UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs. Saffiedine (October 04, 2014)

[Skel]

Was looking at that 4 inch height advantage in Anthony Njokuani (16-8) over Daren Cruickshank (15-5) to make a huge difference in this fight but that's just not enough for me to bet on the dude....Njokuani is a stand up fighter first though and could possible out strike or knock out Daren Cruick...

I can't pull that trigger on this fight at just +160 for A.N.. anyways.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Njokuani-7540

We did just see Daren get worked over standing for 3 rounds by Masvidal... Respectable loss though... Cruickshank has that funky Karate style, showed he can take a good punch in the past, the better ground game and wrestling going into this one, but most importantly Daren has those crazy spinning kicks that will probably land at some point on the chin of A.N....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daron-Cruickshank-53717

Odds are probably spot on and this might be a no play for me.. If I had to pick I would go with Daren Cruichshank though...



Just typing as I think and continue cap out these last few fights..

Jibby, look at Njokuani's record. Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. He's due.

[JIBBBY]

Jibby, look at Njokuani's record. Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. He's due.

You're due Skel, forum section is dead and everyone is watching the games.. Just posting up stuff as I watch the games myself....

I know you're joking but if you were keeping it real - Same can be said for Daren C.. He's responded well after every loss during his MMA career.. He's due too... Like I said it's a tough fight to bet on.. LOL...

[Napes21]

I just like to say "Parlays aren't magic" every few months to remind everyone that it's my catchphrase.

Should get that on a T-shirt

[JIBBBY]

^^^Poorlays can be magical if you can run the table on an entire event with all fight picks hitting on that day!!!

Playing just a 5 buck parlay with every event you can win thousands when hitting during the course of a year or season of play... Most of us gamblers that have been around this game long enough know that hitting 8-12 bets in a row on the money line picks in their favorite sports is doable.. If dialed in on that day it will happen!!! Football you only have 16 tries a year to hit... MMA maybe 40 events or more a year... NBA 82, MLB for an entire 160 game a day season..

I think a few guys posting up in this beast like - Educ8, Wilbo, Ron Paul, Bumdeal, Rocky, Nunya, V, MD, Punisher, Skel, Bumdeal, Marz, BJPenn and a few others should do that parlay trick with every event for a few bucks..

For all others reading in I will leave you with this question...

[Napes21]

^^^Poorlays can be magical if you can run the table on an entire event with all fight picks hitting!!!

Playing just a 5 buck parlay with every event you can win thousands when hitting. Most of us gamblers that have been around this game long enough know that hitting 8-12 bets in a row on the money line picks in their favorite sports is doable.. If dialed it on that day it will happen!!! Football you only have 16 tries a year to hit... MMA maybe 40 events or more a year... NBA 82, MLB for an entire 160 game a day season..

I think a few guys posting up in this beast like - Educ8, Ron Paul, Bumdeal, Rocky, Nunya, MD, Punisher, Skel, and a few others should do that parlay trick with every event for a few bucks..

For all others reading in I will leave you with this question...

Jibby - if you are gambling to make a profit long term you should be betting your perceived edge which means sometimes betting on someone you think will actually lose the fight (or game) but there is value in the line still - if you do a $1 or $5 or $10 parlay card and try to pick all winners you are not playing the value and not playing smart - yes it is nice to hit those but chances are you will waste hundreds or thousands on those parlay cards before you actually win one. You should start a spreadsheet and keep track of your bets - it will help you immensely in seeing what is profitable and what is not over time

[MD]

Nunya's right. Take it as a cue and spend a couple of hours googling theory on parlays... its all there and doesn't take long. Who'd have thought in the age of the internet huh?

Or he could read a one-sentence description of what a parlay is.

"Advanced gambling theory", "they both have hands theory", and now "parlay theory." SBR is full of physicists.

[TPowell]

Patrick Holohan looks like MONEY on this card to me. Thinking about a Gagnon and Munhoz parlay as well. Maybe Felder if the price keeps going up

[Wilbo86]

Or he could read a one-sentence description of what a parlay is.

"Advanced gambling theory", "they both have hands theory", and now "parlay theory." SBR is full of physicists.

People on SBR also tend to interpret things in their literal extremes, consistently and for no reason...

[MD]

People on SBR also tend to interpret things in their literal extremes, consistently and for no reason...

Nunya's right. Take it as a cue and spend a couple of hours googling theory on parlays... its all there and doesn't take long. Who'd have thought in the age of the internet huh?

Do these sound like the words of a man who knows that a parlay is simply a series of straight wagers in which the sum of the previous wagers is placed on the next?

I leave you to ponder that. Good day.

[Wilbo86]

Do these sound like the words of a man who knows that a parlay is simply a series of straight wagers in which the sum of the previous wagers is placed on the next?

I leave you to ponder that. Good day.

Some people here blatantly don't understand that, and hence who my comment was directed at. The same people that might need to do some reading to understand the allbeit simple concept.

But yeah you're right, my use of the word "theory" was implying paralelles between parlays and a field like physics and was thus inappropriate, thanks for pointing that out. I won't be makin the same mistake anytime soon.

[JIBBBY]

Patrick Holohan looks like MONEY on this card to me. Thinking about a Gagnon and Munhoz parlay as well. Maybe Felder if the price keeps going up

I also like Holonhan - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Patrick-Holohan-63616... Simply just a better fighter.

