auto-play (fixed target) all UFC dogs [+200 ,+400] starts jun28

[fitguy67]

Why in the world would you bet your entire stake on a risky, unproven model you haven't even bothered to back test...

ask this exact same question the next time someone posts a "method of victory" play that's virtually impossible to back-test properly, with all the nuances that're usually also factored into the selection, because it basically came from "watching tape" and thinking...even moreso if it's applied with a varying weight to which an ethereal "level of confidence" is attached...don't think any of the data-base sites have a column for that

yet when someone specifies exactly what he's going to start doing clearly, based on an observable state of quantifiable parameters available to all (price itself)...AND the date on which he's going to start doing so...he gets "where's your due diligence as to how this has performed exactly over the last 50 events"

meanwhile on the forum, all manner of fuzzily-estimated probabilities of things with virtually no systematic data-base (or a ridiculously small sample size such as one fighter's percentage of being involved in split decisions in Brazil or whatnot) are invoked with not a peep along the lines of "please elaborate on the quantitative foundation that underlies your suggestion that the risking of cash on this fictional scenario of yours is called for "...

i have no qualms whatever with people basing their plays on whatever they wish...as long as they attempt to state in some explicit way exactly what that basis is..."tea leaves", fine...intel garnered from bangin' the fighter's ex, fine...figures from "Fightnomics" twitter feed, fine..."a movie that plays out in your head about how this fight plays out, based on lots of careful watching of videos of previous fights AND a W-L, U track record suggesting how good you are with this approach", bang...also fine..."trust me dude, you'll thank me tomorrow..."...also fine IF it's stated as honestly as this...

just don't insist on more quantitative stringency from those who actually attempt to apply some voluntarily on themselves, while letting anything and everything else go unvetted...

intelligence and deliberation are wonderful things...so is the habit of applying them with sensible levels of consistency

[NunyaBidness]

Was downstairs at the roulette table, guy told me he met a professional roulette player who was killing the game. '

He told me his system was to bet the day of the month, whichever number the minute hand was facing, and his daughter's birthday.

I told him that it sounded like a winning system, but I wasn't sure if I was supposed to bet his daughter's birthday or mine.

[fitguy67]

reminds me of the manager at the Outback near here who's trying to run up a clientele for his son's nascent "nude oil massage" therapy service by giving out free samples to whoever's occupying a randomly selected table/seat# as spit out by the computer's cash-register software once each hour...one free session is awarded subject to one simple condition...the customer must accurately guess the number the manager's thinking of..."from one to three"...

over the last six months or so, both I and my young wife have been up for that door prize 3 times each...wouldn't you know it...she always guesses right and I always "just miss by one"

[gabe]

both I and my young wife

[fitguy67]

hey, gabe...pssst...go back to post #23 and read the last paragraph...pm me is ok, but i don't want this thread derailed into an Intimidatathon...those bad guys who come just to say bad things to you use all kinds of words i can't find in the dictionary...the ones i can find all have something to do with "burning sticks"...and the mood gets so unremittingly mean-spirited, i have to drink a bottle of Pepto Bismol



'saul good, pal...'saul in the name of comedy...joke wouldn't work with "annoying old crone", now would it?...words are like the oil colors with which we paint our pictures



pssst...down here...act normal...just back away from the keyboard...maybe the bullies'll be busy somewhere else and not notice

[PaperTrail07]

[fitguy67]

thanks PT, the youtube videos of that are just too short...the image does the trick...

what i'd like right now would be a youtube video of "Mister Rogers' Neighborhood"

...that famous lost "Can you say captious?" episode...

_____________

one of the trueset of the truisms is "No good deed goes unpunished"...

i lay out an idea in technicolor, say exactly what i'm going to do, then set about doing it...and suddenly it becomes my responsibiily to satisfy everyone's postured reservations and curiosities regarding any and all aspects of it...

if anyone is legitimately curious and wants to consider/investigate any aspect of what i've laid out as my betting strategy for future cards...and REALLY wants to know exactly how it WOULD HAVE performed in the past...then they are free to perform whatever studies that would satisfy their curiosities/interests/intellectual longings...

everyone is free, nay encouraged to knock themselves out in this "satisfaction of curiosities spun out from the project" regard...in fact i'd be really jazzed to know what you come up with...as it would be a REAL (and not merely a "feigned" one--of which we already have far too much of) contribution to the thread...

