WSOF 10: Branch vs. Taylor (June 21, 2014)

[NunyaBidness]

Not likely to be answered any time soon... I have no answers...LOL.. Hell, I don't even know what "Joffrey of house Baratheon" means or refers too????.. That's foreign language stuff to my eyes...

Jesus Christ. I've chosen to preemptively forgive you for all your future MMA Commentary, but being as this forum is about

1) Humor
2) Premium Television
3) Cooking

Your inability to recognize Joffrey of the Houses Baratheon and Lannister, the First of His Name, King of the Andals and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms, and Protector of the Realm, is inforgivable.

You are approaching a soft ban, sir. Do be careful. Maybe less posting, more HBO Go?

[NunyaBidness]

When the odds go up to around -500 for a fighter you can't play that straight.. I would think you would rather stay conservative and parlay that with one or two other fights ya really like..

Parlays increase your variance and are therefore LESS conservative than SU plays.

There are three good reasons to use parlays, staying conservative is not one of them.

[JIBBBY]

you are paying the same price whether its parlayed or not.

But with a parlay bet it's a multiplier.. Little money risked to win alot, compared to trying to win with straight bet plays and risking a very lot on each bet to win a little..

Am I missing something here fellas, and am I drunk already or something? So I'm reading a parlay bet is a suckers bet among pro and or winning calculated gamblers?

[JIBBBY]

Jesus Christ. I've chosen to preemptively forgive you for all your future MMA Commentary, but being as this forum is about

1) Humor
2) Premium Television
3) Cooking

Your inability to recognize Joffrey of the Houses Baratheon and Lannister, the First of His Name, King of the Andals and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms, and Protector of the Realm, is inforgivable.

You are approaching a soft ban, sir. Do be careful. Maybe less posting, more HBO Go?

Lol.. I got nor the time or patience for silly tv shows such as these Nunya... I'd rather be watching Legacy now on Axs..

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Lol.. I got nor the time or patience for silly tv shows such as these Nunya... I'd rather be watching Legacy now on Axs..

Oh no you didn't! You crossed the line Jibster! Are you saying that you have never heard of Game of Thrones?

I think a soft ban is in order.

[Wilbo86]

But with a parlay bet it's a multiplier.. Little money risked to win alot, compared to trying to win with straight bet plays and risking a very lot on each bet to win a little..

Am I missing something here fellas, and am I drunk already or something? So I'm reading a parlay bet is a suckers bet among pro and or winning calculated gamblers?

Parlays are very useful if you know how and when to use them, if you don't they're very dangerous.

A good capper, I.e someone with a good read on expected value, will probably make money regardless but if you know what you're doing you can use parlays to minimize downside and maximize upside risk.

[JIBBBY]

Oh no you didn't! You crossed the line Jibster! Are you saying that you have never heard of Game of Thrones?

I think a soft ban is in order.

I've heard of game of thrones Ronny.. More into the Dexter shows and stuff like that on cable.. 24 is good too... Never gave game of thrones a try.. It's getting the hype so it must be good...

[Green boy]

Parlays are very useful if you know how and when to use them, if you don't they're very dangerous.

A good capper, I.e someone with a good read on expected value, will probably make money regardless but if you know what you're doing you can use parlays to minimize downside and maximize upside risk.

Can you go more into details on how to minimize risk when making parlays? I like making parlays, but I've always thought they were about as safe as buying a lotto ticket.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I've heard of game of thrones Ronny.. More into the Dexter shows and stuff like that on cable.. 24 is good too... Never gave game of thrones a try.. It's getting the hype so it must be good...

24 is pure military industrial complex/government propaganda! It's absolute garbage!

[NunyaBidness]

Parlays are very useful if you know how and when to use them, if you don't they're very dangerous.

A good capper, I.e someone with a good read on expected value, will probably make money regardless but if you know what you're doing you can use parlays to minimize downside and maximize upside risk.

But that's not what parlays do.

Parlays tend to cause punters to make mistakes in betting, generally by underbetting favorites, (but others as well).

Proper reasons to bet parlays are:

1) To increase your bet limits. (Example, bodog released Dantas over Villa at +285. After maxing it outright, I then added it to as many parlays as possible, even adding it to -EV legs, simply because I believed the edge to be very high)

2) To hide the fact that you're sharp. Most squares bet a lot of parlays in order to "spin up" a big win. Most sharps do not do that. You probably should bet many parlays in order to stay under the radar.

3) To increase your volatility. If your bets are positive expectation, the EV of the parlay becomes multiplicative. Your ideal betting strategy would be to parlay every bet you've ever made round-robined in every possible combination with every other bet you've ever made. In this hypothetical scenario you would lose almost every bet you made but with occasional gigantic winners.

Parlays are definitely a positive play to make, if you're a winning better. If you're losing they only increase your variance. They do not in any case, "reduce the juice", "lower your variance", or any of the other things squares like to throw out.

