherdog - the whole forum is a shitshow yes, but there Betting only topics are actually well detailed with guys like EZ Flyer, MMA Goodfella and many others providing indepth thoughts. Since I bet these fights though the odds have all dropped significantly. For Alcantara I got him at 1.22(now 1.14), Khabilov it was 1.33 (on will hill, now 1.2) and Cody Gibson was at 1.5. At their current odds I would actually say they dont have any value and with the question marks surrounding Khabilov's cardio, camp issues and Martins overall solid game I may even like a shot at the underdog.

Lines tend to have a serious drift in MMA so I feel like making the right decisions early in the week before the rest of the betting public jumps on the bandwagon can make a serious difference in profitability.. Then again, I haven't done any work quantifying the difference in correlation between the opening and closing lines and the outcome of a fight and recently the line movements favoring Thatch and Gustaffson turned out to be fools gold and cost me most of my profits on those events. Maybe I will attempt this correlation analysis later this year as I am currently taking courses in Data Science through Coursera which has shown me some pretty useful tools on how to accomplish this with enough data to reach a level of statistical significance. Anyways, beating the closing line can't hurt if you are also confident with the picks.

[PaperTrail07]

FIT LOL LMFAO....That fight was pathctic.....a slow slow boxing match not 1 takedown or kick lol

haha ew, that fight was awful! (dan kelly vs walsh, what olympian?)

[PaperTrail07]

Nice I like it JIBBBY....my parlays are just for fun.....straight bet are another story....will be 600 @ 200 here and there in the right "spots"...here are my spotsFighting - 24206 E. Barboza -155 for Game
Fighting - 24210 C. Ferreira -305 for Game
Fighting - 24214 R. Khabilov -455 for Game
Fighting - 24226 J. Andrade (W) -230 for Game

[PaperTrail07]

Alcantara went from -500 to over -1000......wtf......bUELLER.....anyone?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

ya that Alcantatra line was -350ish earlier in the week..

I like your parlay, papertrail.

Jibby, Mir being fit won't help his glass chin much but best of luck...seems like a good strategy to take dogs in heavyweight fights since one punch can end it. I've learned my lesson on heavyweight chalk over the years.

[fitguy67]

Mir

taking him as the first leg of an open 3-fighter parlay with Golde and Frank Incense when they finally debut (hopefully in December)

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Apologies: the spirit of Sac made me do it....had to fight hard to not open up a thread (er, i mean 5...this one, two full of value plays on MMA-draws...and two appreciation threads...one appreciating Sac for not starting any more appreciation threads, and one in appreciation for things yet to be determined)
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but seriously folks...Mir is one of a number of dogs live enough to be worth a look at in terms of low-stake/hi-payout fliers or full-fledged plays if so moved...along with Johnson, Alvey, Martins, Reneau, DougSilva

odds ignored, ie. as straight-up picks--i actually would expect Johnson and Mir to win and would expect at least one of the remaining 4 to surprise (in order of "likelihood"=least-shocking first: Reneau, Alvey, Martins, DougSilva)...

let's see: that's why they actually hold the fights

[JIBBBY]

Ivan Jorge by sub win in the first prelim fight seems like a decent prop to play .. This Brazilian has alot of sub wins on his record...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ivan-Jorge-5432 Josh Shockley has been sub'd out a few times himself..

I think it's worth a shot anyways at +302.. Anyone on this?

Pending2/22/15 5:00pm Props Fighting 2131 Jorge wins by submission +302* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[PaperTrail07]

TY peavey...Johnson has looked better,,,,buuut in Brazil...Cash it for EB....only one im worried about...others should be a no sweat..

[PaperTrail07]

sick -350 to -1015

[shabang]

have ivan jorge and cody gibson in a parlay..hoping these 2 can start off my night with some wins.

also like barboza ML (hoping MJ get's shattered with leg kicks), the OVER for the mir/bigfoot fight .. Unsure of the bitch fight so I picked fight hits rounds 2 and 3 and the over.

Have a few parlays with a lot of these fights going to rounds 2

[Kermit]

I think Sam Alvey is a legit dog in this fight tonight. +300 is way too much to pass up on IMO.

[pavyracer]

Should we bet Brazilian fighters since the judges are home boys?

[Kermit]

Should we bet Brazilian fighters since the judges are home boys?

I've seen the Bazillions on the losing side of close decisions in the past down there.