by contrast, expressing faux-intellectual "concerns" in a patronizing way...as if you already have investigated every avenue of something and are amused by the enthusiasm-juxtaposed-with-the-futility of the efforts of your intellectual inferiors...well, it contributes absolutely nothing AND is fukking annoying...

reminds me of something my dad said to me often as i was growing up..."everybody likes a smart kid...nobody likes a smart-ass kid"...MMA forum has way too many smart kids who take it as license to be "smart-ass kids"

_________________

one more paragraph left in my "if the shoe fits" rant

in summary...please don't try to shunt the responsibility to satisfy each and every curiosity that this idea might have triggered back onto me...got additional questions? (real ones, not contrived ones)... great...try to answer them for yourself and report what YOU get...but don't bring it up like your question is something I vomited on your floor...and it's my job to clean up for you

[Das Jax]

ask this exact same question the next time someone posts a "method of victory" play that's virtually impossible to back-test properly, with all the nuances that're usually also factored into the selection, because it basically came from "watching tape" and thinking...even moreso if it's applied with a varying weight to which an ethereal "level of confidence" is attached...don't think any of the data-base sites have a column for that

yet when someone specifies exactly what he's going to start doing clearly, based on an observable state of quantifiable parameters available to all (price itself)...AND the date on which he's going to start doing so...he gets "where's your due diligence as to how this has performed exactly over the last 50 events"

meanwhile on the forum, all manner of fuzzily-estimated probabilities of things with virtually no systematic data-base (or a ridiculously small sample size such as one fighter's percentage of being involved in split decisions in Brazil or whatnot) are invoked with not a peep along the lines of "please elaborate on the quantitative foundation that underlies your suggestion that the risking of cash on this fictional scenario of yours is called for "...

i have no qualms whatever with people basing their plays on whatever they wish...as long as they attempt to state in some explicit way exactly what that basis is..."tea leaves", fine...intel garnered from bangin' the fighter's ex, fine...figures from "Fightnomics" twitter feed, fine..."a movie that plays out in your head about how this fight plays out, based on lots of careful watching of videos of previous fights AND a W-L, U track record suggesting how good you are with this approach", bang...also fine..."trust me dude, you'll thank me tomorrow..."...also fine IF it's stated as honestly as this...

just don't insist on more quantitative stringency from those who actually attempt to apply some voluntarily on themselves, while letting anything and everything else go unvetted...

intelligence and deliberation are wonderful things...so is the habit of applying them with sensible levels of consistency

Not sure why you're getting salty here. You made a post basically saying you thought there was a statistical way to beat the odds picking dogs in the long-run. Myself, and several other people contributed to your thread with various posts about how we've looked into similar strategies in the past as well. The point I'm trying to make is that approaches like yours are in the vein of well-trod efforts in the never-ending challenge of trying to find an edge against the books. Because I think edges certainly do exist (which is why I gamble in the first place), I definitely support this effort.

However, because it's been done before, I can tell you that most people trying out theories like yours back test the approach against past events so that they can assess the efficacy of their strategy. If it works, it works. For example, if Nunya's crazy roulette expert could go back over a thousand spins and show that his theory predicted winners... well, hell, man... I'd mortgage the house and drop it all on red 13, black 11, and red 4. But at the same time, there's no need to abandon all common sense. When you posted something effectively saying that you were going to risk your entire stake on an untested theory involving dog bets without first seeing that it had worked on past events... it raised an eyebrow to be sure and I'm not sure why it caused you to get upset. Neither myself nor anyone else is criticizing you for trying to beat the system, I just don't want you to risk your money needlessly. Also, bringing up the silly theories of others and saying they go unchallenged (which is, of course, untrue), is irrelevant. It's not about tearing you down or attacking you personally, my Outback-Steakhouse-eating friend, it's about collectively working out ideas that have the potential to yield results.

Long story short... no insult was intended and good luck picking them winnerz.

[fitguy67]

Long story short... no insult was intended and good luck picking them winnerz.

Yeah...WAY too much TWUIA (time with unrestricted internet access) with this job!