[JIBBBY]

24 is pure military industrial complex/government propaganda! It's absolute garbage!

It's got twists and turn and I like Sutherland as an actor... The show knda reminds me of Born Identity or something like that but toned down.. Entertain value I think it's fun, but I don't buy into any political crap that the show projects..

[Wilbo86]

But that's not what parlays do.

Parlays tend to cause punters to make mistakes in betting, generally by underbetting favorites, (but others as well).

Proper reasons to bet parlays are:

1) To increase your bet limits. (Example, bodog released Dantas over Villa at +285. After maxing it outright, I then added it to as many parlays as possible, even adding it to -EV legs, simply because I believed the edge to be very high)

2) To hide the fact that you're sharp. Most squares bet a lot of parlays in order to "spin up" a big win. Most sharps do not do that. You probably should bet many parlays in order to stay under the radar.

3) To increase your volatility. If your bets are positive expectation, the EV of the parlay becomes multiplicative. Your ideal betting strategy would be to parlay every bet you've ever made round-robined in every possible combination with every other bet you've ever made. In this hypothetical scenario you would lose almost every bet you made but with occasional gigantic winners.

Parlays are definitely a positive play to make, if you're a winning better. If you're losing they only increase your variance. They do not in any case, "reduce the juice", "lower your variance", or any of the other things squares like to throw out.

I get the first two, and the last part. A little hazy on the 3 though but I think we're talking about the same thing.

Example, you have a bnuch of +EV plays for a card but would need to risk upwards of 30/40/50% of your bankroll on straight plays. If you use the same plays in a multitude of 2,3 or 4 leg parlays you decrease your exposure and maintain a similiar EV over the long term. To many legs and the paydays become too infreuent and detimental to BR management.

Are we talking about the same thing? Your hypothetical you've taken it to the extreme end of long term.

[JIBBBY]

But that's not what parlays do.

Parlays tend to cause punters to make mistakes in betting, generally by underbetting favorites, (but others as well).

Proper reasons to bet parlays are:

1) To increase your bet limits. (Example, bodog released Dantas over Villa at +285. After maxing it outright, I then added it to as many parlays as possible, even adding it to -EV legs, simply because I believed the edge to be very high)

2) To hide the fact that you're sharp. Most squares bet a lot of parlays in order to "spin up" a big win. Most sharps do not do that. You probably should bet many parlays in order to stay under the radar.

3) To increase your volatility. If your bets are positive expectation, the EV of the parlay becomes multiplicative. Your ideal betting strategy would be to parlay every bet you've ever made round-robined in every possible combination with every other bet you've ever made. In this hypothetical scenario you would lose almost every bet you made but with occasional gigantic winners.

Parlays are definitely a positive play to make, if you're a winning better. If you're losing they only increase your variance. They do not in any case, "reduce the juice", "lower your variance", or any of the other things squares like to throw out.

Good stuff and I agree...

Flying under the radar is the tough part when you win and build an account off a small initial deposit, you cash out, cash out again, cash out, cash out again, eventually lose the small balance you carry then deposit small again... Then you hope your account stays in good status to continue on...

I got shut down with one on line bookie already.. Had 1400 bucks with the bookie in balance pending for payout.. Tried to cash out, call, press and nothing.. Months past.. Finally got like 200 bucks worth of paper coupons in the mail. I laughed.... I want to avoid this from happening again so I intentionally keep lower balances.

Please share more ways to fly under the radar.. That I have no idea on how to do???

I cash out often and keep lower balances in all accounts more then I would like.. This is why my unit bets seem high.. If I lose the bank roll then I deposit off bank card and feel good about it.. That's how I fly under the radar when I go on long winning streaks.... Continued small deposits when low balance or zero'd out....

Really not even sure if all that matters, if you're consistently winning on average more then losing month to month and up on the bookie year after year then I'm sure that eventually shows up regardless and then you get tagged.???????

[NunyaBidness]

I get the first two, and the last part. A little hazy on the 3 though but I think we're talking about the same thing.

Example, you have a bnuch of +EV plays for a card but would need to risk upwards of 30/40/50% of your bankroll on straight plays. If you use the same plays in a multitude of 2,3 or 4 leg parlays you decrease your exposure and maintain a similiar EV over the long term. To many legs and the paydays become too infreuent and detimental to BR management.

Are we talking about the same thing? Your hypothetical you've taken it to the extreme end of long term.

Yes, I realize my hypothetical is ridiculous, but its the way my aspy brain works. Sort of like the Monty Hall Paradox, tough to convince people when its three doors, but when you use 100 it becomes immediately obvious.