Gagnon - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mitch-Gagnon-37404... Alot more UFC experience going in..

Munhoz - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pedro-Munhoz-52407.. I give Jarred Saunders a good chance of winning this fight.. At +348 I gotta give Saunders a try in this one...

Felder - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205 Dude is still unproven at 8-0 fighting in these no name organizations.. Leaning towards Jason Saggo myself..

Good luck TPowel.. Thanks for sharing...

[TPowell]

I also like Holonhan - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Patrick-Holohan-63616... Simply just a better fighter.

Gagnon - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mitch-Gagnon-37404... Alot more UFC experience going in..

Munhoz - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Pedro-Munhoz-52407.. I give Jarred Saunders a good chance of winning this fight.. At +348 I gotta give Saunders a try in this one...

Felder - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205 Dude is still unproven at 8-0 fighting in these no name organizations.. Leaning towards Jason Saggo myself..

Good luck TPowel.. Thanks for sharing...

Gagnon is fighting a guy on basically a weeks notice making the trip from Arizona to Canada in his first UFC fight which I love. Sanders was ABUSED by Cedeno his last fight. The fact that Munhoz survived against Raphael 2 fights ago says a lot IMO. Munhoz is also younger and coming into his own I think. Felder is unproven but Saggo is as well. His first and only fight in the UFC was against a garbage fighter IMO

[bjpenn85]

Saunders @ + money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOTTA GIVE SOUNDERS A TRY

[Vaughany]

@MMAjunkieJohn
Sweden will use a full size cage. Two large UFC venues Saturday means 2 full size cages. Don't shoot the messenger. Confirmed the big cage for Halifax, too.

[Wilbo86]

@MMAjunkieJohn
Sweden will use a full size cage. Two large UFC venues Saturday means 2 full size cages. Don't shoot the messenger. Confirmed the big cage for Halifax, too.

I heard somewhere that they only have one of each size... I assume thats was BS?

[Bumdeal]

Betting against Munhoz is tossing money down the drain. That's my homie.

[TPowell]

Gagnon is fighting a guy on basically a weeks notice making the trip from Arizona to Canada in his first UFC fight which I love. Sanders was ABUSED by Cedeno his last fight. The fact that Munhoz survived against Raphael 2 fights ago says a lot IMO. Munhoz is also younger and coming into his own I think. Felder is unproven but Saggo is as well. His first and only fight in the UFC was against a garbage fighter IMO

scratch that Arizona thing, wrong fight

[Wilbo86]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say I'm cappng Saffeidine at close to 50% in this fights... Would start a shit "X gonna get tooled" thread but thats not my style...

Thoughts? Anyone want to convince me otherwise?

[Skel]

You guys pumped for tomorrow?

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins... http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/10/3...weigh-in-video

[Sacrelicious]

Saffeidine -1700

[marzwoody]

Gonna go out on a limb here and say I'm cappng Saffeidine at close to 50% in this fights... Would start a shit "X gonna get tooled" thread but thats not my style...

Thoughts? Anyone want to convince me otherwise?

Rory gonna win niqqa.

[JIBBBY]

If it gets to -550 I'll try Saf... Those odds got out of control for sure...

Prop - Rory by submission win +614...

[Thor4140]

Felder - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205 Dude is still unproven at 8-0 fighting in these no name organizations.. Leaning towards Jason Saggo myself..
..[/QUOTE]

Dont underestimate this Felder kid. I know a little about him and i would go all in if i knew this wasn't his first ufc fight and in Canada where a shitty decision could come to play. This kid is a beast.

[Educ8d Degener8]

About a year ago, Felder beat Julian "Let Me Bang, Bro" Lane. That has to factor into analysis.

[Wilbo86]

Anyone know when this starts EST? Usually has written at top of PBP but can´t find it

[JIBBBY]

4 dog plays I got on this card.... $100 bucks on each...

Bruno Santos +335
Cedeno +265
Paul Felder +150
Jerrod Saunders +425

[Educ8d Degener8]

Respectfully disagree with the bolded. GSP's takedowns are/were the best in mma. Prime/healthy GSP outwrestled "elite wrestlers". Saff is a tough crafty mf'r. Judges are idiots. Saff by dec +975 has my eye.

Well that dec line is down to around +500... only ended up sprinkling a small play on it. Might still consider Saff by split/maj dec +1240.

[JIBBBY]

My $5 dollar 12 team parlay... (thought to share as these are all my picks below for tonight)

Down a little bit on the weekend but looking to make a strong comeback in this event.. Me hopes...

$5 parlay to win $5,991.

Saunders
Tumenov
Holohan
Felder
Mercier
Cruickshank
Gagnon
Taleb
Santos
Cedeno
Assuncao
Rory MacDonald

[marzwoody]

Trailed.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

scandinavian guys got crushed in Sweden, will the Canadians share the same fate?

[Bava]

scandinavian guys got crushed in Sweden, will the Canadians share the same fate?

Nope

[fitguy67]

4 dog plays I got on this card.... $100 bucks on each...

Bruno Santos +335
Cedeno +265
Paul Felder +150
Jerrod Saunders +425

i popped a unit on each...would be surprised if we don't hit at least the one of 'em needed to prevent agony...
anything beyond that will bring increasingly-wonderful levels of financial ecstasy

[mirinquads]

Njokuani here.

[MexicanStallion]

Munhoz by Sub +110
x2