Long story short for me is that my focus is on the present & going forward

and that after several...at least a dozen...cards down the line...i'll have a clear-enough idea about all that is REALLY implied by how I really roll...and some clues on how to best "operationalize" it into something with data attached to it

for example...i never wait till the crazy last minutes before a market closes...most of my purchases are based more on Tuesday-ish prices...how to operationalize that? got the next 3 months to sort that out in a way that'll eventually prove to be back-"diggable"...any MMA-price databanks keep "day close" figures?...in addition to the overall close )...you gotta develop IT before you can realistically define IT in ways close enough to make a backtest "fit" IT =what you truly WOULD HAVE DONE


that being said...i'm really curious to see what comes when JimmyGunn restricts his study to 200+ dogs...

______________

results for NRL (Australian Rugby League are very clear...year in year out...betting all home-dogs 200+/away dogs 300+ is +$...but, of course, a very bumpy ride--which is why i love damping the bumps heavily with "fixed target" rather than "fixed risk" betting...using some of this to "magnify the miracles" with a full-slate of 2-leggers is a fairly-recent idea that i'm jazzed about "working the practical bugs out of"...before even thinking about how to test it)

_________________

...so bear with me guyz...i'm putting MY capital on the line to satisfy MY curiosity...and you're welcome to look over my shoulder and check in with your legitimate contributions to the "angle" that's at work here...

have been doing this with rugby, with good results...for a while and now keen to "adapt it" to MLB and MMA this year

"finding"value the passive er..."receptive" way (ie. letting the prices tell me who the likeliest candidates for being UNDER-appreciated = under-valued are...)...hmmm...think "inducing" rather than the normal "deducing" involved in traditional handicapping...

anyhow, this receptive, inductive, automatic approach is not for everyone...but it IS a viable alternate route to the same sorts of "discovered value" that may be achieved by following the more conventional active, deductive, discretionary appoach

niether are smooth paths to untold riches...both are fascinating intellectually-demanding grinds...why this "hobby" of ours is best directed by our curiosity, rather than our greed

[fitguy67]

bought up the last three 2-leg combos involving stephens...

stephens price hasn't budged since yesterdsy (and rhodes dropped a bit)...

good enough...to complete the card with 4 singles and 6 doubles

		p1	p2	p1*p2	V	T
rho*bar	AB	253	213	1004.89	19.67	197.66
rho*mus	AC	253	313	1357.89	19.67	267.1
rho*stf	AD	250	206	971	19.67	191
bar*mus	BC	213	313	1192.69	19.67	234.6
bar*stf	BD	213	206	857.78	19.67	168.73
mus*stf	CD	313	206	1163.78	19.67	228.92
					118.02	1288.01

here are the four basic singles plays

card#01	sat	28-Jun	initial values at top/card#01 chnges & new totals at bottom
10,000.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
100.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
rhodes	257.00	38.91	100.00	U
barbrena	217.00	46.08	100.00	U
stephens	210.00	47.62	100.00	U
musoke	318.00	31.45	100.00	U
∆	243.81	164.06	400.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	243.81	164.06	400.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
171	prev	21-Jun	0	lnq=	10,000.00	10,000.00	B=	10,000.00
178	this	28-Jun	7	171	100.00	100.00	t =	100.00

[fitguy67]

this completes this project's first slate of plays...

the shopping part is done...

awaiting the fighting...and "what passes for the judging of it"

good luck to everyone

[fitguy67]

*add 1 more single...and the 4 additional 2-leggers it creates

NTS = note(s) to self
*FNO (from now on=starting with the NEXT card)...wait till dimey hangs lines on the FULL card (aka. adds the earliest of the prelims)...as of now, approx 72 hours before fights...only dimey, sia and bonny have lines on the earliest fights starting with o'connell at 200edt

*check pinny, willy, laddy tomorrow am before work, see when they come online with earliest fights--help me decide for future cds when to best set (possibly standardize...better for eventual backtesting...try to find out if any databases state daily-closes as well as final close)...if so, thinking it will be wise to set the fdm-close 2-days before fight-day...cuz i prefer shopping with markets rather quiet...less "moving target" issues, especially on my piecemeal "best price on each and every 2-legger" approach to round robin schtick...i don't expect these to pay out TOO often...so when they do...make sure they're set to rain as much $ as possible outa each and every 2-fighter cloud (no one book will be best across the board...tailor made round-robins take longer, but when at least 2 of my fighters hit...i'll be glad i wasn't lazy)