Decreasing exposure is the problem I think most people have with parlays, and furthermore having equivilant exposure on dissimilar legs. For example you may have a parlay on a -400 and a -300 favorite, that you think both win at an 85% rate. Throwing them in a parlay rather than betting them straight up is reducing the increased exposure you should have on the -300 favorite.

[NunyaBidness]

Please share more ways to fly under the radar.. That I have no idea on how to do???

Staying under the radar is tough, and I wish I knew in the beginning what I know now. I have very few books left that I can get real bets in.

The problem is, a lot of the things that keep you under the radar also cost you money.

Here's a list:

1) Bet parlays.
2) Bet every Major event. If you don't bet the superbowl, the books know you're at a minimum a lineshopper.
3) Don't bet sports that aren't in your country. Americans betting tiny league soccer games are a quick way to get shut down.
4) Don't max your bets.
5) Don't bet obviously bad lines.
6) Mix in lots of straight bets, if you're hamming all props, they get sick of you fast.
7) Most importantly, don't cash out! Many, many, books, even major ones do not audit your account until you start withdrawing. Huge mistake on their side. I hadn't cashed out from a major book for several years, but had built the balance up to a point where I didn't feel comfortable having it online. Requested a withdrawal, very next day, my limits are cut to shit. Another reason why its important to be properly rolled.

[Wilbo86]

Yes, I realize my hypothetical is ridiculous, but its the way my aspy brain works. Sort of like the Monty Hall Paradox, tough to convince people when its three doors, but when you use 100 it becomes immediately obvious.

Decreasing exposure is the problem I think most people have with parlays, and furthermore having equivilant exposure on dissimilar legs. For example you may have a parlay on a -400 and a -300 favorite, that you think both win at an 85% rate. Throwing them in a parlay rather than betting them straight up is reducing the increased exposure you should have on the -300 favorite.

Wouldn't the addition edge on the -300 be factored into your Kelly calc and give you right total exposure?

[JIBBBY]

Staying under the radar is tough, and I wish I knew in the beginning what I know now. I have very few books left that I can get real bets in.

The problem is, a lot of the things that keep you under the radar also cost you money.

Here's a list:

7) Most importantly don't cash out as many, many, books, even major ones do not audit your account until you start withdrawing. Huge mistake on their side. I hadn't cashed out from a major book for several years, but had built the balance up to a point where I didn't feel comfortable having it online. Requested a withdrawal, very next day, my limits are cut to shit. Another reason why its important to be properly rolled.

That's just crazy but makes sense on the auditing part.. Thanks for sharing Nunya...

Cutting limits the next day blows, I'd think they'd cut you off completely on you next big payout request if up big again, no?..

Anyways, that would break my heart if I built up a huge account balance on line, requested a huge payout and never saw a penny of it.. NO PAYOUTS you say.. Hmmm? Gonna be hard to do...

So I assume Nunya even though they cut your limits the next day, did they still honor your big payout request and pay in full?

[NunyaBidness]

So I assume Nunya even though they cut your limits the next day, did they still honor your big payout request and pay in full?

Heh, not really, but not their fault. Processor decided to cut me off. Had to catch a flight so no time to sort it out.

I've been stiffed by plenty of books though. Part of the game if you've been doing this long enough.

Just watch out, when SBR starts shilling a book, you know its going belly up.

[NunyaBidness]

NO PAYOUTS you say.. Hmmm?

Like I said, a lot of this stuff is suboptimal. Generally I built up accounts until they shut me off and then slowly drain them out.

I've been requesting max checks from sportsbook for years, hoping to finally have it emptied by January.

Another book shut me off a year ago, and pays me $500/month, should be done with them in 2015.

Gotta keep a lot of notes. I'm pretty forgetful. In 2008 I got an email from a poker room I hadn't played at in a few years that I still had $4000 with them. Oops. Sort of like finding $5 in your jacket in elementary school!

[NunyaBidness]

Wouldn't the addition edge on the -300 be factored into your Kelly calc and give you right total exposure?

It would be factored into the total price if we make the assumption that its one event; but thats not really what a parlay is.

[Wilbo86]

It would be factored into the total price if we make the assumption that its one event; but thats not really what a parlay is.

True. Hmm well in that case I might be doing something wrong. You got any good sources to help me get my head around this?

[JIBBBY]

Like I said, a lot of this stuff is suboptimal. Generally I built up accounts until they shut me off and then slowly drain them out.

I've been requesting max checks from sportsbook for years, hoping to finally have it emptied by January.

Another book shut me off a year ago, and pays me $500/month, should be done with them in 2015.

Gotta keep a lot of notes. I'm pretty forgetful. In 2008 I got an email from a poker room I hadn't played at in a few years that I still had $4000 with them. Oops. Sort of like finding $5 in your jacket in elementary school!

Received and understood Nunya.. Love to sit down with you and pick your brain over a few cold ones.. Oh well...