*fund bonny (they've got oknl +250 vs. fdm/sia's +240)...busy tomorrow so i took fdm for both the single and the 4 doubles needed)...next card i'll have a few more books in my stable ready to ride

*FNO wait till full card available before shopping...then can lock in whole card in one session of comparison-shopping...LT, it ain't just about the winning and the losing...it's about the shopping...especially important to have several options for doubles as "just a few ticks difference" on each leg becomes "dozens of ticks" bigger payout on the combo-play...main guyz for 2-leggers: pin, fdm, sia, and $-revive willy and bonny soon as well

card#01	sat	28-Jun	initial values at top/card#01 chnges & new totals at bottom
10,000.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
100.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
rhodes	257	38.91	100.00	U	500
barbrena	217	46.08	100.00	U	2200
stephens	210	47.62	100.00	U	2359
musoke	318	31.45	100.00	U	2359
o'connell	240	41.67	100.00	U	200
∆	243.04	205.73	500.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	243.04	205.73	500.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
172	prev	21-Jun	0	lnq=	10,000.00	10,000.00	B=	10,000.00
179	this	28-Jun	7	172	100.00	100.00	t =	100.00

			p1	p2	p1*p2	V	T
	rho*bar	AB	253	213	1004.89	19.67	197.66
	rho*mus	AC	253	313	1357.89	19.67	267.1
	rho*stf	AD	250	206	971	19.67	191
	bar*mus	BC	213	313	1192.69	19.67	234.6
	bar*stf	BD	213	206	857.78	19.67	168.73
	mus*stf	CD	313	206	1163.78	19.67	228.92
	okn*rho	EA	240	250	1090	19.67	214.4
	okn*bar	EB	240	210	954	19.67	187.65
	okn*stf	EC	240	215	971	19.67	191
	okn*mus	ED	240	315	1311	19.67	257.87
	10				1087.64	216.37	2353.33

[fitguy67]

i hope the books appreciate the $126 on barbarena ($46 on the single play, and as well as the four $20 two-leggers)

NTS: ask accountant if this $126 can be written off as an actual charitable donation...as it has been revealed to me that this play, despite its apparent implied probability of about 32%...somehow actually has ZERO chance of winning...

___________________
which reminds me...new entry in that sports-betting glossary i'm compiling

God = current holder of Sports-Almanac Bif left in time-travel device at end of BTF2...or any true-copies therefrom, pertaining to any event that has "not happened yet"

[NunyaBidness]

NTS: ask accountant if this $126 can be written off as an actual charitable donation...as it has been revealed to me that this play, despite its apparent implied probability of about 32%...somehow actually has ZERO chance of winning...

I'll tell you what, I am so confident that Barbarena does not beat Ellenberger this weekend that I will ship you $10,000 via paypal if he does.

If, however, he does not win, I ask that you ship a small donation of whatever size you are comfortable with to stopas.org.

Fair?

[Vaughany]

*add 1 more single...and the 4 additional 2-leggers it creates

NTS = note(s) to self
*FNO (from now on=starting with the NEXT card)...wait till dimey hangs lines on the FULL card (aka. adds the earliest of the prelims)...as of now, approx 72 hours before fights...only dimey, sia and bonny have lines on the earliest fights starting with o'connell at 200edt

*check pinny, willy, laddy tomorrow am before work, see when they come online with earliest fights--help me decide for future cds when to best set (possibly standardize...better for eventual backtesting...try to find out if any databases state daily-closes as well as final close)...if so, thinking it will be wise to set the fdm-close 2-days before fight-day...cuz i prefer shopping with markets rather quiet...less "moving target" issues, especially on my piecemeal "best price on each and every 2-legger" approach to round robin schtick...i don't expect these to pay out TOO often...so when they do...make sure they're set to rain as much $ as possible outa each and every 2-fighter cloud (no one book will be best across the board...tailor made round-robins take longer, but when at least 2 of my fighters hit...i'll be glad i wasn't lazy)

*fund bonny (they've got oknl +250 vs. fdm/sia's +240)...busy tomorrow so i took fdm for both the single and the 4 doubles needed)...next card i'll have a few more books in my stable ready to ride

*FNO wait till full card available before shopping...then can lock in whole card in one session of comparison-shopping...LT, it ain't just about the winning and the losing...it's about the shopping...especially important to have several options for doubles as "just a few ticks difference" on each leg becomes "dozens of ticks" bigger payout on the combo-play...main guyz for 2-leggers: pin, fdm, sia, and $-revive willy and bonny soon as well

card#01	sat	28-Jun	initial values at top/card#01 chnges & new totals at bottom
10,000.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
100.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
rhodes	257	38.91	100.00	U	500
barbrena	217	46.08	100.00	U	2200
stephens	210	47.62	100.00	U	2359
musoke	318	31.45	100.00	U	2359
o'connell	240	41.67	100.00	U	200
∆	243.04	205.73	500.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	243.04	205.73	500.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
172	prev	21-Jun	0	lnq=	10,000.00	10,000.00	B=	10,000.00
179	this	28-Jun	7	172	100.00	100.00	t =	100.00

			p1	p2	p1*p2	V	T
	rho*bar	AB	253	213	1004.89	19.67	197.66
	rho*mus	AC	253	313	1357.89	19.67	267.1
	rho*stf	AD	250	206	971	19.67	191
	bar*mus	BC	213	313	1192.69	19.67	234.6
	bar*stf	BD	213	206	857.78	19.67	168.73
	mus*stf	CD	313	206	1163.78	19.67	228.92
	okn*rho	EA	240	250	1090	19.67	214.4
	okn*bar	EB	240	210	954	19.67	187.65
	okn*stf	EC	240	215	971	19.67	191
	okn*mus	ED	240	315	1311	19.67	257.87
	10				1087.64	216.37	2353.33

[fitguy67]

whatever happened to that nice man that used to use this handle...

helpful as all get out...and had the nicest avatar hugging his dog...

i bet everything turned to shit after he grew that damn pony-tail and started sleeping on the pool table

_____

MMA forum used to be lots of smart guyz...now its all smart-asses

__________

thread closed

[Keyboard Warrior]

whatever happened to that nice man that used to use this handle...

helpful as all get out...and had the nicest avatar hugging his dog...

i bet everything turned to shit after he grew that damn pony-tail and started sleeping on the pool table

_____

MMA forum used to be lots of smart guyz...now its all smart-asses

__________

thread closed

I am a Moderator. Want me to shut it down?


*********Thread Closed**************

[fitguy67]

yeah, thanks KB...it served it's purpose...clarified the basics of the m.o., i expect it'll give me the same generally-profitable but specifically-painful hi-volatiiity slot-machine ride that it's been giving me with NRL the past few seasons...

but, just as with MLB, i'll let the results speak to me for themselves as the cards/years go by...

______________

there's enough here should anyone want to emulate/tinker on their own with the basic idea

___________

Good luck to everybody on all their bets...no matter how you select them...

[Vaughany]

whatever happened to that nice man that used to use this handle...

helpful as all get out...and had the nicest avatar hugging his dog...

i bet everything turned to shit after he grew that damn pony-tail and started sleeping on the pool table

_____

MMA forum used to be lots of smart guyz...now its all smart-asses

__________

thread closed

duude, im sure what you are doing is great, there were just too many numbers for a tard like me to comprehend...hence the confused Bale!

[fitguy67]

thot' u were aiming more at my essence...

i got the same porcupine-response gene that steve-nash, one of the best baseball guys here has got...pours himself into every post, but can get pissy if he feels someone's peanut-gallerying in a mean-spirited way...

main thing i learned is trying to run your own thread is a right pain...far more fun to pop in and out of other threads, making the same sorts of contributions but as a "guest", with no strings attached...that way, i'm far less likely to take the generalized kibitzing personally...

so apologies for "snapping" like that...you're actually one of the good guys around here (BOTH of you, the friendly guy with the dog-hugging avatar you murdered and replaced...and you too--at least you don't confuse me like old 'V' with all his opening/hedging/re-opening positions on the same fight...newbs like me back then just lookin' for a bet find out you've already scored 0.8u before the goddam fight even started...now that same thread is an ongoing collection of cool imbeds with no "performance anxiety" attached to trying to keep up)

so we cool,V...wouldn't want to be cut out of your inner-circle when your next Absolute-Blowout Pound Play gets distributed

[Vaughany]

Lol I wish i could go back to those glory days of hedging and arbing to make 20 squid. Not im just a full blown degen blowing thousands like a donk!