Anyways, so you basically just roll from reputable online bookie to online bookie as you continue to win and get cut off. Thankfully there are alot of online book joints to work over I suppose... LOL.. Good problem to have..

When all else fails, I guess you can enlist friends and family to open accounts up in their names for you to play off of. Move to Vegas and hire runners..

[JIBBBY]

I didn't do an exhaustive tape study for this card, but I made some plays for action based on what I remember from these fighters previous fights.

WSOF 10 Risk $382.21

Jesse Taylor (-160) vs David Branch $56.00 for $35.00
David Branch/Jesse Taylor Over 4½ (-150) $45.00 for $30.00
Rick Glenn/Georgi Karakhanyan Under 3½ (-150) $45.00 for $30.00
Emi Fujino/Jessica Aguilar Over 4½ (-195) $58.50 for $30.00
Tyson Griffin (+130) vs Luiz Firmino $25.00 for $32.50
Nick LoBosco/Lance Palmer Over 1½ (-160) $48.00 for $30.00
Dave Huckaba (+170) vs Derrick Mehmen $14.71 for $25.00

Parlay:
Georgi Karakhanyan (-420) + Jessica Aguilar (-600) $90.00 for $40.00

I like your Over Round bets Jimmy.. I'm lining up to play 2 of those same 3...

Not so sure about the Jesse Taylor/David Branch over though.... Strong grapplers with some submission skills, and both can punch pretty hard that is if Branch can keep the fight standing.. Not sure I see this one going the distance... Jessie Taylor is a heavy muscled guy and 5 rounds is a long time to go..

I'm gonna take the Tyson Griffin/Luiz over instead..

[mmaed]

you are paying the same price whether its parlayed or not.

Not on 5dimes because you won't be able to parlay the reduced juice.

[mmaed]

Like I said, a lot of this stuff is suboptimal. Generally I built up accounts until they shut me off and then slowly drain them out.

I've been requesting max checks from sportsbook for years, hoping to finally have it emptied by January.

Another book shut me off a year ago, and pays me $500/month, should be done with them in 2015.

Gotta keep a lot of notes. I'm pretty forgetful. In 2008 I got an email from a poker room I hadn't played at in a few years that I still had $4000 with them. Oops. Sort of like finding $5 in your jacket in elementary school!

Do you gamble for a living?

[Bumdeal]

so far for me

$140.00 $100.00 Pending 6/21/14 11:59pm WSOF Fighting 5002 Jesse Taylor -140* vs David Branch


$50.00 $91.07 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/21/14 11:30pm WSOF Fighting 5102 Georgi Karakhanyan -420* vs Rick Glenn
Pending 6/21/14 10:00pm WSOF Fighting 5401 Nick LoBosco/Lance Palmer Over 1½ -170*
Pending 6/21/14 6:00pm WSOF Fighting 5502 Derrick Mehmen -230* vs Dave Huckaba


$100.00 $105.84 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 6/21/14 11:30pm WSOF Fighting 5102 Georgi Karakhanyan -420* vs Rick Glenn
Pending 6/21/14 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 5202 Jessica Aguilar -630* vs Emi Fujino
Pending 6/21/14 6:00pm WSOF Fighting 5502 Derrick Mehmen -230* vs Dave Huckaba

[Vaughany]

Do you gamble for a living?

Is the Pope catholic... and making the world safe for pedophiles?

[cheeese]

Y Monty Hall Paradox

Ha, I remember watching deal or no deal wondering if anyone would have the stones to switch at the end

[mmaed]

Is the Pope catholic... and making the world safe for pedophiles?

Thanks.

[rosietop]

Can you go more into details on how to minimize risk when making parlays? I like making parlays, but I've always thought they were about as safe as buying a lotto ticket.

to be completely honest the only reason parlays have had a bad rep is because traditionally betting parlays in traditional sports like nba,nfl,soccer, is a very bad move in terms of ev, however parlays are actually much better for a sport like mma and can be extremely beneficial if used correctly.

[JIBBBY]

^ I always used the parlay bets in MMA and Baseball and they have worked out well for me over the years (2 or 3 teamers).. The odds get high on the favorites in those sports..

Both those 2 sports I tend to do the best with though.. Football and Hoop I might try the parlay or teaser bets using the money line plays to up the odds of cashing out on the bet ticket..

Still don't like to play the parlays on Football or Hoop period.. Then again I'm not that good at those 2 sports to begin with even though I love to watch and follow them..


Too bad the WSOF prelims fights aren't up on the board at 5 dimes or Bravado

[Jim_Gunn]

Too bad the WSOF prelims fights aren't up on the board at 5 dimes or Bravado

I wish. I would have put a unit on Ashlee Evans-Smith.

[Skel]

Valiev is an absolute killer.

[Jim_Gunn]

Huckaba survives the first round. Can't throw a lazy leg kick like that and get taken down.

[Bumdeal]

More takedowns please