[Educ8d Degener8]

Anyone in this thread got a data file (csv, whatever...) For this shit?

Mines well outdated, but would like to revisit some things I had been looking at.

[Das Jax]

Lol I wish i could go back to those glory days of hedging and arbing to make 20 squid. Not im just a full blown degen blowing thousands like a donk!

You should return to those glory days, Vaughany! Those amazingly ingenious breakdowns/betting strategies you used to post were a big influence in convincing me this was a game that could be beat. My heart yearns for the V of old...

[Vaughany]

You should return to those glory days, Vaughany! Those amazingly ingenious breakdowns/betting strategies you used to post were a big influence in convincing me this was a game that could be beat. My heart yearns for the V of old...

Thanks brah, Dont think if i have it in me tho, soccer betting has pretty much ruined my interest in betting! Mma is a lot tougher to cap now then it was back then as well

[Keyboard Warrior]

my database is pretty much worthless if you got web access just use bestfightodds. my setup is janked if you dont have my python scripts (which are also janked, im not a useful coder)

[Keyboard Warrior]

if you need help scraping i can give you a few resources. I dont have a pinny api key so scraping for me was a bitch and i pretty much stopped

[Keyboard Warrior]

Thanks brah, Dont think if i have it in me tho, soccer betting has pretty much ruined my interest in betting! Mma is a lot tougher to cap now then it was back then as well

i thought that too then we got Rory as an underdog and I question myself. Soccer is way too hard to beat man.

[Vaughany]

i thought that too then we got Rory as an underdog and I question myself. Soccer is way too hard to beat man.

Yee maybe, just got a pick ur spots....same with soccer, i know i could beat it if i was disciplined (ive done it countless times then just got cocky and overbet), but im just not! Some of the runs ive had with soccer betting are ridiculous, made 18 grand in space of 3 weeks earlier in year then managed to blow it all within a few weeks after!

[Keyboard Warrior]

Got to bet with those kelly steaks bro

[Vaughany]

True dat, i treated Kelly like a filthy whore and i paid the price by getting herpes for life

[Lick496]

too confusing for me, but I do mostly play dogs so im interested to see what happens

[Jim_Gunn]

I haven't had time to go through all the data again on all the +200 dogs for the last fifty UFC cards. It's a couple of hours of work even considering the info I already collected to re-calculate the results. However, I am on quite a few underdogs on these next two UFC cards, including a bunch that are reasonably close to +200, like +180, +185 and +195 and one or two that are over.

[fitguy67]

7 "singles" (ACDEFGH): -2.8342u / +7u

and a full 21-bet RR of all 2-leg "doubles" derived therefrom (for what initially was to be just a 10-bet set of doubles based on ABCDE...then "B" got scratched and "FGH" got added...ballooning the card from 5s/10d to its final state of 7s/21d)

21 "doubles": -4.1307u / +46.2069 (21 little lottery tickets, each risking -0.1967u @ avg 11-1 payout)

long and short of it, gentlemen is i need 3 of 7 guys I hand picked (precisely because they "aren't supposed to" win) to piss chalk-eaters off and do just that...and if it doesn't happen on this set of fights (and even if it does...) rinse lather repeat

if the vicissitudes of the sport push that number north of 3 (as it will from time to time...), the financial wonderfulness of the situation will increase exponentially...if less than 3...well increasingly crappy the further south we go...with a -7u floor if all the big faves win

___________
in the interests of completing the record-keeping for at least one fighting-day's (in this case a "double header") card...before i put this blog to bed...all the key bets, including actual prices and where they were booked appear below...

card#01	sat	28-Jun	initial values at top/card#01 chnges & new totals at bottom
10,000.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
100.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
rhodes	257.00	38.91	100.00	U	500	pin	A
musoke	318.00	31.45	100.00	U	2400	pin	C
stephens	210.00	47.62	100.00	U	2430	pin	D
o'connell	240.00	41.67	100.00	U	200	sia	E
deLima	235.18	42.52	100.00	U	300	mbk	F
howell	200.00	50.00	100.00		2000	tsf	G
gibson	320.03	31.25	100.00		2100	sia	H
∆	246.98	283.42	700.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	246.98	283.42	700.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
172	prev	21-Jun	0	lnq=	10,000.00	10,000.00	B=	10,000.00
179	this	28-Jun	7	172	100.00	100.00	t =	100.00

f1	f2		p1	p2	p1*p2	V	T	book
deLima	rhodes	FA	235	226	992.1	19.67	195.15	pin
deLima	musoke	FC	235	319	1303.65	19.67	256.43	pin
deLima	stephens	FD	235	203	915.05	19.67	179.99	pin
deLima	o'connell	FE	235	250	1072.5	19.67	210.96	pin
deLima	howell	FG	225	300	1200	19.67	236.04	tsf
deLima	gibson	FH	225	200	875	19.67	172.11	tsf
howell	rhodes	GA	300	240	1260	19.67	247.84	tsf
howell	musoke	GC	320	300	1580	19.67	310.79	sia
howell	stephens	GD	320	200	1160	19.67	228.17	sia
howell	o'connell	GE	300	250	1300	19.67	255.71	tsf
howell	gibson	GH	320	195	1139	19.67	224.04	sia
gibson	rhodes	HA	200	240	920	19.67	180.96	tsf
gibson	musoke	HC	200	300	1100	19.67	216.37	tsf
gibson	stephens	HD	200	200	800	19.67	157.36	tsf
gibson	o'connell	HE	200	250	950	19.67	186.87	tsf
rhodes	musoke	AC	253	313	1357.89	19.67	267.1	pin
rhodes	stephens	AD	250	206	971	19.67	191	pin
rhodes	o'connell	AE	241	250	1093.5	19.67	215.09	pin
musoke	stephens	CD	313	206	1163.78	19.67	228.92	pin
musoke	o'connell	CE	313	250	1345.5	19.67	264.66	pin
stephens	o'connell	DE	212	250	992	19.67	195.13	pin
		21			1118.62	413.07	4620.69

"Anticipating the Smart-Assery" Department
if howell gets (or has already been) scratched IDGARA (i don't give a rat's ass!)...as any single-bet on a "scratchee" will be refunded...and any 2-leggers will simply become a small extra stake on the other leg...better to buy'em all up according to the dictates of the rules you're working with...than risk the of finding yourself without a ticket you should've had on one of those rare somethings that actually hits (remember the "Jesus" analogy: we know not the hour nor the day at which the dogs surprise us)...i always prefer the safe side of Murphy's Law, thank you very much

Final note-to-self: big thing i learned from this first whack at full-compliance dog-hunting
best to wait as long as possible before one major all-in-one shopping session (but give myself at least a few hours cuz piecing together a well-priced parlay card is time consuming)...this will allow for most of the scratches to sort themselves out fully...AND for the full card (including the earliest of prelims) to finally be available at most of the core books

[NunyaBidness]

I haven't had time to go through all the data again on all the +200 dogs for the last fifty UFC cards. It's a couple of hours of work even considering the info I already collected to re-calculate the results. However, I am on quite a few underdogs on these next two UFC cards, including a bunch that are reasonably close to +200, like +180, +185 and +195 and one or two that are over.

Step up your excel game, brah.

[fitguy67]

"... your husband's idea?!!" said the elderly man, as he slid on the second leg of his uniform with the crisp new bill audibly crackling in the right pocket as it slid up his thigh... the scent of a young woman filling his nostrils for the first time in decades...and the faint taste of maple syrup still registering sweetly from the corner of his mouth


"yeah...when i told him it's the mailman's last day and asked what i should do...he said "ahhh...fukk'm...give him 20 bucks"...

"the pancake breakfast was my idea though..."
_____________

should/could have easily got 1 of the three from the early card...but it's all in the game...why i like to think of matches/games etc...as the draw of a card from a well-shuffled deck...

(success in this hobby depends FAR more on seeing this as an exercise in appiied statistics/probability than a challenge to your specific knowledge of whatever events you choose to bet on)...

in this case, JQKA we win...everything else we lose
all the drama/robberies etc. in the buildup to the grading of the bet are the equivalent of a very very slow draw of the card, involving many many people...
because in the end, over the haul there's about a 30% chance that the sort of fighter we're zero-ing in on...actually wins (which is appropriate to the fleet average north of the +234 that the selection method facilitates/all but guarantees)...
stir in bet-size discipline, patience, and a curiosity- (not greed-) driven approach to the undertaking and this project is just dandy as a potentially profitable AND definitely diverting pastime...